Malthus is Still Wrong     We Can Feed a World of 9 BillionPrabhu PingaliDeputy DirectorAgriculture DevelopmentPlenary Pre...
The spectre of a Malthusian crisis       The UN’s medium growth scenario has population increasing by 50%        between ...
Rising food prices have further                encouraged Neo-Malthusian                          thinkingOctober 23, 2011...
We’ve been there beforeOctober 23, 2011                      © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation   |
Recent Trends in Developing World Crop Productivity Growth Production:    •   Cereal output in developing countries has g...
Growth in food production outpaced growth in population                 in all regions but Africa              FAO food pr...
Evidence on factors contributing to productivitygrowth         100%          90%                    Ag R&D & extension    ...
Looking Ahead: Getting the demand            side rightOctober 23, 2011        © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation   |
Percent change in monthly per capita cereal consumption      in rural and urban India: 1993/94 and 2004/05            Sour...
Diets in developing countries will continue todiversify...                   Source: FAO, World Agriculture to 2015/2030Oc...
... With rises in income leading to increaseddemand for meat and a concomitant rise in feedMeat consumption more than doub...
Developing countries are spending a growingshare of GDP on food importsShare of food imports in GDP in developing countrie...
Processed and high value products areincreasing in share of food trade                               Source: Regmi et. al....
BioFuel demand – the focus is          shifting away from food grains to              other sources of biomassOctober 23, ...
Can rising food/feed demand beaccommodated without a significantincrease in the land area cultivated?October 23, 2011     ...
Land expansion vs. intensificationThe Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) study published in 2002 (Fischer etal., 2002), co...
Significant opportunities to boost productivity                              Cropland distribution and average annual yiel...
Can the physical constraints to        productivity growth be overcome?October 23, 2011               © 2010 Bill & Melind...
Land quality: SSA and SA are plagued by severely degraded soils                                                           ...
Soil health is a key enabler of sustainedproductivity improvements          No matter how effectively other conditions are...
The Brazilian Cerrado case highlights howsustained soil management can recover fertility                                  ...
Water scarcity will be a growing constraint Sectoral competition is  increasing for blue water  withdrawals for human  us...
Water use can be better managed                    Water withdrawal and consumption by regionOctober 23, 2011             ...
Managing Rainfed Agriculture    Changing cropping patterns    Improved tolerance to drought and submergence    Increase...
Climate change adaptation & mitigation   practices are compatible with sustainable   intensification                      ...
What should we do: Policy Actions    Keep the focus on agriculture and invest in smallholder     productivity growth    ...
Malthus will be proven                     wrong once again                       because of our                     ingen...
Thank You© 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. All Rights Reserved.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is a registered trade...
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Malthus is still Wrong - we can feed a world of 9 billion

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Malthus is still wrong - we can feed a world of 9 billion. Plenary presentation to the Asian society of Agricultural Economists. Hanoi, Vietnam, October 13th, 2011.

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Malthus is still Wrong - we can feed a world of 9 billion

  1. 1. Malthus is Still Wrong We Can Feed a World of 9 BillionPrabhu PingaliDeputy DirectorAgriculture DevelopmentPlenary Presentation to the 7th International Conference of the AsianSociety of Agricultural Economists, held in Hanoi, VietnamOctober 13th, 2011Views expressed are personal
  2. 2. The spectre of a Malthusian crisis The UN’s medium growth scenario has population increasing by 50% between 2000 and 2050, from 6 billion to about 9 billion people. When coupled with significant nutritional improvements for the 2.1 billion people currently living on less than $2/day (World Bank 2008), this translates into a very substantial rise in the demand for agricultural production. FAO estimates the increased demand at 70 percent of current production, with a figure nearer 100% in the developing countries (Bruinsma 2009). At the same time, the growing use of biomass for energy generation has introduced an important new source of industrial demand in agricultural markets (Energy Information Agency 2010). October 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  3. 3. Rising food prices have further encouraged Neo-Malthusian thinkingOctober 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  4. 4. We’ve been there beforeOctober 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  5. 5. Recent Trends in Developing World Crop Productivity Growth Production: • Cereal output in developing countries has grown 2.8 percent annually for three decades Productivity • Yields, not area, were responsible for growth • TFP grew along with yields FAO food production index – total, per hectare, and per capita (1963=100)Note: Numbers in parentheses are average annual growth rates for 1963–2000 - Estimates based on FAOStats and Hayami (2005)Source: International Water Management Institute analysis done for the Comprehensive Assessment for Water Management inAgriculture using the Watersim model, Chapter 2
  6. 6. Growth in food production outpaced growth in population in all regions but Africa FAO food production index – total, per hectare, and per capita (1963=100)Note: Numbers in parentheses are average annual growth rates for 1963–2000 - Estimates based on FAOStats and Hayami (2005)Source: International Water Management Institute analysis done for the Comprehensive Assessment for Water Management inAgriculture using the Watersim model, Chapter 2
  7. 7. Evidence on factors contributing to productivitygrowth 100% 90% Ag R&D & extension 80% Inputs Delivery - Ag. 70% credit/insurance Inputs Delivery - Fertilizer, 60% pesticide, seed, machinery, etc Infrastructure - Electricity, 50% health/education, telecomm 40% Infrastructure - Irrigation 30% Infrastructure - Rural Roads 20% Policies/institutions - 10% Macro/sectoral/legal reforms 0%October 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 7
  8. 8. Looking Ahead: Getting the demand side rightOctober 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  9. 9. Percent change in monthly per capita cereal consumption in rural and urban India: 1993/94 and 2004/05 Source: NSSO Reports: Household Consumption Expenditure in India
  10. 10. Diets in developing countries will continue todiversify... Source: FAO, World Agriculture to 2015/2030October 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  11. 11. ... With rises in income leading to increaseddemand for meat and a concomitant rise in feedMeat consumption more than doubles in East Asia by 2050Feed demand drives future demand for grains October 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  12. 12. Developing countries are spending a growingshare of GDP on food importsShare of food imports in GDP in developing countries, 1970-2001
  13. 13. Processed and high value products areincreasing in share of food trade Source: Regmi et. al., 2001, USDA
  14. 14. BioFuel demand – the focus is shifting away from food grains to other sources of biomassOctober 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  15. 15. Can rising food/feed demand beaccommodated without a significantincrease in the land area cultivated?October 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  16. 16. Land expansion vs. intensificationThe Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) study published in 2002 (Fischer etal., 2002), combining soil, terrain and climate characteristics with cropproduction requirements and various technological levels, estimated that:• About 30% of the world’s land surface, or 4.2 billion ha is suitable to some extent for rainfed agriculture.• Of this area some 1.7 billion ha are already under cultivation.• This would leave a gross global balance of 2.5 billion ha of land suitable for cultivation.But this favorable impression must be qualified by a number of considerations• Other land uses (urban areas, protected areas, forests)• Uneven geographical distribution• Biotic, abiotic, socioeconomic and farm management constraintsThere are significant opportunities for intensification of land alreadyunder cultivation.October 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  17. 17. Significant opportunities to boost productivity Cropland distribution and average annual yield Source: West. P.C, et al., Nov 2010, “Trading Carbon for Food: Global comparison of carbon stocks vs. crop yields on agricultural land”. PNAS, vol. 107, no. 46, 19647October 23, 2011 © 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  18. 18. Can the physical constraints to productivity growth be overcome?October 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  19. 19. Land quality: SSA and SA are plagued by severely degraded soils In Bihar, India soil NPK depletion occurs at 80 kg / ha / year3 Over the last 30 years, African soils lost on average 22 kg of N, 2.5 kg of P, and 15 kg of K per ha of cultivated land – an annual loss equivalent to U.S. $4B in fertilizer.1 83% of land in SSA is problematic for In Bangladesh, declines in soil agriculture: 55% is fertility lead to annual losses of classified as ~4M tons of cereal production, unsustainable for crop valued at US ~$566M4 production, and 28% is classified as medium or Very degraded soil Stable soil low potential2 Degraded soil Without vegetation Humans cause erosion at 10 to 15 times faster rates than natural processes. Over the past 500M years, soil eroded at an average of one inch per 1,000 years. Today, it takes just 40 years to erode one inch.5Source: 1. Sanchez 2002; 2. AGRA Soil Health in Africa; 3. R. Lal 2009; 4. Hasan and Alam, 2006; 5. Wilkinson 2004. Map: UNEP October 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  20. 20. Soil health is a key enabler of sustainedproductivity improvements No matter how effectively other conditions are remedied, per capita food production in Africa will continue to decrease unless soil fertility depletion is effectively addressed. – Sanchez and Jama 2002 Soil health impacts baseline yields and enhances the effectiveness of inputs Poor Soil Health Good Soil Health Maize yield response to various nutrient combinationsSource: S. Zingore 2011 October 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  21. 21. The Brazilian Cerrado case highlights howsustained soil management can recover fertility With the intensification of production, Brazil has continued to achieve increasing yields without significantly increasing land under cultivation No-till farming on Intervention Lime over 50% of Intercropping application & land to leave of nitrogen- acid-tolerant more crop fixing legumes seed varieties residue in fields Constraint High soil Low organic Low acidity matter nitrogenSource: The Economist; Dierolf 2000. October 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  22. 22. Water scarcity will be a growing constraint Sectoral competition is increasing for blue water withdrawals for human uses Direct and indirect negative effects have been well documented, these include: • Declining water tables • Drainage of wetlands; • Nutrient loading of surface water and groundwater; • Salinization and waterlogging of soils; • Agrochemical contamination; • Siltation of rivers.
  23. 23. Water use can be better managed Water withdrawal and consumption by regionOctober 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  24. 24. Managing Rainfed Agriculture  Changing cropping patterns  Improved tolerance to drought and submergence  Increased use of hybrids  Better land & water management practicesOctober 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  25. 25. Climate change adaptation & mitigation practices are compatible with sustainable intensification Demand is growing for carbon  Conservation tillage systems credits but agriculture is only 3% of market share  Drought and water management practices  Incentives for moving agriculture out of marginal areas  Market mechanisms for carbon sequestrationOctober 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  26. 26. What should we do: Policy Actions  Keep the focus on agriculture and invest in smallholder productivity growth  Technology, including biotechnology, will be an important part of the solution  Policies (including trade policies) that enable and encourage smallholder productivity growth are crucial  Pay particular attention to stress prone environments  Invest in a long term strategy for biofuels that does not rely on increased use of food grainsOctober 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  27. 27. Malthus will be proven wrong once again because of our ingenuity and our ability to deal with resource scarcity through technical innovation and focused policy changeOctober 23, 2011 © 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  28. 28. Thank You© 2010 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. All Rights Reserved.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is a registered trademark in the United States and other countries.

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