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PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012
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PotashCorp - BMO Capital Markets Farm to Market Conference - May 15, 2012

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  • 1. Bill DoylePresident and CEOBMO Capital Markets2012 Farm to Market ConferenceMay 15, 2012 PotashCorp.com
  • 2. Forward-Looking StatementsThis presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements).These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements thatare not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to foreignexchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effectivetax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currentlyavailable, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from thoseexpressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect toforeign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, andeffective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets;costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and oceanfreight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions andchanges in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations with major markets; the Europeansovereign debt crisis and the recent downgrade of US sovereign debt and political concerns over budgetary matters;timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes incapital markets and corresponding effects on the company’s investments; unexpected or adverse weather conditions;changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows;imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or governmentinvestigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; changes in and theeffects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; andearnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates.Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011 under thecaptions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities andExchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given onlyas at the date of this presentation and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-lookingstatements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
  • 3. Grain and Oilseed Production By Major MarketRising Crop Production Anticipated in Key Potash Consuming RegionsMillion Tonnes China India Other Asia North America Latin America 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015F 2020FSource: FAO, USDA, PotashCorp
  • 4. 2011/12 Stocks-to-Use Compared to Historical AverageGrowing Demand Has Pressured Supplies For Most Major Crop Commodities Percent of 25-Year Average 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Soybeans Wheat Palm Oil Sugar Rice CornSource: USDA
  • 5. Agriculture Commodity PricesHigher Crop Prices Reflect Tight SuppliesApril 2012 - Percentage Price Increase Compared to 2002-2011 Average Palm Oil Corn Sugar Soybean Coffee Rice Wheat 0 20 40 60 80 100Source: World Bank
  • 6. Potash Cost Percentage of Crop RevenueCosts Expected To Remain in Historical Range US Corn Brazil SoybeanPercentage Percentage 7% $4.00/bushel 16% $10.00/bushel $5.00/bushel $12.00/bushel 6% 14% $6.00/bushel $14.00/bushel 12% 5% 10% Historical 4% Range* 8% Historical 3% Range* 6% 2% 4% 1% 2% 0% 0% 400 500 600 700 400 500 600 700 FOB SK Mine Price ($/MT) FOB SK Mine Price ($/MT) * Excludes 10-year minimum and maximum pointsSource: USDA, CONAB, PotashCorp
  • 7. Corn Application Rates and Yields Higher Crop Yields Required: Balanced Fertilizer Application Part of the Solution 1 Corn Fertilizer Application Rates Corn Yields Relative to the USPounds/acre US Yield (2007-2011 Average) = 100 250 N P2O5 K2O 100 200 80 150 60 100 40 50 20 0 0 US China Brazil India US China Brazil India Source: USDA, IFA, PotashCorp
  • 8. Potash Market Overview
  • 9. World Potash Fertilizer Consumption Growth Significant Consumption Growth in Large Developing MarketsPercent Annualized Growth (2001-2011) Million Tonnes K2O Latin America Other Asia 7 35 China India North America Other 6 30 5 25 4 20 3 15 2 10 1 5 0 0 Source: Fertecon
  • 10. Potash Shipments by Selected MarketDespite Global Consumption Growth, Shipments Have Been UnevenMillion Tonnes KCl Shipments Shipment Range 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 10 11 12F 10 11 12F 10 11 12F 10 11 12F 10 11 12F China India Other Asia Latin North America AmericaSource: Fertecon, IFA, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
  • 11. World Potash ShipmentsExpect Long-term Demand Will Be In-line With Historical TrendMillion Tonnes KCl Shipment Range Shipments 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F 2014F 2016F Shipment range based on 3.0-3.5% annualized demand growth rate (2002-2016).Source: Fertecon, IFA, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
  • 12. World Potash Supply/DemandMarket Conditions: Balanced to Tight Market Expected in the Coming YearsMillion Tonnes KCl Operating Rate* - Percent Shipment Range Shipments Operational Capability Operating Rate 80 100 70 90 60 80 50 40 70 30 60 20 50 10 0 40 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F 2014F 2016F * Based on percentage of operational capability (estimated annual achievable production level). Shipment range based on 3.0-3.5% annualized demand growth rate (2002-2016). Operating rate forecast based on mid-point of shipment range divided by operational capability (including announced projects; assuming typical ramp-up period for new capacity).Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp
  • 13. Brownfield Potash Expansion ProfilePotashCorp Has Greatest Potential for Volume Growth Million Tonnes KCl – Capacity* Growth (2012 – 2016F) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 POT MOS URKA QSLI AGU SQM ICL IPI * PotashCorp based on operational capability (estimated achievable production). Competitor capacity changes based on announced capital projects and estimated construction completion dates, which do not include ramp-up and may exceed operational capability.Source: Fertecon, CRU, Public Filings, PotashCorp
  • 14. Saskatchewan Brownfield and Greenfield Potash CostsNew Projects Are Increasingly Expensive and Complex to CompleteCapital Cost per Tonne – (CDN$) 3,500 Greenfield (Excluding infrastructure and reserve costs) 3,000 Greenfield (Including infrastructure and reserve costs) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 POT Projects POT Projects in MOS Projects in AGU Project SK Greenfield** Completed Progress* Progress * New Brunswick cost per tonne based on new 2MMT mine (net addition totals 1.2MMT). ** Based on 2MMT conventional greenfield mine constructed in Saskatchewan. PotashCorp project costs exclude infrastructure outside the plant gate. Assuming US$/CDN$ at parSource: AMEC, Company Reports, PotashCorp
  • 15. PotashCorp Cash Flow Priorities
  • 16. PotashCorp Capital Spending and Cash FlowOpportunity For Substantial Cash Flow as Expansion Expenditures DeclineUS$ Millions Capital Expenditures* Cash Provided by Operating Activities 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F * Excluding capitalized interestSource: PotashCorp
  • 17. Cash Flow PrioritiesFocused on Using Free Cash Flow to Drive Long-Term Shareholder Value 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Potential: Dividend Increases / Share Buybacks / M&A Potash Brownfield Projects (Existing) Phosphate & Nitrogen Brownfield Projects
  • 18. Thank You There’s more online PotashCorp.com Visit us online Facebook.com/PotashCorp Find us on Facebook Twitter.com/PotashCorp Follow us on Twitter PotashCorp.com

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