PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings


Published on

Published in: Investor Relations
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

PotashCorp - 2012 Q3 Earnings

  1. 1. Q3 2012ConferenceCallOctober 25, 2012 PotashCorp.com
  2. 2. Forward-looking StatementsThis presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). Thesestatements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are nothistorical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchangerates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates.While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, theymay prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates,expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates;fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability oftransportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitivepressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financialmarkets; the results of sales contract negotiations with major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world,including the European sovereign debt crisis; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas andother hedging activities; changes in capital markets and corresponding effects on the company’s investments; unexpected oradverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions,including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings orgovernment investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; changesin, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; andearnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additionalrisks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011 under the captions“Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and ExchangeCommission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the dateof this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as aresult of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Slide#2
  3. 3. Third-Quarter 2012 Highlights• Earnings of $0.74 per share1; trailing the $0.94 per share earned in 2011• Record third-quarter North American potash sales volumes• Cash flow prior to working capital changes of $0.8 billion2• Gross margin of $0.9 billion; below the $1.1 billion earned last year• Market value of investments $9.2 billion, or $10 per PotashCorp share3 1 Allreferences to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share 2 See reconciliation and description of non-IFRS measures in our Q3 2012 news release titled “Selected Non-IRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations” available at www.potashcorp.com. 3 As of market close on October 24, 2012 Slide#3 Source: PotashCorp
  4. 4. Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison Reduced Gross Margin Due Primarily to Potash Segment Potash Highlights:US$ Millions • Record North American and strong Latin American1,200 $1,132 -$146 sales volumes offset by decline in China and India -$47 • Prices were lower on offshore market weakness1,000 -$12 $927 • Higher costs due to lower production, higher Esterhazy costs, facility mix and depreciation costs 800 Phosphate Highlights: 600 • Weaker prices, primarily for liquid and solid phosphate fertilizers 400 • Lower sales volume due to production constraints; offset by lower per-tonne cost of goods sold 200 Nitrogen Highlights: 0 • Strong agricultural and industrial demand supported Q3 2011 GM Potash Phosphate Nitrogen Q3 2012 GM higher ammonia prices • Reduced sales volumes due to production constraints; higher per-tonne cost of goods sold primarily due to higher Trinidad gas costs Slide#4 Source: PotashCorp
  5. 5. World Grain Stocks-to-Use RatioProductivity Improvements Needed to Begin Replenishing Grain Inventories Percent 40 35 30 25 25-year average 20 15 10 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12F Based on crop year data. For example, 12F refers to the 2012/13 crop year. Slide#5 Source: USDA
  6. 6. World Grain ProductionRecent Stagnated Production Has Highlighted Importance of Balanced Fertilization Grain Production – Billion Tonnes 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F Slide#6 Source: USDA, Fertecon
  7. 7. North American Potash Market UpdateFavorable Crop Economics, Limited Dealer Inventory Drive Strong Q3 Shipments Potash Cost Percentage of US Corn Revenue Producer Shipments to North American MarketPercent Million Tonnes KCl5.0 1.2 2011 2012 1.04.0 10-year average 0.83.0 0.62.0 0.41.0 0.20.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Slide#7 Source: IPNI, DTN, USDA, Bloomberg, PotashCorp
  8. 8. Brazil Potash Market UpdateStrong Returns and Agronomic Need Are Driving Record Nutrient Consumption Brazil Soybean Gross Margin Percentage Brazil Potash ImportsPercent Million Tonnes KCl60 1.20 2011 201250 1.0040 0.803020 0.6010 0.40 0 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 0.20-10-20 0.00 Jan Mar May Jul Sept Nov Slide#8 Source: Safras and Mercado, ANDA, PotashCorp
  9. 9. India Fertilizer Market Situation Changes to India’s Subsidy System Have Amplified Application ImbalanceRs/tonne of KCl Million Tonnes of KCl Rs/tonne of Urea Million Tonnes of Urea16,000 KCl Imports 8 6,000 Urea Consumption 35 KCl Retail Prices Urea Retail Prices 7 30 5,00012,000 6 25 4,000 5 20 8,000 4 3,000 15 3 2,000 10 4,000 2 1,000 5 1 0 0 0 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F Slide#9 Source: Fertecon, CRU, FAI, PotashCorp
  10. 10. World Potash DemandInventory Destocking and Lower Indian Imports Affect Demand in 2012 Million Tonnes KCl 56 54 52 50 48 46 2011 India North America Other Asia Other 2012F Slide#10 Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
  11. 11. World Potash ShipmentsExpect Strong Rebound in 2013 Million Tonnes KCl 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 India China Other Latin North Other Asia America America Slide#11 Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
  12. 12. PotashCorp Dividend Per Share* Current Dividend More Than Six-Times Its Level at the Beginning of 2011 US$ Per Share $0.25 $0.21 $0.20 $0.15 $0.14 $0.14 $0.10 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.05 $0.03 $0.00 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012* Dividends declared each quarter Slide#12 Source: Bloomberg
  13. 13. 2012 Guidance* Full Year • Earnings per share: $2.40-$2.60** • Potash gross margin: $2.1-$2.3 billion • Potash shipments: 7.6-8.3 million tonnes • Phosphate and nitrogen gross margin: $1.3-$1.5 billion* Guidance as at October 24, 2012** Includes impact of Q2 2012 $0.39 per share Sinofert impairment charge Slide#13 Source: PotashCorp
  14. 14. 2012 Guidance* Full Year • Capital expenditures**: $2.2 billion • Annual effective tax rate: ~26 percent • Provincial mining and other taxes: ~10 percent of total potash gross margin • Other income: $375-$425 million • Selling and administrative expenses: $225-$245 million • Finance costs: $100-120 million* Guidance as at October 24, 2012** Does not include capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance Slide#14 Source: PotashCorp
  15. 15. Thank youThere’s more online: PotashCorp.com Visit us online Facebook.com/PotashCorp Find us on Facebook Twitter.com/PotashCorp Follow us on Twitter