Crime Analysis

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The companion PowerPoint presentation for Chapter Twelve (Crime Analysis) for the book Police Technology.

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Crime Analysis

  1. 1. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymond E. Foster Police TechnologyPolice Technology Chapter TwelveChapter Twelve Crime AnalysisCrime Analysis
  2. 2. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives  Understand the definition of crimeUnderstand the definition of crime analysis and underpinning theoriesanalysis and underpinning theories  Understand the applications of crimeUnderstand the applications of crime analysisanalysis  Be exposed to how crime analysis canBe exposed to how crime analysis can be used to solve community problemsbe used to solve community problems and advanced crime mapping topicsand advanced crime mapping topics
  3. 3. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo IntroductionIntroduction Without the component of criminalWithout the component of criminal investigations, neither the Communityinvestigations, neither the Community Policing nor Problem-OrientedPolicing nor Problem-Oriented Policing models have value.Policing models have value.
  4. 4. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo IntroductionIntroduction At the core, the functionsAt the core, the functions of state and local lawof state and local law enforcement remain:enforcement remain:  PreventionPrevention  Investigation, andInvestigation, and  ApprehensionApprehension
  5. 5. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Crime AnalysisCrime Analysis and Community-Oriented Policingand Community-Oriented Policing  Problem solving is a criticalProblem solving is a critical component of the COP model.component of the COP model.  An essential part of problemAn essential part of problem solving is an examination ofsolving is an examination of incidents, their relationships toincidents, their relationships to each other, and their relationshipseach other, and their relationships to underlying problems.to underlying problems.
  6. 6. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo  One of the ways police officers useOne of the ways police officers use their expertise in problem solving istheir expertise in problem solving is through the analysis of crime.through the analysis of crime.  Crime analysis starts with crimeCrime analysis starts with crime mapping.mapping.  A crime may be the result of a varietyA crime may be the result of a variety of other factors.of other factors. Crime AnalysisCrime Analysis
  7. 7. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Crime AnalysisCrime Analysis Crime mapping is about:Crime mapping is about:  Problem solvingProblem solving  The identification ofThe identification of the problemthe problem  Using the informationUsing the information gained from analysisgained from analysis to mitigate theto mitigate the problemproblem
  8. 8. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Scanning-Analysis-Response-Scanning-Analysis-Response- AssessmentAssessment:: One of the most prevalent problem-solvingOne of the most prevalent problem-solving methodologies used by policemethodologies used by police departmentsdepartments S A R AS A R A
  9. 9. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo What Are the BenefitsWhat Are the Benefits of Crime Analysis?of Crime Analysis?  The ability to show relationshipsThe ability to show relationships between crime and casual factors.between crime and casual factors.  Promotes information integrationPromotes information integration and cooperation among differentand cooperation among different police agencies and otherpolice agencies and other government agenciesgovernment agencies
  10. 10. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo  A COP enhancer because they canA COP enhancer because they can assist in the establishment ofassist in the establishment of partnerships with other non-lawpartnerships with other non-law enforcement agencies.enforcement agencies.  Can enhance communication withinCan enhance communication within and without the police department.and without the police department. Crime Analysis and COPCrime Analysis and COP
  11. 11. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo These relationship factors may be:These relationship factors may be:  SpatialSpatial in nature (resulting from itsin nature (resulting from its proximity to a location).proximity to a location).  TemporalTemporal – Having to do with a– Having to do with a certain time periodcertain time period Time, Space and CrimeTime, Space and Crime
  12. 12. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo DisplacementDisplacement  Crime analysis information is used toCrime analysis information is used to deploy more officers in an area that isdeploy more officers in an area that is experiencing a higher crime rate.experiencing a higher crime rate.  The deployment of more officersThe deployment of more officers stops the crime form occurring therestops the crime form occurring there and then – It is displaced.and then – It is displaced.  DisplacementDisplacement can be spatial orcan be spatial or temporal.temporal.
  13. 13. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo IncapacitationIncapacitation  Most crime is committed by a veryMost crime is committed by a very small percentage of a community.small percentage of a community.  The police should be targeting theirThe police should be targeting their efforts on those individualsefforts on those individuals  If an offender is arrested instead ofIf an offender is arrested instead of being displaced,being displaced, incapacitationincapacitation occurs.occurs.
  14. 14. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Serial CrimesSerial Crimes  Multiple crimes committed by anMultiple crimes committed by an offender or group of offenders, whichoffender or group of offenders, which occur over a period of time.occur over a period of time.  Crime analysis is moving towards theCrime analysis is moving towards the identification of serial crimes and theidentification of serial crimes and the targeting of serial offenderstargeting of serial offenders
  15. 15. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Rational Choice, Situational CrimeRational Choice, Situational Crime Prevention, and Crime AnalysisPrevention, and Crime Analysis Situational CrimeSituational Crime Prevention isPrevention is based on two things:based on two things:  OffenderOffender opportunityopportunity andand  Rational ChoiceRational Choice TheoryTheory
  16. 16. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Offenders choose to commit crimesOffenders choose to commit crimes when:when:  The opportunity is rightThe opportunity is right  They have enough information thatThey have enough information that the value of the crime is more thanthe value of the crime is more than the risk of punishment (risk vs. value)the risk of punishment (risk vs. value) Offender opportunityOffender opportunity
  17. 17. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Routine Activity TheoryRoutine Activity Theory Three parts to thisThree parts to this theory:theory:  An offenderAn offender  A victimA victim  The absence of anThe absence of an interfering orinterfering or restraining force –restraining force – something that adds tosomething that adds to the risk of detection.the risk of detection.
  18. 18. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo The Basic RequirementsThe Basic Requirements for Crime Analysisfor Crime Analysis  You cannot conduct modernYou cannot conduct modern crime analysis without mappingcrime analysis without mapping capabilitiescapabilities  You cannot conduct geographicYou cannot conduct geographic and statistical analysis withoutand statistical analysis without minimal hardware and softwareminimal hardware and software
  19. 19. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo At minimum you need . . .At minimum you need . . .  A laptop or desktopA laptop or desktop computer withcomputer with sufficient speedsufficient speed  Hard disk storage toHard disk storage to accommodate youraccommodate your data and functionsdata and functions  A high-quality printerA high-quality printer that can handle colorthat can handle color maps and workload.maps and workload.
  20. 20. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Where does the data come from?Where does the data come from? Two types of data needed:Two types of data needed:  Mapping dataMapping data – general data– general data about your communityabout your community  Crime dataCrime data – specific data about– specific data about criminal occurrences in yourcriminal occurrences in your communitycommunity
  21. 21. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo The Analysis of a CrimeThe Analysis of a Crime Crime analysis begins withCrime analysis begins with statistical analysisstatistical analysis. Mapping is. Mapping is critical to crime analysis, but itcritical to crime analysis, but it is not the starting point.is not the starting point.
  22. 22. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Mean numberMean number the averagethe average Burglaries 2003/4Burglaries 2003/4 JanJan 8282 FebFeb 7878 MarMar 7575 AprilApril 7474 MayMay 7575 JuneJune 8080 JulyJuly 7272 AugAug 7575 SeptSept 7878 OctOct 8080 NovNov 110110 DecDec 114114 993993 993 / 12 = 82993 / 12 = 82
  23. 23. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo The Analysis of a CrimeThe Analysis of a Crime  Begins with look at average occurrencesBegins with look at average occurrences as compared to another period.as compared to another period.  This can indicate a rise in crime.This can indicate a rise in crime.  After initial statistical analysis thatAfter initial statistical analysis that indicates a rise, the search for patternsindicates a rise, the search for patterns begins.begins.  A search for patterns – time, date, method ofA search for patterns – time, date, method of operation, etc, can lead to potential solutionsoperation, etc, can lead to potential solutions
  24. 24. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Hot SpotsHot Spots  An area that traditionally has aAn area that traditionally has a lot of crime orlot of crime or  An area with an unusualAn area with an unusual increase in crimeincrease in crime
  25. 25. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo ForecastingForecasting  The use ofThe use of mathematical modelsmathematical models to predict the nextto predict the next likely occurrencelikely occurrence
  26. 26. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo ForecastingForecasting  Attempting to predictAttempting to predict future events by usingfuture events by using past events as apast events as a guide.guide.  TemporalTemporal analysis isanalysis is the most common typethe most common type of forecastingof forecasting  SpatialSpatial analysis is lessanalysis is less commoncommon
  27. 27. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Crime AnalysisCrime Analysis and Problemsand Problems  A problem is a cluster of incidents.A problem is a cluster of incidents.  The relationship of the problem toThe relationship of the problem to space and time may provide informationspace and time may provide information about the solution.about the solution.  Perhaps causation like driving under thePerhaps causation like driving under the influence arrests and the location ofinfluence arrests and the location of locations that sell alcoholic beverageslocations that sell alcoholic beverages  Perhaps causation like the presence of anPerhaps causation like the presence of an active offenderactive offender
  28. 28. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Geographic ProfilingGeographic Profiling  Used with serial crimes (typically theUsed with serial crimes (typically the most serious crimes)most serious crimes)  Used to determine offender’sUsed to determine offender’s geographic attributes (where theygeographic attributes (where they might live, work, and socialize).might live, work, and socialize).
  29. 29. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymo Takes the attributes of time, space,Takes the attributes of time, space, behavior, target, and offender andbehavior, target, and offender and analyzes their spatial and temporalanalyzes their spatial and temporal information in order to determine aninformation in order to determine an offender’soffender’s activity spaceactivity space (the hunting(the hunting area).area). Geographic ProfilingGeographic Profiling
  30. 30. Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymond E. Foster Police TechnologyPolice Technology Go to theGo to the Student ResourcesStudent Resources page atpage at www.hitechcj.comwww.hitechcj.com

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