Place AGM 2014: Michael Dall

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Michael Dall, lead economist at data provider Barbour ABI

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Place AGM 2014: Michael Dall

  1. 1. MICHAEL DALL Lead Economist Barbour ABI Place North West AGM, Manchester, 22nd May 2014
  2. 2. About UBM Barbour ABI is owned by UBM plc and part of the UBM Live Built Environment division. We are part of the UK’s largest Built Environment focussed set of brands in the alongside Building, BD, and Ecobuild. UBM - global marketing and communications service, 5,500 staff. In 2013 it generated revenue of more than £793m and an operating profit of £186m. Owned by UBM, some of our sister companies include:
  3. 3. Sales leads/project tracking Client/Competitor monitoring Market analysis Barbour ABI Services
  4. 4. Working with Government Lead Economist, Michael Dall provides: • Context and commentary around the Construction sector and the wider economy in general • Detailed sector and regional analysis • CPA/Barbour ABI Index (produced in association with Noble Francis, Economics Director of the CPA) with activity reports across fifteen sectors within Construction. Partnering with Barbour ABI we will be accessing virtually a census of new orders data, to produce estimates of New Orders in Construction. JACKIE JONES, Deputy Director, ONS By joining forces with experts in the field of handling and publishing construction data, we hope that accessing the pipeline can be made increasingly user-friendly. PAUL MORRELL, Government Chief Construction Advisor, HM Government www.uk-cip.org.uk
  5. 5. Construction market analysis
  6. 6. UK Economy
  7. 7. UK economy •Stop start recovery •Strong recent growth Source: ONS 330,000 340,000 350,000 360,000 370,000 380,000 390,000 400,000 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP£million GDPGrowth(%) QonQ Growth (%) GDP (£million)
  8. 8. UK economy •Comparatively prolonged downturn •Much improved 2013 Source: OECD 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 Canada France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States Index 2008 = 100
  9. 9. UK economy •Broad growth Source: Markit / CIPS
  10. 10. UK economy •Falling Unemployment •Low inflation Source: ONS 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 Dec-Feb2009 Feb-Apr2009 Apr-Jun2009 Jun-Aug2009 Aug-Oct2009 Oct-Dec2009 Dec-Feb2010 Feb-Apr2010 Apr-Jun2010 Jun-Aug2010 Aug-Oct2010 Oct-Dec2010 Dec-Feb2011 Feb-Apr2011 Apr-Jun2011 Jun-Aug2011 Aug-Oct2011 Oct-Dec2011 Dec-Feb2012 Feb-Apr2012 Apr-Jun2012 Jun-Aug2012 Aug-Oct2012 Oct-Dec2012 Dec-Feb2013 Feb-Apr2013 Apr-Jun2013 Jun-Aug2013 Aug-Oct2013 Oct-Dec2013 Dec-Feb2014 Unemployment Rate (%)
  11. 11. UK economy •Spare capacity Source: ONS / Bank of England
  12. 12. UK economy •House price bubble? Source: ONS -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rate(%) Annual House Price Inflation Consumer Price Inflation
  13. 13. UK economy •Depends on where you live Source: ONS 8.0 8.5 4.9 0.8 0.3 4.1 3.1 5.3 5.0 4.4 6.6 17.0 6.1 5.8 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 UK England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland North East North West Yorks & The Humber East Midlands West Midlands East London South East South West Annual House Price Change (%)
  14. 14. UK economy •Business Investment increasing but room to improve Source: ONS / Bank of England
  15. 15. Construction Sector
  16. 16. Construction sector •Improved 2013 •Solid start to 2014 Source: ONS 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Output£million OutputGrowth(%) QonQ Growth (%) Output (£million)
  17. 17. North West Construction •Severe downturn in 08/9 •Better performance in 2013 Source: ONS 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Output(£million) OutputGrowth(%) QonQ Growth (%) Output (£million)
  18. 18. North West Construction •Fourth largest in UK in the past year by output £23,789 £17,693 £12,916 £12,090 £10,127 £9,744 £8,996 £8,678 £6,686 £4,466 £3,875 £0 £5,000 £10,000 £15,000 £20,000 £25,000 London South East East of England North West Scotland South West West Midlands Yorkshire & the Humber East Midlands Wales North East Output(£million) Construction Output (£million) Source: ONS
  19. 19. North West Construction •Third largest by value of new construction projects Source: ONS / Barbour ABI £3,069 £1,709 £1,479 £1,326 £1,159 £1,074 £943 £854 £629 £521 £268 £0 £500 £1,000 £1,500 £2,000 £2,500 £3,000 £3,500 London South EastNorth West Scotland South West Yorks & Humber West Midlands East Midlands North East Wales East of England Average New Order Value 2013 (£ million)
  20. 20. Contracts awarded •Dominated by residential in past year Source: Barbour ABI 32% 22%8% 8% 9% 11% 10% Residential Infrastructure Commercial & Retail Industrial Hotel, leisure & sport Medical & health Education
  21. 21. Contracts Awarded •Main location is Merseyside Source: Barbour ABI 22% 7% 21% 1% 24% 25% 0% 0% Cheshire Cumbria Greater Manchester Isle of Man Lancashire Merseyside Yorkshire Staffordshire
  22. 22. Sector Profile •Strength in healthcare, hotel,industrial Source: Barbour ABI 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Commercial and Retail Civic and Public Infrastructure Education Residential Industrial Hotel, Leisure & Sport Medical and Healthcare Location Quotient NW/UK
  23. 23. Growth sectors •Growth in healthcare, hotel, industrial Source: Barbour ABI Northern England 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Commercial and Retail Civic and Public Infrastructure Education Residential Industrial Hotel, Leisure & Sport Medical and Healthcare Location Quotient
  24. 24. Top Projects Project Title County Project Value (£mns) Client ROYAL LIVERPOOL HOSPITAL Merseyside 335 Royal Liverpool and Broadgreen Hospital NHS Trust A6 TO MANCHESTER AIRPORT RELIEF ROAD - SEMMMS ROUTE Cheshire 100 Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council GREENGATE DEVELOPMENT Greater Manchester 100 Pinnacle Developments (NW) SILOS DIRECT ENCAPSULATION PLANT - PRELIMINARY WORKS Cumbria 100 Sellafield Limited (AMEC) RIVERSIDE TERMINAL - SEAFORTH DOCKS Merseyside 90 Peel Ports Limited UNIVERSITY OF SALFORD STUDENT RESIDENCES Greater Manchester 85.4 University Of Salford MANCHESTER CITY ETIHAD STADIUM - EXPANSION Greater Manchester 60 Manchester City Football Club ALDI DISTRIBUTION CENTRE - LOGISTICS NORTH Lancashire 57.6 Aldi Stores Limited BICKERSHAW SOUTH Lancashire 50 Wigan Council / Homes & Communities Agency RE:NEW PROJECT - CHESTER Cheshire 37 Cheshire West & Chester Council Renew Project Chester Greengate Development Royal Liverpool Hospital
  25. 25. Pipeline Projects Project Title County Project Value (£mns) Client HOOTON PARK SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FACILITY Merseyside 180 Biossence HAHNEMANN HOUSE - STUDENT ACCOMMODATION Merseyside 100 Maghull Group AMAZON DISTRIBUTION WAREHOUSE Merseyside 100 Amazon UK WOODFORD AERODROME MIXED DEVELOPMENT Cheshire 100 Redrow Homes (South Midlands) Limited NO.2 ST PETER'S SQUARE Greater Manchester 80 Mosley Street Ventures Limited 1 SPINNINGFIELDS - MANCHESTER Greater Manchester 80 Allied London Properties Limited ROSSFIELD PARK - 500 HOUSES Cheshire 50 The Peel Group BREWERY VILLAGE - LIVERPOOL Merseyside 50 Robert Cain Brewery Company Limited INDUSTRIAL WAREHOUSE AND OFFICES Lancashire 50 Canmoor Developments COTTON BUILDING - SPINNINGFIELDS Greater Manchester 30 Allied London Properties Limited Brewery Village No.2 St Peter’s Square 1 Spinningfields
  26. 26. Outlook Source: ONS / OBR UK economy much improved in last 12 months Strong growth expected this year and next Dangers of focus on consumption over exports and investment? Construction sector improved recently Forecast suggest strong growth North West likely to mirror this pattern Too much exposure to housing? 2012 2013 2014 (f) 2015 (f) GDP Growth 0.3% 1.8% 2.7% 2.3% 2012 2013 2014 (f) 2015(f) Construction Growth -8.2% 1.1% 4.5% 4.8% Source: ONS / Construction Products Association
  27. 27. TEL: 0151 353 3500 FAX: 0151 353 3501 EMAIL: info@barbour-abi.com WEB: www.barbour-abi.com Contact Us

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