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World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
World view june_2012
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World view june_2012

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  • Italy, protests over cost of pasta – demonstrations giving out free pasta to those who don’t buyMexico, Tortilla prices have doubled in 2006 – 2007 to 0.45 cents per poundEgypt, #1 importer of wheat in the world, bread prices have gone up quite a bit…Food is 48.1% of household consumption…….
  • January 08, 2 cups of rice sell at $0.60 up 50% from the previous year. Cookies sell for $0.05Haiti imports 4/5 of their rice…..(NY TIMES, April 17th,
  • Ag industry uses 19% of U.S. fossil fuels
  • Ag industry uses 19% of U.S. fossil fuels
  • Add oil – Rice up to $1,100
  • Population estimates in the future?Need a 70% increase in food production by 2050 – J.A. Burney, et al., “Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification” Proceedings fo the National Academy of Sciences, 107.26, 2010 pp 12052-12057
  • Grain yields increasing at 1.1% per year, population growing a little faster at 1.2% per yearWe were fine durng the 1960’s (high yield crops and energy intensive agriculture ushered in the Green Revolution)
  • Globally – 64%Latin America – 71%North America 39%Europe – 32%Africa – 86%Asia – 81%Austraila – 72%http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater_withdrawal_in_agriculture_industry_and_domestic_use
  • http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=20018Murray-Darling Basin
  • Australia’s rice crop has dropped by 98% over last 6 years – NY TIMES April 17, 2008http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/business/worldbusiness/17warm.htmlAustria hit hard - 2006-2007 drought, wheat crop failure, over last 6 years export of wheat has dropped from 28 million tons of grain a year to a mere 10 million“Chardonnay Effect”, significant reduction in rice to Asia-Pacific and Middle East Markets
  • Orange – 95% of GMO production (5-6 countries)Shaded – Rest who produce GMO’sDots – experimental onlyWired data, 23 countries grow GM (pg 73) are foodExporters and 40 states inneed of aid, are not, Some are refusing GM aid
  • Ag industry uses 19% of U.S. fossil fuels
  • National-International Urban & Small Farm Conference - West Allis, WI – September 2010 and 2012
  • Green Roofs and Vertical Horticulture
  • Move to more sustainable agriculture (agroecology), move away from monoculture – have to consider the environmental and social impacts of food production, subsidize the farmer and not the commoditySome argue not economically viable…
  • Transcript

    • 1. Everybody Eats:The Sustainability and Future of Our Global Food System Associate Professor of Environmental Science and Chemistry Chair, Department of Environmental Sciences Thrive.
    • 2. Today’s Agenda• Current Global Food Situation• Challenges and Issues• Solutions• Final Thoughts
    • 3. Our Broken Food System….. FAO estimation in consultation with the USDA FAO, 2010
    • 4. Riots and Protests
    • 5. Egypt (April, June 2008) Mexico (2008) Tunisia (2008, 2011) Haiti (April 2008) Photo Sources: AP, Mahesh Kumar A, Fethi Belaid/AFP/Getty Images, www.standeyo.com
    • 6. By Ariana Cubillos, AP
    • 7. FAO Food Price Index FAO, 2011
    • 8. Global Food Prices 1200 Maize (US) Wheat (US) Price (US $ per tonne) 1000 Rice (Thailand) 800 600 400 200 0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Year Price of wheat, maize and rice between 1999 and 2011 FAO, 2011
    • 9. Our Broken Food System….. 40% 80% 12% 88% 20% 60% less than $2.00 per day less than $1.00 per day $10.00 more than $2.00 per day more than $1.00 per day $10.00World Bank Developer Indicators, 2008
    • 10. Food as a percentage of total household consumption: China 39.8% India 49.5% Ukraine 61.0% Vietnam 50.7%Philippines 45.6% Kenya 45.8% Sudan 52.9% Nigeria 73.0%Photo Credits: Reuters, AP, Nomura, AsiaNews.it Nomura, 2011Guardian.co.uk, dailymail.co.uk
    • 11. Ecuador: The Ayme family of TingoFood expenditure for one week: $31.55 Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008
    • 12. United States: The Revis family of North CarolinaFood expenditure for one week: $341.98 Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008
    • 13. The Challenges….. Thrive.
    • 14. Photograph by Nicholas Devore III
    • 15. “Industrial” Agriculture Solar Energy PrecipitationFossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide MachinesResources Fertilization Seeding Plant Nutrients Seed & Amendments Tillage Harvest & Irrigation Storage Agricultural Water Chemicals Pest Control Purchased Inputs Farm Production
    • 16. Food Production 3000 (calories / per person / per day) 2800 2600Food Production 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time (yr)
    • 17. Food Production & Fertilizer Consumption 5.0 4.5 1961 - 2002Food Production 4.0 (billion tonnes) 3.5 R2 = 0.86 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Fertilizer Consumption (Mt yr-1) FAO, 2011
    • 18. Food Production & Resources (1961 – 2002) 5.0 5.0 4.5 R2 = 0.86 R2 = 0.96 Food Production 4.5 4.0 (billion tonnes) 3.5 Food Production 3.0 4.0 (billion tonnes) 2.5 2.0 3.5 1.5 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 3.0 Agricultural Land Area (billion ha) 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 2.5 R2 = 0.99Food Production 4.0 Food Production R2 = 0.93 (billion tonnes) 4.0 3.5 (billion tonnes) 3.5 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.5 20 40 60 80 100 1.5 120 140 160 150 200 250 300 15 20 25 30 -1 Fertilizer Consumption (Mt yr ) Machinery Land Area Equipped for Irrigation (million ha) Agricultural (millions) FAO, 2011
    • 19. Industrial Efforts to Improve Yield Yield (tonnes per hectare) 5 4 3 2 1 0 l aw i op ia eri a nd a Mali iqu e i a Ma Eth Nig Ug a mb M oz Average National Yield Potential Yield (Plot Demonstrations) modified from Mackenzie, 2008
    • 20. “Industrial” Agriculture Solar Energy PrecipitationFossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide MachinesResources Fertilization Seeding Plant Nutrients Seed & Amendments Tillage Harvest & Irrigation Storage Agricultural Water Chemicals Pest Control Purchased Inputs Farm Production
    • 21. Global Food & Oil Prices 1200 160 Maize (US) 140 Wheat (US) Price (US $ per barrel) Price (US $ per tonne) 1000 Rice (Thailand) 120 Crude Oil (US) 800 100 600 80 60 400 40 200 20 0 0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Year FAO, 2011
    • 22. Human Population Predicted 10 9.2 billion Global human population (billions) 8 6.5 billion 6.0 billion 6 2.5 billion 1.6 billion 1 billion 4 2 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 YearUN Population Division, 2009 2.5 people per second (80 million per year)
    • 23. Food Production & Consumption Yield and Demand Indexed to 1965 3.5 Global Demand (Crop Product Consumption) Global Crop Yield 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Norman Borlaug 1.0 (1914 – 2009) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 modified from Doyle & Zavislak, 2008 Goldman Sachs, 2007
    • 24. Human Population & Available Land World population (billions) 10 0.6 Arable land (ha/person) 8 0.5 6 0.4 4 0.3 2 0.2 0 0.1 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year Human Population Human population (projected) Earthtrends.wri.org Arable land Faostat.fao.org/faostat
    • 25. Agricultural Land Area & Available Land 1.1 billion hectares 1.0 billion hectares 0.20 billion hectares 17% 14% 71% China Sub-Saharan Central/South Africa America 0.38 billion hectares 0.36 billion hectares 0.21 billion hectares 77% 49% 46% India Europe United States Planted Crops Total Arable, Rain-Irrigated Land World Soil Resources Report, 2000
    • 26. “Land Grabbing” Selling Land Purchasing Land Von Braun & Meinzen-Dick, 200
    • 27. Soil Degradation“The history of every nation, is eventually written in the way in which it cares for its soil” -- Franklin D. Roosevelt Photos by Jim Richardson, National Geographic
    • 28. Water Resource Use Freshwater withdrawal in agriculture, industry and domestic use. (2002). In UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. Retrieved 05:04, August 19, 2011 from http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater_withdrawal_in_agriculture_industry_and_domestic_u se.
    • 29. Pesticide Fate Mixed Land Use Ground Water 33% Streams 100% Fish 96% Urban Areas Ground Water 49% Streams 99% Fish 100% Agricultural Areas Ground Water 59% Streams 92% Fish 85% www.water.usgs.gov
    • 30. Environmental Challenges http://www.globalresearch.ca
    • 31. Global Climate Change USDA Foreign Agricultural Service & NASA, 2005
    • 32. Global Climate Change 2.0Australian Production (million metric tons) 1.5 Justin Mott, NY Times 1.0 0.5 Wine Grapes Rice 0.0 Amy Toensing 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 1 99 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 200 modified from NY Times, April 17, 2008
    • 33. How do we move forward?Are we approaching (or in need of) another food revolution? Thrive.
    • 34. Conventional vs Organic http://thefruitpursuit.com/2011/03/22/organic-vs-conventional-round-two/
    • 35. Genetically Modified Food http://www.american.com http://www.macalester.edu
    • 36. “Industrial” AgricultureAgroecology Fertilization Solar Energy PrecipitationFossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide MachinesResources Pest Control Fertilization Seeding Seeding Plant Nutrients Seed & Amendments Tillage Harvest & Irrigation Storage Irrigation Agricultural Tillage Water Chemicals Pest Control Purchased Inputs Farm Production
    • 37. Push – Pull Pest Management: Kenya“Pull” Plants: Napier grass (Pennisetum purpureum) Sudan grass(Sorghum vulgare sundanense) “Push” Plants: Molasses grass (Melinis minutiflora) Silver leaf (Desmodium uncinatum) Dr. Zeyaur Khan, Coordinator of the Push-Pull Programme, http://www.push-pull.net
    • 38. Push – Pull Pest Management: Kenya Dr Hans Herren, Director-General of ICIPE Prof John Pickett, IACR, Rothamsted http://www.push-pull.net
    • 39. System of Rice Intensification (SRI)Madagascar • Planting of seedlings at 8 – 12 days (instead of 30 – 50 days), 25 cm apart • Keeping soil moist (but well-drained and aerated) • Intercropping & mechanical weeding • Utilizing compost and natural fertilizers Pantanali (1996)
    • 40. System of Rice Intensification (SRI)Madagascar • Used in over 40 countries • 20,000 farmers in Madagascar have adopted • 90% reduction in seed requirements • 50% water savings • 50 – 100% increase in yield • China 9 – 10.5 t/ha (national avg = 6 t/ha) Pantanali (1996), http://sri.ciifad.cornell.edu
    • 41. Terra Preta Soil Improvement: Amazon Photograph by Eduardo Neves Julie Major & Bruno Glaser
    • 42. Sustainable “Urban” Agriculture Justin Sullivan / Getty http://greensgrow.org http://riotofreasons.blogspot.com
    • 43. Urban Agroecology – Growing Power http://www.growingpower.org
    • 44. Urban Vertical Agroecology Designs by Blacke Kurasek & Oliver Foster, http://www.verticalfarm.com/
    • 45. Urban Vertical Agroecology Designs by Kubala Washatko Architects, Inc., http://www.growingpower.org/verticalfarm.html
    • 46. Growing Farmers Elma C. Lomax Incubator Farm (Cabarrus County) Photos by John D. Simmons
    • 47. Food Sovereignty http://www.irri.org http://www.panna.org
    • 48. Thank You!! Online:http://www.pillarenvironmental.com Twitter: PillarESci Email: pillarg@queens.edu Thrive.

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