Our Global Food System: Sustainability and the Next Food Revolution Dr. Greg Pillar Assistant Professor of  Environmental ...
The Food Situation….. FAO, 2009
The Food Situation….. World Bank Developer Indicators, 2008 12% 88% 40% 60% 80% 20%
The Food Situation….. FAO, 2008
FAO, 2009 The Food Situation….. Price of wheat, maize, rice and sorghum between  1999 and 2009
The Food Situation…..
www.standeyo.com www.msnbc.com www.usatoday.com www.bbc.com
By Ariana Cubillos, AP
The Food Situation…..
The Challenges….. Thrive.
1 billion 1.6 billion 2.5 billion 6.0 billion 6.5 billion 2.5 people per second (80 million per year) Challenge #1: - Popu...
Mackenzie, 2008 Goldman Sachs, 2007 Global Demand PREDICTED
Mackenzie, 2008 FAO-STAT, 2008 Global Supply
modified from Doyle & Zavislak, 2008  Goldman Sachs, 2007 Global Supply & Demand…. Norman Borlaug (1914 – 2009)
Fossil Fuel  Resources Machines Purchased Inputs Farm Production Harvest  & Storage Solar Energy Precipitation Carbon Diox...
FAO, 2009 Price of wheat, maize, rice and sorghum between  1999 and 2009
Photos by Jim Richardson, National Geographic “ The history of every nation, is eventually written in the way in which it ...
 
 
 
 
17% 14% 46% 71% 49% 77% 1.1 billion hectares 1.0 billion hectares 0.20 billion hectares 0.38 billion hectares 0.21 billion...
Ecuador : The Ayme family of Tingo Food expenditure for one week : $31.55 Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008 Challenge #3: Food Cult...
United States : The Revis family of North Carolina Food expenditure for one week : $341.98 Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008
 
http://libcom.org http://www.simonsenconsultingservices.com http://www.deltaflow.com http://blogs.princeton.edu
Corn Feed 55% Ethanol 30% High fructose Corn syrup 5% Starch 2% Sweeteners 2% Cereals 2% Field corn surplus Alcohols Sweet...
1200 calories  875 calories 250 calories  170 calories Walsh, 2009
Meat Production – Developing Countries FAO-STAT, 2009
Meat Production - Grain http://www.ces.purdue.edu
Meat Production - Water
Gary Kazanjian – NY Times Meat Production - Feedlots
www.factoryfarm.org www.doveimaging.com
Challenge #4: The Environment FAO, 2008
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service & NASA, 2005 Global Climate Change
Justin Mott, NY Times Global Climate Change modified from NY Times, April 17, 2008 Amy Toensing
Are we approaching another food revolution? Thrive.
Opportunity #1: Genetically Modified Food http://www.american.com http://www.macalester.edu
Flood tolerant rice (SUB1A)
Opportunity #2: Boost Production modified from Mackenzie, 2008
Asia – Pacific Latin  America & Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa Developing countries High-income countries Research and Devel...
Opportunity #3: Sustainable Agriculture
Smaller Farms (LOTS of them)
Sustainable “Urban” Agriculture Justin Sullivan / Getty http://riotofreasons.blogspot.com http://greensgrow.org
http://www.verticalfarm.com/ http://gliving.com http://greenbrooklyn.com http://activplace.com
Growing Farmers Photos by John D. Simmons Elma C. Lomax Incubator Farm (Cabarrus County)
Opportunity #4: Food Sovereignty http://www.panna.org http://www.irri.org
Von Braun & Meinzen-Dick, 2009 Selling Land Purchasing Land “ Land Grabbing”
http://www.organicfood-benefits.com/ Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008 Opportunity #5: Change the Culture
Local Food Policy Networks
 
Thank You!! Online:  http://www.pillarenvironmental.com Twitter:  PillarESci Email:  [email_address] Thrive.
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Presentation by Dr. Greg Pillar given to the participants of the World View's 2010 Partners' Workshop (organized by UNC).

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  • 2008 – another 40 million, pushing the total up to 963 million undernourished 960 – 915 (more than expected food production) + 100 million to 1.02 due to economic crisis 907 million live in developing countries, 65% live in only 7 countries: India, China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and Ethiopia 1.02 billion people undernourished as of June 2009 – (FAO, Rome )
  • Add oil – Rice up to $1,100
  • Italy, protests over cost of pasta – demonstrations giving out free pasta to those who don’t buy Mexico, Tortilla prices have doubled in 2006 – 2007 to 0.45 cents per pound Egypt, #1 importer of wheat in the world, bread prices have gone up quite a bit…
  • January 08, 2 cups of rice sell at $0.60 up 50% from the previous year. Cookies sell for $0.05 Haiti imports 4/5 of their rice…..(NY TIMES, April 17 th ,
  • Population estimates in the future?
  • Demand is growing….increasing meat consumption, biofuels,
  • Quantity of grain produced on each hectare of land is still growing, but not fast enough to keep up with demand
  • Grain yields increasing at 1.1% per year, population growing a little faster at 1.2% per year We were fine durng the 1960’s (high yield crops and energy intensive agriculture ushered in the Green Revolution)
  • Ag industry uses 19% of U.S. fossil fuels
  • Add oil – Rice up to $1,100
  • 1900 million hectares of land worldwide has been affected (UNEP/ISRIC 1991), there are about 3000 million acres of arable land in 1995 Erosion – 16%, Aluminum toxicity – acidity, 14.7%. Hyrdromorphy (poor drainage) – 12.9%, shallow soils 14%
  • , largest is about 550 million hectares in Asia and Pacific. China alone, 1957 – 1990 amount of arable land was reduced by an area equal to all the cropland in Denmark, France, Germany and the Netherlands combined (ESCAP, 1993) Shallow soils, erosion, aluminum toxicity, hydromorphy
  • Africa, 500 million hectares of land have been affected by soil degradaton since 1950 (UNEP/ISRIC 1991), 65% of the regions agricultural land Crop Yields could be halved within 40 years if degradation of cultivated land continues at present rates (Scotney and Dijkhuis, 1989) Low CEC, Aluminum toxicity, shallow soils, erosion
  • Land degradation affects about 300 million hectares of land in Latin and South America (soil erosion, deforestation, overgrazing, poor management) Aluminum toxicity, p-fixation, hydromorphy, erosion
  • 1970 – 4 billion bu 2008 – 12 billion bu
  • 35-40% of ALL cereal produced in 2008 went toward feed. Could reach 50% by 2050 (FAO, 2003, 2006 and UNEP 2009)
  • 70% of U.S. grain goes to feeding cows……(Shiva, find supporting info) 38% of the world’s grain produciton is now fed to livestock, in the US it is about 135 million tons yr of grain of a total of 312 (so not 70%)
  • California Feedlot can hold 100,000 cattle
  • Countries that have recently had to deal with drought India – could see a 40% decline in productivity by 2080 as record heat waves destroy their wheat growing region Africa – could see 30% decline, Senegal and Sudan could see complete agricultural collapse, with declines more than 50%
  • http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=20018 Murray-Darling Basin
  • Australia’s rice crop has dropped by 98% over last 6 years – NY TIMES April 17, 2008 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/business/worldbusiness/17warm.html Austria hit hard - 2006-2007 drought, wheat crop failure, over last 6 years export of wheat has dropped from 28 million tons of grain a year to a mere 10 million “ Chardonnay Effect”, significant reduction in rice to Asia-Pacific and Middle East Markets
  • Orange – 95% of GMO production (5-6 countries) Shaded – Rest who produce GMO’s Dots – experimental only Wired data, 23 countries grow GM (pg 73) are food Exporters and 40 states inneed of aid, are not, Some are refusing GM aid
  • Green Roofs and Vertical Horticulture
  • Move to more sustainable agriculture (agroecology), move away from monoculture – have to consider the environmental and social impacts of food production, subsidize the farmer and not the commodity Some argue not economically viable…
  • Unc world view_820

    1. 1. Our Global Food System: Sustainability and the Next Food Revolution Dr. Greg Pillar Assistant Professor of Environmental Science and Chemistry Thrive.
    2. 2. The Food Situation….. FAO, 2009
    3. 3. The Food Situation….. World Bank Developer Indicators, 2008 12% 88% 40% 60% 80% 20%
    4. 4. The Food Situation….. FAO, 2008
    5. 5. FAO, 2009 The Food Situation….. Price of wheat, maize, rice and sorghum between 1999 and 2009
    6. 6. The Food Situation…..
    7. 7. www.standeyo.com www.msnbc.com www.usatoday.com www.bbc.com
    8. 8. By Ariana Cubillos, AP
    9. 9. The Food Situation…..
    10. 10. The Challenges….. Thrive.
    11. 11. 1 billion 1.6 billion 2.5 billion 6.0 billion 6.5 billion 2.5 people per second (80 million per year) Challenge #1: - Population 9.2 billion Predicted UN Population Division, 2009
    12. 12. Mackenzie, 2008 Goldman Sachs, 2007 Global Demand PREDICTED
    13. 13. Mackenzie, 2008 FAO-STAT, 2008 Global Supply
    14. 14. modified from Doyle & Zavislak, 2008 Goldman Sachs, 2007 Global Supply & Demand…. Norman Borlaug (1914 – 2009)
    15. 15. Fossil Fuel Resources Machines Purchased Inputs Farm Production Harvest & Storage Solar Energy Precipitation Carbon Dioxide Challenge #2: “Modern” Agriculture Plant Nutrients & Amendments Seed Water Agricultural Chemicals Fertilization Tillage Seeding Irrigation Pest Control
    16. 16. FAO, 2009 Price of wheat, maize, rice and sorghum between 1999 and 2009
    17. 17. Photos by Jim Richardson, National Geographic “ The history of every nation, is eventually written in the way in which it cares for its soil” -- Franklin D. Roosevelt Soil Degradation
    18. 22. 17% 14% 46% 71% 49% 77% 1.1 billion hectares 1.0 billion hectares 0.20 billion hectares 0.38 billion hectares 0.21 billion hectares 0.36 billion hectares Land Use…. India United States Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Central/South America China Planted Crops Total Arable, Rain-Irrigated Land World Soil Resources Report, 2000
    19. 23. Ecuador : The Ayme family of Tingo Food expenditure for one week : $31.55 Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008 Challenge #3: Food Culture
    20. 24. United States : The Revis family of North Carolina Food expenditure for one week : $341.98 Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008
    21. 26. http://libcom.org http://www.simonsenconsultingservices.com http://www.deltaflow.com http://blogs.princeton.edu
    22. 27. Corn Feed 55% Ethanol 30% High fructose Corn syrup 5% Starch 2% Sweeteners 2% Cereals 2% Field corn surplus Alcohols Sweet corn Seed 4% Total Annual U.S. Non-Export Corn Production: 10.5 billion bushels National Corn Growers Association, 2008
    23. 28. 1200 calories 875 calories 250 calories 170 calories Walsh, 2009
    24. 29. Meat Production – Developing Countries FAO-STAT, 2009
    25. 30. Meat Production - Grain http://www.ces.purdue.edu
    26. 31. Meat Production - Water
    27. 32. Gary Kazanjian – NY Times Meat Production - Feedlots
    28. 33. www.factoryfarm.org www.doveimaging.com
    29. 34. Challenge #4: The Environment FAO, 2008
    30. 35. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service & NASA, 2005 Global Climate Change
    31. 36. Justin Mott, NY Times Global Climate Change modified from NY Times, April 17, 2008 Amy Toensing
    32. 37. Are we approaching another food revolution? Thrive.
    33. 38. Opportunity #1: Genetically Modified Food http://www.american.com http://www.macalester.edu
    34. 39. Flood tolerant rice (SUB1A)
    35. 40. Opportunity #2: Boost Production modified from Mackenzie, 2008
    36. 41. Asia – Pacific Latin America & Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa Developing countries High-income countries Research and Development Spending Modified from Pardey, Beintema, Dehmer and Wood, 2006
    37. 42. Opportunity #3: Sustainable Agriculture
    38. 43. Smaller Farms (LOTS of them)
    39. 44. Sustainable “Urban” Agriculture Justin Sullivan / Getty http://riotofreasons.blogspot.com http://greensgrow.org
    40. 45. http://www.verticalfarm.com/ http://gliving.com http://greenbrooklyn.com http://activplace.com
    41. 46. Growing Farmers Photos by John D. Simmons Elma C. Lomax Incubator Farm (Cabarrus County)
    42. 47. Opportunity #4: Food Sovereignty http://www.panna.org http://www.irri.org
    43. 48. Von Braun & Meinzen-Dick, 2009 Selling Land Purchasing Land “ Land Grabbing”
    44. 49. http://www.organicfood-benefits.com/ Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008 Opportunity #5: Change the Culture
    45. 50. Local Food Policy Networks
    46. 52. Thank You!! Online: http://www.pillarenvironmental.com Twitter: PillarESci Email: [email_address] Thrive.
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