Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Bizcampbe 2011 market research presentation

303

Published on

This presentation gives an example of how market analysis can be done using micropayments for the online newspaper industry as an example

This presentation gives an example of how market analysis can be done using micropayments for the online newspaper industry as an example

Published in: Business, News & Politics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
303
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. BizcampBe 2011 – Market Research & Case StudyPieter Dubois (duboisp@myonline.be)
  • 2. Why do market research? Why not just, you know … build stuff? Survivor bias – “It worked for Twitter, no?” Building solutions looking for a problem Is there a market … and if so, what is it? Who are your customers … really? What competitors are you up against? Will your company make money in this market? Market research answers these questions
  • 3. Primary Vs. Secondary Market Research Primary: Direct feedback from end-users How: Interviews, A/B testing, Surveys, Adwords You generate data. Hard work but rewarding. Get out! Secondary: Analyst reports Expensive Almost but not quite what you need Scour the Internet Gold digging through trash Google is your friend. Try also Brekiri.com
  • 4. Market Sizing Top Down: Starting from population numbers, industry size, geographies … casting a wide net Narrowing down to market size by assumptions Value Source Population 305 million US Census Dept. of Working Population X 50.5% Labor Changing Jobs Annually X 15% Assumed Using Online Job Postings X 50% Assumed Willing to Pay $50 for X 20% Assumed Posting Brekiri.com Market Size in Revenue = $115.5 million
  • 5. Market Sizing Bottom up: Starting from individual company numbers, country data, visitors, links clicked, segments … Aggregating up to market size using 80/20 rule Gives a view on unit economics like revenue/user Gives insight on who your customer base is Example Mint.com (http://vimeo.com/6959602) 20m-65m users x $30/user CPM/yr = $0.6-$1.8B Focus on your segment of the industry you are in
  • 6. Addressable Market This is the market that is available for capture by you Example: You make canned dog food … in Belgium WW food market is $100 billion Belgium has 2% of the WW market Only 10% dog owners buy dog food 50% of sold dog food is canned Addressable market is $100m, or 1 ‰ of market
  • 7. Other considerations Triangulating Reconciling top down/bottom up market sizes If similar – OK, otherwise redo. Industry growth rates Growing: lot of competition & innovation. Stable: Consolidated. How to create space for you? Dying: Cash flow generation is important. Never say the market doesn’t exist You’re probably not that original Expensive to educate your customers Competition shows there is a market
  • 8. Case Study – The Digital Content market
  • 9. Scavenging for Data Press articles often contain conclusion of studies
  • 10. Looking at drivers for Digital Content Broadband, PC and mobile drive growth%90 Netherlands80 Denmark70 Canada Australia60 United States50 Japan40 United Kingdom Germany30 Finland20 New Zealand Mintel Oxygen, comScore, Internet World Stats,10 France 0 Point Topic, Plunkett Research, Ebay, PayPal, eMarketer, Mastercard, Eurostat, Price Waterhouse Coopers, the OECD, Research and Markets, IFPI, IDC, Strategy Analytics, WikiPedia, Lazard Capital Markets, World Association of Newspapers, eMarketer, Outsell Inc., Piper Jeffrey, InStat, Business Insight, GroupM, Universal McCann, JP Morgan, Datamonitor, Euromonitor, Duncan William and Javelin Strategy & Research
  • 11. Compare with parent Market E-Commerce vs. Digital Goods Online News 6 -> 8.3 2011 E-Books 0.35 -> 9 2011 WW e-commerce Market $870B Virtual goods 2.2 -> 62008 WW e-commerce market ($870 billion) 2008 Online Video Games 11 -> 24 ($530 billion) $530B Asia Online Video 1.2->8.5 20% USA Online Music 4.2 -> 13.75 E-Commerce 34% Asia 16% USA 2013 45% goods Digital World-wide digital goods market 2013 World-wide digital2008 market 2008 goods $70B ($25 billion) Virtual goods, 2.2 ($70 billion) Europe $25B 39% Europe e-book sales US, 46% 0.35 Online news, 8.5 e-book sales US, 9 Virtual goods, 6Digital goods is only Online news, 6 Online Music, 13.755% - 8% of e-commerce Online Music, 4.2 Online Video Games, 11 All data comes from Online Film & Video, 8.5 Online Video Games, 24 different sources Online Film & Video, 1.2
  • 12. “Dude, don’t boil the Ocean. Choose a target market” Adeo Ressi – Founder Institute Online Newspapers …. starting in Belgium … Then in Western Europe
  • 13. Newspaper Industry Online vs. Offline60% 52%50%40% 32% 34% $6B30% 19% 40%20% 12% Google & Yahoo 6%10% 60% 0% Via Search 25% Online Ad Revenue Offline Ad Revenue Only 10%Online Ad Revenue 50-80% of revenues are from advertisements
  • 14. Belgian Newspaper Industry Concentrated Market No individual Digital Content figures available Top-down doesn’t bring us further …
  • 15. Online Usage Patterns Bottom Up Analysis – FinallyKranten Visitors Page Requests Visitors Page Requests Visitors Page Requests Daily Monthly (extrapolated) Yearly (extrapolated)De_Morgen 93,910 518,670 2,817,300 15,560,100 34,277,150 189,314,550De_Tijd_Website 123,636 873,091 3,709,080 26,192,730 45,127,140 318,678,215DH.be_Website 132,149 1,193,217 3,964,470 35,796,510 48,234,385 435,524,205Gazet_van_Antwerpen_Website 114,088 648,939 3,422,640 19,468,170 41,642,120 236,862,735GRENZECHO.net 4,380 37,490 131,400 1,124,700 1,598,700 13,683,850Het_Belang_van_Limburg_Website 99,776 638,619 2,993,280 19,158,570 36,418,240 233,095,935HLN.be—7sur7.be_Website 577,989 5,415,047 17,339,670 162,451,410 210,965,985 1,976,492,155L’Echo_Website 35,671 258,623 1,070,130 7,758,690 13,019,915 94,397,395La_Libre.be_Website 68,941 382,782 2,068,230 11,483,460 25,163,465 139,715,430LeSoir.be_Website 153,612 1,046,322 4,608,360 31,389,660 56,068,380 381,907,530L’avenir_Website 74,832 477,193 2,244,960 14,315,790 27,313,680 174,175,445Nieuwsblad_Website 359,958 2,150,925 10,798,740 64,527,750 131,384,670 785,087,625Standaard_Website 260,266 1,552,923 7,807,980 46,587,690 94,997,090 566,816,895Standard_Sudpresse 15,021 78,486 450,630 2,354,580 5,482,665 28,647,390Sudpresse_Website 28,811 174,831 864,330 5,244,930 10,516,015 63,813,315Totaal 2,143,040 15,447,158 64,291,200 463,414,740 782,209,600 5,638,212,670Average 37,948 371,487 4,286,080 30,894,316 52,147,307 375,880,845 www.cim.be
  • 16. Calculation of Belgium and Western-Europe Belgian addressable market is 60-80 million Euro Average rule: # page requests * 0,15 Euro * 10% readers 80-20 rule: 10% readers * 1 Euro day pass West-European market online news: 2.3 billion Euro Through proxy of Belgian offline market Belgium online market is 6.5% offline of 900m Euro Land Oplage Oplage opbrengst Reclame opbrengst Totale opbrengst Frankrijk 8.8 miljoen 2,640 miljard 1,785 miljard 4,4 miljard Nederland 4.4 miljoen 1,320 miljard 1,771 miljard 3,1 miljard Engeland 19 miljoen 5,7 miljard 5 miljard 10,7 miljard Duitsland 24 miljoen 7,2 miljard 8,45 miljard 15,65 miljard 6.5% of 33.5 billion Euro + 60m Euro = 2.3 billion Euro
  • 17. What is our fair market share? Assume 10% readers prepared to pay Recall 19% WTP & 27% make 82% of page requests. Assume 25% of pages payable Assume only those 27% loyal readers pay. Assume 0.1 Euro is the price per page Assume 10% profit margin Assume 10% market share (15 newspapers) 82% of 375million average page requests/year x 25% paying x 0.1 Euro per page x 10% profit margin x 10 % market share = 1.15 million Euro in Belgium In Europe = 2.3b Euro x 10% x 10% x 25%= 5.75m Euro
  • 18. Conclusion You won’t find your numbers pre-canned Assumptions make conclusions uncertain But will give you ball park figures that you can act on

×