Ask yourself this question, has any paper currency ever survived its use as a store of value?
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Ask yourself this question, has any paper currency ever survived its use as a store of value?

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This Gold Report is a collection from various well-respected writers, and would give you an insight what has happened to gold the last week or so. There are different views, and could be confusing for ...

This Gold Report is a collection from various well-respected writers, and would give you an insight what has happened to gold the last week or so. There are different views, and could be confusing for a investor/trader how to react towards gold, buy or sell.

The report covers the following topics:

1. The Reason Gold Prices Fell So Hard
2. Is Gold as an Investment Finished?
3. Portfolio Manager Greg Orrell: 'My Belief in Gold Has Not Wavered'
4. Paper Gold, Physical Gold: The Ultimate Disconnect
5. The 'Real' Gold Price

Download and read with the focus on having gold in your valuable Portfolio

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Ask yourself this question, has any paper currency ever survived its use as a store of value? Ask yourself this question, has any paper currency ever survived its use as a store of value? Document Transcript

  • Resources for the Independent Trader BlogZurich gold: 0.015kg @ €35,677/kg [7:14:11 AM WAT] Londongold: 0.139kg @ £30,290/kg [7:13:18 AM WAT]Dear Reader,This report is a collection from various well-respected writers, and would giveyou an insight what has happened to gold the last week or so. There aredifferent views, and could be confusing for a investor/trader how to reacttowards gold, buy or sell. My own opinion was and is till the same: “If you want asolid assets and be save, and not end up under the water- then buy physical gold bullionlike the smart central banks and investors are. Ask yourself this question. Has any papercurrency ever survived its use as a store of value?”Download, read and act wisely. Please forward to your colleagues, friends, whom ever youknow.-----------
  • Jeff Christian: “The Reason Gold Prices Fell So Hard”And why does the US Mint struggle to meet silver coin demand...?FOUNDER of CPM Group and frequent market commentator Jeffrey Christian explainsthe triggers behind heavy selling of gold last week and why there really isnt a silvershortage at the US Mint in this interview with Hard Assets Investor.Hard Assets Investor: What was the catalyst behind last weeks historic downwardmoves in gold?Jeff Christian: There were two big groups selling. One was what we call "nervouslongs," people who were still long gold and silver. They had bought it because monetaryaccommodations could be hyperinflationary and Europe and the banks were going tocollapse. None of that stuff has been happening. And the price of gold had come from$1,900 to $1,600 to $1,550, and theyre saying, "Gee, maybe all these gurus are wrong,because theres no hyperinflation."The other group was "emboldened shorts." Even before last week, even before April, ifyou go and look at the Commitment of Traders reports from March 26, you had a sharpincrease in February and March of gross short positions on the Comex gold and silvercontracts. For 12 years these guys said, "Im not so foolish as to short gold." But theyhad been willing in the first quarter of this year to build up short positions sizes not seensince the bear market of 1990s.So you had a lot of people who were more and more willing to go short gold in theexpectation of lower prices already. Then on Friday you had the price just sort ofpancake down, dropping below $1,530, which brought in a round of sell orders both fromnervous longs and fresh short selling. That took the price below $1,500 where anotherround of [sell] orders cascaded in. And it was just like stories of a building cascading—pancaking on top of each other.HAI: How have the last few days changed your view, if at all, on not just gold itself, butalso in regard to your price range of between $1,400 and $1,700? Do you feel that needsto be adjusted?Jeff Christian: We had been using $1,700, $1,750 as a high just on the idea that therecould be an outlier. We were saying we didnt think it would necessarily get there. Andreally, the last couple days have basically reaffirmed our view pretty much. But the bigchange is that those highs that we were thinking were possible are probably even lesspossible now than they were back then.HAI: Is the gold market too volatile for investors right now?Jeff Christian: It really depends on the investor. Today [Tuesday, April 16] has been avery constructive day. The question facing investors is: Is today a dead-cat bounce orthe buyback? Were waiting to see the data, but our gut feeling is that what youreseeing right now is that the last two days were so intense in terms of the selling becausethe weak hands reflected that nervous-long position, and they probably sold. Similarly,the shorts have probably built up as large of a short position as they dare take.When I say "dare," you have to understand two other things. Its not just what they dareto take; its what their banks will allow them to hold given the fact that they useborrowed money. It also has to do with the margins. If you were going to short silver at
  • $28 and now its $22 or $23 and the margins are rising, youve got to say, "Well, whatsmy risk/reward ratio? Maybe I should buy back some of these shorts."Investors ask, "What will turn the price around?" The answer is the cessation of priceflowing. Because as soon as the price stops flowing, youll see some of those shortsliquidating, which will cause the price to rise, and youll also see bargain-hunting. Youreseeing some of that today, and our gut feeling, without having the data confirm it, isthat we may see that continuing. Yesterday [Monday, April 15] probably saw the lows forgold and silver, and the prices could rise maybe to $1,400 or $1,450 for gold, andmaybe $25.50 or $26.50 for silver in short order.HAI: Do you think that the maturity of the gold ETF market has added a new dynamic tothe way the gold price moves?Jeff Christian: ETF holdings have done two things to gold. One is that its made it a loteasier to buy and sell. Its a simple click of a button. You dont have a manager on theother side of that button. Ive seen it in the futures market where banks can assureproducers, "Yes, we can handle 400,000 ounces of gold." And so the producer says "Fine,I want to sell 400,000 ounces of gold." And the bank says, "Well, weve got to work thisorder."But with the ETF, no one is saying, "Ive got to work this order." Its like, "No, Im selling400,000 ounces now." That gold goes off into the system and it cannot be denied. Thenit increases the volatility and the prospect for sharp moves on both sides of price.And the other thing is that the ETFs provide a daily reckoning of physical-investor buying,at least for a small portion of the physical market. You always have daily futures andoptions data, but theres never been a good measure of how much gold is being boughtor sold on a daily basis in the physical market.Now, the ETF is still a small portion of the total physical market. Most of the gold isbought in China and India, in the Middle East, and its not bought through ETFs. So youstill dont get 80-85 percent of the gold market reflected, but you have at least ameasure. And I guess that is bad and good: a) You have a measure; b) You have ameasure thats not necessarily reflective of the total market. But in the absence of agood measure of the total market, a lot of investors will rely on it as a reflection. So itsa bad barometer, but a measure nonetheless.HAI: George Soros floated the idea this past month that gold has disappointed thepublic in the sense of its safe-haven qualities. Do you agree with that?Jeff Christian: I dont think gold has changed its attributes in terms of its uses forinvestors. I always am very cautious to say that Im disagreeing with George, because Ithink George is probably more often misunderstood when he makes public comments,especially about gold, than wrong. And one of the points that he was making was thatwhat weve seen is the gold prices come off—for example in late 2008 into early 2009—and that, as such, maybe it wasnt as great of a safe haven.My view of gold through history is that it does several things for investors. It is a storevalue, its a safe haven, its a portfolio diversifier, but its also a source of liquidity intimes of emergencies and crises. And its always been. Its done that during World War II,World War I, the Napoleonic Wars and it did that in 2008. The price will come off whenyou get to a point where people all of a sudden need cash, and they liquidate their goldto get at their cash.
  • In 1997, during the Asian currency crisis, the people who really survived in Thailandwere the people who still owned gold. The Thai Baht sold 70 percent against the Dollar ina very short period of time. Those businesspeople who had been doing very well prior to1997 and converting their wealth into Dollars and Deutschmark and other currencies andinvesting on a leverage basis of building new factories were crushed. Those people whodid that, but kept some of their money in gold, did OK, because the gold price went up70 percent against the Thai baht. They actually wound up buying the factories that otherpeople were selling in distress.Gold has always provided liquidity in times of stress. Investors shouldnt be disappointedif gold does its job. Investors imbue too much expectation in gold and then they getdisappointed.HAI: What is one of the most important metrics that you watch for in gold?Jeff Christian: We have a proprietary program to develop estimates of supply anddemand, and investment demand. We pay a tremendous amount of attention toinvestment-demand flows. We really want to know what investors are doing. ETFs onlyrepresent a small portion of the total gold market. So you cant just look at ETFs and say,"Well, this is what gold investors are doing. But what we do is we try to be in continualconversation with gold market participants around the world—India, China, the MiddleEast, Europe, the United States—so that we can get a sense of what investors are doing.Sometimes its anecdotal information. So for example, a week after the Lunar New Year,the gold price fell sharply. One of the reasons was that the sales to investors of goldduring the Lunar New Year were disappointing. You had a lot of bullion dealers in Chinawho had stocked up gold inventory in anticipation of very strong sales during the holidayperiod. The sales didnt materialize, and a lot of their clients were bad-mouthing goldsprice prospects.So when the dealers came back, they unloaded their inventories. They dont have goldoptions there, so they dont have an effective way to hedge their inventory. These guyswere long and exposed, and they were seeing weaker investor sales, so they sold gold.HAI: Does that include jewelry demand?Jeff Christian: One of the problems we have is trying to decipher aggregate-investmentdemand from gold jewelry. You can to some extent, but theres clearly overlap. In Chinaand India, you find a lot of gold statues and decorative objects, little trinkets made outof gold. On the one hand, theyre jewelry or decorative objects, but on the other hand,theyre investment demand. So you can talk about the purchase of gold in bars andcoins and medallions, but you also have to pay attention to some of the jewelry demand,simply because some of it is quasi-investment.HAI: What are some of the best reasons to sell gold? Or are you a buy-and-hold goldphilosopher?Jeff Christian: I am a gold agnostic. One of the reasons people would sell gold isbecause they expect the price to fall. Then you say, "Well, why would you expect theprice of gold to fall?" If you see a sharp diminution in the amount of economic andfinancial uncertainty in the world, thats a good reason to sell gold.Another thing to pay attention to is an increase in gold supply. And the third thing goesback to that first one: if you see investors pulling back from the market. One of themetrics that we use, that I didnt mention earlier, is that we pay attention to the premia
  • that are available for American Eagle gold coins and Canadian Maple Leaf coins. Wheninvestors get negative on golds immediate price prospects, theyll actually pull backfrom buying Eagles, or in some cases, sell Eagles and the premiums will fall.Over the last 18 months, weve watched the premia very closely. When the price spikeddown to $1,530 or $1,540, the premia shot up, which tells you that investors are buyinggold at those dips. And then when the price would shoot up—as it did three times in late2011 through 2012—to $1,780 or $1,790 or $1,800 an ounce, you would see the premiafall, which would tell you investors at least are not buying, and in fact they may beselling gold coins. So thats a good metric.HAI: Silver production continues to grow despite falling prices. What is really drivingsilver production? And is there a point where, as with natural gas, the producers aregoing to say, "We need the price to be higher for us to continue to do this profitably"?Jeff Christian: The short answer is mine productions rising because the price of silveris sharply higher. Silver traded between $4.50 and $5.50 for most of the period from thelate 1980s until 2005. There were a lot of properties that were not profitable to mine ordevelop at $5.50 an ounce that are now profitable. And so youre seeing production riseas a result of that.Now costs are rising too, but these guys still have on average a pretty good margin.There were some producers that were very high priced, and are really at risk with theprice coming down now to $26 and $27 an ounce. If the price continues to fall, there aresome guys who are at risk. But the vast majority of the producers are very profitableeven at $20 an ounce. So I think that youll see that production continue to rise for thenext several years.HAI: Since we have this growing production, why does the US Mint continually run outof silver for its coins?Jeff Christian: I dont know the Mints operations as intimately as I knew in the 80sand 90s when we were advising them. But the Mint doesnt run out of silver; it runs outof silver blanks. And I think that thats the key. You have to understand that to havesilver inventories tied up in blanks and in struck coins waiting to sell is very costly. TheMint tries to minimize the amount of money it has tied up in working inventories. Andthats why they keep running short.A lot of companies built capacity to make blanks and rounds and small bars in the 1980sbecause of the run-up in demand and prices then. By the late 1980s, no one was buyingthat silver, they were selling it back to the market and these guys were writing off theirfactories. So when you saw the price started to rise again in 2005/2006, what you sawwere a lot of people who make small investment products saying, "Im not going tomake that same mistake again, and build up manufacturing capacity for something thatcould be gone in 24 months." Well, its been six years now and its not gone.Some companies have given in and theyve built up capacity, so there is more capacitynow than there was in 2008 when they really had problems sourcing blanks. But its amatter of very cautious businesspeople in the blanking business saying, "Im not sure Iwant to build up capacity for something that could go away for the next 20 years theway it did last time." And the Mint is saying, "We dont want to necessarily build upinventories here and then investors turn off their demand for silver."Hard Assets Investor, 22 Apr 13
  • Hardassetsinvestor.com is a research-oriented website devoted to sharing ideas aboutinvesting in the natural resources sector. Published by Van Eck Associates Corporation,the site offers an educational resource for both individual and institutional investorsinterested in learning more about commodity equities, commodity futures, and gold –the three major components of the hard assets marketplace.Is Gold as an Investment Finished?Before delving deeper into that question, perhaps we should see what the mainstreammedia thinks. In fairness to the MSM, we note there are plenty of articles on both sidesof the debate. Yet there has been some media piling-on since the recent hardbreakdown in gold. The aptly named Howard Gold explains:The Case for Owning Gold Has Collapsed; Yellow metal could be headed much, muchlower .Gold could be headed not much lower, but much much lower. This was written on April18, when the value assigned to the monetary relic (AKA its nominal price) resided at$1391 per ounce. So be warned, Mr. Gold advises that gold could go muchmuch lower. Gold bugs take heed; Mr. Gold himself has put the double ‘much’ whammyon you!After critical support at 1524 was lost our first downside target of 1440 or so was sawnthrough like Balsa Wood. Okay fine. For those who micro manage every tick inthe price of gold (I am not one), then here is the situation; the current little reboundmust extend back up to and through the broken support level at 1440 or the next targetin the low 1200’s is up next.See the weekly chart on page 3, which was produced 5 weeks ago in NFTRH 230. Whilenot a favored outcome, recent events with gold’s price are not surprising.
  • To review, the two potential points to watch for in the event of a breakdown from 1524were the weekly EMA 200, which supported the 2008 decline and then the conservativemeasurement from the pattern breakdown, which is in the low 1200’s, which alsoincludes a visual support shelf from 2010. The less conservative measurement (the topat 1900 to 1524) would target around 1150.So that is the price picture, now on to the fundamentals courtesy of Mr. Gold. From thearticle linked above:“But gold’s price could be headed much, much lower, said Campbell Harvey, a professorat the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. Harvey has looked at gold pricesover the centuries, and concludes that it’s still trading at lofty multiples of inflation.”In the article linked above there is another link where you can download the research ofMr. Harvey and colleague Claude Erb – currently making the rounds like a good gold bughorror movie – that talks about gold’s “real” price as measured by CPI and GDP. Boilingit all down, gold is historically over valued as compared to measures of the effects ofinflation on consumer prices and relative to GDP.We will steer clear of the debate about government number fudging, because it is abattle that is not necessary. The Federal Reserve and many of its counterparts aroundthe globe are inflating, or trying their damnedest to inflate. They are using debtinstruments to create money out of nowhere and pumping it into big banks, which aresupposedly expected to release the money out to the public.This could one day manifest in an out of control inflation problem (as measured by thelagging effects that Harvey and Erb call inflation, or resolve into a more intense
  • deflationary phase as the thing that is just a whiff now gains momentum and swallowsthe entire spectrum of inflated assets in one big gulp of illiquidity.The economy has depended on inflationary policy since the age of Inflation on Demandbegan under Alan Greenspan’s oversight in and around 2000.Ask yourself this; why are they inflating? Why are they printing money at a furious paceif the GDP is real and sustainable? The answer is likely because they know that thefinancial system is a leveraged thing that must not be allowed to start deflating becauseif it starts deleveraging, it is not going to stop until the books are cleared.Gold vs. Commodities, What is the Message?The authors noted above measure gold’s ‘real’ price in CPI and GDP. Here we havealways measured it relative to the commodity complex, which is generally positivelycorrelated to the global economy. Above is gold vs. the CCI commodity index.I had originally thought that a decline to the lower moving average would come with acontinued economic bump, stock bull market and inflation-fueled commoditybounce. But instead, gold has tanked vs. commodities even as a deflationary pull startsto take hold with signs of economic deceleration, commodities down and the stockmarket potentially in some kind of a topping process.Yet the ‘real’ price is still in a secular uptrend because the ratio has held above anotherparameter point we noted as important. If the blue arrow is confirmed by turning greenone day, the message will continue to be a secular era of economic contraction, whichhas thus far been fought tooth and nail by inflationary policy. That is and has been the
  • case for gold since day one. Not the case most gold bugs root for, which isinflationary effects, the likes of which are used as data points by Harvey and Erb. See?Of course Harvey and Erb scare the gold “community” because a majority of the“community” sees gold as a hedge against higher prices. If the above chart breaks downand makes a lower low to the spring of 2011 (the height of the last commodity/inflationblowout) then we may have to admit Bernanke wins, Draghi wins, BoJ, China CentralPlanning and all other inflators win. They will have managed to create sustainableeconomies literally out of thin air.The alternative to that is hyperinflation, where an asset grab of epic proportions couldengage with gold under performing things you can actually eat, keep warm with and usefor fuel. This asset grab would come out of a debased monetary system.More realistically however, we might look for the real price of gold to gain support in itssecular uptrend. This would see economic contraction and by extension, further declinein commodities and stocks markets. We have noted all along that the nominal gold pricecan decline in this environment, so people should know why they own the thing. Also,getting out of the ‘death of the dollar’ cult might be wise as well.The USD, as long as implied confidence in our leaders remains intact, may be pulledupward with the real price of gold as a contraction phase bites harder. This is theworld’s reserve currency in which a majority of global transactions are settled. As longas this remains the case, there will be claims on Uncle Buck. USD, as of the moment, isliquidity within the system. Gold by the way, is liquidity outside the system.The average gold bug’s worst enemy is… the inflation tout. It is not the government orthe big banks. It is the individual’s expectations of a lump of shiny metal. If they havenot gotten this simple concept yet, after the recent damage, I am afraid they will neverget it. And they will puke up their gold, which failed to protect them from the dreadedinflation that wasn’t.Bottom LineThe “dreaded inflation” is measured in the mainstream by prices (CPI, etc.), not policy-making actions. Gold is a barometer and the pressure it would indicate could beinflationary or deflationary.If one day you see the gold price skyrocket, then be prepared for a coming (lagging)inflation problem that would indeed eventually show up in prices. This could propelcommodities, resources, productive economies and even stock markets to new heights.
  • If on the other hand gold just hangs around or declines, yet the ‘real’ price as measuredin commodities rises again, the backdrop would be one of continued economiccontraction and declining asset prices.The third alternative is the least likely; gold hangs around or declines and yet the ‘real’price loses its secular uptrend. This would indicate a sustainable economic expansion,created by inflationary policy has engaged. Thus far, inflationary policy has served tobuild in distortions that subject the system to extreme liquidations. That right there isthe continuing case for gold – and for the time being I might add – cash, lots of it.Okay now, that’s the theory. I have got a technical report to write, so lets get toit. NFTRH 235 then goes on to review the technical pictures of the precious metals,precious metals stocks, commodities and stock markets in an unbiased manner. Thishas kept the analysis on the right side of the markets throughout recent dynamicevents. If you would like a hard-working service that does whatever it takes to beprepared for what the market throws at us, consider a subscription to NFTRH.Source: Watch Todays 1pm Market UpdatePortfolio Manager Greg Orrell: My Belief in Gold Has Not Waveredapril 25, 2013The Gold Report: How has your bullish view on the gold sector evolved as a series ofcrises has jolted both the international stock market and the price of gold?Greg Orrell: First off, my belief in gold as a monetary asset has not wavered. Japanbasically admitted that it is bankrupt with its intention to aggressively debase itscurrency. Normally such actions would invoke, and may still, a race to the bottom aseach country engages in economic warfare to deal with its debt issues. At this juncturethe fear of global deflation among the G7 crowd remains its worst nightmare, especiallyas additional stimulus by the Federal Reserve is showing diminishing returns. With highdebt levels in both the private and public sectors around the world, stimulating economicgrowth is proving elusive. These alarming events are setting the stage for the next legup in the dollar gold price, in my opinion. The fiscal and monetary crisis is ongoing andunderscores the necessity of owning gold assets.Though agonizing, the past 18 months have been nothing more than a consolidation forgold from the September 2011 highs of $1,900/ounce ($1,900/oz). The recent decline ingold prices below $1,500/oz is not the end of the bull market in gold, despite the
  • barrage of negative commentary by those wanting to dance on golds grave. Thedestruction of currencies is in full bloom, but it is not a straight line. The problem formany gold investors is that they can see the endgame. Gold prices rise in a straight lineat the end of a monetary system, but we are not there yet. It takes some patience tohold the course while the establishment fights tooth and nail to keep the dollar systemfrom failing.TGR: The years 2009 and 2010 were better for gold stocks. Can you talk about howthings changed after that and how investors can best respond to the precipitous drop inmarket value?GO: A number of factors go into the poor performance of the gold shares over the pastcouple of years besides the gold price. We have seen investor rotation out of defensiveposturing and then the gold miners ended up being their own worst enemy. Gold shareinvestors became concerned, and rightfully so, with rising operating and capital costs,poor capital allocation and growing resource nationalization. This in turn made bullionexchange-traded fund (ETF) products more attractive and prompted a trend of shortingthe miners versus long gold positions.Lets look at the worlds largest producer, Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; ABX:NYSE). Itincurred cost overruns at the Pascua-Lama project in Latin America. And it overpaid for acopper asset in Africa after spinning off its African gold assets a couple of years earlier.Each of these instances led to contraction of cash flow and net asset value multiples forthe whole sector, and set a theme for the industry. At this point, the pendulum hasswung too far, with the shares basically discounting everything that could go wrong andmore. Therefore, if an investor is not in the gold sector, now is an opportune time totake advantage of the significant decline in share values as there are signs of positivechange taking place within the sector.TGR: Can you provide any insight as to why longer-term investors, and also new goldinvestors, should buy into the current gold market?GO: The rationale for owning gold assets remains simple: global deterioration ofsovereign credit and a growing need to debase currencies in order to meet futureobligations, whether its here in the U.S., Europe or Japan. The policy of socializing riskwith monetary and fiscal policy has destroyed the balance sheets of the Western world.We are in a phase of experimental central banking, which I believe is going to end badlydue to the dislocations of capital it has caused through prolonged periods of negativerates.
  • In the event economic growth were to take hold, an unleashing of built up reserves inthe system would set off inflation with a corresponding rise in rates. Just imagine theeffect of a change in the direction of interest rates and the collateral damage that willcreate in the bond markets and the interest rate derivative markets after all of theseyears of managing a zero interest rate policy. The cost of funding the U.S. deficit will riseexponentially. More quantitative easing begets more quantitative easing. Investors needto have some type of asset to balance their portfolios. Policymakers who got us into thismess are unlikely to navigate us out of it. History tells us that only gold is a good placeto be.TGR: Is now a good time to be looking at the gold miners, including the juniors?"The recent decline in gold prices is not the end of the bull market."GO: Absolutely. With current sentiment negative on the miners, it is an incredibleopportunity to buy gold shares and recapture lost value. A major problem for the miningindustry is that its business model is flawed. Gold investors are not strictly interested intaking money from one hole in the ground and putting it in another. Investors wantparticipation in cash flow through dividends and earnings leverage to higher gold pricesalong with the potential for increased shareholder value through discovery . Not payingdividends was great for management, geologists, engineers and everyone but theinvestor who was locked out of the cash flow.Now falling share prices have put the onus on management to compete with the ETFs forinvestor dollars. A number of CEOs are being shown the door. Marginal projects arebeing shelved. Dividends are increasing. Management is beginning to understand thatthe needs of shareholders must be prioritized. Granted, the decline has been painful, butin my 30 years in the business, this is exactly what needed to happen.TGR: Has the balance in your portfolio between bullion, large caps, mid caps, small caps,ETFs, royalties and cash changed over the last five years?GO: Because production is cheap, we are weighting toward the large- and mid-capproducers. They are poised to recapture value as sentiment turns around in that space.The smaller, macro-cap exploration and development companies are bombed out, and anumber of companies are trading where market cap per resource ounce is down to $10or lower. Those companies are interesting as long as they have a balance sheet andtheyre not diluting their shares to keep the lights on. Royalty companies haveoutperformed along with bullion over the last five years because of all the negativefactors that I mentioned previously. But Im not adding to the royalty companies rightnow because the operating companies offer better value.
  • TGR: Youre not adding to bullion?GO: Not at this time. Were keeping bullion around 56%. The miners, in my opinion,offer tremendous value at this point with gold reserves in the ground.TGR: Who are some of the companies you think are attractive in the middle and smallspaces?GO: Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDV:TSX; EVR:ASX) is interesting right here. The shareprice has been washed out because it is a higher-cost producer, around $900/oz. Itsmarket cap is down to under $400 million ($400M) with 300,000 oz (300 Koz) of annualproduction in West Africa, but is slated to grow to 450 Koz over the next couple of years.Thats a 50% increase. Endeavour is driving expansion mostly from internally generatedcash flow."In the past, the majors looked for big projects because they did not want to operate thesmaller mines. Now they are focusing on grade and smaller projects that wont blow upthe company."Esperanza Resources Corp. (EPZ:TSX.V) is cashed up with over $70M and withexperienced management is developing a couple of attractive heap-leach projects inMexico. One project can put up 35 Koz/year and another one can do 110 Koz/year. PanAmerican Silver Corp. (PAA:TSX; PAAS:NASDAQ) is a major shareholder. Esperanzacould be an early day Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI:TSX).Avala Resources Ltd. (AVZ:TSX.V), 50% owned by Dundee Precious Metals Inc.(DPM:TSX), is trading down at dirt prices. The company has an entire Carlin-style belttied up in Serbia where it has outlined close to 3 million ounces (3 Moz) so far. Thecompanys market cap is $1215M, with $9M in the bank; its not a bad optionthe marketwill appreciate the optionality value on the companys assets at some point.TGR: Are you a fan of the royalty model?GO: I am a fan of royalty companies. The revenue comes right off the top so royaltyholders have no exposure to increases in costs and typically have exposure to increasesin reserves. Royalty companies often acquire the royalties from the original propertyowners. Another form of royalty is the creation of a gold or silver stream: the royaltyfirm helps to finance the project and receives gold or silver in return. We have seen apick up of companies selling either net smelter royalties or streaming deals on projectsas a way to finance in a marketplace where equity capital has become expensive.
  • TGR: Are there any royalty companies that people should be looking at?GO: We own a couple of the big ones in our portfolio Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ;RGL:TSX) and Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE). We also own Silver WheatonCorp. (SLW:TSX; SLW:NYSE). Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SSL:TSX) is the up and comingplayer in the royalty space. Its a highly competitive business. Recently a number ofjunior companies have cobbled together questionable projects that most likely wontcome into production in order to claim that they are royalty companies. Franco, Royaland Silver Wheaton have committed significant dollars to individual projects of late,which increases their risk profiles. However, with the diversification of their asset basesat this point, it should not be a problem with all three positioned to grow revenuessubstantially over the next three years. So overall I do like the royalty model.TGR: What is your take on pure-play gold producers?GO: I prefer pure-play gold producers, but those deposits are hard to find. RandgoldResources Ltd. (GOLD:NASDAQ; RRS:LSE)is a good example of a pure gold play, as area number of other intermediates and juniors. But often base metals accompany gold. Allof the major gold producers produce copper: Goldcorp Inc. (G:TSX; GG:NYSE),Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM:NYSE), Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI:TSX; AUY:NYSE;YAU:LSE), New Gold Inc. (NGD:TSX; NGD:NYSE.MKT) and Barrick. Production has beenshelved in many big copper-gold porphyry deposits because it is so capital intensive.Consequently, we are more likely to see the smaller, pure gold projects go forward.In the past, the majors looked for big projects because they did not want to operate thesmaller mines. Now they are focusing on grade and smaller projects that wont blow upthe company. It may be smarter to take on 10 projects producing 150 Koz than to tryand capitalize one project capable of producing 1.5 Moz.TGR: Do any particular firms come to mind in that area?GO: Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI:NYSE) out of South Africa says it is going to focus on smallerprojects, around 150200 Koz. Ive heard the same thing from Newmont. Management isnot going to be punished for making a small acquisition versus a buy of $5 billion. Thebig buy days are not likely to return any time soon. Managements excuse that it wasdifficult to manage multiple smaller assets rather than a couple of large ones has beencast aside as the large projects have shown to expose companies to too much risk.TGR: We both live in California where theres a history of gold mining, but current publicawareness is limited. What the story?
  • GO: There is gold in the Mother Lode Belt in Northern California, in Imperial County inSouthern California and in Siskiyou County in far Northern California. The unemploymentrate in those areas is pretty high, so the residents are open to minings economicbenefits. It is the outsiders who are up in arms about mining. Regulations have been putin place by a very staunch environmental crowd in California, but its no different thanwhat we see around the world where local residents are in favor of a mine because of itseconomic benefits, only to have the professional environmentalists come in and opposethe project.TGR: What junior gold miners in California are worthwhile?GO: One project that has the potential to turn mining around in California is the SutterGold Mining Inc. (SGM:TSX.V; OTCQX:SGMNF) start up of the Lincoln mine on theMother Lode Belt in Amador County. Its a high-grade, underground mine thats financedby its 50% shareholder, the Rand Merchant Bank. The first 150200 feet (150200 ft) ofthat deposit is going to pay back the capital cost of building and developing the mine.The mines on either side of it historically produced down to 4,000 ft. Production will startoff relatively low at about 22 Koz/year. But there are significant growth opportunities atthe Lincoln mine and along the Mother Lode Belt for Sutter to exploit once it hasestablished itself. I am very excited about its prospects.TGR: How do the California companies stack up against Nevada-based mining companies?GO: Atna Resources Ltd. (ATN:TSX) has a heap-leach mine down in Southern Californiathat has been going for quite some time. New Gold has the old Mesquite mine, which is aheap-leach mine near the border of Mexico. But California has hardly any mining activity,or even exploration activity. So I would say it doesnt stack up at this point.TGR: Is that primarily because of environmental regulations or the political climate orthe availability of gold?GO: The perceived difficult environmental and permitting climate in California has been adeterrent. If a company wants to do open-pit mining in California, it must be prepared tobackfill the pit. That is not required in most places.TGR: How expensive is it to backfill?GO: Handling waste material can be quite expensive. So the real California-basedopportunity is underground mining in the Mother Lode Belt and that also is where thehigher-grade ore is.
  • TGR: Maybe well see a replay of 1849.GO: Were not going to see a replay of 1849. What well see is a replay of theunderground mines of between 1900 and 1940. Some of those were just great minesand were the blue chip companies of their day. The gold is still there.TGR: Thank you, Greg.Greg Orrell is the portfolio manager of the OCM Gold Fund. He is also president of OrrellCapital Management, the investment adviser to the fund. Orrell has over 28 years ofexperience in the gold sector as a retail and institutional broker, investment banker andportfolio manager.Want to read more Gold Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter,and youll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent interviewswith industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.DISCLOSURE:1) Peter Byrne conducted this interview for The Gold Report and provides services to TheGold Report as an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the followingcompanies mentioned in this interview: None.2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The GoldReport: Royal Gold Inc., Franco-Nevada Corp. and Goldcorp Inc. Streetwise Reports doesnot accept stock in exchange for its services or as sponsorship payment.3) Greg Orrell: I or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in thisinterview: Endeavour Mining Corp., Avala Resources Ltd., Esperanza Resources Corp.,Newmont Mining Corp., New Gold Inc., Sutter Gold Inc., Randgold Resources Ltd., RoyalGold Inc., Silver Wheaton, Barrick Gold Corp. and Gold Fields Ltd., all owned throughholdings in the OCM Gold Fund. I personally am or my family is paid by the followingcompanies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationshipwith the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid byStreetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressedare my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview foraccuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of theinterview.4) Interviews are edited for clarity. Streetwise Reports does not make editorialcomments or change experts statements without their consent.5) The interview does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged toconsult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a
  • result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening thispage, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports terms of use and full legaldisclaimer.6) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees ormembers of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews onthe site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned and may makepurchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise.Source: Watch Todays 1pm Market UpdatePaper Gold, Physical Gold: The Ultimate DisconnectA look at the recent gold price crash...HOW CAN we explain gold dropping into the $1,300 level in less than a week?asks Casey Research chief economist Bud Conrad.Here are some of the factors:George Soros cut his fund holdings in the biggest gold ETF by 55% in the fourthquarter of 2012.He was not alone: the gold holdings of GLD have contracted all year, down about12.2% at present.On April 9, the FOMC minutes were leaked a day early and revealed that somemembers were discussing slowing the Fed $85 billion per month buying ofTreasuries and MBS. If the money stimulus might not last as long as thoughtbefore, the "printing" may not cause as much Dollar debasement.On April 10, Goldman Sachs warned that gold could go lower and lowered itstarget price. It even recommended getting out of gold.COT Reports showed a decrease in the bullishness of large speculators this year(much more on this technical point below).The lackluster price movement since September 2011 fatigued some speculatorsand trend followers.Cyprus was rumored to need to sell some 400 million Euros worth of its gold tocover its bank bailouts. While small at only about 350,000 ounces, there was afear that other weak European countries with too much debt and sizable goldholdings could be forced into the same action. Cyprus officials have denied thesale, so the question is still in debate, even though the market has alreadymoved. Doug Casey believes that if weak European countries were forced to sell,the gold would mostly be absorbed by China and other sovereign Asian buyers,rather than flood the physical markets.My opinion, looking at the list of items above, is that they are not big enough bythemselves to have created such a large disruption in the gold market.
  • Paper GoldThe paper gold market is best embodied in the futures exchanges. The prices we seequoted all day long moving up and down are taken from the latest trades of futurescontracts. The CME (the old Chicago Mercantile Exchange) has a large flow of orders andprovides the public with an indication of the price of gold.The futures markets are special because very little physical commodity is exchanged;most of the trading is between buyers taking long positions against sellers taking shortpositions, with most contracts liquidated before final settlement and delivery. Thesecontracts require very small amounts of margin – as little as 5% of the value of thecommodity – to gain potentially large swings in the outcome of profit or loss. Thus,futures markets appear to be a speculators paradise. But the statistics show just theopposite: 90% of traders lose their shirts. The other 10% take all the profits from thelosers. More on this below.On April 12, there were big sell orders of 400 tonnes that moved the futures marketlower. Once the futures market makes a big move like that, stops can be triggered,causing it to move even more on its own. It can become a panic, where markets reactmore to fear than fundamentals.Having traded in futures for over two decades, I want to provide some detail on howthese leveraged markets operate. Its important to understand that the structure of thefutures market allows brokers to sell positions if fluctuations cause customers to exceedtheir margin limits and they dont immediately deposit more money to restore theirmargins. When a position goes against a trader, brokers can demand that funds bedeposited within 24 hours (or even sooner at the brokers discretion). If the funds dontappear, the broker can sell the position and liquidate the speculators account. Thisstructure can force prices to fall more than would be indicated by supply and demandfundamentals.When I first signed up to trade futures, I was appalled at the powers the broker wroteinto the contract, which included them having the power to immediately liquidate mypositions at their discretion. I was also surprised at how little screening they did toensure that I was good for whatever positions I put in place, considering the high levelsof leverage they allowed me. Let me tell you that I had many cases where I was told toput up more margin or lose my positions. Those times resulted in me selling at the worstlevel because the market had gone against me.The point of this is that once a market moves dramatically, there are usually stops takenout, positions liquidated, margin calls issued, and little guys like me get taken to thecleaners. Debates rage about the structure of the futures market, but my personalopinion is that a big hammer to the market by a well-heeled big player can forceliquidations, increase losses, and push the momentum of the market much lower thanthe initial impetus would have. Thus, after a huge impact like we saw on April 12, themarket will continue with enough momentum that a well-timed exit of a huge set ofshort positions can provide profits to the well-heeled market mover.Moving from theory to practice, one of the most important things to keep your eye on isthe Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which is issued every Friday. It details thelong and the short positions of three categories of traders. The first category is called"commercials." They are dealers in the physical precious metals – for example, goldminers. The second category is called "non-commercials." They include hedge funds andlarge commercial banks like JP Morgan. Non-commercials are sometimes called "largespeculators." The rest are the small traders, called "non-reporting" since they are notrequired to identify themselves. The ones to watch are the large speculators (non-
  • commercials), as they tend to move with the direction of the market. Individual entitiescould be long or short, but in combination the net position of the group is a key indicator.The following chart shows the price of gold as a blue line at the top, and the next paneldown shows the net position of these large speculators as a black line. You can see thatover the long term, they move together. When the net speculative position is above zero,this group is betting on rising gold prices. Of course, the reverse is true when its belowzero. In this 20-year view, the large speculators were holding net negative positionsduring the lowest point of the gold price, around the year 2000. As the price of gold rose,their positions went net long, and they profited.An interesting thing about the chart above is that the increasing amount of net longsreversed itself before gold peaked in 2011, suggesting that these large speculatorsbecame slightly less bullish all the way back in 2010. The balance remains net long, butit remains to be seen how long that lasts.What is not so obvious is that these large speculators are so big that they can affect themarket as well as profit from it; when they initiate massive positions in a bull market,they drive the price of the futures contracts even higher. Similarly, when they removetheir positions or actually go short, they can push the market lower.So what happened a week ago was that a massive order to sell 400 tonnes of gold all atonce hit the market. Within minutes the price plummeted, and over a two-day periodresulted in the largest drop of the price for futures delivery of gold in 33 years: down$200 per ounce.
  • We dont have the name of the entity that did this. However, the way the gold was soldall at once suggests that the goal was not to get the best price. An investor with aposition of this size should have been smart enough to use sensible trading tactics,issuing much smaller sell orders over a period of time. This would avoid swamping themarket; and some of the orders would be filled at higher prices and thus generate moreprofit. Placing a sell order big enough to affect the overall market price suggests thatsomeone with powerful backing wanted to drive the price of gold down.Such an entity could have been a large speculator who already had a sizable shortposition and could gain by unloading some of its short position once the marketmomentum had driven the price even yet lower. Or it could be a central bank – one thatmight be happy to have the gold price move lower, as it would provide cover for itsprinting of more new money. Of course, it could be some entity that owned longcontracts and wanted to get out of the position all at once. We dont know, but this kindof activity, resulting in the biggest drop in 30 years, raises more than just suspicionwhen we consider how important the price of gold is to many markets around the globe.Can markets really be influenced by big players? Well, was the LIBOR rate accuratelyreported by huge banks? Have players ever tried to corner markets? The answer to allthe above, unfortunately, is yes.Theres an even bigger problem with the legal structure of the futures market: even thesegregated funds on deposit can be pilfered by the broker for the brokerages otherobligations. That is what happened to MF Global customers under Mr. Corzine. (I had anaccount with a predecessor company called Man Financial – the "MF" in the name. I alsohad an account with Refco, which is now defunct. Fortunately, the daggers did not hit myaccount, since I was not a holder when the catastrophes occurred.) My take: the futuresmarket is dangerous, and not a place for beginners.One last note: after the Bankruptcy Act of 2005, the regulations support the brokers, notthe investors, when there are questions of legality about losses in individual investmentaccounts. Casey Research will be producing a report with much more detail on thissubject in the near future.So, what now? We arent going to see a secret memo – no smoking gun to confirm thatwhat happened on April 13 was an attempt to affect the market. Still, the evidence issuspicious. When big entities can gain from putting on big positions, the incentives arebig enough for them to try – LIBOR, Plunge Protection Team, Whale Trade, etc., allsupport this view.Physical GoldPreviously, there was little difference between the physical and paper markets for gold.Yes, there were premiums and delivery charges, but everybody regarded the futuresmarket as the base quote. I believe this is changing; people dont trust the paper marketas they used to.Instead of capitulating to fear of greater losses, the demand for physical gold has hitnew records. The US Mint sold a record 63,500 ounces – a whopping 2 tonnes – of goldon April 17 alone, bringing the total sales for the month to 147,000 ounces; thats morethan the previous two months combined. Indian markets, which are more oriented tophysical metal, now have a premium of US$150 over the futures price in Chicago.Demand at coin dealers has increased as the price has dropped. And premiums are muchbigger than they were as recently as a week ago.
  • Here is a vendor page that quotes purchase prices and calculates the premiums on anongoing basis. It shows premiums of 50% and more in many cases. On eBay, prices forone-ounce silver coins are $33 to $35, where the futures price is quoted as $23. A lookon Friday April 19 shows one vendor out of stock on most items:Clearly, the physical gold market today is sending different signals than the papermarket.The Case for Gold Is Still with UsThe long-term fundamental reasons to hold gold are undeniably still with us. The centralbanks of the world are acting in concert in "currency wars" or "the race to debase." Asthey print more money, the purchasing power of each unit declines. They are caughtbetween the rock of having to keep interest rates low to support their governmentshuge deficits and the hard place of the long-term effect of diluting their currency. If ratesrise, even First World governments will be forced to pay higher interest fees, leading toloss of confidence in their ability to pay back their debt, which will bring on a sovereigndebt crisis like what we have seen in the PIIGS or Argentina recently.The following chart shows the rapid growth in the balance sheets as a ratio to GDP forthe three largest central banks. Ive extrapolated the expected growth into the futurebased on the rate at which they propose to buy up assets. One could argue about how
  • long these growth rates will continue, but the incentives are all there for all centralbanks to bail out their governments and their commercial banks. I fully expect theprinting game to continue to provide the fuel for hard-asset investments like gold andsilver to increase in price in the years to come.Buying Opportunity or Time to Flee?So what does it all mean? The paper price of gold crashed to $1,325 in the wake of thishuge trade. It is now hovering around $1,400. My first reaction is to suggest that this isonly an aberration, and that the fundamentals of the depreciating value of papercurrencies will eventually take the price of gold much higher, making it a buyingopportunity. But what I cant predict is whether big players might again deliver short-term downturns to the market. The momentum in the futures market can make swingssurprisingly larger than the fundamentals of currency valuation would suggest.Traders will be looking for a significant turnaround to the upside in price before enteringlong positions. However, a long-term, fundamentals-based trader has to look at the lowprice as a buying opportunity. I cant prove it, but I think the fundamentals will drive thelong-term market more than these short-term events. The fight between pricing fromthe physical market for bullion and that from the "paper market" of futures is showingsigns of discrimination and disagreement, as the physical market is booming, whileprices set by futures are seemingly pressured to go nowhere.In short, I think this is a strong buying opportunity.Bud Conrad, 24 Apr 13
  • Bud Conrad holds a Bachelor of Engineering degree from Yale and an MBA fromHarvard. He has held positions with IBM, CDC, Amdahl, and Tandem. Currently, heserves as a local board member of the National Association of Business Economics andteaches graduate courses in investing at Golden Gate University. Mr. Conrad, a futuresinvestor for 25 years and a full-time investor for a decade, is also a regular lecturer forAmerican Association of Individual Investors.As a senior researcher for Casey Research, LLC., he produces original research andanalysis for the International Speculator.The Real Gold Price - 24 April 2013How the fundamentals drive gold...THERE HAS been some media piling-on since the recent hard breakdown in gold,writesGary Tanashian in his Notes from the Rabbit Hole.The aptly named Howard Gold explains: "Golds price could be headed much, muchlower".This was written on April 18, when the value assigned to the monetary relic (AKA itsnominal price) resided at $1391 per ounce. So be warned, Mr. Gold advises that goldcould go much much lower. Gold bugs take heed; Mr. Gold himself has put the doublemuch whammy on you!After critical support at $1524 was lost our first downside target of $1440 or so wassawn through like Balsa Wood. Okay fine. For those who micro manage every tick in theprice of gold (I am not one), then here is the situation; the current little rebound mustextend back up to and through the broken support level at $1440 or the next target inthe low $1200s is up next.Now on to the fundamentals, courtesy of Mr. Gold:"But golds price could be headed much, much lower, said Campbell Harvey, a professorat the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. Harvey has looked at gold pricesover the centuries, and concludes that its still trading at lofty multiples of inflation."In the article linked above there is another link where you can download the research ofMr. Harvey and colleague Claude Erb – currently making the rounds like a good gold bughorror movie – that talks about golds real price as measured by CPI and GDP. Boiling itall down, gold is historically over valued as compared to measures of the effects ofinflation – which I define as a rising money supply – on consumer prices and relative toGDP.We will steer clear of the debate about government number fudging, because it is abattle that is not necessary. The Federal Reserve and many of its counterparts aroundthe globe are inflating, or trying their damnedest to inflate. They are using debt
  • instruments to create money out of nowhere and pumping it into big banks, which aresupposedly expected to release the money out to the public.This could one day manifest in an out of control inflation problem (as measured by thelagging effects that Harvey and Erb call inflation, or resolve into a more intensedeflationary phase as the thing that is just a whiff now gains momentum and swallowsthe entire spectrum of inflated assets in one big gulp of illiquidity.The economy has depended on inflationary policy since the age of Inflation on Demandbegan under Alan Greenspans oversight in and around 2000.Ask yourself this; why are they inflating? Why are they printing money at a furious paceif the GDP is real and sustainable? The answer is likely because they know that thefinancial system is a leveraged thing that must not be allowed to start deflating becauseif it starts deleveraging, it is not going to stop until the books are cleared.The authors noted above measure golds real price in CPI and GDP. Here we havealways measured it relative to the commodity complex, which is generally positivelycorrelated to the global economy. Below is gold vs. the CCI commodity index.I had originally thought that a decline to the lower moving average would come with acontinued economic bump, stock bull market and inflation-fueled commodity bounce. Butinstead, gold has tanked vs. commodities even as a deflationary pull starts to take holdwith signs of economic deceleration, commodities down and the stock market potentiallyin some kind of a topping process.Yet the real price is still in a secular uptrend because the ratio has held above anotherparameter point we noted as important. If the blue arrow is confirmed by turning greenone day, the message will continue to be a secular era of economic contraction, whichhas thus far been fought tooth and nail by inflationary policy. That is and has been thecase for gold since day one. Not the case most gold bugs root for, which is inflationaryeffects, the likes of which are used as data points by Harvey and Erb. See?Of course Harvey and Erb scare the gold "community" because a majority of the"community" sees gold as a hedge against higher prices. If the above chart breaks downand makes a lower low to the spring of 2011 (the height of the last commodity/inflationblowout) then we may have to admit Bernanke wins, Draghi wins, BoJ, China CentralPlanning and all other inflators win. They will have managed to create sustainableeconomies literally out of thin air.
  • The alternative to that is hyperinflation, where an asset grab of epic proportions couldengage with gold underperforming things you can actually eat, keep warm with and usefor fuel. This asset grab would come out of a debased monetary system.More realistically however, we might look for the real price of gold to gain support in itssecular uptrend. This would see economic contraction and by extension, further declinein commodities and stock markets. We have noted all along that the nominal gold pricecan decline in this environment, so people should know why they own the thing. Also,getting out of the Death of the Dollar cult might be wise as well.The US Dollar, as long as implied confidence in our leaders remains intact, may be pulledupward with the real price of gold as a contraction phase bites harder. This is the worldsreserve currency in which a majority of global transactions are settled. As long as thisremains the case, there will be claims on Uncle Buck. USD, as of the moment, is liquiditywithin the system. Gold by the way, is liquidity outside the system.The average gold bugs worst enemy is the inflation tout. It is not the government or thebig banks. It is the individuals expectations of a lump of shiny metal. If they have notgotten this simple concept yet, after the recent damage, I am afraid they will never getit. And they will puke up their gold, which failed to protect them from the dreadedinflation that wasnt.The "dreaded inflation" is measured in the mainstream by prices (CPI, etc.), not policy-making actions. Gold is a barometer and the pressure it would indicate could beinflationary or deflationary.If one day you see the gold price skyrocket, then be prepared for a coming (lagging)inflation problem that would indeed eventually show up in prices. This could propelcommodities, resources, productive economies and even stock markets to new heights.If on the other hand gold just hangs around or declines, yet the real price as measuredin commodities rises again, the backdrop would be one of continued economiccontraction and declining asset prices.The third alternative is the least likely; gold hangs around or declines and yet the realprice loses its secular uptrend. This would indicate a sustainable economic expansion,created by inflationary policy has engaged. Thus far, inflationary policy has served tobuild in distortions that subject the system to extreme liquidations. That right there isthe continuing case for gold – and for the time being I might add – cash, lots of it.Gary Tanashian, 24 Apr 13Gary Tanashian successfully owned and operated a progressive medical componentmanufacturing company for 21 years, through various economic cycles. This experiencegave Gary an understanding of and appreciation for global macroeconomics as it relatesto individual markets and sectors. Along the way, Gary developed an almost geek-likeinterest in technical analysis (TA), to add to a long-time interest in human psychology.Various unique macro market ratio indicators were also added to the mix, with the resultbeing a financial market newsletter, Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH) that combinesthese attributes.Panic and chaos management? No just plain good common-sense investment:
  • Trade smart, not with GreedPierre A PienaarResources for the Independent Trader Bloghttp://sulia.com/pierreapienaar/Pierre A Pienaar retired in 2011 from business.
  • I would like to share my passion, my interests, knowledge & experiences in Forex,Options, Gold Investments, Futures, Stocks, Binary Options, Economics, StampCollection, Sports, Gardening, Reading, Photography, and PoliticsSubstantial risk of lossThere is a substantial risk of loss of stocks, forex, commodities, futures, options,and foreign equities are substantial.You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for youin light of your financial condition. You should read, understand, and considerthe Risk Disclosure Statement that is provided by your broker before youconsider trading.