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                                               The Global Snapshot
        Winter 2008/2009

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                                              The Global Snapshot
         Winter 2008/2009 
...
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                                                                   The Global Snapshot
      ...
Winter 2008/2009 
                                                                    The Global Snapshot
        A survey...
Winter 2008/2009 
                                                                  The Global Snapshot
           A surve...
––––––– ––––––– –––– ––– 



                                               The Global Snapshot
        Winter 2008/2009 
...
The Global Snapshot
           Winter 2008/2009 

           A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment market...
Winter 2008/2009 
                                           The Global Snapshot
  A survey of hiring and firing trends in...
The Global Snapshot
          Winter 2008/2009 

         A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets a...
Winter 2008/2009 
                                      The Global Snapshot
  A survey of hiring and firing trends in key ...
––––––– ––––––– –––– ––– 



                                                  The Global Snapshot
          Winter 2008/2...
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Antals Global Snapshot Winter 2009

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The Antal International ‘Global Snapshot’ is a quarterly survey of hiring (and firing) trends in some of the world’s most important employment markets and in those likely to join this group over the coming decade. This second report in the series, covering the winter of 2008/09, is based upon material sourced from over 2700 businesses in commerce, industry and the financial services sector in 107 countries on four continents.

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Transcript of "Antals Global Snapshot Winter 2009"

  1. 1. ––––––– ––––––– –––– –––  The Global Snapshot Winter 2008/2009 A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world  The Antal International ‘Global Snapshot’ The Antal International ‘Global Snapshot’ is a quarterly survey +44 (0)870 770 0020 UK of hiring (and firing) trends in some of the world’s most +32 (0)2 719 04 85 Belgium +55 62 8131 7723 Brazil important employment markets and in those likely to join this +359 2 9523660 Bulgaria group over the coming decade. This second report in the +86(10) 6410 8866 China series, covering the winter of 2008/09, is based upon material +385 1 4576 200 Croatia sourced from over 2700 businesses in commerce, industry +20 2 3337 4663 Egypt and the financial services sector in 107 countries on four +33 (0) 143 49 52 21 France continents. +49 69 976 750 Germany +233 277 551 561 Ghana   +36 1 336 2414 Hungary +91 (0)22 4010 8100 India +39 02 80 60 601 Italy +352 276 26 701 Luxembourg +356 27 377443 Malta +31 (0) 20 751 6100 Netherlands +234 1 741 4783 Nigeria +00 92 21 4312155 Pakistan +63 2 479 1859 Philippines +48 22 58 36 800 Poland +4 031 6201 025 Romania +7 (495) 935 8606 Russia +65 6622 5570 Singapore +27 11 455 2744 South Africa +34 91 310 60 15 Spain +00 41 (0)71912 4850 Switzerland +9 0212 244 08 41 Turkey +971 4 397 4541 UAE We hope that you find it both interesting and useful. Tony Goodwin Chairman and CEO Antal International   snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com 1 INTRODUCTION
  2. 2. ––––––– ––––––– –––– –––  The Global Snapshot Winter 2008/2009  A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world  About Antal International +44 (0)870 770 0020 UK Founded in 1993, Antal International is a management and +32 (0)2 719 04 85 Belgium professional recruitment specialist with a particular focus on +55 62 8131 7723 Brazil the sourcing and retention of candidates at middle and +359 2 9523660 Bulgaria senior level. One of the first recruitment organisations to +86(10) 6410 8866 China +385 1 4576 200 devote substantial resources to emerging markets, the Croatia +20 2 3337 4663 Egypt company now has 52 offices in 28 countries and works with +33 (0) 143 49 52 21 France many of the world’s most successful and ambitious multi- +49 69 976 750 Germany nationals. +233 277 551 561 Ghana +36 1 336 2414 Hungary +91 (0)22 4010 8100 India +39 02 80 60 601 Italy +352 276 26 701 Luxembourg +356 27 377443 Malta +31 (0) 20 751 6100 Netherlands +234 1 741 4783 Nigeria +00 92 21 4312155 Pakistan +63 2 479 1859 Philippines +48 22 58 36 800 Poland +4 031 6201 025 Romania Methodology +7 (495) 935 8606 Russia +65 6622 5570 Singapore This edition of the Antal +27 11 455 2744 South Africa International ‘Global Snapshot’ +34 91 310 60 15 Spain is based upon survey forms +00 41 (0)71912 4850 Switzerland and telephone interviews +9 0212 244 08 41 Turkey +971 4 397 4541 completed by line and HR UAE   managers in 2762 companies, professional partnerships and financial institutions across 107 countries in the winter of 2008/09. In-depth information is provided on 23 key employment markets. Each respondent was asked whether they were currently hiring or letting go professional/managerial staff and whether they intended to over the coming quarter. All respondents were guaranteed anonymity to encourage open and honest answers. snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com 2 ABOUT ANTAL
  3. 3. ––––––– ––––––– –––– –––  The Global Snapshot Winter 2008/2009  ––––––– ––––––– –––– –––  A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world  Germany Germany Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Despite the fact that the global downturn has now hit the Reflecting the fact levelsGermany has activity arerelatively German economy, that of recruitment been left actually Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter    unscathed by they‘credit crunch’, employers with 81% of higher than the were in the autumn in the country Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level are recruiting looking for managerial and professional level respondents heavily at staff andopposed to 57% lastdemand for such staff will actually as are expecting that quarter. However there are some Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter  increase uncertainty about the early part of 2009 with only signs of over the next quarter. 64% of those questioned expecting to hire during this time. Hiring plans are particularly positive in the country in Western Europe  the key discipline of engineering UK  Hiring activity in the UK is down slightly on the previous quarter with 28% of respondents currently seeking staff at managerial and professional level in contrast to 31% in the autumn. Optimism about the future also seems to have Germany been eroded with only 18% expecting to hire over the next three months, down from 48% last time. However, the effects of the general downturn are by no means uniform. The market for senior sales and marketing professionals, for example, appears to be particularly active, perhaps due to a desire get the most out of this key business function by UK recruiting and retaining high quality staff. The survey helped to give credence to the perception that UK the country is experiencing a downturn in economic activity   Netherlands is feeding into the demand for managerial and and that this Despite predictionsHowever the polleconomy will fall into professional staff. that the Dutch did produce two key recession in 2009, it appears better placed topicture. First, findings which qualify this generally gloomy weather the storm than do appear its European Union about the future employers many of relatively optimistic partners. As a resultare consequently expecting to ramp up their hiring and current and future hiring intentions remain relatively Scotland positive, the year progresses. And secondly, medium-sized plans as particularly amongst smaller and the hiring and companies that are no means a uniform the downturn the firing picture is by taking advantage of one. Whilst to seize market and property sectors and certain parts larger construction share and high quality staff from their of the counterparts. Thereindustry are suffering a real crisisthe financial services are also signs that businesses in of country are organisations in other areas suchout’ telecoms confidence, in the process of ‘clearing as weaker members of their generally positive about hiring. and technology are management teams right across the Netherlands spectrum. Spain  The well-publicised troubles of the Spanish economy are now being reflected in the jobs market with current hiring intentions dropping sharply from 63% in the autumn to 31% now and future hiring plans down from 50% to 22%. Spain Italy  Hiring at managerial/professional level was looking considerably healthy in the poll in the autumn of 2008, yet Spain in the current climate this has dropped from 73% to 51%. Although wellItaly the downturn has businesses an increase However, for over half of Spanish not meant questioned Italy arefiring since autumn the deteriorating economy and a in currently hiring, resulting in relative stability across slowing of growth in GDP seem set to bite into the the senior jobs marketplace. managerial/professional employment market next quarter Switzerland  unless the government can take strong remedial action as a   matter of urgency. The figures reflect a relatively static market at present, but suggest a more positive outlook for hiring and a drop in the shedding of professional and managerial staff over the Italy Switzerland coming months. Whilst Italy shares many economic and social characteristics with Spain, the employment market for  Malta  Current and future hiring intentions in Malta appearspositive managers and professionals in the country remain to be a although there are one. relatively employers questioned much more healthy a 47% of high percentage of believed that trends for intending to shed professional and business were positive, 29% that businesses on the island Malta managerial staff. and only 23% felt that they were negative. they were stable snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com snapshot@antal.com Western Europe 3
  4. 4. Winter 2008/2009  The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world  Western Europe UK  Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Hiring activity in the UK is down slightly on the previous Sector Analysis Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter quarter with 28% of respondents currently seeking staff at Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level managerial and professional level in contrast to 31% in the autumn. Optimism about the future also seems to have Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter  been eroded with only 18% expecting to hire over the next three months, down from 48% last time. However, the effects of the general downturn are by no means uniform. UK by Sector  The market for senior sales and marketing professionals, for example, appears to be particularly active, perhaps due to a desire get the most out of this key business function by recruiting and retaining high quality staff. Energy,   Renewable, Netherlands  Oil and Gas Despite predictions that the Dutch economy will fall into recession in 2009, it appears better placed to weather the storm than many of its European Union partners. As a result current and future hiring intentions remain relatively Financial Services positive, particularly amongst smaller and medium-sized companies that are taking advantage of the downturn to seize market share and high quality staff from their larger counterparts. There are also signs that businesses in the IT and Telecoms country are in the process of ‘clearing out’ weaker members of their management teams right across the spectrum. IT Contract Sales and Marketing The Netherlands by Sector  Accounting and finance Sales & Marketing IT and Technology Energy 3 www.antal.com Western Europe 4 snapshot@antal.com
  5. 5. Winter 2008/2009  The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world  Hungary Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Hungary ran into major economic problems shortly after the publication of our last survey in the autumn, leading to an Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level IMF-led rescue loan of over $25 billion. As a result of the Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter turmoil hiring levels are down – from 74% to 45% - although 50% firmly intend to hire over the next quarter in comparison to 59% in the autumn.  Poland  Eastern Europe and Eurasia  Even Eastern Europe’s most successful economy has been hit by the downturn with current hiring levels down from 93% in the autumn to 60% now and the percentage of organisations expecting to recruit in the coming quarter dropping from 63% to 54%. However the employment market is still relatively robust and the general consensus is that the country will escape the worst effects of the financial Hungary storm thanks to healthy domestic consumption, a strong banking sector and a well-balanced economy less reliant on exports than many of its neighbours.  Bulgaria  Hiring levels in Bulgaria have dropped dramatically over the Poland last quarter from 89% to 28% and intentions to recruit in the next three months from 90% to 29%. However this is, to some extent countered by an equally significant reduction in the shedding of professional and managerial staff from 49% in the autumn to only 4% now, whilst none of the businesses questioned expressed an expectation that they Bulgaria would further reduce staffing levels in the coming quarter.  Romania  In sharp contrast to most other countries featured in this report, Romania is showing a significant increase in hiring levels – up from 37% in the autumn to 54% now – although Romania the current employment drive may mean that these high levels drop over the coming three months.  Croatia  Croatia is one of the few other countries to join Romania experiencing an upsurge in recruitment with 58% of Croatia businesses currently hiring in comparison to 41% in the autumn. Many of the employers questioned continued to complain about the shortage of good professional and managerial staff, particularly in highly technical areas such as IT and engineering, and of the spiralling levels of pay expected by the best candidates.  Turkey Turkey  Despite the fact that demand for qualified and able managers and professionals is still exceeding supply hiring levels are down, albeit slightly from 73% in the autumn to 60% this winter. Overall, however, the employment market in Turkey remains relatively buoyant. Russia Russia  Russia is not in recession, but it has experienced some of the effects of the economic downturn in other markets. Certain disciplines and industry sectors have been affected and others less so. Investment banking has been very volatile and there has been a significant outflow of talent in this area with bleak prospects for the intermediate future. Construction, being heavily reliant on financing, has also seen significant problems relating to the lack of credit, as have retail chains that have traditionally financed aggressive regional expansion through debt. Large western IT vendors are treating the market very cautiously, however to take up the slack many medium and small companies in the IT sector are actually expanding. www.antal.com Eastern Europe 5 snapshot@antal.com
  6. 6. ––––––– ––––––– –––– –––  The Global Snapshot Winter 2008/2009  A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world  Eastern Europe and Eurasia Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Sector Analysis  Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Poland by Sector  Accounting and Finance Legal Banking Sales and Marketing IT and Telecoms Manufacturing and Technology FMCG Pharmacy OGE HR Russia by Sector  IT    Sales and Marketing      Banking and Finance    FMCG  snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Eastern Europe 6
  7. 7. The Global Snapshot Winter 2008/2009  A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world  Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Latin America, Africa and the Middle East  Brazil  Brazil, the region's largest economy, has now pumped tens of billions of dollars into shoring up its currency and once- Brazil booming housing and automotive sectors, while announcing an additional $3.6 billion in tax cuts, along with $10 billion in credit for indebted Brazilian firms. Hiring levels still remain very high but seem set to drop during the first quarter of 2009.  Egypt Egypt The level of hiring remains high in Egypt with nearly three quarters of organisations questioned in the process of taking on new staff. 83% of businesses definitely intend to recruit over the coming quarter.  UAE UAE  Despite a slight dampening of the ‘boom’ conditions seen in recent years across the Gulf, the area’s economy remains robust and demand for professional and managerial staff is high. The UAE in particular is still benefiting from the Nigeria migration of professional workers from the US and Western Europe seeking refuge from actual or threatened downturns in their own countries.  Nigeria  As is the case in many of the world’s emerging economies, South Africa high calibre professional and managerial staff are in short supply in Nigeria and current hiring rates are consequently relatively high. However businesses in the country share the general uncertainty about the coming year and are particularly concerned about the possible adverse effects of falling oil prices.  South Africa  Although certain sectors of the economy have already entered recession and the government has responded by cutting interest rates, there is still high demand for managers and professionals, particularly in and around the main population centres such as Cape Town and Johannesburg and in key sectors such as FMCG and engineering. Current recruitment is consequently healthy although South African businesses appear as hesitant as others around the globe about the coming quarter.   snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Africa & UAE 7
  8. 8. Winter 2008/2009  The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world  South Africa Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Sector Analysis  Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter South Africa by Sector  Accountancy Construction Energy Engineering Financial Services FMCG IT and Technology snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Africa & UAE 8
  9. 9. The Global Snapshot Winter 2008/2009  A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world  Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Asia  India  After a period of extremely strong demand for qualified managers and professionals across practically every sector we are now seeing a degree of caution entering the hiring India process. Intentions to recruit in the coming quarter are down since the last report in the autumn of 2008.  Singapore  Worries about Singapore’s economy have fed into the recruitment of professional and managerial staff with only 6% of businesses firmly intending to hire in the coming quarter.   Singapore Philippines  So far the employment market in the Philippines appears to be relatively robust with current levels of hiring at professional and managerial level at a high 70% and expected to rise to 76% over the coming quarter. Firing levels are currently low although organisations expect them to rise slightly during the early part of 2009.  Philippines China  As confidence falters around the globe, even the world’s newest economic superpower seems to have been affected. Hiring levels are down noticeably from the extremely high levels seen in the autumn 2008 survey, although they still remain relatively buoyant in comparison to those in many other countries. The global downturn obviously has a part to play in this, but so too has the fact China  that China is still not producing enough of the right type of graduate from its burgeoning university system. The country is still struggling to train enough managers and professionals with real understanding of the commercial world or of key practical skills such as engineering or industrial management.  snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Asia 9
  10. 10. Winter 2008/2009  The Global Snapshot A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world  China Currently hiring at managerial/professional level Sector Analysis Expect to hire at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter Currently letting people go at managerial/professional level Expect to let people go at managerial/professional level over the coming quarter China by Sector  Automotive Accountancy              Banking              Media  snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com ASIA Asia 10
  11. 11. ––––––– ––––––– –––– –––  The Global Snapshot Winter 2008/2009  A survey of hiring and firing trends in key employment markets around the world  Conclusions “….like a duck hit over the head.” +44 (0)870 770 0020 UK +32 (0)2 719 04 85 Belgium The British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once remarked that a +55 62 8131 7723 Brazil week is a long time in politics. +359 2 9523660 Bulgaria +86(10) 6410 8866 China And so is three months in the middle of a credit crisis. +385 1 4576 200 Croatia +20 2 3337 4663 Egypt Despite all the doom and gloom in the media, when we undertook +33 (0) 143 49 52 21 France our last survey of hiring and firing around the globe, most countries +49 69 976 750 Germany appeared confident about the future. Now that confidence has +233 277 551 561 Ghana faltered, but has it evaporated completely? +36 1 336 2414 Hungary +91 (0)22 4010 8100 India Let’s look at the good news. There is no denying that there has +39 02 80 60 601 Italy certainly been a slowdown in economies across the world and a +352 276 26 701 Luxembourg consequent knock-on effect on jobs and career development +356 27 377443 Malta prospects for professionals and managers at all levels. However +31 (0) 20 751 6100 Netherlands this does not mean that recruitment has come to a complete stop +234 1 741 4783 Nigeria by any means. Overall the research found that well over half of all +00 92 21 4312155 Pakistan businesses questioned were currently hiring and 43% intended to +63 2 479 1859 Philippines hire in the coming quarter. The hiring of locals and returnees in +48 22 58 36 800 Poland preference to international staff in countries such as China, India +4 031 6201 025 Romania and Russia has really taken off, for example, as organisations look +7 (495) 935 8606 Russia for best value from their hires. Rather than being a classic +65 6622 5570 Singapore downturn, this one seems to be developing a very specific nature, +27 11 455 2744 South Africa +34 91 310 60 15 which hits certain countries and sectors extremely hard whilst Spain +00 41 (0)71912 4850 Switzerland leaving others relatively or even completely unscathed. The major +9 0212 244 08 41 Turkey problem we face is one of uncertainty. To borrow another quote +971 4 397 4541 UAE from the past – this time from Abraham Lincoln commenting on one   of his generals – it seems that a large part of the global business community is currently “confused and stunned, like a duck hit over the head” with obvious consequences for the professional and managerial jobs market. Contact Us This year, perhaps even the next couple of years in global jobs If you would like any further information markets will certainly be quieter than the preceding ones – the about material included in this report or boom is on hold, at least for now. What organisations and would like to reserve a copy of the next individuals need to do now is to accept that a downturn is here and ‘Global Snapshot’, contact Sarah Jones overcome it. That means acknowledging that pay will not keep at snapshot@antal.com or your local rising all the time, that desirable jobs will be more difficult to get and Antal office – see www.antal.com for that the workplace will be harder, more competitive and more more details. unforgiving than it has been for some time. Once this happens the panic will stop and organisations and individuals alike will get on with getting back to basics - focusing on their clients and customers, delivering good products and good service and starting us out on the path to economic recovery. snapshot@antal.com www.antal.com Contact Us 11

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