It’s Worse Than We Thought Global Warming Prepared for Philazine by Philip Woodard – 2008 – all rights reserved ©

Conservative Estimates Scientists are temperamentally conservative Almost all their original estimates about the effects of global warming have underplayed the actual measured consequences When their original estimates have been re-measured against actual changes, the effects have most often been more dire than they originally predicted

Scientists are temperamentally conservative

Almost all their original estimates about the effects of global warming have underplayed the actual measured consequences

When their original estimates have been re-measured against actual changes, the effects have most often been more dire than they originally predicted

NASA’s Dr. James Hansen One of the world's leading climate scientists warned in October 2008 that the EU and its international partners must urgently rethink their targets for cutting carbon dioxide 3 .1 He says scientists have grossly underestimated the scale of the problem “The target we have all been aiming for is a disaster - a guaranteed disaster”

One of the world's leading climate scientists warned in October 2008 that the EU and its international partners must urgently rethink their targets for cutting carbon dioxide 3 .1

He says scientists have grossly underestimated the scale of the problem

“The target we have all been aiming for is a disaster - a guaranteed disaster”

Two Examples Nitrogen trifluoride, a green house gas that traps about 17,000 times more heat than carbon dioxide, wasn’t even counted in the 1997 Kyoto protocols 4.1 A gas from the manufacture of liquid crystal displays 2006 estimate was 1,200 metric tons in the atmosphere 2008 estimate was 5,400 metric tons in the atmosphere NASA scientist says melting ice will cause a 50 cm rise by 2100 Rate of ice loss from Greenland has tripled since 2004

Nitrogen trifluoride, a green house gas that traps about 17,000 times more heat than carbon dioxide, wasn’t even counted in the 1997 Kyoto protocols 4.1

A gas from the manufacture of liquid crystal displays

2006 estimate was 1,200 metric tons in the atmosphere

2008 estimate was 5,400 metric tons in the atmosphere

NASA scientist says melting ice will cause a 50 cm rise by 2100

Rate of ice loss from Greenland has tripled since 2004

Current Estimates – 6 Degrees Hotter by 2100 3.1 A one degree increase The Great Plains from Texas to the Canadian prairies become a desert: Sahara-like with no agriculture Resurgent North African monsoons bring more rainfall to the Sahara (Chad, Nigeria and Cameroon) No snow or ice on Mt. Kilimanjaro or the Alps Hotter than the one degree rise at both poles A two degree increase European summers routinely as hot as record breaker, 2003 Southern Mediterranean looses one fifth of its rainfall Greenland ice sheet completes its melting; Andean and Peruvian glaciers melt Sierra Nevada snow pack looses 75 percent of its water 30 percent of animal species vanish from habitat loss

A one degree increase

The Great Plains from Texas to the Canadian prairies become a desert: Sahara-like with no agriculture

Resurgent North African monsoons bring more rainfall to the Sahara (Chad, Nigeria and Cameroon)

No snow or ice on Mt. Kilimanjaro or the Alps

Hotter than the one degree rise at both poles

A two degree increase

European summers routinely as hot as record breaker, 2003

Southern Mediterranean looses one fifth of its rainfall

Greenland ice sheet completes its melting; Andean and Peruvian glaciers melt

Sierra Nevada snow pack looses 75 percent of its water

30 percent of animal species vanish from habitat loss

Glaciers

Current Estimates – 6 Degrees Hotter by 2100 A three degree increase Guaranteed if we don’t significantly reduce atmospheric carbon by 2018 Amazonian basin dries up – no longer a jungle but a desert This is a tipping point bringing about by itself another one degree rise Much of the planet becomes uninhabitable – Southern Africa and Australia are barren deserts 100s of millions or billions of refugees migrate north looking for food Winter flooding threatens low-lying Western European regions A four degree increase Arctic and Siberian permafrosts melt Another tipping point bringing about another one degree rise all by itself Italy, Spain, Greece and Turkey have Saharan like climates Sea levels rise by between 9 and 88 cm (3.5 inches to 35 inches) A 36-inch increase in sea levels would swamp every city on the East Coast of the United States, from Miami to Boston

A three degree increase

Guaranteed if we don’t significantly reduce atmospheric carbon by 2018

Amazonian basin dries up – no longer a jungle but a desert

This is a tipping point bringing about by itself another one degree rise

Much of the planet becomes uninhabitable – Southern Africa and Australia are barren deserts

100s of millions or billions of refugees migrate north looking for food

Winter flooding threatens low-lying Western European regions

A four degree increase

Arctic and Siberian permafrosts melt

Another tipping point bringing about another one degree rise all by itself

Italy, Spain, Greece and Turkey have Saharan like climates

Sea levels rise by between 9 and 88 cm (3.5 inches to 35 inches)

A 36-inch increase in sea levels would swamp every city on the East Coast of the United States, from Miami to Boston

Warming Forecasts

Current Estimates – 6 Degrees Hotter by 2100 A six degree increase Climate like the Permian period, 251 million years ago, 95% of species go extinct Soil erosion removes most the planet’s plant cover Deserts in central Europe and near the Arctic Circle A five degree increase Crocodiles and turtles in the Canadian high Arctic Tropical breadfruit trees grow on the coast of Greenland Forests grow in central Antarctica

A six degree increase

Climate like the Permian period, 251 million years ago, 95% of species go extinct

Soil erosion removes most the planet’s plant cover

Deserts in central Europe and near the Arctic Circle

A five degree increase

Crocodiles and turtles in the Canadian high Arctic

Tropical breadfruit trees grow on the coast of Greenland

Forests grow in central Antarctica

Polar Ice Caps – The Big Deal Sea level rise: with 5,773,000 cubic miles of water in ice caps, glaciers, and permanent snow, a complete melt means the seas would rise about 230 feet Ocean desalinization: fresh water will make oceans less salty, changing ocean currents and atmospheric temperatures Species die off: Only the most adaptable of Arctic species will survive No ice means no reflection : darker colored ocean water will absorb more sunlight, further warming the Earth

Sea level rise: with 5,773,000 cubic miles of water in ice caps, glaciers, and permanent snow, a complete melt means the seas would rise about 230 feet

Ocean desalinization: fresh water will make oceans less salty, changing ocean currents and atmospheric temperatures

Species die off: Only the most adaptable of Arctic species will survive

No ice means no reflection : darker colored ocean water will absorb more sunlight, further warming the Earth

What We Know for Sure Global surface temperatures have increased 0.74 ± 0.18 ° C (1.33 ± 0.32 ° F ) during the 100 years ending in 2005

Global surface temperatures have increased 0.74 ± 0.18 ° C (1.33 ± 0.32 ° F ) during the 100 years ending in 2005

Global surface temperatures have spiked since the Industrial Revolution in 1800 Earth’s Temperature: Last 2000 Years

Global surface temperatures have spiked since the Industrial Revolution in 1800

Surface temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations correlate Consensus Cause

Surface temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations correlate

Surface temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations correlate Consensus Cause

Surface temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations correlate

Who’s to Blame Green House Gases by Country

Green House Gases by Country

What’s Happened by 2008 – Part One One in eight bird species, or 1,226 of almost 10,000 bird species, are at risk of extinction 14.1 2007 marked highest ever summer temperatures in the Arctic -- 9 ◦ F or 5 ◦ C above historic averages 28 of Yosemite’s animal species are moving their range to higher elevations – 1600 feet higher 150,000 people, says the World Health Organization, die every year by climate-change-related issues 14.2 Greenland and Antarctic Ice sheets are melting Terrestrial carbon is being released from the permafrost regions Methane hydrates are being released from coastal sediments

One in eight bird species, or 1,226 of almost 10,000 bird species, are at risk of extinction 14.1

2007 marked highest ever summer temperatures in the Arctic -- 9 ◦ F or 5 ◦ C above historic averages

28 of Yosemite’s animal species are moving their range to higher elevations – 1600 feet higher

150,000 people, says the World Health Organization, die every year by climate-change-related issues 14.2

Greenland and Antarctic Ice sheets are melting

Terrestrial carbon is being released from the permafrost regions

Methane hydrates are being released from coastal sediments

Temperature Changes 1900 - 2000 16.1

What’s Happened by 2008 – Part Two Glaciers not at the North and South poles have decreased by 50% since the end of the 19th century 17.1 Summer lasts longer in the Northern hemisphere – just in the last five years 17.2 High temperatures in October are about 1 degree above their historic averages In September high temperatures are almost 2 degrees above their historic averages Precipitation is increasing, particularly at northern mid-high latitudes with much of the increase coming in more frequent heavy rainfall events

Glaciers not at the North and South poles have decreased by 50% since the end of the 19th century 17.1

Summer lasts longer in the Northern hemisphere – just in the last five years 17.2

High temperatures in October are about 1 degree above their historic averages

In September high temperatures are almost 2 degrees above their historic averages

Precipitation is increasing, particularly at northern mid-high latitudes with much of the increase coming in more frequent heavy rainfall events

Spruce Trees Break Thru Arctic Tundra

What’s Happened by 2008 – Part Three Mean sea level has been rising at an average rate of 1.7 mm/year (plus or minus 0.5mm) over the past 100 years Average global temperatures have increased 1.8 ◦ F or 1 ◦ C over the past 100 years Northern Hemisphere snow cover has remained below average since 1987 and has decreased by about 10% since 1966 Lake Chad, which supports 20 million people, has shrunk to 5% of its size in 1973

Mean sea level has been rising at an average rate of 1.7 mm/year (plus or minus 0.5mm) over the past 100 years

Average global temperatures have increased 1.8 ◦ F or 1 ◦ C over the past 100 years

Northern Hemisphere snow cover has remained below average since 1987 and has decreased by about 10% since 1966

Lake Chad, which supports 20 million people, has shrunk to 5% of its size in 1973

What’s Happened by 2008 – Part Four The five hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997 and the 10 hottest since 1990 The warmest year on record – 2005 Inhabitants of some small and low island countries are already abandoning their islands In American south west, fire frequency is up by 400 percent and land burned is up by 650 percent since 1970 21.1

The five hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997 and the 10 hottest since 1990

The warmest year on record – 2005

Inhabitants of some small and low island countries are already abandoning their islands

In American south west, fire frequency is up by 400 percent and land burned is up by 650 percent since 1970 21.1

Endnotes 2.1 Live Science web site, Andrea Thompson, October 23, 2008 BACK 3.1 Ed Pilkington , “Climate Target is Not Radical Enough,” The Guardian, April 7, 2008 4.1 Mark Lynas , “Six Steps to Hell,” The Guardian, April 23, 2007 BACK 14.1 Alister Dolye , “Birds' Decline Shows Wider Damage Rueters News, October 9, 2008 BACK 14.2 Doug Struck , “Climate Change Drives Disease To New Territory, Washington Post, May 5, 2006 BACK 17.1 Green Facts web site, Update 2007 BACK 17.1 Munichre , web site, “Retreat of the Glaciers,” 2008 BACK 17.2 Shaun McKinnon , “It's Official: Summer's Heat Lingers Longer into Fall,” Arizona Republic, Oct. 25, 2008 BACK 21.1 Natu re Conservancy , website, “Climate Change Impacts,” Oct. 25, 2008 BACK

2.1 Live Science web site, Andrea Thompson, October 23, 2008 BACK

3.1 Ed Pilkington , “Climate Target is Not Radical Enough,” The Guardian, April 7, 2008

4.1 Mark Lynas , “Six Steps to Hell,” The Guardian, April 23, 2007 BACK

14.1 Alister Dolye , “Birds' Decline Shows Wider Damage

Rueters News, October 9, 2008 BACK

14.2 Doug Struck , “Climate Change Drives Disease To New Territory, Washington Post, May 5, 2006 BACK

17.1 Green Facts web site, Update 2007 BACK

17.1 Munichre , web site, “Retreat of the Glaciers,” 2008 BACK

17.2 Shaun McKinnon , “It's Official: Summer's Heat Lingers Longer into Fall,” Arizona Republic, Oct. 25, 2008 BACK

21.1 Natu re Conservancy , website, “Climate Change Impacts,” Oct. 25, 2008 BACK