Q3 2012 Marketbeat Presentation Eng Main

871 views
823 views

Published on

A presentation on the Russian economy and real estate market.

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
871
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
9
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
7
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Q3 2012 Marketbeat Presentation Eng Main

  1. 1. MARKETBEATREAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATEQ3 2012 OCTOBER 2012
  2. 2. INFORMATION RESOURCES MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 WEB SOCIAL NETWORKS iCushmanCWRUSSIA.RUMarket information, contacts news Mobile application for Commercial realMARKETBEAT.RU estate professionals, available at iTunesLatest Marketbeat report, reportsarchive, interactive maps CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 1
  3. 3. INTERACTIVE MAPS MARKETBEAT Click to open in browser Q3 2012OFFICES SHOPPING WAREHOUSES CENTERS Для работы интерактивной карты необходим You need Flash player installed and internet CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 2 Flash Player и соединение с интернет connection for interactive map to run
  4. 4. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012AGENDAMACROECONOMYRETAILOFFICEWAREHOUSELANDCAPITAL MARKETS CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 3
  5. 5. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012MACROECONOMY CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 4
  6. 6. MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Russia’s economy is competitive INTERNATIONAL LOCAL INDICATORS COMPARISONS UK 2011 Q3 2012 2012F 2012F REAL ECONOMY France GDP 4.3% 4.0% 3.4% 3%Germany INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 4.7% 3.1% 3.1% 5% Brazil CONSUMER SECTOR US RETAIL TRADE TURNOVER 7.0% 6.6% 6.3% 4% REAL WAGES 4.2% 10% 6.3% 8.8% Russia REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME 0.8% 3.6% 5.0% CPI 6.1% 5.2% 5 - 6% 6% India RUR/USD ANNUAL AVERAGE 29.39 30.99 27.9 30.7 China -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% – Ministry for Economic development has left its forecast for 2012 unchanged despite of– IMF has decreased the GDP forecast to recent deceleration 3.4%, but Russia still looks competitive CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 5
  7. 7. OIL PRICE AND BUDGET PERFORMANCE MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 500 120 • The budget is performing with small 1.4% GDP surplus 400 100 • One year ago the surplus was 2.3% GDP 300 80 • Average URALS price in Q1- US$ / bblbn US$ 200 60 Q3 2012 was $111 / bbl 100 40 0 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD -100 0 Budget revenue (left) Budget expenditure (left) Deficit / Surplus (left) Urals actual average (right) CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 6
  8. 8. CAPITAL OUTFLOW MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 100 • The capital outflow is comparable to 2011, but the pattern has changed. 50 • The outflow is mainly generated by non-banking sector 0 increasing and is comparable to the one in 2008, whereas theUSD bn banking sector provided small -50 inflow. -100 -150 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD Total outflow Banks Other sectors CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 7
  9. 9. CONSUMERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND CONSUMER LOANS AND DEPOSITS GROWTH INDUSTRIAL OPTIMISM 20% 30% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% -10% -10% -20% -20% -30% -40% -30% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Consumer confidence index, % Industrial optimism index, % Deposits growth, % Loans growth, %• Consumer confidence is decreasing on the negative short-term expectations• According to CBR statistics, consumers withdraw money from banks, loans growth is decelerating. The role of saving pattern isincreasing, with less trust to banks as to saving instruments. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 8
  10. 10. RETAIL MARKET VOLUME MARKETBEAT Q3 2012Russia is No.4 Retail Market in Europe RETAIL TURNOVER IN EUROPE* RUSSIA RETAIL TURNOVER ** 20% Others** 56.1 Slovakia 15.3 Croatia 15.7 Hungary 30.1 15% Romania 31.9 Ireland 36.6 France 530.3 Czech Republic 39.7 Germany 528.3 Finland 50.3 10% Portugal 55.2 Norway 55.6 5% Denmark 57.6 United Greece 59.6 Kingdom 455.7 0% Austria 64.9 Sweden 88.5 -5% Switzerland 90.9 Belgium 93.6 Russia 433.7 -10% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Poland 108.7 Netherlands Spain 264.3 Italy 329.7 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 123.1 Turkey 181.6RUSSIA RETAIL TURNOVER GROWTH IS DECELERATING BUT STILL ONE OF THE LARGESTIN EUROPE AND IS ONE OF THE DRIVERS OF GDP GROWTH IN 2012*Data of 2010, bn USD , GFK GeoMarketing**Source: ROSSTAT CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 9
  11. 11. RETAIL SALES MARKETBEAT Q3 2012Russian consumers are important players RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA FOR EUROPEAN COUNTRIES Luxembourg 11,840 Switzerland 10,161 Norway 9,628 Denmark 9,435 Austria 8,947 Moscow 7,874 France 7,829 Belgium 7,715 Great Britain 6,297 Italy 5,850 Germany 5,501 Portugal 4,852 Russia 4,457 Spain 3,215 Hungary 2,699 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000Source: ROSSTAT, RegioData Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 10
  12. 12. RETAIL SPENDING MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Russians are the most active consumers in Europe RETAIL SPENDING IN EUROPE* RUSSIA CONSUMER PATTERN 110% 100% 90% Share of retail spending in total 80% Country private spending 70% 60% Russia 77% 50% 40% Czech Republic 40% 30% Poland 38% 20% France 35% 10% 0% Germany 28% -10% United Kingdom 31% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD Goods and services Obligatory payments Savings Currency purchase Money on hand growth AVERAGE RUSSIAN CITIZEN SPENDS 78% OF HIS/HER INCOME FOR RETAIL AVERAGE SALARY IN RUSSIA – 25 704 RURSource: ROSSTAT, GFK GeoMarketing CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 11
  13. 13. CONSUMERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Russian consumer market has strong upside CONSUMER CREDIT/GDP RATIO 120.0% –Russian consumer credit market was not growing fast enough in comparison with other 100.0% countries –Average Russian citizen owes $1091 in loans 80.0% Czech Bulgaria Germany 60.0% Spain France Italy 40.0% Russia UK 20.0% 0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: EUROSTAT CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 12
  14. 14. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012RETAIL MARKET CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 13
  15. 15. RETAILERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012NEW RETAILERS 2012 COMING SOON CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 14
  16. 16. NEW RETAILERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 New reasons to visit shopping center –The most notable opening in 2012 is COMING SOON Debenhams store. – In 2012 all new international brands are coming to Russia with Russian partners –New brands are coming to Moscow initially with expansion plants for Russian regions (mostly “millionniki” cities) –New Russian brands: » Cosmopolitan Fine Jewellery, CookHouse, Kari, Sabotage – Closed NEW RETAILERS 2012 » Peacocks, Saturn (Metro Group)` CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 15
  17. 17. HYPERMARKETS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012Historic expansion of hypermarkets and impressive development plans 160 140 120 Total units trading 100 80 60 40 20 0 1992 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Auchan O’KEY Lenta REAL CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 16
  18. 18. NON-FOOD RETAILERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012Historic expansion of non-food big boxes and impressive development plans 80 70 60 Total units trading 50 40 30 20 10 0 1992 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Leroy Merlin OBI Castorama Media Markt CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 17
  19. 19. SHOPPING CENTERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Europe 2011, sq.m of quality retail per ‘000 inhabitant Norway Sweden Luxembourg Estonia RETAIL FORMATS: Ireland Slovenia Netherlands 1. SHOPPING CENTER Finland Austria Moscow Denmark 2. STREET RETAIL 3. DEPARTMENT STORE Lithuania Latvia PortugalUnited Kingdom France EU-27 Average 4. RETAIL OUTLET – to come soon Switzerland Croatia Spain Italy 5. RETAIL PARK – not in Russia yet Poland Slovakia Czech Rep. 6. RETAIL WAREHOUSE – not in Malta Germany Russia yet Hungary Romania Belgium Russia Turkey Bulgaria Moscow region Ukraine Greece Serbia Bosnia Herz. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 18
  20. 20. SHOPPING CENTERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Quarterly monitoring FOOTFALL, Q1 2010=100% VACANCY RATE, % 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 1.65% 3.05% 1.58% 0.80% 0.95% 1.00% 1.05% 0.97% 0.41% 0.65% 0.80% 0.41% 60% Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 – Share of "successful shoppers" in visitors is 43.9% (Q3 2012) and at the highest level since Q4 2009 – Footfall in shopping centers is in line with seasonable trend – Vacancy rate in established shopping malls with stabilized catchment area is extremely low* Cushman&Wakefield Research quarterly monitoring of 9 quality shopping centers (total GLA - 0.5 mn sq m). CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 19 These shopping centers have been opened more than one year ago and have the clear catchment area.
  21. 21. SHOPPING CENTERS – RUSSIA* MARKETBEAT Q3 2012QUALITY RETAIL SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE OF QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS, (IN SHOPPING CENTERS), ‘000 SQ M GLA 50,000+, 2012 1912 City Property Name Retail GLA, sq.m Delivery 1558 Volgograd KomsoMall (Slava) 68,000 Q1 Krasnodar Krasnaya Plozhad 50,000 Q1 1143 1149 1189 St. Petersburg RIO 52,500 Q2 Krasnodar Oz Mall 169,000 Q2 Ryazan Premier 50,000 Q2 866 Nizhnyi Novgorod Sedmoe Nebo 60,800 Q3 Ekaterinburg Prizma 70,400 Q4 Nizhnyi Novgorod (E RIO k ) 68,000 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (forecast) Surgut Surgut City Mall 69,600 Q4 Announced developers plans CW Forecast New construction Sochi Moremall 80,000 Q4 Ekaterinburg Raduga Park 56,000 Q4 Belgorod Megagreen 53,000 Q4 – There are 355 quality shopping malls in Russia (excluding Moscow and Moscow Surgut Aura 65,000 Q4 agglomeration) total GLA 9 ,962, 317 sq m Total GLA of shopping centers > 50,000 sq 912,300 Total GLA 1,918,464 – 17 new quality shopping malls were delivered in Q1-Q3 2012 * Without Moscow and Moscow region Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 20
  22. 22. SHOPPING CENTERS – MOSCOW AND MOSCOW REGION MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Construction of shopping centers in Moscow is down QUALITY RETIAL SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE OF QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS *, 2012 (IN SHOPPING CENTERS), ‘000 SQ M Property Name Retail GLA, sq.m Delivery Moscow 599 Hotel Moskva 21,000 Q1 515 Sombrero 6,000 Q2 443 Outlet Village Belaya 412 24,000 Q3 Dacha Sviblovo (former Friz) 15,000 Q3 266 Otrada (2 phase) 28,000 Q4 Kaleidoskop 41,000 Q4 Favorit 21,900 Q4 Moskvorechye 19,800 Q4 114 Parus 17,280 Q4 Perovo 5,000 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total GLA 198,980 (forecast) Moscow Region Domodedovo Torgovy Kvartal 22,500 Q1 Announced developers plans CW Forecast New construction Krasnogorsk Solnechniy Ray 8,000 Q3 Krasnogorsk June 17,500 Q3 Mytischi June 75,000 Q4– There are 115 quality shopping malls in Moscow, total GLA 3,449 ,610 SQM Mytischi Krasny Kit (2 phase) 35,000 Q4 Korolev SC on Kosmonavtov 22,500 Q4– 6 new quality shopping malls and the first Russia outlet were delivered in Q1-Q3 2012 Zelenograd Panfilovskiy 13,300 Q4 Lytkarino Vesna 12,500 Q4 Odintsovo Westore 7,600 Q4– Less new projects are announced and pipeline is drying out Total GLA 213,900 * Outlets are included, retail part of mix-use complexes are not included Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 21
  23. 23. SHOPPING CENTERS : RENTAL RATES MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Moscow rental rates are stableQUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS RETAIL GALLERY Q3 2012 prime retail indicator** is Gross leasable area,sq m Business type Retail Gallery Mini Anchors 3,800 USD <100 100 - 300 300 - 800 800 - 1,500 per sq.m per annum, base rateKiosks $2,000Cellphones $3,500Drugstore $1,200-$1,500Banks $1,200-$1,500Restaurant $1,200 $600-$1000Textiles $1,200 $800Books $1,000 $500-$600 $400 $300Clothing and Footwear $1,200 $800 $600 $400White and Brown $500Supermarket $750 Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 22
  24. 24. RETAIL STREETS : RENTAL RATES MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Moscow rental rates are stable STREET USD/sq. m/annum 2012 trend1st Tverskaya Yamskaya $1,500 - $2 ,500 upArbat $1,500 - $2,500 upGarden Ring $1,000 - $2,500 stableKutuzovsky Prospekt $1,000 - $2,500 stableKuznetsky Most $2,000 - $2,500 stableLeningradsky Prospekt $1,000 - $2,000 stableLeninsky prospect $1,000 - $2,000 stableProspect Mira $1,200 - $2,000 stableNovy Arbat $1,500 - $2,500 upPetrovka $3,000 - $4,000 upPyatnitskaya $1,500 - $2,000 stableTverskaya $3,500 - $4,500 upStoleshnikov per. $3,500 - $4,500 up Source: Cushman&Wakefield Research CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 23
  25. 25. LEASE TERMS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012Behind the rent ITEM COMMENT Lease Terms Standard lease terms are between 3-5 years with some up to 10 -15 for anchors. Break options are not common in the market. Rental Payment Rents are typically payable monthly in advance.Turnover / percentage rents are increasingly seen in shopping centres. Rental rates are generally calculated in USD, Euro or commercial units are used. In less quality shopping centres rental rates are calculated in RUR. Rent Deposit The rent deposit required in quality shopping centres is typically between 1 – 3 months rent equitant. Indexation Annual indexation is typical between 3-10% or at a level of USD / EU CPI. The practice of premium / key money payments is seldom seen in Russia. Rent reviews are rare on the market. Service Charges Service charge is payable by tenants at either an “open book” basis or more common as a fixed cost. Utilities payments are charged on consumption. Building insurance is normally charged back to tenant via service charge. Other costs VAT 18% Local property taxes are not paid separately, they are generally included in the service charges. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 24
  26. 26. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012OFFICE MARKET CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 25
  27. 27. MOSCOW OFFICE INDICATORS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 New construction, Take up and Vacancy rate High demand000 sq m –450,000 sq m (take up)2,200 14%2,000 12% Fair net absorption1,8001,600 10% –31.8 % from take-up1,4001,200 8% Low new construction1,000 6% 800 –176,500 sq m 600 4% 400 Decreasing Vacancy 2% 200 –11.3% 0 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 Stable Rental Rates New construction (2012: Q1-Q3) New construction Forecast (2012: Q4) Take-up (2012: Q1-Q3) Take-up Forecast (2012: Q4) –Prime $1,200 Vacancy rate –Class A $790 –Class B $450 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 26
  28. 28. SUPPLY MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Shortage in Downtown, excessive in outskirts OFFICE STOCK AND VACANCY OFFICE STOCK AND VACANCY mn sq m Class B Class A 15 25% vacant occupied 1.06 2.06 12 20% Class A vacant 9 15% 0.41 6 10% 3 5% 0 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 Class B Stock, Class B, (2012: Q1-Q3) Stock, Class A, (2012: Q1-Q3) occupied 9.46 Vacancy rate, Class A Vacancy rate, Class B• The volume of space under construction is growing. There is 3.24 mn sq m of quality office space under construction, which is 0.64 mn sq m more than at the beginning of the year.• Most new constructions of class A are concentrated in the Central business district, with most class B in the CBD and Other Trading Areas (OTA). CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 27
  29. 29. AVAILABILITY MARKETBEAT Q3 2012High vacancy but limited number of optionsVACANCY RATE AND AVAILABLE SPACE BY BUSINESS AREAS, Q3 2012 133 140 12.6% Downtown 6.0% 22.4% 239 343 Central 9.4% ` ` 10.6% 39 576 OTA 12.8% Class A Class B • The average vacancy rate is stable (and has contracted from 11.6% in Q2 down to 11.3% in Q3). • Some submarkets are experiencing extremely low availability, for example in the Belorussky and Frunzensky submarkets the vacancy rate is less than 5%, which indicates a strong deficit of quality space in these areas. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 28
  30. 30. DEMAND MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 High turnover, low net absorption TAKE-UP (’000 SQ M)000 sq m 86% 79% 84%2,600 83% 86% 90% • Office take up levels were positive over the 80% 75%2,400 80%2,2002,000 70% quarter with over 450,000 sq.m transacted.1,8001,600 60% • Occupier demand is steady as tenants look to1,400 50% consolidate or renegotiate leases.1,200 40%1,000 30% • This year the Moscow office market may 800 600 20% overcome the historic high of 2 mn sq m in 400 10% office transactions. 200 0 0% • At the same time, Net Absorption is lower 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 than in previous years and is about 31,1% of Forecast Class B (B+ and B-) Class B (B+ and B-) Forecast Class A Class A Gross Absorption (or take-up). Share of lease deals CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 29
  31. 31. NET ABSORPTION AND TAKE UP MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 In balance ABSORPTION VS. TAKE-UP ABSORPTION VS. NEW CONSTRUCTION 1.97 1.75 1.81 2.17 1.51 1.48 1.35 1.81 1.27 1.49 1.39 1.35 0.74 0.74 0.76 0.63 0.88 0.74 0.76 0.46 0.63 0.65 0.46 0.45 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q 1-3 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q 1-3 2012 Take-up Absorption New construction Absorption• Originally Take up was close to net absorption, because companies were Net absorption—represents the change in the occupied stock within a moving to newly constructed buildings from old stock market during the period. Calculation: Net Absorption =X-Y• In 2008 Net absorption was higher than Take up because of high number of Where: pre-lease contracts in 2007. As the result of massive preleases, fully let X = Current stock – current vacancy buildings were delivered to the market Y = Previous stock (same quarter, previous year) – previous• Low net absorption and high take up indicates maturity of Moscow market vacancy (same quarter, previous year) CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 30
  32. 32. MOSCOW OFFICE MARKET NET ABSORPTION MARKETBEAT Q3 2012Interactive chart Flash player is required for interactive content CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 31
  33. 33. RENTAL RATES MARKETBEAT Q3 2012Stability is the key RENTAL RATES BY CLASSES • High activity by tenants has had little impact on rents, $1,090.0 which remain flat for all classes and all submarkets. In the vast majority of office buildings in Moscow, asking $938.4 rents are stable. $790.0 • Nevertheless, there are positive dynamics in Class A $710.0 $717.4 $640.0 $760.0 $800.0 $850.0 average rental rates. In Q3 class A average rents have $810.0 $743.0 $750.0 grown from USD 750 to USD 790 due to the $627.9 $450.0 $600.0 respectively high proportion of transactions in the $521.4 $510.0 $490.0 $550.0 Central area (46% in Q3 compared with a traditional $420.0 $437.0 $450.0 30%). The higher share of more expensive deals pushed average rents up. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 • Tenants’ incentives are as low as possible, discounts Class A Class B (B+ and B-) from asking rental rates are not often granted or are Class A Q3 Class A Q3 low (about 5% on average). • We expect stable rents until the end of this year and • Prime $1,200 possibly well into 2013. • Class A $ 790 • Class B $ 450 * Rental rates – base asking rates for deals closed within the period per sq m per annum, triple net CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 32
  34. 34. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Rental rates by submarketFlash player required for interactive content CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 33
  35. 35. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012WAREHOUSE & INDUSTRIAL CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 34
  36. 36. MOSCOW SUPPLY MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 New construction of quality warehouses (A and B classes) 1,400 2012 1,200 – New construction (Q1-Q3 2012) 1,000 531,000 sq. m – Total pipeline 840,000 sq. m000 sq m 800 600 2013 400 – Total pipeline 1.700,000 sq m 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F New construction Planned CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 35
  37. 37. RENTAL RATES MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Rental rates and lease terms COLD CLASS A CLASS B CLASS C STORAGES$150 Net Rent Rates, $140 $/sq m/year 130 -140 120-130** 170** 251$140 $135 $132 Operating Expenses, $/sq m/year 30-40 20-30 - -$130 Utility Charges, $135 $/sq m/year 10-15 10 - - $127 $130$120 Yearly rent indexation CPI-3% 8-10% n/d n/d Minimum Lease Term,$110 years 5-10 1-5 - - $109 Contract security,$100 $105 months 3-6 1-3 - - Advance Payment, 1-3 1-3 1 - $90 months Contract currency USD/EUR RUB RUB RUB $80 Minimal lease area, 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F sq m 3 500 - - CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 36
  38. 38. VACANCY RATE MARKETBEAT Q3 2012Vacancy rate in Class A, Moscow region –The vacancy rate remained stable since Q3 2011; –In the short-term vacancy rate will not change.11.2% 9.1% 8.1% 3.9% 2.8% 1.5% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2010 2011 2012 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 37
  39. 39. SUPPLY MAP MARKETBEAT Q3 2012Distribution of W&I space in Moscow region EXISTING 2012-2013 PIPELINE Dmitrovskoe shosse (A104) Dmitrovskoe 1,000 shosse (A104) Leningradskoe Yaroslavskoe 600 900 Leningradskoe Yaroslavskoe shosse (M10) shosse (M8) 800 shosse (M10) 500 shosse (M8) 700 600 400 Novorizhskoe Shelkovskoe shosse (M9) 500 shosse (A103) Novorizhskoe Shelkovskoe shosse (M9) 300 shosse (A103) 400 300 200 200 100 100 Minskoe Gorkovskoe Minskoe Gorkovskoe 0 0shosse (M1) shosse (M7) shosse (M1) shosse (M7) Kievskoe Novoryazanskoe Kievskoe Novoryazanskoe shosse (MЗ) shosse (M5) shosse (MЗ) shosse (M5) Kaluzhskoe Kashirskoe Kaluzhskoe Kashirskoe shosse (A101) shosse (M4) shosse (A101) shosse (M4) Simferopolskoe Simferopolskoe shosse (M2) shosse (M2) 30+ km 10-30 km 0-10 km Moscow 30+ km 10-30 km 0-10 km Moscow CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 38
  40. 40. DEMAND STRUCTURE MARKETBEAT Q3 2012Market share and deal size STRUCTURE OF DEMAND AVERAGE DEAL SIZE 20 Producer Retailer 24% 40% 16 12 000 sq m Other 8 2% 4 Logistic 17% 14.83 10.29 8.35 10.66 18.63 0 Distributor 17% Distributor Logistic Other Producer Retailer • During Q1-Q3 2012 the demand was generated by retail and industrial companies. • The requests for the biggest rentable areas came from retail (18,000 sq m in average) and industrial(11,000 sq m)companies. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 39
  41. 41. DEMAND MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Take-up 600 • Q3 2012 was the record- 500 breaker in Moscow region since Q1 2008. 400000 SQ M 300 • In the total volume of 200 transactions completed in Q3 100 2012 the share of warehouse sales comprises 30%. 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 Moscow Regions CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 40
  42. 42. REGIONS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Regional rental rates, USD per sq.m.$140 Avg base rental Avg leased area, CITY rates, sq m$120 USD / annum Moscow 135-140 10,000-15,000$100 St. Petersburg 120-130 2,000-10,000 Ekaterinburg 110-115 5,000-10,000$80 Nizhnyi Novgorod 110-120 3,000-5,000 Samara 110-115 3,000-5,000$60 Kazan 90-100 3,000-5,000 Rostov-On-Don 115-120 3,000-5,000$40 Krasnodar 110-120 3,000-5,000 Novosibirsk 110-115 2,000-5,000$20 Ufa 90-100 3,000-5,000 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F St. Petersburg Ekaterinburg Rostov-On-Don CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 41
  43. 43. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012LAND MARKET CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 42
  44. 44. MOSCOW REGION MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Stable, growing market MOSCOW REGION AVERAGE INDUSTRIAL PRICE FOR INDUSTRIAL LAND IN LAND PRICE, mn USD/ha MOSCOW REGION by direction PRICE, mn 1.94 ROAD USD / ha 1.87 1.4 Dmitrovskoe shosse A104 0.5-1.5 1.4 Yaroslavskoe shosse M8 0.5 - 1.5 1.07 1.38 Gorkovskoe shosse M7 0.5 - 1.2 Novoryazanskoe shosse M5 0.5-1.2 Kashirskoe shosse M4 0.6 - 1.5 Simferopolskoe shosse M2 0.8 - 1 Kaluzhskoeshosse shosse A101 1-1.5 Kievskoe shosse M3 1-22007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Minskoe shosse M1 1-1.5 Novorizhskoe shosse M9 2-4 Leningradskoe shosse M10 1.5-2.5 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 43
  45. 45. MOSCOW REGION MARKETBEAT Q3 2012Land prices DISTANCE PRICE, mn FROM MKAD USD / ha MKAD 2.5 - 3 5 km 1 – 1.5 15 km 0.6 - 0.8 30 km 0.4 - 0.6 50 km 0.3 - 0.5 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 44
  46. 46. MARKETBEAT Q3 2012CAPITAL MARKETS CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 45
  47. 47. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Global Markets EUROPEAN MARKET WORLDWIDE MARKET NYC Metro 35,795 London Metro 32,500 London Metro 32,500 Paris 18,694 Tokyo 24,610 Moscow 8,625 Hong Kong 20,188 Paris 18,694 Stockholm 6,796 LA Metro 18,298 Berlin-Brandenburg 5,650 Shanghai 17,607 Rhine-Ruhr 4,691 SF Metro 17,513 Frankfurt/Rhine-Main 3,945 DC Metro 17,409 Singapore 16,907 Munich 3,785 Beijing 13,454 Amsterdam/Randstad 3,733 Chongqing 10,781 South Germany 2,925 Chicago 10,196 Moscow 8,625 Oslo 2,871 Seoul 8,595 Saint Petersburg 2,686 Boston 8,020 Hamburg 2,495 Shenyang 7,931 Warsaw 2,449 Tianjin 7,667 Dallas 7,626 Copenhagen 2,077 Wuhan 7,620 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 $ mnMoscow is the 3rd investment market in Europe and 14th market worldwide (2 places up compared to 2011 eoy).Now there are 2 Russian cities in Top 15 of European investment markets. St. Petersburg became reliable investment location.Data of Real Capital Analytics based on 12 past month basis CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 46
  48. 48. RUSSIAN INVESTMENT MARKET MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 Russian Investments split By sector 8,000 By origin 7,547.4 7,200 7,000 Foreign investors 35% Domestic investors 5,797.9 39% 6,000 5,524.4 5,354 61% 2012 forecast 65% 5,000 4,559.8mn USD 3,994 4,000 3,000 By geography 2,256 2% 2,000 1,637.3 18% 1% Moscow 21% St. Petersburg 1,000 491.5 Regions 78% 0 2012 forecast 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 80% Office Retail Industrial Other Forecast • We increased our forecast for 2012 investments to US$ 7.2 bn CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 47
  49. 49. INVESTMENT MARKET IN NUMBERS MARKETBEAT Q3 2012 2012 investments breakdown in $mn $5,524 bn OF TOTAL YEAR-TO-DATE INVESTMENTSMOSCOW $4,308.8 Offices $1,672.30 23% Offices 39% Shopping Centers Shopping Centers $1,109ST. PETERSBURG $1,140.7 W&I $513.60 12% W&I Hospitality and Hospitality and other $1,014 otherREGIONS $74.9 26% 5% Offices - Offices Shopping Centers Moscow is the core market for Office Shopping Centers $1,084.70 and W&I segments W&I - W&I Hospitality and Hospitality and other $56 95% other CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 48

×