Foresights & Innovation: Sharing Singapore's Experience

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A presentation I gave at an European Innovation Conference (March 2009, Helsinki)

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Foresights & Innovation: Sharing Singapore's Experience

  1. 1. Foresights and Innovation Sharing Singapore’s Experience 31 March 2009, Helsinki Ms. SIM Phei Sunn Strategist, Futures Group ? !
  2. 2. CONTENT singapore context futures group & network process outputs & contributions lines of inquiry video ? ! 2
  3. 3. Singapore ? ! 3
  4. 4. singapore context • Singapore’s economy grew by 1.1% in 2008 • GDP is SGD 257bn (USD 170bn) • Very open economy, total trade is 3.5x GDP Annual Economic Survey of Singapore, 2008, MTI ? ! 4
  5. 5. innovation Annual Economic Survey of Singapore, 2008, MTI ? ! 5
  6. 6. http://www.international.ac.uk/resources/Insead200809.pdf ? ! 6
  7. 7. http://www.itif.org/files/2009-atlantic-century.pdf ? ! 7
  8. 8. http://www.bcg.com/impact_expertise/publications/files/ Innovation_Imperative_in_Manufacturing_March_2009.pdf
  9. 9. CONTENT singapore context futures group & network process outputs & contributions lines of inquiry video ? ! 9
  10. 10. ? Futures Group founded in May 2006 “It is proposed that a unit be set up to strategise on MTI-family wide direction and look at future big ideas... … The unit would focus on big ideas ! with concrete feasibility and economic impact…” - MTI Leadership Nov 2005 ? ! 10
  11. 11. ? We are the trendwatchers, network builders, and idea generators ! for the Singapore economy of the future ? ! 11
  12. 12. singapore public service PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE PUBLIC SERVICE DIVISION SECURITY ECONOMIC SOCIAL Ministry of Defence Ministry of Trade & Industry Ministry of Education Ministry of Communications, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ministry of Finance Youth and Sports Ministry of Home Affairs Ministry of Transport Ministry of Health Ministry of the Environment Ministry of Information, and Water Resources Communications and the Arts Ministry of National Ministry of Law Development Ministry of Manpower ? ! 12
  13. 13. singapore government futures network ased Broad b National Security Coordination Secretariat Strategic Policy Office (Horizon scanning & foresights capabilities) (National scenarios & methodologies) - Ministry of Trade and Industry Futures Group Economic Development Board (Trends and economic implications) (New economic clusters/ industries) Niche topics Infocomm Development Authority Energy Market Authority (ICT trends and implications) (Energy trends & scenarios) Ministry of Manpower Singapore Tourism Board (Workforce and labour trends) (Tourism trends & scenarios) Ministry of Defence ……… (Security and military issues) ? Pioneers ! 13
  14. 14. CONTENT singapore context futures group & network process outputs & contributions lines of inquiry video ? ! 14
  15. 15. FG Process Ground 1 2 Desk Sensing, Research Validation Analysis, 3 Ideation, Knowledge Sharing ? ! 15
  16. 16. FG Process Literature, • Publications Ground 1 2 Desk Sensing, Web Scans Research • Validation Blogs, Videos, RSS • Feeds Analysis, 3 Ideation, Knowledge Sharing ? ! 16
  17. 17. FG Process Interviews, • Networks with Ground 1 2 Desk private sector & Sensing, Research external agencies Validation Foresight Sessions • with experts Conferences, • Seminars, Study Trips Analysis, 3 Ideation, Knowledge Sharing ? ! 17
  18. 18. FG Process Genesis & Genesis • Plus Brainstorming Ground 1 2 Desk Sensing, Presentations to Research • Validation senior management & decision-makers Ideas, Projects & • Experiments Analysis, Other Meetings & 3 • Ideation, Workshops Knowledge Sharing ? ! 18
  19. 19. CONTENT singapore context futures group & network process outputs & contributions lines of inquiry video ? ! 19
  20. 20. Outputs & Contributions Research Project Teams/ Inputs ? ! Talent Future of Lines of Inquiry Strategies Global Demand Country Highlights Methodology Communications S. Korea Finland Emerging Rise of the Strategic Issues Rest Video FG Blog ? ! 20
  21. 21. CONTENT singapore context futures group & network process outputs & contributions lines of inquiry video ? ! 21
  22. 22. RESOURCE GLOBAL CONSTRAINTS CITY Food Green Cities II Cities I UNDERGROUND; FLOATING Data Visualization Enterprises Trash Alternative Portable Smart City Spaces Power LINES OF INQUIRY Trends (5-10 years) Economic Implications? Jobs? Growth? So what? Silver TOOLS & $2,000 ECONOMY TECHNOLOGIES No-frills Space ! Disaster 3D Mfg Participation Deviant Little Gold Red PEOPLE COMMUNITIES Cognitive ? Science Talent iBody Youth ! 22
  23. 23. RESOURCE GLOBAL CONSTRAINTS CITY Food Green Cities II Cities I UNDERGROUND; FLOATING Data Visualization Enterprises Trash Alternative Portable Smart City Spaces Power LINES OF INQUIRY Trends (5-10 years) Economic Implications? Jobs? Growth? So what? Silver TOOLS & $2,000 ECONOMY TECHNOLOGIES No-frills Space ! Disaster 3D Mfg Participation Deviant Little Gold Red PEOPLE COMMUNITIES Cognitive ? Science Talent iBody Youth ! 23
  24. 24. The Future of Food ? ! 24
  25. 25. Food headlines in The Economist so far Aug 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Jun 08 Today ? ! 25
  26. 26. ? ! 26
  27. 27. Vertical farming is a popular idea for cities Proposed by Columbia Uni. No prototypes yet. • Estimate for 150 30-storey vertical farms to feed NYC (pop: 8 mil)/year. • China, Abu Dhabi and Korea exploring vertical farming. • Pasona O2, Tokyo ? ! 27
  28. 28. IDEAS ? ! 28
  29. 29. New Agriculture? ? ! 29
  30. 30. Future City A flourishing global Singapore 30
  31. 31. Power of Place “The ability to attract people and talent is the single biggest predictor of a city’s economic success.” - NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg Mercer Human Resource Consulting Worldwide Quality of Living Survey 2007 Top 50 31
  32. 32. What Makes a Place THE PLACE HARDWARE SOFTWARE 32
  33. 33. “ New York City has good people, and you would need to Hardware build up the infrastructure to hold them. Not the reverse.” – Koh Lin-Net Great Public Commons Compact Grid HARDWARE Neighborhoods with Soul 3rd Places Transport Options 33
  34. 34. “SGP can put the infrastructure down, throw money at it, buy successful people in Software creativity and innovation, top up the citizens education bank accounts, invest in broadband infrastructure, get the best Uni lecturers … the problem is we still need that extra X factor to bring us to the next level.” – Ignatius Low, ST Money Editor Well-Being SOFTWARE Hope Openness Content and Culture 34
  35. 35. STRATEGIES 1. Broaden Catchment (1st & 3rd Touchpoints) 2. Improve Climate (Openness) 3. Improve Message (PR) 35
  36. 36. iPOWER the Future of Portable Power ? !
  37. 37. Key Secondary Battery Technologies Strengths of Li Ion Highest Energy Density (High power, low weight) Low self-discharge rate Little memory effect (Hence should never Be fully discharged nor Overcharged) Relative low toxicity Source : www.batteryuniversity.com ? II - Developments of Secondary Batteries !
  38. 38. Drivers for Intensified Green Car Movement Way Forward Internal Plug-in Electric Hybrid Combustion Hybrid Vehicles Cars Engines (ICE) (PHEV) (EV) Fuel the car’s movement Battery to Power auxiliaries Current Battery (KWH) Increased EV 50.0 Environmental PHEV60 26.4 PHEV40 20.8 Awareness PHEV20 12.7 HEV 1.5 Runaway Source : www.nrel.gov&Tesla Oil Price ? III - Growth of Green Cars !
  39. 39. Most Car Manufacturers Getting into the Game ? III - Growth of Green Cars !
  40. 40. Besides Batteries, can we also play in the game for Green Cars? ? V - Ideas and Implications !
  41. 41. We can also catch the wave via EVs (EVs & PHEVs) Capitalise on our geographical location within the Asia and Our unique traits to be the leader for Green Car Movement • One of the highest cars per capital ratio in this region • High turnover rate for cars – via COEs • Highest cost of cars in the world • Strong Government commitment to green • Green conscious population • Strong R&D sector • Small country • Good base of electronics industry Primary Research? Trading? Testbedding? HQ Services? Innovation? Manufacturing? Logistics? ? V - Ideas and Implications !
  42. 42. iBody ? !
  43. 43. “…genetic, robotic, information and nano processes…are collectively creating a curve of change unlike anything we humans have ever seen.” 43 Joel Garreau, Radical Evolution
  44. 44. Cognitive Drugs 44
  45. 45. Bio-regeneration 45
  46. 46. “Enhancing  Physical Functionality” B i o – m e c h a n i c s 46
  47. 47. B i o ‐ m a t e r i a l s 47
  48. 48. Bio- Power 48
  49. 49. CONTENT singapore context futures group & network process outputs & contributions lines of inquiry video 49
  50. 50. Rise of the Rest Video The Rise of the Rest is a term coined by Fareed Zakaria on the post-American world. It is a world not marked by American decline, but the rise of everybody else. ? ! 50
  51. 51. Thank you Contact: sim_phei_sunn@mti.gov.sg www.futuresgroup.wordpress.com Rise of the Rest video: http://futuresgroup.wordpress.com/downloads/ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mxJZ6Jhnrk Topics presented are on-going research and do not represent official policy statements or directions. ? !

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