Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project USAID Briefing July 23 2013

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America’s competition with China is heating up in developing countries. Using a new survey on the global balance of power, Bruce Stokes, Director of Global Economic Attitudes at the Pew Research Center, and Richard Wike, Associate Director of the Pew Research Global Attitudes Project, presented detailed findings on the image of the U.S. and China in Africa, Asia and Latin America to staff at the U.S. Agency for International Development.

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Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project USAID Briefing July 23 2013

  1. 1. Richard Wike Bruce Stokes Pew Research Center July 2013 How Developing Nations See the Economy, China, the U.S.
  2. 2. Spring 2013 Pew Global Attitudes Survey The Economic Context 2
  3. 3. Crisis Soured Economic Views Median based only on those countries surveyed in both 2007 and 2013. 44 48 49 24 46 25 Advanced Emerging Developing 2007 2013 % Say economy is good 3
  4. 4. State of the Economy in Latin America % Who think that… Economy is good Economy will improve in next 12 months Kids will be better off than parents % % % Argentina 39 29 44 Bolivia 54 37 51 Brazil 59 79 79 Chile 58 42 76 El Salvador 33 44 40 Mexico 38 56 44 Venezuela 44 64 66 MEDIAN 44 44 51 4
  5. 5. State of the Economy in the Middle East % Who think that… Economy is good Economy will improve in next 12 months Kids will be better off than parents % % % Turkey 53 39 39 Egypt 23 29 22 Jordan 27 28 31 Lebanon 10 19 26 Palest. ter. 22 27 23 Tunisia 11 50 49 Israel 43 27 41 MEDIAN 23 28 31 5
  6. 6. State of the Economy in Africa % Who think that… Economy is good Economy will improve in next 12 months Kids will be better off than parents % % % Ghana 37 60 65 Kenya 52 59 55 Nigeria 32 66 65 Senegal 48 69 51 S. Africa 53 48 39 Uganda 44 42 39 MEDIAN 46 60 53 6
  7. 7. State of the Economy in Asia % Who think that… Economy is good Economy will improve in next 12 months Kids will be better off than parents % % % China 88 80 82 Indonesia 37 37 58 Malaysia 85 64 72 Pakistan 17 26 40 Philippines 68 55 63 MEDIAN 68 55 63 7
  8. 8. Chile Deprivation Falling Could not afford food Could not afford health care Could not afford clothes 2007 2013 Change 2007 2013 Change 2007 2013 Change % % % % % % Mexico 42 53 +11 47 51 +4 45 54 +9 Chile 31 26 -5 42 30 -12 38 30 -8 Argentina 25 22 -3 29 23 -6 33 25 -8 El Salvador -- 61 -- -- 60 -- -- 56 -- Bolivia -- 61 -- -- 58 -- -- 56 -- Venezuela -- 45 -- -- 44 -- -- 45 -- Brazil -- 24 -- -- 31 -- -- 30 -- 8
  9. 9. Pakistan Deprivation Up Could not afford food Could not afford health care Could not afford clothes 2007 2013 Change 2007 2013 Change 2007 2013 Change % % % % % % Pakistan 34 48 +14 37 53 +16 33 47 +14 Malaysia 9 15 +6 9 17 +8 8 16 +8 China 9 8 -1 33 30 -3 17 14 -3 Indonesia 35 25 -10 48 37 -11 40 31 -9 Philippines -- 48 -- -- 49 -- -- 42 -- 9
  10. 10. Ghana Deprivation Worsening Could not afford food Could not afford health care Could not afford clothes 2007 2013 Change 2007 2013 Change 2007 2013 Change % % % % % % Ghana 43 56 +13 54 59 +5 45 57 +12 Uganda 66 70 +4 76 77 +1 71 70 -1 Kenya 57 55 -2 62 57 -5 58 56 -2 Nigeria -- 67 -- -- 62 -- -- 66 -- S. Africa -- 54 -- -- 51 -- -- 54 -- Senegal -- 50 -- -- 59 -- -- 55 -- 10
  11. 11. Egypt, Jordan Deprivation Rising Could not afford food Could not afford health care Could not afford clothes 2007 2013 Change 2007 2013 Change 2007 2013 Change % % % % % % Egypt 8 36 +28 44 48 +4 31 57 +26 Jordan 5 22 +17 16 36 +20 17 31 +14 Turkey 48 39 -9 47 36 -11 50 41 -9 Lebanon 12 1 -11 22 13 -9 20 15 -5 Palest. ter. 43 27 -16 47 37 -10 50 37 -13 Tunisia -- 31 -- -- 39 -- -- 36 -- 11
  12. 12. Many Low Income Go Hungry % Could not afford food Low income Middle income High income High-low gap % % % Jordan 52 9 5 -47 Tunisia 45 26 11 -34 Turkey 51 41 22 -29 Palest. ter. 38 13 13 -25 Israel 17 6 0 -17 Egypt 40 37 30 -10 12
  13. 13. Worry Over Jobs and Inflation % Saying __ should be top government priority Rising prices Lack of job opportunities Gap between rich & poor Public debt % % % % Ghana 23 58 6 4 Kenya 30 48 10 2 Nigeria 17 60 4 1 Senegal 38 43 4 3 S. Africa 30 46 4 2 Uganda 33 45 9 8 MEDIAN 30 47 5 3 13
  14. 14. Jobs a Priority in Latin America % Saying __ should be top government priority Rising prices Lack of job opportunities Gap between rich & poor Public debt % % % % Argentina 33 37 12 2 Bolivia 25 50 10 4 Brazil 24 46 17 9 Chile 36 33 21 3 El Salvador 11 68 5 6 Mexico 29 51 5 4 Venezuela 37 29 3 5 MEDIAN 27 48 11 4 14
  15. 15. Worry Over Jobs and Inflation % Saying __ should be top government priority Rising prices Lack of job opportunities Gap between rich & poor Public debt % % % % Turkey 21 43 11 8 Egypt 36 31 11 10 Jordan 44 20 9 11 Lebanon 24 21 10 13 Palest. ter. 18 40 3 9 Tunisia 48 27 4 5 MEDIAN 30 29 10 10 15
  16. 16. Worry Over Inflation % Saying __ should be top government priority Rising prices Lack of job opportunities Gap between rich & poor Public debt % % % % China 53 11 26 1 Indonesia 42 27 4 5 Malaysia 38 14 6 13 Pakistan 68 17 4 5 Philippines 41 46 3 10 MEDIAN 42 17 4 5 16
  17. 17. Inequality in the Middle East 70 68 63 % Saying … Rich-poor gap is a very big problem Rich-poor gap has increased Economic system favors wealthy % % % Turkey 68 70 66 Egypt 49 53 63 Jordan 44 54 66 Lebanon 86 87 72 Palest. ter. 60 73 70 Tunisia 82 71 70 Israel 51 81 76 MEDIAN 60 71 70 17
  18. 18. Inequality in Africa 70 68 63 % Saying … Rich-poor gap is a very big problem Rich-poor gap has increased Economic system favors wealthy % % % Ghana 81 69 94 Kenya 73 80 82 Nigeria 78 80 81 Senegal 78 69 75 S. Africa 70 66 64 Uganda 74 75 67 MEDIAN 76 72 78 18
  19. 19. Inequality in Latin America % Saying … Rich-poor gap is a very big problem Rich-poor gap has increased Economic system favors wealthy % % % Argentina 70 57 66 Bolivia 58 32 44 Brazil 75 50 80 Chile 79 51 86 El Salvador 68 38 70 Mexico 67 59 74 Venezuela 61 40 32 MEDIAN 68 50 70 19
  20. 20. Spring 2013 Pew Global Attitudes Survey Views of the U.S. and China 20
  21. 21. America Rated More Favorably % Favorable U.S. China % % Europe 58 43 Middle East 21 45 Asia/Pacific 64 58 Latin America 66 58 Africa 77 72 GLOBAL MEDIAN 63 50 Regional medians. Asia/Pacific median excludes China. Global median excludes U.S./China. 21
  22. 22. U.S. Favorability 16 53 41 70 79 81 85 13 20 29 30 31 33 53 72 83 47 42 21 16 16 14 85 78 69 66 61 55 40 11 Israel Lebanon Tunisia Turkey Palest. ter. Egypt Jordan Philippines S. Korea Japan Australia Indonesia Malaysia China Pakistan FavorableUnfavorable Asia/Pacific Middle East 22
  23. 23. U.S. Favorability 17 23 24 30 29 37 41 9 5 14 9 20 20 79 73 68 66 55 53 41 83 81 81 73 72 69 El Salvador Brazil Chile Mexico Bolivia Venezuela Argentina Ghana Senegal Kenya Uganda S. Africa Nigeria FavorableUnfavorable Africa Latin America 23
  24. 24. Young More Positive about U.S. % Favorable 18-29 30-49 50+ Oldest-youngest gap % % % Turkey 38 16 8 -30 China 50 41 27 -23 Malaysia 64 55 43 -21 Poland 81 65 61 -20 Czech Rep. 70 59 53 -17 Russia 61 53 44 -17 Lebanon 57 43 40 -17 Argentina 49 42 32 -17 Bolivia 63 53 47 -16 Venezuela 61 51 46 -15 Italy 84 79 70 -14 Brazil 79 72 66 -13 Germany 64 50 51 -13 Senegal 85 81 73 -12 Britain 69 56 57 -12 Mexico 73 64 63 -10 24
  25. 25. U.S. Seen as Partner % Saying __ is a partner U.S. China % % Europe 57 25 Middle East 19 28 Asia/Pacific 69 36 Latin America 59 52 Africa 73 71 GLOBAL MEDIAN 59 39 Regional medians. Asia/Pacific median excludes China. Global median excludes U.S./China. 26
  26. 26. U.S., China Seen as Unilateralist % Saying __ considers survey country’s interests a great deal/fair amount U.S. China % % Europe 34 17 Middle East 19 25 Asia/Pacific 38 52 Latin America 51 40 Africa 66 65 GLOBAL MEDIAN 37 27 Regional medians. Asia/Pacific median excludes China on question about China. Global median excludes U.S./China. 27
  27. 27. U.S. Gets High Marks for Rights % Saying __ government respects personal freedoms of its people U.S. China % % Europe 76 14 Middle East 64 48 Asia/Pacific 74 51 Latin America 55 34 Africa 70 50 GLOBAL MEDIAN 70 36 Regional medians. Chinese respondents not asked about personal freedoms in China. 28
  28. 28. Link Between U.S. Favorability and Personal Freedoms CORRELATION: 0.68 Pakistan Lebanon Palest. ter. China PhilippinesGhana Russia Egypt Mexico El Salvador S. Korea Japan Argentina Greece Israel Germany Italy 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %FavorableofU.S. % U.S. respects the personal freedoms of its people 29
  29. 29. Link Between China Favorability and Personal Freedoms CORRELATION: 0.73 Lebanon Pakistan Venezuela Philippines Kenya Russia Brazil Greece Turkey Australia BritainSpain GermanyItaly Japan 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %FavorableofChina % China respects the personal freedoms of its people 30
  30. 30. American vs. Chinese Soft Power Median % positive view of… Latin America Africa American Chinese American Chinese % % % % Scientific & tech. advances 74 72 83 75 Music, movies and television 63 25 58 34 Ways of doing business 50 40 73 59 Ideas about democracy 43 -- 73 -- Ideas and customs spreading 32 30 56 46 31
  31. 31. American Soft Power in Lat. Am. % Positive U.S. science & tech. advances U.S. music, movies, TV U.S. ways of doing business U.S. ideas about democracy U.S. ideas & customs spreading MEDIAN % % % % % El Salvador 84 53 66 70 58 66 Brazil 81 71 58 61 53 61 Chile 75 73 52 43 31 52 Mexico 65 60 50 47 41 50 Bolivia 74 55 44 38 31 44 Venezuela 69 63 42 41 32 42 Argentina 61 66 35 38 31 38 MEDIAN 74 63 50 43 32 32
  32. 32. American Soft Power in Africa % Positive U.S. science & tech. advances U.S. music, movies, TV U.S. ways of doing business U.S. ideas about democracy U.S. ideas & customs spreading MEDIAN % % % % % % Kenya 85 56 81 82 60 81 Senegal 84 60 75 77 70 75 Ghana 82 55 75 73 37 73 Nigeria 85 60 70 72 54 70 S. Africa 75 71 69 63 57 69 Uganda 78 47 65 73 44 65 MEDIAN 83 58 73 73 56 33
  33. 33. U.S. Aid Seen Positively in Africa, Not Egypt, Pakistan Impact of U.S. economic aid Mostly positive Mostly negative No impact DK % % % % Kenya 78 12 7 3 Ghana 64 17 10 9 Uganda 63 14 11 13 S. Africa 59 18 14 9 Nigeria 52 16 16 16 Senegal 51 6 23 21 Egypt 24 55 18 3 Pakistan 8 43 13 36 34
  34. 34. Americans Want to Cut Aid Would you __ spending for aid to the world’s needy Increase Keep same Decrease % % % Total 21 28 48 Male 18 26 54 Female 23 30 42 18-49 26 28 44 50+ 13 30 52 Republican 7 21 70 Independent 19 27 52 Democrat 33 37 25 February 2013 Pew Research Center survey. 35
  35. 35. Who Is World’s Leading Economic Power? Medians based on only the 20 countries surveyed in both 2008 and 2013. 20 34 47 41 2008 2013 China U.S. 36
  36. 36. Will China Replace U.S. as World’s Leading Superpower? Will eventually replace U.S. Has already replaced U.S. Total has or will replace U.S. Will never replace U.S. % % % % Canada 52 15 67 26 U.S. 36 11 47 47 Europe 40 16 57 31 Latin America 32 14 50 31 Asia/Pacific 36 9 45 39 Middle East 28 17 44 42 Africa 25 13 39 36 Regional medians. Total column shows medians, not the summation of median responses. 37
  37. 37. All Pew Global Attitudes Project reports and data are available online at www.pewglobal.org

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