The Future of Public Relations

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  • 10:15   How Media Consumption Has Changed Since 2000 Consumption of news, information and entertainment has radically changed, and not just online. Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Internet & American Life Project, presents the latest data and trends.
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  • As noted in the roadmap report, the emergence of a robust Metaverse will shape the development of all realms. In manufacturing, 3D environments offer ideal design spaces for rapid-prototyping and customized and decentralized production. In logistics and transportation, spatially-aware tags and real-time world modeling are inspiring new efficiencies, insights, and markets. In artificial intelligence, virtual worlds offer low-risk, transparent platforms for the development and testing of autonomous machine behaviors, many of which may be also used in the physical world. This is just a sampling of coming developments based on early stage Metaverse technologies. In developing the Metaverse Roadmap, Smart’s group selected two continua likely to be reflective of the way it all unfolds – the spectrum of technologies and apps ranging from augmentation to simulation and the human-based spectrum ranging from intimate (identity-focused) to external (world-focused). They identified as the key components of the Metaverse future the technology sets grouped as “augmented reality,” “lifelogging,” “mirror worlds” and “virtual worlds.” Today we see the most rapid metaverse development in the use of Google Earth and similar world-mirroring tools and the mainstreaming of augmented reality due to the appearance of more GPS-based applications for smartphones. Lifelogging and virtual worlds are abundant in early form in online social networks and cyberspace places like Second Life and World of Warcraft. The research I do with Lee often involves asking people how the technologies being developed along the augmentation-to-simulation continuum are influencing them along the intimate-to-external continuum
  • Security: No one expected that the level of malevolence online to be what it is, so the “start over” crowd would love to build a new system that would do a better job of authenticating people and their computers in a way that would keep hazards like viruses far away so that you wouldn’t have to buy special software for protection.   Mobility: The internet was invented with fixed and stationary computers in mind and the fact that wireless connectivity has exploded the way it has … has caught many by surprise. The “start over” folks want to create a new system to assign internet addresses to small and mobile devices such as sensors, phones, and embedded processors in cars would allow them to connect to the internet securely.   Instrumentation: When we asked experts three years ago what had surprised them most their first answer was the growth of the Web itself. Their second answer was the way file-sharing through peer-to-peer networks had emerged. Basically no one foresaw the level of traffic the internet would bear and there are all sorts of hassles in the way data moves on the internet these days. So, the “start over” folks would like to build something allowing all pieces of the network to have the ability to detect and report emerging problems such as technical breakdowns, traffic jams, or replicating worms to network administrators.   Protocols: These traffic flow concerns also prompt “start over” architects to want to structure better traffic routing agreements between internet service providers that would allow them to collaborate on advance services without compromising their businesses.   See http://www.technologyreview.com/InfoTech-Networks/wtr_16051,258,p1.html
  • The Future of Public Relations

    1. 1. The Future of Public Relations Lee Rainie Director – Pew Internet Project Newhouse School – Syracuse University 8.22.10
    2. 2. June 25, 2010 2000 46% of adults use internet <5% with broadband at home <22% watch video online 53% own a cell phone 0% connect wirelessly <10% use “cloud” 0% = tech social networkers THEN: slow, stationary connections built around my computer The internet is the change agent Then and now 2010 79% of adults use internet 66% have broadband at home >55% watch video online 82% own a cell phone 59% connect wirelessly >two-thirds use “cloud” 48% = tech social networkers NOW: faster, mobile connections built around outside servers and storage
    3. 3. Media ecology – then (industrial age) <ul><li>Product Route to home Display Local storage </li></ul><ul><li>TV stations phone TV Cassette/ 8-track </li></ul><ul><li> broadcast TV radio </li></ul><ul><li> broadcast radio stereo Vinyl album </li></ul><ul><li>News mail </li></ul><ul><li>Advertising newspaper delivery phone </li></ul><ul><li> paper </li></ul><ul><li>Radio Stations non-electronic </li></ul>August 22, 2010 Tom Wolzien, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co
    4. 4. Media ecology – now (information age) <ul><li>Product Route to home Display Local storage </li></ul><ul><li> cable TiVo (PVR) VCR </li></ul><ul><li>TV stations DSL TV Satellite radio player </li></ul><ul><li>Info wireless/phone radio DVD </li></ul><ul><li>“ Daily me” broadcast TV PC Web-based storage </li></ul><ul><li>content books iPod /MP3 server/ TiVo (PVR) </li></ul><ul><li>Cable Nets broadcast radio stereo PC </li></ul><ul><li>Web sites satellite monitor web storage/servers </li></ul><ul><li>Local news mail headphones CD/CD-ROM </li></ul><ul><li>Content from express delivery pager satellite player cell phone memory </li></ul><ul><li>individuals iPod / storage portable gamer MP3 player / iPod </li></ul><ul><li>Peer-to-peer subcarriers / WIFI cell phone pagers - PDAs </li></ul><ul><li>Advertising newspaper delivery non-electronic iPad </li></ul><ul><li>Radio stations camcorder/camera PDA/Palm game console </li></ul><ul><li>App game console paper </li></ul><ul><li>Satellite radio e-reader / Kindle storage sticks/disks iPad - tablet e-reader/Kindle </li></ul>August 22, 2010 Adapted from Tom Wolzien, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co
    5. 5. Media ecology – now (information age) <ul><li>Product Route to home Display Local storage </li></ul><ul><li> cable TiVo (PVR) VCR </li></ul><ul><li>TV stations DSL TV Satellite radio player </li></ul><ul><li>Info wireless/phone radio DVD </li></ul><ul><li>“ Daily me” broadcast TV PC Web-based storage </li></ul><ul><li>content books iPod /MP3 server/ TiVo (PVR) </li></ul><ul><li>Cable Nets broadcast radio stereo PC </li></ul><ul><li>Web sites satellite monitor web storage/servers </li></ul><ul><li>Local news mail headphones CD/CD-ROM </li></ul><ul><li>Content from express delivery pager satellite player cell phone memory </li></ul><ul><li>individuals iPod / storage portable gamer MP3 player / iPod </li></ul><ul><li>Peer-to-peer subcarriers / WIFI cell phone pagers - PDAs </li></ul><ul><li>Advertising newspaper delivery non-electronic iPad </li></ul><ul><li>Radio stations camcorder/camera PDA/Palm game console </li></ul><ul><li>App game console paper </li></ul><ul><li>Satellite radio e-reader / Kindle storage sticks/disks iPad - tablet e-reader/Kindle </li></ul>August 3, 2010 Adapted from Tom Wolzien, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co 45% of adults own DVRs – up from 3% in 2002 55% of adults own laptops – up from 30% in 2006 42% of adults own game consoles 3% of adults own tablet computer - iPad 4% of adults own e-book readers - Kindle 46% of adults own MP3 players – up from 11% in 2005
    6. 6. August 22, 2010 8 ways the media ecosystem has changed in the digital age and changed the character of the marketplace of ideas
    7. 7. Information and media ecosystem changes <ul><li>Volume of information grows </li></ul><ul><li>Variety of information sources increases </li></ul><ul><li>Velocity of information speeds up </li></ul><ul><li>Venues change -- times and places to experience media enlarge </li></ul>A ugust 22, 2010
    8. 8. Information and media ecosystem changes <ul><li>Vigilance – attention to information and media expands AND dissipates </li></ul><ul><li>Vibrant -- immersive qualities of media are more compelling – gaming; augmented reality </li></ul><ul><li>Valence -- relevance of information improves as customization/search tools advance </li></ul><ul><li>Vivid -- social networks are more evident and more important as “coping” structures </li></ul>August 22, 2010
    9. 9. <ul><li>Pervasive/ persistent </li></ul><ul><li>Portable </li></ul><ul><li>Personalized </li></ul><ul><li>Participatory </li></ul><ul><li>Social experience (even if media originates from organizations) </li></ul>Changed sense of availability of media/info August 22, 2010
    10. 10. <ul><li>Time and distance matter less </li></ul><ul><li>Presence becomes disembodied </li></ul><ul><li>Surveillance and sousveillance expand </li></ul><ul><li>New social negotiations about availability and interruptions </li></ul><ul><li>TRUST and FRIENDSHIP and EXPERTISE are reconfigured </li></ul>Changed sense of social roles of people August 22, 2010
    11. 11. Behold the idea of networked individualism Barry Wellman – University of Toronto <ul><li>The turn by people from groups to social networks = a new social operating system = a new way to serve them </li></ul>April 9, 2010
    12. 12. Technology has helped people change their networks – composition and use <ul><li>Bigger </li></ul><ul><li>Looser </li></ul><ul><li>More segmented </li></ul><ul><li>More layered </li></ul><ul><li>= </li></ul><ul><li>More liberated </li></ul><ul><li>More work </li></ul><ul><li>More important as sources of support and information, filters, curators, audience </li></ul>August 22, 2010
    13. 13. Punchline #1 <ul><li>You and your organizations can act like nodes in people’s networks </li></ul>A ugust 22, 2010
    14. 14. Punchline #2 <ul><li>You can take more advantage of people being nodes in your network </li></ul>August 22, 2010
    15. 15. Punchline #3 <ul><li>This changes the old “industrial media” reality that information and influence follow a 2-step process </li></ul>August 22, 2010
    16. 16. A general new pattern of communication and influence for organizations – follow the 5 As <ul><li>ID acolytes (influentials) </li></ul><ul><li>Invite attention (alerts, updates) </li></ul><ul><li>Offer pathways to info acquisition (link love and conversations) </li></ul><ul><li>Help with assessment (build your brand) </li></ul><ul><li>Enable action (tools for participation and feedback) </li></ul>August 22, 2010
    17. 17. August 22, 2010
    18. 18. Futurism 101 – the technology side <ul><li>Computing capacity: The price/performance ratio of computing hardware doubles every 18-24 months (Moore’s Law) </li></ul><ul><li>Bandwidth capacity: Doubles every two years in wired environment (Gilder’s Law and Nielsen’s Law) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Doubles every 2.5 years - wireless (Cooper’s Law). </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Digital storage capacity : Doubled every 23 months since 1956 (Kryder’s Law) </li></ul><ul><li>Others: miniaturization, density of graphical displays, file compression, sensor/RFID proliferation </li></ul>August 22, 2010
    19. 19. Futurism 101 – the operating/apps side <ul><li>Titanic struggle: Apps (push /closed ) vs. browser (pull /open ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Relevance – quality information </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Real-time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Relatedness – ‘smart’ web </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Comeback of media brands? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Expansion of local awareness </li></ul><ul><li>Conversational user interface / translation upgrades </li></ul><ul><li>“ Social graph” expansions and nuances </li></ul><ul><li>Rise of the “internet of things” </li></ul><ul><li>MUCH MORE DATA FOR YOU – new audience metrics captured computationally </li></ul>August 22, 2010
    20. 20. Metaverse Roadmap http://www.metaverseroadmap.org/overview/ Augmentation Simulation External Intimate Augmented Reality (“first down lines”; smart phone apps) Lifelogging (JustinTV and social media) Mirror Worlds (Google Earth) Virtual Worlds (Second Life)
    21. 21. <ul><li>What kind of internet we have </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Architecture - “do-over” internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Security, mobility, instrumentation, protocols </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What kind of information policies we have </li></ul><ul><ul><li>property in the digital age </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>cultural concerns and national policies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What kinds of policies and norms we have about privacy and identity </li></ul><ul><li>How Millennials will act as they age </li></ul>Critical uncertainties August 22, 2010
    22. 22. August 22, 2010 2 models to help you organize your thinking about your place in the value chain
    23. 23. Pew Research Center’s Tom Rosenstiel model: Journalism as a service – not product The Eight Functions of 21st Century Media - Authentication - Sense Making - Watch Dog - Smart Aggregation - Witness - Empowerment - Forum Leader - Role Model
    24. 24. Charlie Firestone model
    25. 25. Thank you! <ul><li>Lee Rainie </li></ul><ul><li>Director </li></ul><ul><li>Pew Internet & American Life Project </li></ul><ul><li>1615 L Street NW </li></ul><ul><li>Suite 700 </li></ul><ul><li>Washington, DC 20036 </li></ul><ul><li>Email: [email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter: http://twitter.com/lrainie </li></ul><ul><li>202-419-4500 </li></ul>June 25, 2010
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