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The Changing Digital Landscape Three revolutions … and the three upheavals yet to come Meeting of Center for Digital Infor...
October 22, 2010 Apology Revolution 1 Internet and broadband
 
 
October 22, 2010 Apology Revolution 2 Wireless connectivity
Cell phone owners – 85%
Mobile internet connectors – 57%
New cell and wireless realities <ul><li>More than 2/3 of adults and 3/4 of teens use the cloud </li></ul><ul><li>Web vs. a...
October 22, 2010 Apology Revolution 3 Social networking
 
Upheaval – 1 Gadgets and interfaces
Changes underway <ul><li>Voice, translation, natural language search, projectors, screens, wearable devices make informati...
Are hot future gadgets evident now? October 22, 2010 July 9, 2010 Hot gadgets and apps that will capture the imagination o...
Upheaval – 2 The metaverse
The virtual world merges with real world <ul><li>Metaverse Roadmap: The internet of things enhances the internet of people...
Upheaval – 3 The exaflood
We enter the age of “big data” and “the internet of things” <ul><li>Exabyte: 1 billion gigabytes (10 18   ) </li></ul><ul>...
Implications <ul><li>Constant connectivity changes social patterns and info flows: need for real-time info/analytics </li>...
Choices organizations face <ul><li>Soul strategy – commodity vs. franchise </li></ul><ul><li>Networking strategy – identif...
The end
<ul><li>What kind of internet we have  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Architecture - “do-over” internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>...
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Changing digital landscape

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  • Cromwell’s soldiers http://www.doyle.com.au/history_pt3.htm
  • Cromwell’s soldiers http://www.doyle.com.au/history_pt3.htm
  • Cromwell’s soldiers http://www.doyle.com.au/history_pt3.htm
  • Security: No one expected that the level of malevolence online to be what it is, so the “start over” crowd would love to build a new system that would do a better job of authenticating people and their computers in a way that would keep hazards like viruses far away so that you wouldn’t have to buy special software for protection.   Mobility: The internet was invented with fixed and stationary computers in mind and the fact that wireless connectivity has exploded the way it has … has caught many by surprise. The “start over” folks want to create a new system to assign internet addresses to small and mobile devices such as sensors, phones, and embedded processors in cars would allow them to connect to the internet securely.   Instrumentation: When we asked experts three years ago what had surprised them most their first answer was the growth of the Web itself. Their second answer was the way file-sharing through peer-to-peer networks had emerged. Basically no one foresaw the level of traffic the internet would bear and there are all sorts of hassles in the way data moves on the internet these days. So, the “start over” folks would like to build something allowing all pieces of the network to have the ability to detect and report emerging problems such as technical breakdowns, traffic jams, or replicating worms to network administrators.   Protocols: These traffic flow concerns also prompt “start over” architects to want to structure better traffic routing agreements between internet service providers that would allow them to collaborate on advance services without compromising their businesses.   See http://www.technologyreview.com/InfoTech-Networks/wtr_16051,258,p1.html
  • Transcript of "Changing digital landscape"

    1. 1. The Changing Digital Landscape Three revolutions … and the three upheavals yet to come Meeting of Center for Digital Information October 22, 2010 Lee Rainie: Director, Pew Internet Project
    2. 2. October 22, 2010 Apology Revolution 1 Internet and broadband
    3. 5. October 22, 2010 Apology Revolution 2 Wireless connectivity
    4. 6. Cell phone owners – 85%
    5. 7. Mobile internet connectors – 57%
    6. 8. New cell and wireless realities <ul><li>More than 2/3 of adults and 3/4 of teens use the cloud </li></ul><ul><li>Web vs. apps struggle: 35% have apps; 24% use apps </li></ul><ul><li>Features used by cell owners </li></ul><ul><ul><li>76% take pictures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>74% are texters (text overtakes talk in frequency in 2009) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>39% browse internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>34% are email users </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>34% record videos </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>34% play games </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>33% play music </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>30% are IM-ers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7% participate in video calls </li></ul></ul>
    7. 9. October 22, 2010 Apology Revolution 3 Social networking
    8. 11. Upheaval – 1 Gadgets and interfaces
    9. 12. Changes underway <ul><li>Voice, translation, natural language search, projectors, screens, wearable devices make information …. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pew Internet danah boyd </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>pervasive - persistent </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>portable - replicable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>personal - scalable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>participatory - searchable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> COLLAPSED CONTEXTS </li></ul></ul>
    10. 13. Are hot future gadgets evident now? October 22, 2010 July 9, 2010 Hot gadgets and apps that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 will often come “out of the blue” and not have been anticipated by many of today’s savviest innovators. 81% experts The hot gadgets and applications that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 are pretty evident today and will not take many of today’s savviest innovators by surprise. 16% experts
    11. 14. Upheaval – 2 The metaverse
    12. 15. The virtual world merges with real world <ul><li>Metaverse Roadmap: The internet of things enhances the internet of people </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Augmented reality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mirror worlds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Life logging </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Virtual worlds </li></ul></ul>
    13. 16. Upheaval – 3 The exaflood
    14. 17. We enter the age of “big data” and “the internet of things” <ul><li>Exabyte: 1 billion gigabytes (10 18 ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2002: 5 exabytes of info on entire internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2010: 21 exabytes pass on internet per month </li></ul></ul>
    15. 18. Implications <ul><li>Constant connectivity changes social patterns and info flows: need for real-time info/analytics </li></ul><ul><li>Niches proliferate </li></ul><ul><li>Media power balances shift and boundaries blur </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Old media vs. new media </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Producers vs. consumers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New intermediaries </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Influence shifts to social networks </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Attention to info </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evaluation of info </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Action on info, including creation </li></ul></ul>
    16. 19. Choices organizations face <ul><li>Soul strategy – commodity vs. franchise </li></ul><ul><li>Networking strategy – identifying influencers, natural alliances, availability AAA </li></ul><ul><li>Engagement strategy – VOG vs. VOBW </li></ul><ul><li>Learning and innovation strategy </li></ul>
    17. 20. The end
    18. 21. <ul><li>What kind of internet we have </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Architecture - “do-over” internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Security, mobility, instrumentation, protocols </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What kind of information policies we have </li></ul><ul><ul><li>property in the digital age </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>cultural concerns and national policies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What kinds of policies and norms we have about privacy and identity </li></ul>Critical uncertainties October 22, 2010
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