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The emerging information landscape The 8 realities of the “new normal”
 

The emerging information landscape The 8 realities of the “new normal”

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Director Lee Rainie gave a keynote at the NFAIS annual conference about the way the internet and mobile connectivity have transformed the worlds of networked individuals. He discussed how normal life ...

Director Lee Rainie gave a keynote at the NFAIS annual conference about the way the internet and mobile connectivity have transformed the worlds of networked individuals. He discussed how normal life has changed in the past decade because of three revolutions in technology: 1) the spread of broadband; 2) the rise of mobile connectivity; and 3) the emergence of technological social networks. He will discuss trends and likely future developments in technology that will shape the way people learn, share, and create information.

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The emerging information landscape The 8 realities of the “new normal” The emerging information landscape The 8 realities of the “new normal” Presentation Transcript

  • The emerging information landscape The 8 realities of the “new normal” Lee Rainie, Director, Pew Internet Project 2.26.12 NFAIS - Philadelphia Email: Lrainie@pewinternet.org Twitter: @Lrainie PewInternet.org
  • we need a tshirt, "I survived the keynote disaster of 09" “Tweckle (twek’ul) vt. Toabuse a speakerdontTwitter its awesome in the "I to want toturn away from the accident because I followers ain the audience might see severed head" waywhile he/she is speaking.”too bad they took my utensils away w/ my plate. I could have jammed the butter knife into my temple. 3
  • New normal – circa 1999 • Non-internet user, and users were … • Male • White • College educated • Dial-up at 32/kbits • Email • Directory and portal search • Chat rooms • Napster • TiVo
  • Digital Revolution 1Internet (80%) and Broadband at home (66%) Home broadband Home dial-up80%70% 71%60%50% 66%40%30%20%10% 0% June April March March April March March March April April May May August Jan 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012
  • Networked creators are everywhere (two-thirds of adults; three-quarters of teens)• 66% of int. users are social networking site users• 55% share photos• 37% contribute rankings and ratings• 33% create content tags• 30% share personal creations• 26% post comments on sites and blogs• 15% have personal website• 15% are content remixers• 14% are bloggers• 13% use Twitter• 6% location services – 9% allow location awareness from social media – 23% maps etc.
  • 56% of adults own laptops –up from 30% in 200652% of adults own DVRs –up from 3% in 200244% of adults own MP3 players –up from 11% in 200542% of adults own game consoles19% of adults own e-book readers - Kindle19% of adults own tablet computer - iPad
  • Digital Revolution 2 Mobile – 87% 327.6 Total U.S. population: 315.5 million
  • 4X% of adults/2X% of teens own “smartphones”
  • Apps – 50% of adults Sept 2009 May 2010 August 2011100%80%60% 50*40% 38* 38 43* 43 29* 22%20% 0% Download apps to their Have preloaded apps on Total who have apps on phone their phone phone
  • Digital Revolution 3 Social networking – 50% of all adults100% % of internet users 86% 85%80% 83% 70% 71% 76% 67% 61%60% 52% 48% 49% 47% 51%40% 35% 25% 33% 25% 26%20% 9% 8% 11% 13% 7% 7% 4% 0% 6% 1% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+
  • Mean size of Facebook friends network350.0300.0250.0200.0150.0 318.5100.0 197.6 155.7 50.0 85.1 78.4 42.0 0.0 Millennials Gen X Younger Older Boomers Silent G.I. Generation (18-34) (35-46) Boomers (57-65) Generation (75+) (47-56) (66-74)
  • New normal – circa 2012 • Broadband • Mobile • Gender parity • Race and ethnicity parity • Less SES stratification • Less generational variance • Email • Search • Social networking and content creation • Video on demand
  • Eight realities ofthe new normalfor information users and providers
  • New Reality 1) The world is full of networked individuals using networked information Image attribution: Flickrverse, Expanding Ever with New Galaxies Forming Cobalt123 http://www.flickr.com/photos/cobalt/34248855/sizes/z/in/photostream/
  • New Reality 2) The 4 V’s of information “physics” changeVolume VelocityVibrance Valence / Relevance
  • New Reality 3) People are shifting info platforms
  • New Reality 3) Corollary People use multiple platforms News platforms Americans use on typical day 90 78 80 73 70 61% of adults (18+) 60 54 50 50 40 30 20 17 10 0 Local TV National Online Radio Local National network/cable newspaper newspaper
  • New Reality 3) CorollaryPeople blend platforms – 59% use online and offline # of news platforms Americans use typical day 70% 60% 46% 46% % of adults (18+) 50% 40% 30% 20% 7% 10% 0% 1 platform 2-3 platforms 4-6 platforms
  • New Reality 3) CorollaryPeople are not platform zealots
  • New Reality 3) People’s encounters with information change Portable Participatory
  • New Reality 3) People’s encounters with information change Personal
  • New Reality 4) Influence is migrating from organizations to networks and new “experts”Traditional experts with new platforms, esp. blogsAmateur experts who are avid contributors – sometimes with tribesNew algorithmic authorities
  • New Reality 4) CorollarySocial networks are more influential and are differently segmented and layered Sentries
  • New Reality 4) CorollarySocial networks are more influential and are differently segmented and layeredEvaluators
  • New Reality 4) CorollarySocial networks are more influential and are differently segmented and layered Audience
  • New Reality 5) People’s attention zones have changed• Continuous partial attention to media streams• Immersion in deep dives• Info-snacking in free moments
  • New reality 5) CorollaryPeople graze for info all day long
  • New Reality 6) Knowledge containers and displays are changing in the age of the “metaverse”
  • New Reality 7) New divides are emerging based on new tech literacies
  • New Reality 8) The future is uncertainYour map is wrong!
  • New Reality 8) CorollariesThe architecture itselfInformation policiesSocial norms and attitudes
  • Therefore …• … confront the existential question: What’s our franchise?• … what’s our mobile play?• … what’s our social play (natural alliances)?• … prepare for disruptions … … from “social” actors who aren’t looking for money or who don’t like current business models or credentials … from new analysts in the world of “big data” … from tech companies that see themselves as publishers/creators/curators
  • Thank you!