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Poll FL NM OH VA

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Poll FL NM OH VA Poll FL NM OH VA Presentation Transcript

  • Environment Group Mark Mellman  mmellman@mellmangroup.com 1023 31st Street, NW  5th Floor  Washington, DC 20007 ph 202-625-0370  fx 202-625-0371  www.mellmangroup.com 1
  • Key Findings •Voters In Each Of These Swing Districts See Global Warming As A Real And Serious Threat That Is Happening Now •Voters In Each Swing District Believe Efforts To Reduce Global Warming Will Create Jobs, Not Eliminate Them •Voters In Each District Strongly Favor Action To Reduce Carbon Emissions •A Candidate Using A Supporter’s Message Overwhelms An Opponent Using The Opposition’s Arguments 2
  • Methodology • Surveys In 4 Swing Congressional Districts In FL-2, NM-2, OH-16, And VA-5 • 400 Likely 2010 General Election Voters In Each District • Interviews Conducted:  FL-2: 7/30 - 8/02  NM-2: 8/6 - 8/9  OH-16: 8/17 – 8/19  VA-5: 8/20 – 8/23 • Margin Of Error +/- 4.9% Overall, Higher For Subgroups 3
  • Voters In Each Of These Swing Districts See Global Warming As A Real And Serious Threat That Is Happening Now 4
  • Large Majorities In Each District Believe Global Warming Is Either Happening Now Or Will Happen Do you think that global warming is a problem happening now, do you think that global warming will happen in the future, or do you think that global warming will not happen – or don’t you have an opinion on this? FL-2 NM-2 OH-16 VA-5 Happening 48% 52% 47% 57% Now 24% 72% 20% 72% 24% 71% 20% 77% Will Happen 20% 21% 20% 14% Will Not Happen 9% 8% 9% 9% NO/DK 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% 5
  • Large Majorities In Each District Are Convinced That Global Warming Poses A Threat Generally speaking, how serious of a threat do you think global warming is today – very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not serious at all – or don’t you have an opinion on this? FL-2 NM-2 OH-16 VA-5 57% 60% 56% 70% 29% Very 34% Very 24% Very 33% Very Serious 40% 36% 41% 25% 18% Not 20% Not 23% Not 11% Not Not at all at all at all at all Serious 4% 4% 3% 5% DK 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 6
  • Voters In Each Swing District Believe Efforts To Reduce Global Warming Will Create Jobs, Not Eliminate Them 7
  • Pluralities Across These Districts Believe Efforts To Reduce Global Warming Will Create Jobs Which comes closer to your point of view: Efforts to reduce global warming will create new American jobs Efforts to reduce global warming will cost American jobs Efforts to reduce global warming will not affect American jobs FL-2 NM-2 OH-16 VA-5 26% strong 41% 29% strong 43% 27% strong 46% 26% strong 46% +10 +13 +19 +19 24% 31% 23% 30% 23% 27% 19% 27% 16% 14% 13% 11% 10% 16% 10% 8% 12% 11% 12% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% (darker shading=stronger intensity) 8
  • Voters In Each Swing District Strongly Favor Action To Reduce Carbon Emissions 9
  • Support For Reducing Carbon Emissions Is Strong Across Districts Do you favor or oppose the United States taking action to reduce it emissions of gases like carbon dioxide that cause global warming? FL-2 NM-2 OH-16 VA-5 69% 68% 68% 77% Favor 47% Strongly 49% Strongly 42% Strongly 55% Strongly 21% 23% 22% 15% Oppose 15% 18% 13% 11% 10% 9% 10% 7% Undec Dk 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 10
  • Large Majorities Support Key Elements Of The House Bill 11
  • After Hearing A Description Of The Emissions Reduction And RES, Large Majorities Support The Plan Congress is considering an energy plan that has two key parts. One part would require factories and power companies to reduce their emissions of the carbon pollution that causes global warming by 17% by the year 2020 and by 80% by the year 2050. The other part would require power companies to generate 20% of their power from clean energy sources like wind and solar by the year 2025. Would you favor or oppose this entire plan? FL-2 NM-2 OH-16 VA-5 Favor 61% 69% 63% 70% 40% strong 49% strong 36% strong 43% strong +34 +47 +39 +53 Oppose 19% 27% 18% 22% 17% 24% 13% 17% 13% 9% 14% 13% Undec Dk 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 12
  • Majorities Of Independents In Each District Support These Provisions Congress is considering an energy plan that has two key parts. One part would require factories and power companies to reduce their emissions of the carbon pollution that causes global warming by 17% by the year 2020 and by 80% by the year 2050. The other part would require power companies to generate 20% of their power from clean energy sources like wind and solar by the year 2025. Would you favor or oppose this entire plan? Among Independents FL-2 NM-2 OH-16 VA-5 Favor 54% 63% 56% 69% 35% strong 40% strong 31% strong 41% strong +23 +38 +28 +53 31% 25% 28% 16% Oppose 21% 20% 24% 13% 15% 13% 16% 15% Undec Dk 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 13
  • A Candidate Using A Supporter’s Message Overwhelms An Opponent Using The Opposition’s Arguments 14
  • Large Majorities In Each District Would Vote For A Candidate Who Supported The Global Warming Bill Over One Who Opposed It For which of the following candidates for US Congress would you rather vote: Candidate A supported the clean energy jobs and global warming bill considered by Congress because moving the country to clean energy will create good jobs in FL, and save consumers $300 bn in energy costs, while reducing our dependence on foreign oil, decreasing the carbon pollution that causes global warming, and making polluters pay to give middle-income Americans an energy tax credit. Candidate B opposed the global warming bill considered by Congress because it will in effect create a new energy tax that will raise energy prices for consumers by thousands of dollars and push American companies to move overseas where taxes and regulations are less burdensome. FL-2 NM-2 OH-16 VA-5 58% 60% 59% 42% strong 44% strong 42% strong 47% strong 63% +30 +33 +33 +39 28% 27% 26% 24% 23% 22% 18% 19% 13% 13% 15% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 15
  • Majorities Of Independents In Each District Would Vote For A Bill Supporter Over An Opponent Of The Bill For which of the following candidates for US Congress would you rather vote: Candidate A supported the clean energy jobs and global warming bill considered by Congress because moving the country to clean energy will create good jobs in FL, and save consumers $300 bn in energy costs, while reducing our dependence on foreign oil, decreasing the carbon pollution that causes global warming, and making polluters pay to give middle-income Americans an energy tax credit. Candidate B opposed the global warming bill considered by Congress because it will in effect create a new energy tax that will raise energy prices for consumers by thousands of dollars and push American companies to move overseas where taxes and regulations are less burdensome. Among Independents FL-2 NM-2 OH-16 VA-5 50% 59% 53% 54% 35% strong 43% strong 40% strong 33% strong +20 +30 +28 +18 30% 29% 25% 26% 24% 24% 20% 20% 21% 13% 22% 21% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 80% 20% 40% 60% 80% 16
  • Environment Group Mark Mellman  mmellman@mellmangroup.com 1023 31st Street, NW  5th Floor  Washington, DC 20007 ph 202-625-0370  fx 202-625-0371  www.mellmangroup.com 17