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RFID today and in the future Peter Harrop IdTechEx
 

RFID today and in the future Peter Harrop IdTechEx

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    RFID today and in the future Peter Harrop IdTechEx RFID today and in the future Peter Harrop IdTechEx Presentation Transcript

    • RFID Today and in the Future Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman [email_address] IDTechEx www.idtechex.com
    • IDTechEx is an independent strategic analyst on RFID smart labels, printed electronics and smart packaging . Our core services provide: Global Conferences : USA, Europe and Asia RFID Smart Labels Active RFID Printed Electronics
      • Independent market and technology research reports covering RFID, printed electronics & smart packaging topics
      • Smart Labels Analyst journal, Printed Electronics Review and the world’s largest RFID case study knowledgebase
      Clients include: Shell Oil Hewlett Packard Rexam Whirlpool Europe Guinness UDV Thin Film Electronics PolyTechnos Schiphol Airport… Conferences and Exhibitions Publications/ Research Consultancy
    • An enabling technology may be very simple yet incredibly useful
      • A wheel
      • Paper
    • RFID System Basics Tag Reader sends signal and “reads” response
    • Radio Frequency Identification RFID is an enabling technology
      • It uses an electronic “reader” to read data at a distance on small “tags”
      • RFID has few problems of obscuration, orientation, speed or reading many at a time
      • RFID automates things
      • RFID is like the wheel or paper – it is an enabling technology found (almost) everywhere.
    • RFID is used for very different purposes
      • Healthcare – anti-counterfeiting, locating people and assets
      • Military – mounting campaigns previously impossible
      • Retail – increased sales, reduced costs
      • Financial and transportation – faster, more secure transactions
      • Animals – accurate, fast, disease response, locating lost pets
      • Library – find lost books, automate procedures, anti-theft
      • “ CPG shrinkage is 2% - $60 billion yearly .” ECR Europe
      • “ 75% of the cost of a retail product is getting it there.” MIT
      • “ Up to 20% of foods are discarded due to spoilage through the supply chain.” Food and Drug Administration
      • Stockouts at retailers cost six percent of sales. One third of these are items in the retailer’s store. Procter & Gamble $180 billion yearly
      The world’s supply chains are out of control
      • The Consumer goods industry is $3 trillion yearly
      • $1 trillion of this is unnecessary
      • RFID can help tackle $400 billion yearly of this waste –
      • Theft, fraud, misplacement, expiry, delay, manual procedures, empty shelves, not knowing what the customer wants ……….
    • Retail/ military mandates for RFID on pallets and cases – 350 million tags in 2006 Wal-Mart ($300Bn): RFID enabled 475 stores, 1000 by year end 300 suppliers tagging cases and pallets of top products Currently receive 3 million tagged cases per week (May 06) Ordered 15,000 readers Massive payback for Wal-Mart: Out of Stocks reduced by up to 48%; stores with RFID 63% more effective at replenishing items. No payback for consumer goods suppliers. RFID suppliers also losing money Major competitive advantage for retailers
    • Retail Mandates What does it mean for the brands? P&G Fusion blades – sales increase 19% by timely arrival at shelf Hanna Candle company 90 pallets worth $12.6M went missing but were found and knock on effect for ordering Altria Group ($97Bn), owner of Miller, Kraft, Philip Morris “ Pallet/case tagging is a pain barrier – item level tagging is our utopia” With pallets/cases RFID can be a solution looking for a problem especially low value low margin goods. Some benefits so far but it is a cruel world of unfair share and gain
    • Healthcare is in trouble
      • Taking medicine incorrectly “ Medication non-compliance costs the US alone approximately $100 billion and 125,000 deaths yearly” US National Pharmaceutical Council
      • Counterfeits : Pharmaceuticals 10% (In third world 30 - 40%); Tens of thousands of deaths every year
        • Industry estimates
      • Errors: 10% of hospital patients suffer an adverse event. For example, in the US, there are 20,000 mother – baby mismatches yearly USDH
    • 6. Percentage Non-Compliance
    •  
    • Pfizer, Purdue Pharma, GlaxoSmithKline item level tagging drugs 30 million EPC Marks & Spencer apparel – 350M yearly from 2008 Non EPC “to save cost” Books in libraries and retail - 55 million – mainly not EPC RFID Market 2006 by Tag Volume Sold Pallet/case 0.35 billion Item 0.2 billion Other 0.85 billion Mainly cards Total 1.4 billion Total Value $1.22 billion Research from “RFID Forecasts, Opportunities & Players 2006-2016” IDTechEx www.idtechex.com Item Level Tagging - happening faster than most think - 200 million tags in 2006
    • Short Range Passive RFID Examples
    •  
    • Example: Gillette razor packs
    • RFID Tagged Products, Cases or Pallets
      • EPCglobal:
      • Managed by GS1
      • Standardisation of EPC tag types and common infrastructure
      • Over 920 sponsor companies
      The Electronic Product Code (EPC) System
    • Example tag: WhereNet Reader 100m Tagged Asset Tagged Asset To “System” Long Range (50 to 100m): - Ability to locate tags: - Resolution decreases in crowded environments. - Difficult to translate in crowded environments. - No ability to write to tag at distance. - Expensive infrastructure (many readers, expensive processing) Examples 20,000 complete cars, Ford Dearborn. Defibrillators in hospitals Source : Savi Technology Inc and IDTechEx Real Time Locating Systems – locating things without them going near a reader Example: Time Delay of Arrival Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset
    • Zonal RTLS “Cell ID” I RF RF RF RF RF Coverage RF Coverage Radius 15m’ RF Coverage Radius 15m’ Building: 1,500sqm’ 17 IR RDR, 4 RF RDR 50m’ 30m’ IR RDR RF RDR LF RDR Radius 15m’ 4m’
    • RFID Value Chain 2006 Licensors of inventions and consultants Chips Chip + antenna modules Label rolls and dispensers System Sellers and Integrators CHIP TAGS CHIPLESS TAGS – small business as yet System Operators and Facilities Management Deposited thin film RFID Interrogation Electronics Horizontal (selling to anyone) Vertical (specialising) Software BIGGEST ORDERS so far $425M $6000M
    •  
      • New mobile phone technology is enabling users to pay at vending machines, sing karaoke, “ask” information from posters etc.
      RFID enabled phones Near Field Communication
    • A smart shelf system for DVDs in a Tesco supermarket in the UK that has increased sales by 4-10% due to reducing stockouts Example: Smart Shelves trials
    • FREQUENCIES – good things Standard for air baggage, pallets, cases Standard for cards, tickets, passports, libraries, laundry etc Standard For livestock
      • Concealed printable memory for item level identification.
      • Compliant with RFID EPC TM Tag Data Standards*
      • Integrated to the package structure
      • Can be integrated to other functionalities
        • Tamper evidence, temperature sensing
      • Short range reading method (range up to ~mm’s)
        • A local electric field generated by a reading device
        • HIDE is decoded in less than a second when it passes through the field
      *Defined by EPCglobal Inc TM RFID without transistors Hidden Electronic Product Code (HidE) lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
    • Experimental fully printed RFID labels - insulating, semiconducting, conducting and protective patterns Offset litho, flexo, ink jet and gravure being tried 8-128 bits read only – 52 companies working on this
    • Library 0.1 Singapore Museums, art galleries 0.1 Europe Laundry 0.1 Europe Animals 1 Thailand, S America, US, Eur. Tires 1 Europe Tickets 1 Japan, Europe Cards 2 China Military items 2 US Blood 2 Europe/US Test tubes 2 Europe/US Archiving paperwork 2 US Air baggage 2 US, China Air freight 2 US Drugs 30 US Pallets, cases 40 US, Europe Books 50 Japan Postal 650 Europe Retail items 10,000 Europe/Japan/US ITEM LEVEL IN RED Global Potential (Billion/Year) RFID Leadership
      • 2006 2008 2012 2015
      • Most likely 0.2 3 100 550
      IDTechEx Forecast for Item Level Tags (Billions)
    • RFID Forecasts, Players, Opportunities 2006-2016 Active RFID 2006-2016 Item Level RFID 2006-2016 Real Time Location Systems 2006-2016 The RFID Knowledgebase Over 2000 case studies listed and growing every month. Covering more than 2200 companies, 81 countries Learn from the successes and failures of others www.idtechex.com Tel: + 44 (0) 1223 813703 For further information read: