RFID today and in the future Peter Harrop IdTechEx


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RFID today and in the future Peter Harrop IdTechEx

  1. 1. RFID Today and in the Future Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman [email_address] IDTechEx www.idtechex.com
  2. 2. IDTechEx is an independent strategic analyst on RFID smart labels, printed electronics and smart packaging . Our core services provide: Global Conferences : USA, Europe and Asia RFID Smart Labels Active RFID Printed Electronics <ul><li>Independent market and technology research reports covering RFID, printed electronics & smart packaging topics </li></ul><ul><li>Smart Labels Analyst journal, Printed Electronics Review and the world’s largest RFID case study knowledgebase </li></ul>Clients include: Shell Oil Hewlett Packard Rexam Whirlpool Europe Guinness UDV Thin Film Electronics PolyTechnos Schiphol Airport… Conferences and Exhibitions Publications/ Research Consultancy
  3. 3. An enabling technology may be very simple yet incredibly useful <ul><li>A wheel </li></ul><ul><li>Paper </li></ul>
  4. 4. RFID System Basics Tag Reader sends signal and “reads” response
  5. 5. Radio Frequency Identification RFID is an enabling technology <ul><li>It uses an electronic “reader” to read data at a distance on small “tags” </li></ul><ul><li>RFID has few problems of obscuration, orientation, speed or reading many at a time </li></ul><ul><li>RFID automates things </li></ul><ul><li>RFID is like the wheel or paper – it is an enabling technology found (almost) everywhere. </li></ul>
  6. 6. RFID is used for very different purposes <ul><li>Healthcare – anti-counterfeiting, locating people and assets </li></ul><ul><li>Military – mounting campaigns previously impossible </li></ul><ul><li>Retail – increased sales, reduced costs </li></ul><ul><li>Financial and transportation – faster, more secure transactions </li></ul><ul><li>Animals – accurate, fast, disease response, locating lost pets </li></ul><ul><li>Library – find lost books, automate procedures, anti-theft </li></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>“ CPG shrinkage is 2% - $60 billion yearly .” ECR Europe </li></ul><ul><li>“ 75% of the cost of a retail product is getting it there.” MIT </li></ul><ul><li>“ Up to 20% of foods are discarded due to spoilage through the supply chain.” Food and Drug Administration </li></ul><ul><li>Stockouts at retailers cost six percent of sales. One third of these are items in the retailer’s store. Procter & Gamble $180 billion yearly </li></ul>The world’s supply chains are out of control
  8. 8. <ul><li>The Consumer goods industry is $3 trillion yearly </li></ul><ul><li>$1 trillion of this is unnecessary </li></ul><ul><li>RFID can help tackle $400 billion yearly of this waste – </li></ul><ul><li>Theft, fraud, misplacement, expiry, delay, manual procedures, empty shelves, not knowing what the customer wants ………. </li></ul>
  9. 9. Retail/ military mandates for RFID on pallets and cases – 350 million tags in 2006 Wal-Mart ($300Bn): RFID enabled 475 stores, 1000 by year end 300 suppliers tagging cases and pallets of top products Currently receive 3 million tagged cases per week (May 06) Ordered 15,000 readers Massive payback for Wal-Mart: Out of Stocks reduced by up to 48%; stores with RFID 63% more effective at replenishing items. No payback for consumer goods suppliers. RFID suppliers also losing money Major competitive advantage for retailers
  10. 10. Retail Mandates What does it mean for the brands? P&G Fusion blades – sales increase 19% by timely arrival at shelf Hanna Candle company 90 pallets worth $12.6M went missing but were found and knock on effect for ordering Altria Group ($97Bn), owner of Miller, Kraft, Philip Morris “ Pallet/case tagging is a pain barrier – item level tagging is our utopia” With pallets/cases RFID can be a solution looking for a problem especially low value low margin goods. Some benefits so far but it is a cruel world of unfair share and gain
  11. 11. Healthcare is in trouble <ul><li>Taking medicine incorrectly “ Medication non-compliance costs the US alone approximately $100 billion and 125,000 deaths yearly” US National Pharmaceutical Council </li></ul><ul><li>Counterfeits : Pharmaceuticals 10% (In third world 30 - 40%); Tens of thousands of deaths every year </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Industry estimates </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Errors: 10% of hospital patients suffer an adverse event. For example, in the US, there are 20,000 mother – baby mismatches yearly USDH </li></ul>
  12. 12. 6. Percentage Non-Compliance
  13. 14. Pfizer, Purdue Pharma, GlaxoSmithKline item level tagging drugs 30 million EPC Marks & Spencer apparel – 350M yearly from 2008 Non EPC “to save cost” Books in libraries and retail - 55 million – mainly not EPC RFID Market 2006 by Tag Volume Sold Pallet/case 0.35 billion Item 0.2 billion Other 0.85 billion Mainly cards Total 1.4 billion Total Value $1.22 billion Research from “RFID Forecasts, Opportunities & Players 2006-2016” IDTechEx www.idtechex.com Item Level Tagging - happening faster than most think - 200 million tags in 2006
  14. 15. Short Range Passive RFID Examples
  15. 17. Example: Gillette razor packs
  16. 18. RFID Tagged Products, Cases or Pallets <ul><li>EPCglobal: </li></ul><ul><li>Managed by GS1 </li></ul><ul><li>Standardisation of EPC tag types and common infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Over 920 sponsor companies </li></ul>The Electronic Product Code (EPC) System
  17. 19. Example tag: WhereNet Reader 100m Tagged Asset Tagged Asset To “System” Long Range (50 to 100m): - Ability to locate tags: - Resolution decreases in crowded environments. - Difficult to translate in crowded environments. - No ability to write to tag at distance. - Expensive infrastructure (many readers, expensive processing) Examples 20,000 complete cars, Ford Dearborn. Defibrillators in hospitals Source : Savi Technology Inc and IDTechEx Real Time Locating Systems – locating things without them going near a reader Example: Time Delay of Arrival Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset Tagged Asset
  18. 20. Zonal RTLS “Cell ID” I RF RF RF RF RF Coverage RF Coverage Radius 15m’ RF Coverage Radius 15m’ Building: 1,500sqm’ 17 IR RDR, 4 RF RDR 50m’ 30m’ IR RDR RF RDR LF RDR Radius 15m’ 4m’
  19. 21. RFID Value Chain 2006 Licensors of inventions and consultants Chips Chip + antenna modules Label rolls and dispensers System Sellers and Integrators CHIP TAGS CHIPLESS TAGS – small business as yet System Operators and Facilities Management Deposited thin film RFID Interrogation Electronics Horizontal (selling to anyone) Vertical (specialising) Software BIGGEST ORDERS so far $425M $6000M
  20. 23. <ul><li>New mobile phone technology is enabling users to pay at vending machines, sing karaoke, “ask” information from posters etc. </li></ul>RFID enabled phones Near Field Communication
  21. 24. A smart shelf system for DVDs in a Tesco supermarket in the UK that has increased sales by 4-10% due to reducing stockouts Example: Smart Shelves trials
  22. 25. FREQUENCIES – good things Standard for air baggage, pallets, cases Standard for cards, tickets, passports, libraries, laundry etc Standard For livestock
  23. 26. <ul><li>Concealed printable memory for item level identification. </li></ul><ul><li>Compliant with RFID EPC TM Tag Data Standards* </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated to the package structure </li></ul><ul><li>Can be integrated to other functionalities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tamper evidence, temperature sensing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Short range reading method (range up to ~mm’s) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A local electric field generated by a reading device </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>HIDE is decoded in less than a second when it passes through the field </li></ul></ul>*Defined by EPCglobal Inc TM RFID without transistors Hidden Electronic Product Code (HidE) lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
  24. 27. Experimental fully printed RFID labels - insulating, semiconducting, conducting and protective patterns Offset litho, flexo, ink jet and gravure being tried 8-128 bits read only – 52 companies working on this
  25. 28. Library 0.1 Singapore Museums, art galleries 0.1 Europe Laundry 0.1 Europe Animals 1 Thailand, S America, US, Eur. Tires 1 Europe Tickets 1 Japan, Europe Cards 2 China Military items 2 US Blood 2 Europe/US Test tubes 2 Europe/US Archiving paperwork 2 US Air baggage 2 US, China Air freight 2 US Drugs 30 US Pallets, cases 40 US, Europe Books 50 Japan Postal 650 Europe Retail items 10,000 Europe/Japan/US ITEM LEVEL IN RED Global Potential (Billion/Year) RFID Leadership
  26. 29. <ul><li>2006 2008 2012 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>Most likely 0.2 3 100 550 </li></ul>IDTechEx Forecast for Item Level Tags (Billions)
  27. 30. RFID Forecasts, Players, Opportunities 2006-2016 Active RFID 2006-2016 Item Level RFID 2006-2016 Real Time Location Systems 2006-2016 The RFID Knowledgebase Over 2000 case studies listed and growing every month. Covering more than 2200 companies, 81 countries Learn from the successes and failures of others www.idtechex.com Tel: + 44 (0) 1223 813703 For further information read: