RFID Forecasts, Players, Opportunities


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RFID Forecasts, Players, Opportunities

  1. 1. IDTechEx RFID Forecasts, Players, Opportunities Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman p.harrop@idtechex.com IDTechEx www.idtechex.com Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  2. 2. IDTechEx Global RFID market Systems + tags Tag numbers value 2007 $4.96 billion 2 billion 2017 $26.9 billion 670 billion The RFID business is booming The only big problem area is retail/ consumer goods Here the retailers have benefitted by up to $100 million but have not shared the benefit so CPG companies have lost about $100 million and their chip, tag and reader suppliers have lost about $100 million (partly suicidal price cutting, partly technical problems with UHF) Result – CPG companies on a go slow. RFID suppliers look elsewhere Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  3. 3. The RFID market is driven by standards IDTechEx and governments 2005 IATA baggage tagging standard based on the new UHF ISO 18000-6 ICAO passport standard based on ISO 14443, the most popular RFID standard by money spent But 2007 FDA does not issue the anticipated standard for item level drug tagging. It now hopes the industry will agree on something. (After 30 years the industry has not even agreed on anti-theft tag standards so there are still three incompatible systems. Forget drug tagging for now !!) 2006 Australian law to tag all cattle New Zealand law to tag all dogs and so on……… Governments place huge military orders, demand national ID and city cards etc 2008 European law to tag all four legged livestock other than cattle 2010 European law to tag all cattle as well Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  4. 4. IDTechEx UHF has technical problems • Chosen for pallets, cases, air baggage and tires • Has problems with absorption by water, reflection by metal and focussing by bent glass (ghost reading of things a long way away) • The promise to reliably read all cases hidden by other cases is not met. Coca-Cola and Ahold now willing to consider other frequencies for this. Others already using other frequencies for this. • Progress is being made. Nevertheless tag antennas have to be customised to purpose. Quatrotec (Alien) focussed beam reader liked by San Francisco Airport. Motorola success in airports, postal, retail ….Supermarkets use UHF OK at one meter or so with little in the way • Unfortunately “Near Field” (new reader antenna and tag antenna) is probably needed for much of the item level UHF RFID – more variety • UHF will never be the same permitted frequency, bandwidth or power level worldwide and permitted protocols are only slowly being standardised Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  5. 5. IT’S HELL OUT THERE !!
  6. 6. IDTechEx Tag price vs volume (tag price is at least 50% of total price in the high volume applications) Only possible by printing - silicon chips too expensive Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  7. 7. IDTechEx 2017 RFID market Tag value Tag number Retail, $3.9 billion 488 billion Consumer Mainly printed – Goods no chip 0.8 cents Other $8.2 billion 182 billion 4.5 cents Total $12.1 billion 670 billion Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  8. 8. IDTechEx Big changes in 2007 China becomes the world’s largest RFID market 40 % of global market by value Peak of deliveries of National ID cards (HF) and their systems in time for the 2008 Olympics $1.6 billion spent on this scheme in 2007 Several Chinese companies enter the top 15 RFID suppliers just by selling in China Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  9. 9. IDTechEx Examples of big Chinese RFID projects • National ID card $6 billion project 900 million card • City cards 7-14 million RFID cards each Largest in the Western World is London with only 7 million • Libraries place orders for over 40 million labels Total demand outside China only 50 million yearly • Pigs – 10 million being tagged. Total demand 2.4 billion yearly – law likely • Rail tickets – 120 million order Potential 3 billion yearly • Secure access cards and badges 50 million yearly • Interest in RFID on 37.5 billion cigarette packets yearly for anticounterfeiting • Law likely on tagging 150 million dogs READ “RFID in China” www.idtechex.com Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  10. 10. IDTechEx Watch out !! When the Chinese have finished gorging on the huge Chinese market and have fully automated, they are coming for YOU Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  11. 11. IDTechEx The most popular RFID In 2007, the RFID market value is primarily in cards The largest single order being serviced is the $425 million one for active tag systems for the US Military Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  12. 12. IDTechEx Summary of tag demand 2007 • No 1 – Cards at $1.4 billion HF • No 2 – Animals at $0.18 billion LF • No 3 – Passport e-pages $0.15 billion HF HF remains by far the most popular frequency Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  13. 13. IDTechEx 2007 – IDTechEx Knowledgebase of over 2600 cases in 94 countries 1000 900 USA still has the largest 800 number of RFID projects 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 United United Japan Germany China France Australia Netherlands Canada Korea States Kingdom Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  14. 14. IDTechEx RFID today – number of cases reported 600 Item level tagging shoots ahead 500 400 300 200 100 0 e s ) ge rt e r et el le e LD e r b e se nc al on cl as po v op ck fo th ga r/U m le hi ili ya t/ c Ph O ss Ti Pe ey ni Ve ag ob m ne ve lle Pa A k Ite B m i on Pa c. ta ir m (in on C A r/i c ke d ar al li c od C C rm te In Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  15. 15. IDTechEx RFID today – number of cases reported HF (13.56MHz) becomes even more dominant as the favourite frequency by market value - Cards, tickets, books, passports … 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Chipless (2 LF (125-135 HF (13.56 315-333 MHz 433 MHz UHF (868-960 Microwave Microwave Ultra Wide Multiple Hz-100 GHz) KHz) MHz) MHz) (2.45 GHz) (5.8 GHz) Band (UWB) frequencies Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  16. 16. IDTechEx RFID today – number of cases reported Financial, Security, Safety the dominant sector by number of projects and value (mainly cards). Retail, Consumer Goods next in number 600 of projects we have recorded. This is because of mandates but very little being spent in this sector 500 400 300 200 100 0 e al ng ty ds ts g ts g iv re y ry er in st fe rin dr or or vi ot oo ca ta th rm Po Sa un irp hi om Sp tu i li O lth G Fa rc M ac La s, y, A er ut ea e, A ic rit uf d d m ur ,A H s, st an an cu an su is r ie gi rt Se es M s Le on po Lo ra al in C l, m ns ib a irl ia ni Se l, ,L ra nc A ai A ks rT et d na an R oo ge Fi B nd en La ss Pa Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  17. 17. Large orders flood in – mainly HF China Largest RFID orders outside come from strange places and use many frequencies RFID Company Value $M Sector Type Country Lockheed Martin 425 Military Active tags/ systems. US USA 433MHz active Army ERG 48 Mass Transit Cards/ systems Italy, Philippines HF Digital Angel 20 Fish 10 meter wide readers in USA LF rivers to detect salmon. Bonneville Power & US Army Corps of Engineers Odin Technology 15 Military System integration USA UHF UPM Raflatac 1 leading Mass Transit Tickets Russia HF to 15 Affiliated Computer 14 Mass Transit Card system Marseilles France HF Services Cubic 12 Mass transit Card system extension – USA HF Transportation. Washington Paxar 10 Retail Passive tags UK UHF Marks & Spencer TransCore 8 Railway Passive tag system South Africa MW
  18. 18. One billion dollar RFID companies will IDTechEx be created but not by those that stick to one frequency or ignore China ………… The biggest orders will continue to be landed by the system suppliers, system integrators and facilities managers. 15% of market value to over 20% Active RFID Real Time Locating Systems and Ubiquitous Sensor Networks Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  19. 19. IDTechEx Largest RFID suppliers in 2007 – here come the Chinese !! Company RFID Sales $M Countries Subsidiaries Profit Main focus 2006 (estimate) (estimate) Assa Abloy 350 US, Sweden etc 10 acquisitions now Yes Cards/ badges in two divisions For ID & secure access NXP 250 Holland Yes Chips Lockheed Martin 150 US Savi Networks (JV) Yes Military systems ERG 140 Australia No Transport card system integration. Watchdata 100 Cards Technologies China Gemalto 140 USA/ France Setec Yes Cards Allflex 100 Australia Yes Livestock, pets IBM 100 Worldwide Systems, software Datang 90 Yes Cards, chips China Eastcom Peace 80 Yes Cards Smart Card China Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  20. 20. IDTechEx Most important sectors by value of tags in 2017 Roughly equal at about $2 billion each – • Smart cards • Consumer goods item level • Pallet/case Second equal at around $1 billion each • Military • Animals Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  21. 21. IDTechEx To learn more • Read the IDTechEx reports www.idtechex.com • Attend the IDTechEx conferences eg “Printed Electronics Europe” Cambridge UK April 17-18 “RTLS and Active RFID” Dallas USA September 2007 www.idtechex.com • Ask for IDTechEx consultancy (clients include Hewlett Packard, REXAM packaging etc) p.harrop@idtechex.com Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd