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84_presentations.ppt [Lecture seule] 84_presentations.ppt [Lecture seule] Document Transcript

  • IDTechEx Chip versus chipless for RFID applications Raghu Das r.das@idtechex.com IDTechEx www.idtechex.com Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx IDTechEx is an independent strategic analyst on RFID, smart labels, smart packaging and printed electronics. Our core services provide: Consultancy Publications Conferences Clients include: • Independent market Global Conferences: and technology USA, Europe and Asia Shell Oil research reports covering RFID, printed Rexam Smart Labels electronics & smart Whirlpool Europe Smart Packaging packaging topics Guinness UDV Printed Electronics Thin Film Electronics • Two monthly Food & Livestock Traceability PolyTechnos journals, Printed Schiphol Airport… Electronics Review Active RFID and the world’s largest RFID case study knowledgebase Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • IDTechEx RFID Yearly Market Potential Today, no more than several hundred million RFID devices are sold yearly. The potential is much larger: Tens of millions Secure access, test tubes / blood samples, toys, vehicle immobilisers Hundreds of millions Laundry, library, livestock, logistics, assets security Billions to 100s of billions Pallets, cases, air baggage tags, smart paper tickets, banknotes, financial cards proof of ownership, archiving, parcels Trillions Supermarket barcodes, brand protection To get there, we need much lower cost tags and infrastructure / software Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx RFID in Packaging HIGH COST Crates and expensive products Today $2-5 tag “One cent Apparel packaging and other moderately Today tag price (5 cents in 2007-8?) expensive products needed to $0.50 to $1 tag tag items” Unilever, Fast-moving consumer goods 1 cent tag or less 2010 or later? Procter & Probably 0.1 cent needed to Gamble replace most barcodes Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • IDTechEx Technology overview EAS (Electronic Article Surveillance 1 to 4 cents) AC, LC or EM. Chipless RFID (0.1 to 50 cents) Distinct technologies: Microwave reflector, Increasing electronic circuits, thin film circuits. cost & sophistication Passive chip RFID (10 to 800 cents) Ticket, label, card. Chip powered by the reader. Active chip RFID (with battery from $1 to $100) Long range (m), real time location, sensors. Emits continuous signal for positioning. Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Tag Price Comparisons Chipless Chip Range 1m 32c Tag 10c price* Range 10-20c 0.1m 4c Target to sell 2c trillions a year Anti-theft 1 bit ID 96 bits More Data k bit *When bought in millions Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • IDTechEx Chip Smart Labels Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Passive RFID: Main operating frequencies 125KHz=LF 13.56MHz=HF UHF 2.45GHz Inductive antenna - flooding Electric antenna - beaming Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • IDTechEx Frequency Flood Area Aim a Beam Chip tag Reader cost cost Price Coil antenna or on tag Line (dipole) or Size paddle antenna on tag Chipless tag cost LOW 13.56MHz UHF HIGH 125KHz=LF =HF (~900MHz) 2.45 – 21 GHz Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx World UHF Band Allocation for RFID Frequency Band (MHz) 850 860 870 880 890 900 910 920 930 940 950 960 Radio wave allocation Licensed to cellular phone operators In Japan UHF RFID Bandwidth ISO Standards 18000-6 Japan: USA/Canada: 953MHz 915MHz (950-956) Europe: (902-928MHz) from 2005 869MHz ( 865-867) Korea: Allocated 912MHz Singapore: (910-914) Singapore: Bandwidth 869MHz 925MHz In the world (868-870) (Major Countries) Australia: 922MHz (917-927) New Zealand: 924MHz (921-929) For global compatibility of ISO 18000-6, Japan and Europe have extreme positions is both edges. 13 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • IDTechEx Achieving the 5 cent tag RFID tag Tag Cost: MIT Tag Cost: Auto ID Center, component Auto ID Rafsec and Rafsec’s Center/EPC (cents) 5 cent tag global aim (cents) (cents) Chip 20 24 1 Antenna 5 7* 1 Chip placement 5 1 5 Chip connection 5 Conversion to Over 10* 5 1 package Total Over 45 41 <5 * Includes substrate cost Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Ultra-small Chips are Very Important e.g. eventually 0.1mm across, 20µm thick • No supply famines? • No brittleness problems • Can go in paper etc • Thin chips double as pressure sensors • Very low cost Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • IDTechEx Scaling up Chip Bonding The problem: The solution: Flip Chip Cost Increases Fluidic Self Assembly / Vibration assembly with Smaller ICs Cost Decreases with Smaller ICs Cost Total Flip Chip Inlay Total FSA Inlay 10c Chip Chip Flip Chip Assembly 5c FSA Assembly 1 .7 .4 .1 1 .7 .4 .1 Size of Chip (mm x mm) Size of Chip (mm x mm) Source: Alien Technology Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Chipless Smart Labels Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • IDTechEx Digital Chipless Tags – Potential benefits Magnetostrictive 35 million sold Remote magnetics Simple Electromagnetic Radiation hard. Thinnest option Barkhausen effect 70 million sold. Very secure Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) Millions sold, Meets standards. Radiation hard Transistorless Diode based Suitable for insect tracking circuits Coil-capacitor (LC) Hundreds of thousands sold. Thin and robust Transistor circuits Polymer Electronics Printable onto products. Meets standards. Silicon film High frequencies possible VTT/Panipol/Mreal pyridene Printable onto products. tag – secret technology 96 bits EPC Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Digital Chipless Tags – Limitations Magnetostrictive Thick. Under 30 bits. Read only Remote magnetics Simple Electromagnetic Under 30 bits. Read only Barkhausen effect Expensive. Read only. Few bits Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) Thick. Read only. Transistorless Diode based Analog. Read only circuits Coil-capacitor (LC) Large footprint. Under 30 bits. Transistor circuits Polymer Electronics Not in production or radiation hard. No UHF or above Silicon film Production process more expensive than polymer VTT/Panipol/Mreal pyridene Range only a few mm tag – secret technology Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • IDTechEx Two generations of chipless RFID FIRST GENERATION: Closed systems i.e. single service provider, no standards, usually little memory - anticounterfeiting, antitamper, secure access, product diversion, in house- track and trace, automated error prevention. Acoustomagnetic, electromagnetic, LC Array SECOND GENERATION: Open systems i.e. multiple service provider, global standards e.g. EPC. Barcode replacement and more - SAW and later polymer TFTCs and maybe thin film silicon TFTCs and maybe the secret VTT/Panipol printed pyridene label which has 96 bits read only but only at a few mm range. Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Electromagnetic Chipless Technology Confirm Technologies Israel Link-Sure UK Flying Null UK MIT US Example: Flying Null thread in a blister pack • Range few centimetres (up to ~0.4m) • World’s thinnest and lowest cost tag Flying Null can be used for machine readable • Authentication • Tamper Evidence • Track and Trace Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • IDTechEx Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) RFID Technology SAW RFID TAG SAW RFID Chip Signal from Antenna to Interdigital Transducer • Produces Pulse of Surface Acoustic Waves • Uses Piezoelectric Crystal (not Silicon) Chip SAW Reflections from RFID Pattern • Produce Pulse Position Encoded Data Pulse Train Leaving IDT • Returns Encoded Signal to Reader Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Reading on Metal SAW Tag with dipole antenna on coke can Reading tags on metal, metal foil or containers of liquids is not a great problem Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • IDTechEx Printed Organic Electronics on Plastic Film 35+ companies Philips, Plastic Logic, Epson, Canon, Xerox, IBM, PolyIC, OrganicID, Infineon, 3M… Lower frequencies preferred but increasing 13.56MHz EPC “no compromises” 18 to 24 months. Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Chipless smart labels 2nd generation chipless tags meet EPC data requirements (96 to 256 bits): e.g. SAW tags (RFSAW and AirGATE Technologies) Printed Electronics TFTCs: 30 companies Chipless RFID tags are only about 2% of the RFID market today by value. They have the potential to reach the lowest cost and therefore highest volume markets – barcode replacement and more. 2015 market share may be as high as 45% as these technologies emerge. Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • IDTechEx High volume item level RFID tagging History will repeat itself - almost RFID RFID printed direct BARCODE Value of printing VALUE directly OF Barcodes onto LABEL printed packages SALES direct and products 1990? 2015? YEAR The peak in numbers is later Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx RFID: the Future Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • IDTechEx PHASE 1 Conveyances (e.g. pallets) and airline baggage • Potential 35 billion yearly pallets/cases • Potential 4 billion yearly baggage/freight PHASE 2 Item level • Potential 10 trillion yearly Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx Global Potential (Billion/Year) RFID Leadership Library 0.1 Singapore Museums, art galleries 0.1 Europe National ID cards 0.1 China Laundry 1 Europe Animals 1 Thailand, S America, US, Eur. Tires 1 Europe Military items 2 US Blood 2 Europe/US Test tubes 2 Europe/US Archiving paperwork 2 US Air baggage 2 US, China Air freight 2 US Drugs 30 US Pallets, cases 40 US, Europe Books 50 Japan Postal 650 Europe Retail items 10,000 Europe/Japan/US ITEM LEVEL IN RED Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • IDTechEx IDTechEx Forecast for Item Level Tags (Billions) 2005 2007 2010 2015 Most likely 0.1 1.5 27 800 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx RFID Applications and Potential Low Volume High Price $100 Military, medical, emergency services, tracking stolen vehicles $1 Secure access, containers, pallets, car immobilisers, libraries, reusable transport cards 50 cents Laundry, air baggage, archiving of folders and oil cores, cattle, designer goods 10 cents Disposable smart tickets, smart cards, lumber, cartons, expensive retail products High Volume 1 cent or less Postage stamps, all barcodes, The Product Internet, Low Price archiving sheets of paper Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd
  • Our Forecast For Mainstream Smart IDTechEx Label Systems & Associated Services (Range over 0.5cm, digitally-encoded) 2015 • $24.47 billion yearly • 50% tags • 13% interrogators and smart shelves • 37% services etc Chipless includes SAW tags and printed transistor circuits meeting existing standards Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx For further information read: RFID Forecasts, Opportunities & Players 2005 -2015 2005- Item Level RFID The RFID Knowledgebase Over 1500 case studies listed and growing every month. Covering more than 1650 companies, learn from the successes and failures of others. www.rfidbase.com www.idtechex.com Tel: + 44 (0) 1223 813703 Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd