The decision making processes of business and government have changed little over the past 200 years, but technology has advanced, the world got connected, businesses are now networked, and everything is moving faster. Making decisions in a ‘slow environment’ is far easier and far simple than a fast one, and today the ‘starting conditions’ and assumptions are highly unlikely to be fixed or stable for long.
It is no longer sufficient to identify the 3 most important parameters to work as a close approximation to the truth. It is also insufficient to rely on past experience and intuition. We have moved into the non-linear domain with 10s or even 100s of variables to consider. Not only do the old way and methods not work, they are downright dangerous, and often with disastrous consequences.
No military commander would plan a battle without attention to detail, comprehensive modeling, and gaming the situation to assess risk. But in government and business managers do just that, they still rely upon the knee jerk reaction, intuition, and past experiences!
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