Why isn't my lap top intelligent ?

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We are all working harder and harder, and many of us have reached our limit. Giving us a faster more powerful laptop might make a marginal gain, and faster broadband complemented by smarter search engines might add a few more percentage points to our productivity, but the big ITC gains have been won. We have become the limiters of work output and not our technology. The technology now waits for us and not the other way around.

To make the next leap in productivity and creativity we need help – specifically, we need machine help! Men and women alike need a third intelligence – a new way of thinking – a new perspective – and a new route to problem solving and creativity. So where will it com from, or in other words, why is my laptop, PC, Pad, Tablet so dumb?

Even with Moore's Law continuing at it's present rate or accelerating, true machine intelligence will remain largely embedded in our networks. The good news is; it will soon be available as a commercial service in The Cloud. Much later, it is likely to appear in our devices to perform specific tasks related to our work, health, life and leasure. In both cases the primary key is sensors, sensor networks, and adaptability of software and hardware.

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Why isn't my lap top intelligent ?

  1. 1. Why isn’t my laptop Intelligent? Peter Cochrane cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e sFriday, 16 March 12
  2. 2. It has an abundance of: - processing power - memory - RAM - network access - WWW informationFriday, 16 March 12
  3. 3. But it acts dumb and doesn’t: - learn my habits - anticipate my needs - correct my errors - learn from mistakes - monitor me and my lifeFriday, 16 March 12
  4. 4. But why even as the question ?Friday, 16 March 12
  5. 5. We cannot work any faster or any harder - we have reached the end of the line ?Friday, 16 March 12
  6. 6. We a r e n o w t h e ultimate limiter and slow down mechanism in a networked world we have created ?Friday, 16 March 12
  7. 7. Not all that helpful ! 38,700,000 14,600,000Friday, 16 March 12
  8. 8. Muscle amplifier Brain amplifier Intellect amplifierFriday, 16 March 12
  9. 9. We face a tide complexity, non-linearity & chaos... and biologically we are not going to get any smarter...Friday, 16 March 12
  10. 10. We have no general math or theoretical framework to fall back on... ...that can cope with the problems we faceFriday, 16 March 12
  11. 11. And we live at a time of greater achievement and creativity than any other... ...at no time in the past has humanity discovered, understood or created so much...Friday, 16 March 12
  12. 12. Just a small selection of things we really don’t understandFriday, 16 March 12
  13. 13. In order to move on we need a new approach... ...help from new intelligences that see the world from a different perspective...Friday, 16 March 12
  14. 14. Old systems & methods are extremely unlikely to be able to help...or cope with the demands and changes to come...Friday, 16 March 12
  15. 15. During the reformation eve r y t h i n g b e c a m e stove-piped...initially t h i s b ro u g h t h u g e benefit, but it is now a major inhibitor... ...there is only science...Friday, 16 March 12
  16. 16. So what is the state of play with Ar tificial Intelligence today...Friday, 16 March 12
  17. 17. And are machines really capable of creativity...Friday, 16 March 12
  18. 18. IBM - Deep Blue 1972Friday, 16 March 12
  19. 19. NASA Planetary Walker - 2002Friday, 16 March 12
  20. 20. Machines that design machines today...Friday, 16 March 12
  21. 21. IBM - Watson 2010Friday, 16 March 12
  22. 22. Life and death decisions are a fact of life...Friday, 16 March 12
  23. 23. But machines are now assuming new levels of responsibility in medicine...Friday, 16 March 12
  24. 24. To say the least this poses some ver y serious issues...Friday, 16 March 12
  25. 25. So what do we know of Intelligence ?Friday, 16 March 12
  26. 26. Stanley Kubrick & Arthur C Clarke 1968Friday, 16 March 12
  27. 27. Dave has a bit of a problem with HAL... - “Open the pod bay doors HAL” - “Sorry Dave, I can’t do that”Friday, 16 March 12
  28. 28. Machines do make mistakes, but so do we...and very often they go hand in hand, embedded in the root of software...Friday, 16 March 12
  29. 29. The generic question we keep asking: Where is HAL 9000 ?Friday, 16 March 12
  30. 30. 1968 2000 Where is he ? 2011Friday, 16 March 12
  31. 31. Three big questionsFriday, 16 March 12
  32. 32. Three big questions Will Hal be here in 2025 ?Friday, 16 March 12
  33. 33. Three big questions Will Hal be here in 2025 ? Will I be here in 2025 ?Friday, 16 March 12
  34. 34. Three big questions Will Hal be here in 2025 ? Will I be here in 2025 ? Will my computer be proud of me before I die ?Friday, 16 March 12
  35. 35. AI plays better games than us !Friday, 16 March 12
  36. 36. AI outsmarts us on knowledgeFriday, 16 March 12
  37. 37. AI control a lot of our industrial process to feed, clothe, keep us warm and transport us...Friday, 16 March 12
  38. 38. AI is now bringing a new level of creativity and problem solving to the party...Friday, 16 March 12
  39. 39. BUT aren’t we just talking machines running algorithms ?Friday, 16 March 12
  40. 40. The big problem is that we cannot describe, quantify or measure intelligence?Friday, 16 March 12
  41. 41. >> 150 published definitions ?? AND - IQ Tests are worthless ??Friday, 16 March 12
  42. 42. Internet Super MIP/s Computer Computing Power Intelligence Level PC 1960 70 80 90 2000 10Friday, 16 March 12
  43. 43. The singularity priesthood 2035 !Friday, 16 March 12
  44. 44. I got a call from a defence companyFriday, 16 March 12
  45. 45. How do we compare systems ?Friday, 16 March 12
  46. 46. P.MFriday, 16 March 12
  47. 47. No P or M !Friday, 16 March 12
  48. 48. No P or M !Friday, 16 March 12
  49. 49. Scanning long term comatose patients of 10 years...considered to be totally vegetative !Friday, 16 March 12
  50. 50. Ask them to think about playing tennis...Friday, 16 March 12
  51. 51. For >60% the brain activity is the same as for you and I...Friday, 16 March 12
  52. 52. They are entombed in meat space...Friday, 16 March 12
  53. 53. Sensors S =0 no intelligence Actuators A =0 no intelligenceFriday, 16 March 12
  54. 54. Axiom Intelligence is EntropicFriday, 16 March 12
  55. 55. compare A 30 second tutorial ! systems ?Friday, 16 March 12
  56. 56. So starting with a simple model of this form... Sensors Processor S P1 System Memory Environs M Actuator Processor A P2Friday, 16 March 12
  57. 57. And building the complexity a layer at a time... Processor Memory Sensors 1 ShortTerm System Environs Processor Memory Actuator 2 LongTermFriday, 16 March 12
  58. 58. Followed by mathematical juggling and normalisation, liberties, crimes, & of course engineering licence... Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )] S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = MemoryFriday, 16 March 12
  59. 59. So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?Friday, 16 March 12
  60. 60. So why isn’t my laptop intelligent? How about: - sensors? - adaptability?Friday, 16 March 12
  61. 61. But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!Friday, 16 March 12
  62. 62. But we are rolling out intelligent sensors! And our machines will see, hear, smell…. …detect and communicate in a way and at a rate we cannot!Friday, 16 March 12
  63. 63. Intelligence MIP/s Level Estimates of Computing Power Artificial Intelligence Internet PC 1960 70 80 90 2000 10Friday, 16 March 12
  64. 64. Intelligence MIP/s Level Estimates of Computing Power Artificial Intelligence Internet PC 1960 70 80 90 2000 10Friday, 16 March 12
  65. 65. The good news !Friday, 16 March 12
  66. 66. Mobile Sensors and Actuators by the Bn !Friday, 16 March 12
  67. 67. Google , IBM are moving into this space!Friday, 16 March 12
  68. 68. And it will arrive on our phones, tablets, pads, laptops via The Cloud...Friday, 16 March 12
  69. 69. ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk Thank You COCHRANE And the day can’t a s s o c i a t e s come quick enough!Friday, 16 March 12
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