When machines think
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When machines think

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In society and our companies we are facing a future of complexity and challenges that require the analytic capabilities of computers to help us make wise decisions. They already do a better job of ...

In society and our companies we are facing a future of complexity and challenges that require the analytic capabilities of computers to help us make wise decisions. They already do a better job of medical diagnosis and treatment prognosis in areas like breast cancer screening, and without them we would be blind to the vast storehouse of information and knowledge we enjoy via the internet. But if they are to become truly intelligent they will need more than bigger storage capacity and faster processing speeds. The will need a network of sensors and a much greater facility to output their data. That network of sensors is most likely going to be provided by our mobile devices, and the output? Virtual and augmented reality, haptic 3D, robotic presence, and more - in addition to sound and vision of today.

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When machines think Presentation Transcript

  • 1. When Machine Think Peter Cochrane cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e sThursday, 10 November 2011
  • 2. The majority of human knowledge has been derived from collaborating with machines ✦ Details of the cosmos ✦ Details of the atom ✦ Decoding the genome ✦ Decoding proteins ✦ Evolutionary science ✦ Weather prediction ✦ The spread of disease ✦ Biological operations ✦ Network traffic flows ✦ The physics of flight ✦ Power generation ✦ +++++Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 3. That knowledge is now being shared by way of new mechanisms on a vast scale... Această cunoaştere este acum împărtăşită prin intermediul unor mecanisme noi pe scară largă ...Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 4. Social networking Other people:Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 5. Social networking Other people: * Read * Watch * Listen * Search * Think * Work * Solve problems * Try products * Find good services * Organise group purchases So I don’t have to !Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 6. Machines now manufacture more products and control more things than we do ✦ Integrated circuits ✦ Hard drives ✦ Displays ✦ Computers ✦ Mobile phones ✦ ++++ ✦ Food ✦ Clothing ✦ ++++ ✦ Production lines ✦ Traffic flows ✦ Aircraft ✦ +++++Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 7. We are creating a society of networked people and things... ✦ Cars ✦ Trains ✦ Planes ✦ Homes ✦ Offices ✦ Devices ✦ Television ✦ Services ✦ Support ✦ Supply ✦ Sales ✦ +++++Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 8. And we have started to understand the depth of something deep & fundamental ✦ The universe is unstable ✦ It is not well behaved ✦ It is not linear ✦ It is chaotic & non-linear ✦ It may be beyond our understandingThursday, 10 November 2011
  • 9. What does this really mean? Ce înseamnă aceasta cu adevărat?Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 10. We may never fully understand.... ✦ Tsunamis ✦ Ecologies ✦ Earthquakes ✦ Heart attacks ✦ Power outages ✦ Market collapses ✦ Weather systems ✦ Network instabilities ✦ Socio-political problems ✦ Genome - Protein interaction ✦ +++Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 11. Responding in time saves lives, resources, time, money....and perhaps the planet...Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 12. We only have one prospective solution - a partnership with our machines... ✦ They store all our data ✦ They control our infrastructure ✦ They communicate with our sensors ✦ We totally depend on them ✦ They are slowly getting smarter ✦ But will they ever be intelligent ? ✦ Will they ever be more than super adding machines & data repositories ?Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 13. What we know for sure ! Ceea ce ştim sigur!Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 14. Continuing to increase computing power & memory/storage will not lead to intelligenceThursday, 10 November 2011
  • 15. How do we know ? Cum ştim?Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 16. We have a model for intelligence that says that sensors & actuators are vital... Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )] S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory ✦ No input = no intelligence ✦ No output = no intelligence ✦ Memory stores facts and experiences ✦ Processing power defines the time to solveThursday, 10 November 2011
  • 17. The primary reason that my laptop is dumb is that it has no sensory system....Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 18. But we are building extensive networks of sensors and that is the first step....Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 19. But we are building extensive networks of sensors and that is the first step.... 00 0’s e 1 in th b er um lyn on he se TThursday, 10 November 2011
  • 20. However, our biggest network of sensors numbers in the 1,000,000,000s....Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 21. However, our biggest network of sensors numbers in the 1,000,000,000s.... Smart phones could be the ultimate sensor networkThursday, 10 November 2011
  • 22. Deci, ce zici de faptul că meta-date?Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 23. So, how about that Meta-Data ? Deci, ce zici de faptul că meta-date?Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 24. What does it know about you?Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 25. Where you are ? Where you have been ? What does it Where you are likely to be going to ? Who you have met ? know Who you are going to meet ? Who you call ? about you? Who calls you ? Who you TXT - IM - Link ? All your contacts All your urls All you passwords What you are doing now ? What have you done in the past ? What games you play ? What apps you use ? What music you listen to...? What you watch...? What you read...? ++++++++++Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 26. Soon to be enhanced with more sensors!Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 27. Soon to be enhanced Enhance 2D/3D Camera with more Enhanced microphone Enhanced GPS sensors! Air pressure Humidity Pollutant detection WiFi triangulation Medical/Care extensions RFID ++++++++++Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 28. Incramentalism ? This really isn’t the next step - it really isn’t !!Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 29. Incramentalism ? The banks/card companies are gearing up to do this !!Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 30. But the real consumer problem is far bigger! ID Pass Debit Credit Guides Loyalty Medical Licences Insurances Institutions Quick Notes Memberships ++++++++++ How many more can you cope with?Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 31. But the real consumer problem is far bigger! ID Pass Debit Credit Guides Loyalty Medical Licences Insurances Institutions Quick Notes Memberships ++++++++++ Just manage my life for me!Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 32. But the real consumer problem is far bigger! Just manage my life for me!Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 33. But the real consumer problem is far bigger! iCards Just manage my life for me!Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 34. But the real consumer problem is far bigger! iCards Just manage my life for me!Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 35. Much of this technology will be extended to other vehicles...Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 36. At a lower technology level wewill also see tagging for lifeThursday, 10 November 2011
  • 37. At a lower technology level wewill also see tagging for life Cradle Chunky Limited to Pretty Grave information technology Data Jewellery Chips and tags on and in everything including goods, animals & peopleThursday, 10 November 2011
  • 38. So, what’s the big deal ? Deci, ce-i mare scofală?Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 39. Our logistic systems waste a significant % of the global GDP...Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 40. Data, admin, dosage, treatment errors kill 1000’s or sees serious disablement !Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 41. Modern farming sees tagged crops and animals + vehicles and supplies !Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 42. Industrial and personal recycling and reuse could be vastly improved to reduce waste !Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 43. But it all requires even more attention to data... Dar aceasta necesită o atenţie tot mai mult la datele ... • There is $$ in data • Even more $$ in meta data • Există $ $ în date • Chiar mai mult $ $ în meta-dateThursday, 10 November 2011
  • 44. But it all requires even more attention to data... Dar aceasta necesită o atenţie tot mai mult la datele ... • There is $$ in data • Even more $$ in meta data • Există $ $ în date • Chiar mai mult $ $ în meta-dateThursday, 10 November 2011
  • 45. Ultimately this is all about sustainability and survivability! ✦ Not more for the few ✦ But sufficient for all ✦ Using what is plentiful ✦ Not fighting over the scarce ✦ Creating less waste ✦ Helping nature not fighting her ✦ Living in a way the planet can supportThursday, 10 November 2011
  • 46. Other implications ? Alte implicaţii?Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 47. We understand a lot about the sociology of people, but nothing about the sociology of machines !Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 48. But as everything is more and more networked...then we can assume that new levels of intelligence will also emerge...Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 49. An early arrival - the 3D printer, replication at a distance, and machines designing machines...Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 50. What can we do with AI & AL now?Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 51. This was not designed by man.....Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 52. Atomic manipulation has been a reality for some time…Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 53. We have decoded the genome and have made a start on proteins…we can manipulate both...Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 54. A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape and function...Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 55. A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape and function...Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 56. Still at an infantile stage - part magic - part reality...Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 57. And then there are sensors !Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 58. Creativity is moving to the edge.... out of control, open, and distributed...Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 59. We will then see new: ✦ ways of thinking ✦ discoveries ✦ perceptions ✦ understanding ✦ capabilities Society and companies will be changed...Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 60. Final Word The £ $ € is in the ʻMeta Dataʼ $ £ € este în zona "Date Meta"Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 61. ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk Thank You mulţumesc COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s 1995Thursday, 10 November 2011