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When machines design machines
 

When machines design machines

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Until recently we were the sole designers, alone in the driving seat making all the decisions. But, we have created a world of complexity way beyond human ability to understand, control, and govern. ...

Until recently we were the sole designers, alone in the driving seat making all the decisions. But, we have created a world of complexity way beyond human ability to understand, control, and govern. Machines now do more trades than humans on stock markets, they control our power, water, gas and food supplies, manage our elevators, microclimates, automobiles and transport systems, and manufacture almost everything.

It should come as no surprise that machines are now designing machines.

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    When machines design machines When machines design machines Presentation Transcript

    • When Machines DesignWachines! Peter Cochrane www.cochrane.org.uk 1
    • Where is...2001: A Space OdysseyStanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke 1968 2
    • Where is...In 1970 it was 30 years in the future 2001: A Space Odyssey Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke 1968 2
    • Where is...In 1970 it was 30 years in the futureIn 2000 it was 30 years in the future 2001: A Space Odyssey Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke 1968 2
    • Where is...In 1970 it was 30 years in the futureIn 2000 it was 30 years in the futureIn 2010 it was 30 year in the future 2001: A Space Odyssey Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke 1968 2
    • The complexityinvolved was notunderstood... 3
    • 4
    • Far more was Where is... than known ! 4
    • What we now knowfor sure: Intelligence demands: - context - cognition - awareness 5
    • Let us pray Let us sprayLettuce spray 6
    • After 1.8Bn yearswe still can’t……adequately describe,define, quantify orunderstand intelligence 7
    • It is just another word thatlacks any full or adequatedescr iption, definition,quantification, measure ormeaning... 8
    • It is just another word thatlacks any full or adequatedescr iption, definition,quantification, measure ormeaning... • Life • Intelligence • Complexity • Scaleability • Value • Think(ing) 8
    • And wordy descriptions of the form... “The faculty of rational behaviour” “An ability to create order out of chaos” ...do not help one iota ! 9
    • Unfortunately all attemptsto quantify and measureIQ have turned out to bea waste of time !Despite the dire warningsabout the limitations of his testand the way it can be applied itis still used today ! 10
    • On the other hand this would not be a goodanswer !Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything from the supercomputer,Deep Thought, specially built for this purpose. It takes Deep Thought 7½ million years to computeand check the answer, which turns out to be 42. Unfortunately, The Ultimate Question itself isunknown. Douglas Adams: The Hitchhikers Guide to The Universe 11
    • So’ where is AI ? 12
    • Kasporov...1997 IBM Big Blue 13
    • Kasporov...1997 IBM Big Blue...and people got veryupset - as another ageold barrier was broken! 13
    • Computer games...today ! 14
    • Modelling the unthinkable & designingexit strategies ! 15
    • Everywhere ! 16
    • Everywhere ! 17
    • AI is graduallytaking over thecomplex and themundane! 18
    • But, what isintelligence ? 19
    • ! ow nk But, what allyis tu ? ac intelligence n ’t do eW 19
    • Remembering,recalling factsmight be ? 20
    • Explain quantum mechanics!Remembering,recalling factsmight be ?What’s your name ? 20
    • Explain quantum ! is mechanics! th do to s Remembering, in e h recalling facts ac t m might be ? ge c an eW What’s your name ? 20
    • Is IBM Watson Intelligent ? 21
    • Is IBM Watson Intelligent ? e! n gin e ch ar se fast a in ly r ta s ce t iI 21
    • Is IBM Watson Intelligent ? e! r! gin ni se e n g ch co r re s ea ak as t spe f a od in ly a go rt a ly ce in i s taIt c er is It 21
    • Is IBM Watson Intelligent ? e! r! gin ni se t! e n g x co te rch re c on s ea e ak e fa st sp som a o d ng in ly go d oi a a ly e rt in ly in c rt a taIt is ce cer is is It It 21
    • Man - Machine conflict is with us ! 22
    • Man - Machine conflict is with us ! ! n ce lli ge inte hi ne ac m an h um in ed b Com 22
    • Remembering stuff ,knowing algorithms,creating the new andnovel ?Remembering stuff& applying arehearsed algorithm? 23
    • Remembering stuff , knowing algorithms, creating the new and novel ? h is! t l ike k ids w ith Remembering stuff ol ho & applying a sc to en t rehearsed algorithm?Iw 23
    • is! th l ike Remembering stuff , pl e knowing algorithms, p eo w ith creating the new and rk wo novel ? o ottIg h is! t l ike k ids w ith Remembering stuff ol ho & applying a sc to en t rehearsed algorithm?Iw 23
    • What we now know about intelligence Intelligence demands: - data...lots of data - context...many examples - cognition...algorithms(+) ? - sensory systems 24
    • My analysis says Comparative Intelligencelooks like this: Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )] S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = MemoryFor detail GOTO: http://www.cochrane.org.uk/publications/ 25
    • Observations on: Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )] 26
    • Observations on: Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]With zero processor power intelligence is still possible Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ] 26
    • Observations on: Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]With zero processor power intelligence is still possible Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ]With zero memory power intelligence is still possible Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ] 26
    • Observations on: Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]With zero processor power intelligence is still possible Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ]With zero memory power intelligence is still possible Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ]With zero sensor and/or actuator power intelligence is impossible Ic ~ k log2[1] = 0 26
    • Relative Intelligence Ic Ir = Flops (or machine cycles) Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )] 27
    • One element ofthe evidence... 28
    • One element ofthe evidence... 60% light up ! 28
    • Key conclusion: Intelligence grows logarithmically and not linearly ! The singularity event isn’t going to happen just yet ! The assumption that is is is based on I ~ PM growth looks to be wrong Kurzweil et al 29
    • Not fully understandingsomething doesn’t implywe cannot exploit it! 30
    • Not fully understandingsomething doesn’t implywe cannot exploit it! Ballistics Newton Einstein Linear Non-Linear 30
    • So where is AI indesign ? Circuit, chip, system design + production control & logistics 31
    • So where is AI indesign ? Big plant design + production control & logistics 32
    • So where is AI indesign ? Complex system design + control & adaptive systems 33
    • So where is AI indesign ? DARPA Mach 20 trial design 34
    • So where is AI indesign ?NASA SatCom antenna design 35
    • So where is AI indesign ?NASA Space habitat design 36
    • So where is AI indesign ?DATA Space search & design 37
    • A lot of AI designcombines AL &evolution ! 38
    • But is AI evercreative ? 39
    • 40
    • A planetarywalker not bythe hand ofman....and notan evolutionarystep on fromany existingdesign! 41
    • Science fiction & Hollywood are mostlyapocalyptic on the topic: 42
    • Science fiction & Hollywood are mostlyapocalyptic on the topic: 42
    • Science fiction & Hollywood are mostlyapocalyptic on the topic: 42
    • Science fiction & Hollywood are mostlyapocalyptic on the topic: 42
    • Science fiction & Hollywood are mostly apocalyptic on the topic:…but the reality is quite different..so far! 42
    • AI is more than a useful tool, it is now anessential element of our future: - Robotics - Cybernetics - Complex Systems - - Smart Materials - Genetics - Proteomics - Nano - Bio Systems 43
    • When Machines Design Machines:Our progress will accelerate.... 44
    • Thank you !Slide set and supporting papers are here: www.cochrane.org.uk www.ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s 45