The next industrial
revolution? Peter Cochrane
                 www.ca-global.org

                COCHRANE
              ...
A prequel !
Not so long ago....unbelievable constraints !
Not so long ago....unbelievable constraints !
An amazing confluence....all the technologies
available in the same timeframe!
Everybody is now on line...




The digital divide has gone...hardware and access costs are
                     no longer...
>5Bn people have mobiles & >50% are internet ready!
Soon it will be everything!




>5Bn people have mobiles & >50% are internet ready!
~20 years of living on line…

…and now entering the workforce…
	

     -Any platform
    - Any device
	

 - Any OS
	

 - A...
For young people, joining a company is like
being catapulted back in time...


                    Networked
             ...
For young people, joining a company is like
being catapulted back in time...


                    Networked
             ...
IT Dept’s can
no longer cope
...or compete !
Creativity is now
at the edge, out
of control, open,
& distributed...
The most important hot spot....

   Commerce              People
       &                   &
   Governance            Soc...
The most important hot spot....

   Commerce              People
       &                   &
   Governance            Soc...
The most important hot spot....

                     Commerce              People
                         &             ...
How the previous industrial revolution is still
perceived....
How the previous industrial revolution is still
perceived....
The reality today....




Machines produce everything....and without them
we would all die...
The reality today....




Machines produce everything....and without them
we would all die...
We have to stand on the shoulders of what went
before....but it was a ‘food to waste’ cycle




 This is unsustainable in ...
Mother Nature on the other hand....has created
sustainable ‘food to waste to food’ cycles




 This eco-system model is no...
How ?
A new all encompassing approach....

           Nano        Bio




                  IT
                   +
            ...
A new all encompassing approach....

           Nano        Bio




                  IT
                   +
            ...
A new all encompassing approach....

                             Nano        Bio




                                    ...
The convergence of ‘dry’ & ‘wet’ science’ - genome,
protein, nano, intelligence, robotics, AI + AL with
old, and new forms...
A new ability to replicate 3D objects at a
distance...
A new ability to replicate 3D objects at a
distance...
Distributed design and production in the office
and home...




With recycling that works and a new ‘open hardware’
movemen...
A new ability to program materials to form 3D
objects of a predefined shape & function...
A new ability to program materials to form 3D
objects of a predefined shape & function...
A new ability to program materials to form 3D
objects of a predefined shape & function...
A new ability to program materials to form 3D
objects of a predefined shape & function...
A new ability to understand complex systems
through sheer computational power and AI...will
transform Pharma & R&D +++
The biggest challenge we face?
Our inherent inability to change quickly coupled
with our ignorance of everything complex a...
The biggest challenge we face?
Our inherent inability to change quickly coupled
with our ignorance of everything complex a...
Where are people & society headed?
 Where are New Companies headed?




                                 More
Less
Where are people & society headed?
 Where are New Companies headed?
               Openness




                          ...
Where are people & society headed?
 Where are New Companies headed?
               Openness

               Sharing




  ...
Where are people & society headed?
 Where are New Companies headed?
               Openness

               Sharing

     ...
Where are people & society headed?
 Where are New Companies headed?
               Openness

               Sharing

     ...
Where are people & society headed?
 Where are New Companies headed?
               Openness

                Sharing

    ...
Where are people & society headed?
 Where are New Companies headed?
                Openness

                Sharing

   ...
Where are people & society headed?
 Where are New Companies headed?
                Openness

                Sharing

   ...
Openness

         Sharing

       Communicative




                       More
Less



       Tech Capable

        Tran...
Where are New Companies headed?




                                     More
Less
Where are New Companies headed?

                   Controlism




                                     More
Less
Where are New Companies headed?

                   Controlism

                  Concentration




                      ...
Where are New Companies headed?

                   Controlism

                  Concentration

                    Hiera...
Where are New Companies headed?

                   Controlism

                  Concentration

                    Hiera...
Where are New Companies headed?

                       Controlism

                     Concentration

                  ...
Where are New Companies headed?

                       Controlism

                     Concentration

                  ...
Where are New Companies headed?

                       Controlism

                     Concentration

                  ...
IT continues to be exponential !
Is	
  there	
  an	
  end	
  in	
  sight??
100 mm                     Shockley, Bardeen,
              Human
0.1 mm        ...
Atomic manipulation has been a reality for some time…
& just gets better – currently approaching the electron
Why is IT really critical?




Well, on a grand scale, we don’t
understand much!
Everything in the universe is
governed by non-linearity and
chaotic actions….
Everything in the universe is
governed by non-linearity and
chaotic actions….

     …but we are linear and
     limited th...
Everything in the universe is
                  governed by non-linearity and
                  chaotic actions….

       ...
Futures
Advance

   Society
   Technology
   Wealth
   Health
   Well Being




                  Time
Futures
Advance

   Society
   Technology
   Wealth
   Health
   Well Being
                         Oil runs out
        ...
Futures
Advance

   Society
   Technology
   Wealth                 Our green effort works
   Health                 & sta...
Futures      Cold Fusion
                         Climatic Control
Advance
                         Earth Management
     ...
Futures          Cold Fusion
                             Climatic Control
Advance
                             Earth Mana...
We now live in a world of the infinite…
       … how do you find, how do you choose?
Predicting the Present


                         Economic Index



       Lag Variables      Google Trends   Other Exogen...
Automobiles




              35
Auto Sales by Make (Top 9 Make by Sales)
Monthly Sales vs. Google Trends at Second Week of each month




                ...
When you get
tectonic forces…
When you get
tectonic forces…

  Shift happens!
The changing shape of societies…
                                          Inherently
 Hunter       Early        Industria...
The changing shape of societies…
                                                   Inherently
  Hunter             Early ...
The changing shape of societies…

          Information
            Society
The changing shape of societies…
Connectivity
Phone   ∝N 2       Information
                     Society
Internet∝N     n
The changing shape of societies…

           Semantic
            Society
                               This all gets
   ...
The changing shape of societies…

           Semantic
            Society
                               This all gets
   ...
The changing shape of societies…

           Semantic
            Society
                               This all gets
   ...
The changing shape of societies…

           Semantic
            Society
                               This all gets
   ...
The changing shape of societies…

           Semantic
            Society
                               This all gets
   ...
The changing shape of societies…
                               Inherently
                              non-linear &
    ...
Web 3.0...4.0...5.0...
Web 3.0...4.0...5.0...

Autonomous:   Sensors
              Computing power
              Artificial Intelligence
         ...
The sociology of people & animals will be overtaken
by the sociology of fixed & mobile things
The sociology of people & animals will be overtaken
by the sociology of fixed & mobile things
A	
  general	
  observa3on	
  !


We reward those who afford us more freedom
                                       – not ...
Spot the problem...

~9 months            Tech Cycle


            ~2.5 years          Management Cycle


                ...
Expect to see books, paper,
telephones, email, txt ++ to
die within the next
decade ...and social nets &
apps take over...
We live in a society obsessed with risk!




  What about the upside/downside ratio?
Modern organizations now look like this…



                            Risk
                            analysis
Modern organizations now look like this…



                               Risk
                               analysis


...
Thank You




COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
Thank You

 ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk

   COCHRANE
   a s s o c i a t e s
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The next industrial revolution

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The old industries are destroying the planet and we have to move onto the 'Food to Waste to Food Cycles' mad possible at the juncture of Nano, Bio and ITC.

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The next industrial revolution

  1. 1. The next industrial revolution? Peter Cochrane www.ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
  2. 2. A prequel !
  3. 3. Not so long ago....unbelievable constraints !
  4. 4. Not so long ago....unbelievable constraints !
  5. 5. An amazing confluence....all the technologies available in the same timeframe!
  6. 6. Everybody is now on line... The digital divide has gone...hardware and access costs are no longer an issue....and nor is software!
  7. 7. >5Bn people have mobiles & >50% are internet ready!
  8. 8. Soon it will be everything! >5Bn people have mobiles & >50% are internet ready!
  9. 9. ~20 years of living on line… …and now entering the workforce… -Any platform - Any device - Any OS - Any Application - An entirely different expectation!
  10. 10. For young people, joining a company is like being catapulted back in time... Networked Cool Apps Unlimited storage Processing Power Bandwidth Fixed & mobile Open, sharing Influential
  11. 11. For young people, joining a company is like being catapulted back in time... Networked Cool Apps Why isn’t working at Unlimited storage Processing Power the office the same Bandwidth as working at home? Fixed & mobile Open, sharing Influential
  12. 12. IT Dept’s can no longer cope ...or compete !
  13. 13. Creativity is now at the edge, out of control, open, & distributed...
  14. 14. The most important hot spot.... Commerce People & & Governance Society Science & Technology
  15. 15. The most important hot spot.... Commerce People & & Governance Society Science & Technology
  16. 16. The most important hot spot.... Commerce People & & Governance Society Science & This where the action Technology always is – and ‘we’ are the primary impediment of change
  17. 17. How the previous industrial revolution is still perceived....
  18. 18. How the previous industrial revolution is still perceived....
  19. 19. The reality today.... Machines produce everything....and without them we would all die...
  20. 20. The reality today.... Machines produce everything....and without them we would all die...
  21. 21. We have to stand on the shoulders of what went before....but it was a ‘food to waste’ cycle This is unsustainable in the long, and perhaps even the short, term - and growth always has limits !
  22. 22. Mother Nature on the other hand....has created sustainable ‘food to waste to food’ cycles This eco-system model is now one we have to aspire to…to live symbiotically with our planet !
  23. 23. How ?
  24. 24. A new all encompassing approach.... Nano Bio IT + AI
  25. 25. A new all encompassing approach.... Nano Bio IT + AI
  26. 26. A new all encompassing approach.... Nano Bio IT + This will give rise to new AI materials, medicines, capabilities and greater understanding
  27. 27. The convergence of ‘dry’ & ‘wet’ science’ - genome, protein, nano, intelligence, robotics, AI + AL with old, and new forms of genetics
  28. 28. A new ability to replicate 3D objects at a distance...
  29. 29. A new ability to replicate 3D objects at a distance...
  30. 30. Distributed design and production in the office and home... With recycling that works and a new ‘open hardware’ movement/culture...leading to new models of innovation!
  31. 31. A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape & function...
  32. 32. A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape & function...
  33. 33. A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape & function...
  34. 34. A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape & function...
  35. 35. A new ability to understand complex systems through sheer computational power and AI...will transform Pharma & R&D +++
  36. 36. The biggest challenge we face? Our inherent inability to change quickly coupled with our ignorance of everything complex and non-linear...
  37. 37. The biggest challenge we face? Our inherent inability to change quickly coupled with our ignorance of everything complex and non-linear... We need help from the very technology we are creating...in order to make the right choices & decisions
  38. 38. Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed? More Less
  39. 39. Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness More Less
  40. 40. Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness Sharing More Less
  41. 41. Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness Sharing Communicative More Less
  42. 42. Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness Sharing Communicative More Less Tech Capable
  43. 43. Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness Sharing Communicative More Less Tech Capable Transitory
  44. 44. Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness Sharing Communicative More Less Tech Capable Transitory Independence
  45. 45. Where are people & society headed? Where are New Companies headed? Openness Sharing Communicative More Less Tech Capable Transitory Independence Global
  46. 46. Openness Sharing Communicative More Less Tech Capable Transitory Independence Global
  47. 47. Where are New Companies headed? More Less
  48. 48. Where are New Companies headed? Controlism More Less
  49. 49. Where are New Companies headed? Controlism Concentration More Less
  50. 50. Where are New Companies headed? Controlism Concentration Hierarchy More Less
  51. 51. Where are New Companies headed? Controlism Concentration Hierarchy More Less Myopia
  52. 52. Where are New Companies headed? Controlism Concentration Hierarchy More Less Myopia Adaptability & Flexibility
  53. 53. Where are New Companies headed? Controlism Concentration Hierarchy More Less Myopia Adaptability & Flexibility People Focus
  54. 54. Where are New Companies headed? Controlism Concentration Hierarchy More Less Myopia Adaptability & Flexibility People Focus Outsourcing
  55. 55. IT continues to be exponential !
  56. 56. Is  there  an  end  in  sight?? 100 mm Shockley, Bardeen, Human 0.1 mm and Brattain - 1947 hair The first IC-1959 10 mm ICs-1980 1 mm Bacteria Today’s Visible light transistors 0.10 mm Intel 2006 Viruses Intel 2010 End of the road? 10 nm ~2020 - 2025 Diameter of a X-rays 1.0 nm DNA helix Silicon lattice constant Diameter of a 0.1 nm carbon atom 1 angstrom
  57. 57. Atomic manipulation has been a reality for some time… & just gets better – currently approaching the electron
  58. 58. Why is IT really critical? Well, on a grand scale, we don’t understand much!
  59. 59. Everything in the universe is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions….
  60. 60. Everything in the universe is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions…. …but we are linear and limited thinkers devoid of tools & techniques to help us comprehend…
  61. 61. Everything in the universe is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions…. …but we are linear and limited thinkers devoid of tools & techniques to help us comprehend… If we have a long-term future it lies with technology & machines and their ability to extend our knowledge and understanding
  62. 62. Futures Advance Society Technology Wealth Health Well Being Time
  63. 63. Futures Advance Society Technology Wealth Health Well Being Oil runs out We do nothing Planet retaliates Life dies Time
  64. 64. Futures Advance Society Technology Wealth Our green effort works Health & status quo just holds Well Being Oil runs out We do nothing Planet retaliates Life dies Time
  65. 65. Futures Cold Fusion Climatic Control Advance Earth Management Nano - Bio Tech Society AI + AL +++ Technology Wealth Our green effort works Health & status quo just holds Well Being Oil runs out We do nothing Planet retaliates Life dies Time
  66. 66. Futures Cold Fusion Climatic Control Advance Earth Management Nano - Bio Tech Society AI + AL +++ Technology Our climate and planet models are Wealth Our green effort works so crude that we have& no real just holds Health status quo clue Well Beingwhich trajectory we are on about …..and if we can influence itout Oil runs anyway! We do nothing Planet retaliates Life dies Time
  67. 67. We now live in a world of the infinite… … how do you find, how do you choose?
  68. 68. Predicting the Present Economic Index Lag Variables Google Trends Other Exogenous Variable
  69. 69. Automobiles 35
  70. 70. Auto Sales by Make (Top 9 Make by Sales) Monthly Sales vs. Google Trends at Second Week of each month 36 9
  71. 71. When you get tectonic forces…
  72. 72. When you get tectonic forces… Shift happens!
  73. 73. The changing shape of societies… Inherently Hunter Early Industrial linear & well Gatherer Civilizations Revolution behaved… Optimizing individual parts can optimize the whole Intuition mostly works
  74. 74. The changing shape of societies… Inherently Hunter Early Industrial linear & well Gatherer Civilizations Revolution behaved… Optimizing individual parts can optimize the whole Intuition mostly Connectivity ∝ N and does not scale works
  75. 75. The changing shape of societies… Information Society
  76. 76. The changing shape of societies… Connectivity Phone ∝N 2 Information Society Internet∝N n
  77. 77. The changing shape of societies… Semantic Society This all gets very much worse as everything becomes mobile and intelligent and sensory
  78. 78. The changing shape of societies… Semantic Society This all gets very much worse as everything becomes mobile and intelligent and sensory
  79. 79. The changing shape of societies… Semantic Society This all gets very much worse as everything becomes mobile and intelligent and sensory
  80. 80. The changing shape of societies… Semantic Society This all gets very much worse as everything becomes mobile and intelligent and sensory
  81. 81. The changing shape of societies… Semantic Society This all gets very much worse as everything becomes mobile and intelligent and sensory
  82. 82. The changing shape of societies… Inherently non-linear & Semantic not well Society behaved… Optimizing individual parts never optimizes the whole Intuition mostly fails
  83. 83. Web 3.0...4.0...5.0...
  84. 84. Web 3.0...4.0...5.0... Autonomous: Sensors Computing power Artificial Intelligence Human Augmentation Decision Making System Control People Support Society Support Commercial Support
  85. 85. The sociology of people & animals will be overtaken by the sociology of fixed & mobile things
  86. 86. The sociology of people & animals will be overtaken by the sociology of fixed & mobile things
  87. 87. A  general  observa3on  ! We reward those who afford us more freedom – not less!
  88. 88. Spot the problem... ~9 months Tech Cycle ~2.5 years Management Cycle ~5 years People Cycle 2 - 10 years Procurement Cycle
  89. 89. Expect to see books, paper, telephones, email, txt ++ to die within the next decade ...and social nets & apps take over...
  90. 90. We live in a society obsessed with risk! What about the upside/downside ratio?
  91. 91. Modern organizations now look like this… Risk analysis
  92. 92. Modern organizations now look like this… Risk analysis Opportunity analysis
  93. 93. Thank You COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
  94. 94. Thank You ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
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