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The curse of efficiency
 

The curse of efficiency

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Of all the species on the planet we are alone in optimizing anything and everything. But this is not a route to long term sustainability, and to move on from the destructive vice of manufacturing more ...

Of all the species on the planet we are alone in optimizing anything and everything. But this is not a route to long term sustainability, and to move on from the destructive vice of manufacturing more and more for the few, to a world of providing sufficient for the many, we have to think and act very differently. Today’s technologies and production methods cannot achieve an equitable, stable and sustainable future for mankind, but future tech probably can.

The key starting point lies at the cusp of nano, bio, artificial life and artificial intelligence, and our key challenge is to understand and master complexity. These components lie at the heart of (virtually) lossless repurposing, reuse and recycling and minimal energy consumption. We have to move on to material printing and programing instead of machining and forging; tagging and tracking instead of destruction and dumping; organic symbiosis instead of environmental destruction.

Is there an existence theorem for this hypothesis? Look no further than mother nature! She optimizes and wastes nothing, always goes for low energy and low material consumption, recycles efficiently whilst achieving impressive resiliency. Can we do the same ? Almost certainly, but we have to rethink our ‘short termism and quick win’ modes of operation, and we have to adopt methods and solutions focused on the long term future. We also have to adopt ‘good enough’ strategies instead of extreme optimization. In turn, this demands a partnership and symbiosis with our machines to overcome our fundamental human limitations precluding us achieving these goals unaided.

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    The curse of efficiency The curse of efficiency Presentation Transcript

    • The Curse of Optimization Future sustainability, technology, industry and society Peter Cochrane cochrane .org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • In a connected of world finite resources a stove-piped is dangerous Wednesday, 6 November 13 View
    • Optimizing by € € € € alone leads to brittleness and instability often with severe ecological and social damage Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • Countries, companies & economies that look like this are short lived Today’s financial systems only produce one result Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • In the long term this is fundamentally impossible... ...you can’t have it all at the same time! Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • This is what business schools teach budding managers, but it is incomplete, and it is wrong! Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • Brit tlen ess This is what business schools teach budding managers, but it is incomplete, and it is wrong! Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • Brit tlen ess Cost of Ownership This is what business schools teach budding managers, but it is incomplete, and it is wrong! Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ η Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 𝓷
    • Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 η 𝓷
    • Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 η 𝓷
    • Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Optimum cost efficiency is at the point (𝓷) where: Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 η 𝓷
    • Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Optimum cost efficiency is at the point (𝓷) where: Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0 η 𝓷
    • Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Optimum cost efficiency is at the point (𝓷) where: Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0 For the specific exponential case: η 𝓷
    • Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Optimum cost efficiency is at the point (𝓷) where: Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0 For the specific exponential case: η C = Aexp(-a. 𝓷) + Bexp(b. 𝓷) 𝓷
    • Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Optimum cost efficiency is at the point (𝓷) where: Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0 For the specific exponential case: η C = Aexp(-a. 𝓷) + Bexp(b. 𝓷) The optimum operating efficiency is found to be: Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 𝓷
    • Efficiency - far more sophisticated than ripping out cost or sweating assets €€€ Optimum cost efficiency is at the point (𝓷) where: Failure cost with efficiency f2(𝓷) Failure free operating cost with efficiency f1(𝓷) f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0 For the specific exponential case: η C = Aexp(-a. 𝓷) + Bexp(b. 𝓷) The optimum operating efficiency is found to be: 1 𝓷o = __ Efficiency Wednesday, 6 November 13 𝓷 _ loge Aa b-a Bb
    • Wednesday, 6 November 13 se ca st or w he T
    • Only humans optimize... Mother Nature goes for good enough.... se ca ...and in doing so achieves sustainable st or w relationships....a symbiosis.... he T Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • €€€€ The minimum decision set Society Ecology Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • te ch no lo gy €€€€ The minimum decision set Society Ecology Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • Even more fundamental to all this is the advance and adoption of new technology that is unpredicted/not fully understood Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • im po ss ib le is im t p o y b Su st ain ab ilit y g in iz old processes and industries Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • The Future Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • The Future Bio Nano AI, AL ITC Wednesday, 6 November 13 Printing Instructing Networking Collaborating Programming Repurposing Recycling Reusing
    • Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • Machines are the biggest communicators on the Plane t They dominate manufacture and production and are moving into design and general knowledge, modeling and decision support Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • They need The Cloud even more than we do ! Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • The Internet cannot scale to 9Bn people and over 50Bn machines on line, but Clouds can Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • We are increasingly defeated by complexity, but our machines are not ! Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • We are increasingly defeated by complexity, but our on machines are not Now outgunning humans general and specific knowledge Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • Half Life of Knowledge Physics ~13 yrs Medical ~ 4 yrs Software ~ 4 yrs Wednesday, 6 November 13 Economics ~ 9 yrs Marine Bio ~ 2 yrs
    • ITC is vital to our symbiosis Material Technology the biggest game changer for industry and sustainability Wednesday, 6 November 13
    • Thank You ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Wednesday, 6 November 13