Sustainability its about time

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The technology to create sustainable futures for all the inhabitants of planet earth are almost all to hand, but the actual future is wholly dependent upon man’s ability to make the right decisions and enact solutions on the right timescale. Unfortunately, the human brain and society is fundamentally limited and insufficiently equipped to engineer a successful outcome in the long term. To achieve than we have to symbiotically partner with our machines to embrace the 100s and 1000s of parameters driving the connected world. A single parameter ($$$) economic system is far too crude an instrument to engineer anything more than one crisis after another!

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Sustainability its about time

  1. 1. Sustainability ITs ABOUT TIME ITs ABOUT TIME ITs ABOUT TIME Peter Cochrane ITs ABOUT TIME ITs ABOUT TIME cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Tuesday, 15 October 13 ITs ABOUT TIME
  2. 2. the Speed of change In this digital world Seems to be getting away from Us Tuesday, 15 October 13
  3. 3. the Speed of change In this digital world Seems to be getting og y away from Us celerat ing Ac Tuesday, 15 October 13 ch te ol n
  4. 4. the Speed of change In this digital world Seems to be getting og y away from Us celerat ing Ac Societal response Tuesday, 15 October 13 ch te ol n
  5. 5. the Speed of change In this digital world Seems to be getting og y away from Us celerat ing Ac Societal response Planetary ecology ? Tuesday, 15 October 13 ch te ol n
  6. 6. the Speed of change In this digital world Seems to be getting og y away from Us We are confounded by the complexities of our world.... ...natural and made made Tuesday, 15 October 13 celerat ing Ac Societal response Planetary ecology ? ch te ol n
  7. 7. The number of variables we can cope/deal with at once is very low ~ 3 - 7 Tuesday, 15 October 13
  8. 8. WWee ccaannnnoott ccooppee wwiitthh lloottss ooff llooooppss oouurr mmaatthh lliimmiitt iiss jjuusstt Tuesday, 15 October 13 55
  9. 9. HHuummaannss mmiigghhtt bbuuiilldd ssyysstteemmss lliikkee tt hh ii ss bb uu tt tt hh ee yy ww ii ll ll nn ee vv ee rr uunnddeerrssttaanndd tthheemm!! Tuesday, 15 October 13
  10. 10. In contrast our machines can cope/deal with 1000s variables and loops at once... Tuesday, 15 October 13
  11. 11. Whilst people don’t get upset when the have to use a spanner... Tuesday, 15 October 13
  12. 12. They do get upset by very clever machines...especially when they outsmart us! Tuesday, 15 October 13
  13. 13. From beating a grand master to exceeding any human at general knowledge in just14 years... 1997 Tuesday, 15 October 13 2011
  14. 14. And then to be better at diagnosis than any human doctor in just one year... 2012 Tuesday, 15 October 13
  15. 15. The bottom line...might just be... the machines might have to save the planet before our inabilities destroy it... Tuesday, 15 October 13
  16. 16. Our simple minded view of economics sees us playing Russian Roulette with the ecology and future of the planet ! Tuesday, 15 October 13
  17. 17. Tuesday, 15 October 13 Managing by $$$ alone is far to crude...we must inclu de far more (impo r tant) param eters to achie ve a susta inable economy
  18. 18. Computer Modeling and Monte Carlo simulation is now a necessity to be augmented by... Tuesday, 15 October 13
  19. 19. ...extensive war gaming ! Tuesday, 15 October 13
  20. 20. Business Future (Vital) Tools Tuesday, 15 October 13 Big Data Real Time Info Holistic Modeling AI Decision Support Situational Awareness
  21. 21. Sustainable Futures demand Symbiotic Relationships ....man, woman and machine.... cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Tuesday, 15 October 13
  22. 22. Sustainable Futures demand Symbiotic Relationships ....man, woman and machine.... Thank You cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Tuesday, 15 October 13

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