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Evolving connectivity
 

Evolving connectivity

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How is everything getting connected and where is it going

How is everything getting connected and where is it going

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    Evolving connectivity Evolving connectivity Presentation Transcript

    • Evolving Connectivity Peter Cochrane ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Possible subtitle: When machines… …come to our rescue! Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • A few axiomatic things I need to get off my chest… ….that may give you a wider perspective(?) Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • We build top down to create complex things to complete simple tasks…   Mother Nature builds bottom up to create simple things to achieve the complex! Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • We are now the limiters of progress… technology is advancing faster than we can respond... ..but it may not be that way forever! Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • No individual can ever understand these! Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Everybody is on line... Soon it will be everything! >4Bn people have mobile phones and >50% are internet ready! Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Everything in the universe is governed by non-linearity and chaotic actions…. …but we are linear and limited thinkers devoid of tools & techniques to help us comprehend… If we have a long-term future it lies with our technology and machines and their ability to help us extend our knowledge & understanding Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • A false sense of confidence! The known The unknown The unknown The known Our educational Our post-education perception experience Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • No human leader, from the past, present or future has the wisdom & ability to govern a complex planet! Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • No human scientist, past, present or future has the wisdom & ability to understand a complex planet! Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • There are lots of simple solutions to complex problems… …and they are all wrong! Single issue thinking is now dead or dangerous Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • People look at problems through one of these: When they actually need one of these: Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • The changing shape of societies… Inherently linear & well Hunter Early Industrial behaved… Gatherer Civilizations Revolution Optimizing individual parts can optimize the whole Intuition Connectivity ∝ N and does not scale mostly works Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • The changing shape of societies…Inherently Connectivity non-linear & not well Phone ∝N 2 Information behaved… Society Internet∝N n Optimizing individual parts never optimizes the whole Intuition mostly fails Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • The changing shape of societies… Semantic Society This all gets very much worse as everything becomes mobile and intelligent and sensory Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Web 3.0...4.0...5.0... Autonomous: Sensors Computing power Artificial Intelligence Human Augmentation Decision Making System Control People Support Society Support Commercial Support Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • How will we deal with the complex ? Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Hypothesis The combined intelligence of all humanity is insufficient Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Hypothesis Our only hope is The combined the combined intelligence of all humanity is intelligence insufficient of our machines Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Connected Population Social Networks Dynamic Network Growth Static Network Growth Time Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Connections My LinkedIn 20% of total M Population Growth 8 7 Model 6 5 Measured 4 Points 3 2 1 Time 06/07 07/08 08/09 Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • How many people in your network, and how many things/devices? Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Human v Futures Machines # Machines Chips Computers # Humans Robots Nano-Bots Bio-Bots # Robots Time Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Our very recent awakening... All life systems Chaotic Creativity Linear Non-Linear Behaviours Systems Problem solving +++++ Human abilities & knowledge Machine abilities & knowledge Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Our very recent awakening... All life systems Chaotic Creativity Linear Non-Linear Behaviours Systems Problem solving +++++ Human abilities & knowledge Machine abilities & knowledge Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • So why isn’t my laptop intelligent? How about: - sensors? - adaptability? Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • But we are rolling out intelligent sensors! And our machines will see, hear, smell…. …detect and communicate in a way and at a rate we cannot! Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • The sociology of people & animals will be overtaken by the sociology of fixed & mobile things Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • What can machines do now? Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • What can machines do now? Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Genetically ~99.4% human If ~0.6% matters so much… no wonder IT systems are so dumb! Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Gradually our machines are sensing more than us! Communication with others Experience?? Experience Wisdom Intelligence? Intelligence Knowledge Processing Processing Information Sensors Senses Data Thursday, 11 November 2010
    • Thank you…. ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Thursday, 11 November 2010