Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

Data Meta Data Knowledge Intelligence Peter Cochrane COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s cochrane.org.uk ca-global.orgSunday, 20 May 12

We are challenged by a rising tide of complexitySunday, 20 May 12

But we have no general methods and models to analyse & understand...we are largely ﬂying blind...Sunday, 20 May 12

Hypothesis: •The time of simple models & mathematics has gone •W e m a y n e v e r f u l l y understand many underlying mechanisms •Outcomes & implications may only become clear after the fact...Sunday, 20 May 12

Decoding DNA is but one example of humans being defeated by c o m p l e x i t y. . . t o b e rescued by machines...Sunday, 20 May 12

Decoding Protein >1000x more complex...networked machines are the only way...Sunday, 20 May 12

Similarly: •Weather systems •Seismic data •Money markets •Mapping the heavens •Medical imaging •Logistics •Data networks •Political negotiations •++++ ...again machines come to our rescue...Sunday, 20 May 12

Underlying non-linear mechanisms are difﬁcult / impossible to characterise... and even more difﬁcult to understand...Sunday, 20 May 12

Hypothesis: The future is about emergent behaviours and surprises...Sunday, 20 May 12

It is about to get more complex by way of new mechanisms & technologySunday, 20 May 12

The next industrial revolution starts here... Nano Bio IT + AISunday, 20 May 12

The next industrial revolution starts here... Nano Bio IT + AI This is where all the real action is going to beSunday, 20 May 12

And a move from cycles of: ‘Food to Waste’ ...to ‘Food to Waste to Food’Sunday, 20 May 12

Sustainability cannot be realised with old technologies, old industry models... and old thinking...Sunday, 20 May 12

Moving on from bulk materials and the destruction of resources... ...3D printing is going mainstream in industry... and soon it will be in every ofﬁce and homeSunday, 20 May 12

Programming materials to form 3D objects of predeﬁned shape & function...Sunday, 20 May 12

Sensors and decoding the genome in minutes will change medicine and care... ...whilst the decoding the protein will lead to a new chapter for the human race...Sunday, 20 May 12

We can only guess at the social implications of new technologies as we roll them out...Sunday, 20 May 12

What does it know about you?Sunday, 20 May 12

Where you are ? Where you have been ? Where you are likely to be going to ? What does it Who you have met ? know Who you are going to meet ? Who you call ? about you? Who calls you ? Who you TXT - IM - Link ? All your contacts All your urls All you passwords What you are doing now ? What have you done in the past ? What games you play ? What apps you use ? What music you listen to...? What you watch...? What you read...? ++++++++++Sunday, 20 May 12

Sunday, 20 May 12

The £ $ € is in the ‘Meta Data’Sunday, 20 May 12

The Cloud - will be a big game changer...Sunday, 20 May 12

We will generate more and more data...Sunday, 20 May 12

So where does all this lead ?Sunday, 20 May 12

Symbiotic relationships with our machines...Sunday, 20 May 12

New intelligences born of networked people and machines...Sunday, 20 May 12

Perspective Perspective Perspective Perspective PerspectiveSunday, 20 May 12

Ampliﬁers of human muscle...Sunday, 20 May 12

Ampliﬁers of human minds...Sunday, 20 May 12

Ampliﬁers of human capacity, capability...and machine intellect ?Sunday, 20 May 12

AI for the professions and the masses via The Cloud...Sunday, 20 May 12

Being used by the medical profession today...Sunday, 20 May 12

AFundamental question...Sunday, 20 May 12

Why is my loptop so dumb ?Sunday, 20 May 12

It has an abundance of: - processing power - memory - RAM - network access - WWW informationSunday, 20 May 12

But it acts dumb and doesn’t: - learn my habits - anticipate my needs - correct my errors - learn from mistakes - monitor me and my lifeSunday, 20 May 12

Not all that helpful ! 38,700,000 14,600,000Sunday, 20 May 12

And yet machines are better at games than us...and outsmart us on general knowledge...Sunday, 20 May 12

They control our industrial processes to feed, clothe, and transport us...Sunday, 20 May 12

And bring new levels of creativity and problem solving skills to the party...Sunday, 20 May 12

But aren’t we just talking about mere algorithms running on stacks of silicon... they are not really intelligent - are they ?Sunday, 20 May 12

The big problem is wehave no: •Description •Deﬁnition •Quantiﬁcation •Measure...we don’t actually knowwhat intelligence is...Sunday, 20 May 12

And there is nothing of much use in the published literature !Sunday, 20 May 12

However, one voluble group often voice their opinion on this topic... the priesthood of the singularity...Sunday, 20 May 12

Their predictions look like this.. Internet Super MIP/s Computer Computing Power Intelligence Level PC 1960 70 80 90 2000 10Sunday, 20 May 12

The deep theoretical assumption behind their predictions !! P.MSunday, 20 May 12

On this basis they predict that the machines will take around 2035 !Sunday, 20 May 12

So, how do we compare complex systems ?Sunday, 20 May 12

No P or M !Sunday, 20 May 12

Scanning long term comatose patients of 10 years...considered to be totally vegetative !Sunday, 20 May 12

Necessary conditions for intelligence... Sensors S >0 Actuators A >0 Memory M >0 Processor P >0Sunday, 20 May 12

Axiom Intelligence is EntropicSunday, 20 May 12

So starting with a simple model of this form... Sensors Processor S P1 System Memory Environs M Actuator Processor A P2Sunday, 20 May 12

Starting with simple models and building the complexity a layer at a time... Processor Memory Sensors 1 ShortTerm System Environs Processor Memory Actuator 2 LongTermSunday, 20 May 12

Followed by mathematical juggling,normalisation, a few liberties, & of engineering licence... Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )] S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = MemorySunday, 20 May 12

So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?Sunday, 20 May 12

So why isn’t my laptop intelligent? How about: - sensors? - adaptability?Sunday, 20 May 12

But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!Sunday, 20 May 12

But we are rolling out intelligent sensors! And our machines will see, hear, smell…. …detect and communicate in a way and at a rate we cannot!Sunday, 20 May 12

In fact we are rolling out mobile Sensors and Actuators by the Bn !Sunday, 20 May 12

Intelligence MIP/s Level Estimates of Computing Power Artiﬁcial Intelligence Internet PC 1960 70 80 90 2000 10Sunday, 20 May 12

What’s hot for the future: - Networked people and devices - Networked machines - Sensors - Nano, Bio, AI - New materials - Sustainable production - Emergent intelligences - Emergent behaviours - Our adaptabilitySunday, 20 May 12

ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk Thank You COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e sSunday, 20 May 12

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Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

by Peter Cochrane

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Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence Presentation Transcript