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Data                       Meta Data                      Knowledge       Intelligence                    Peter Cochrane  ...
We are challenged by a rising tide of complexitySunday, 20 May 12
But we have no  general methods and  models to analyse &  understand...we are  largely flying blind...Sunday, 20 May 12
Hypothesis:   •The time of simple models &   mathematics has gone   •W e m a y n e v e r f u l l y   understand many under...
Decoding DNA is but one example of humans being defeated by c o m p l e x i t y. . . t o b e rescued by machines...Sunday,...
Decoding Protein >1000x   more complex...networked   machines are the only way...Sunday, 20 May 12
Similarly:                    •Weather systems                    •Seismic data                    •Money markets         ...
Underlying non-linear mechanisms are difficult / impossible to characterise... and even more difficult to understand...Sunda...
Hypothesis:  The future is about emergent  behaviours and surprises...Sunday, 20 May 12
It is about to get more complex by way of new mechanisms & technologySunday, 20 May 12
The next industrial revolution starts here...                         Nano             Bio                                ...
The next industrial revolution starts here...                               Nano             Bio                          ...
And a move from cycles                    of:                        ‘Food to Waste’                              ...to   ...
Sustainability cannot  be realised with old  technologies, old  industry models... and  old thinking...Sunday, 20 May 12
Moving on from bulk  materials and the  destruction of  resources...  ...3D printing is going  mainstream in industry... a...
Programming materials  to form 3D objects of  predefined shape &  function...Sunday, 20 May 12
Sensors and decoding the genome in minutes will change medicine and care... ...whilst the decoding the protein will lead t...
We can only guess at the social implications of    new technologies as we roll them out...Sunday, 20 May 12
What does it             know           about you?Sunday, 20 May 12
Where you are ?                          Where you have been ?                          Where you are likely to be going t...
Sunday, 20 May 12
The £ $ € is in the             ‘Meta Data’Sunday, 20 May 12
The Cloud - will be a                    big game changer...Sunday, 20 May 12
We will generate more  and more data...Sunday, 20 May 12
So where does all this                    lead ?Sunday, 20 May 12
Symbiotic relationships  with our machines...Sunday, 20 May 12
New intelligences born of                    networked people and                    machines...Sunday, 20 May 12
Perspective                             Perspective                          Perspective                       Perspective...
Amplifiers of human     muscle...Sunday, 20 May 12
Amplifiers of human     minds...Sunday, 20 May 12
Amplifiers of human    capacity, capability...and    machine intellect ?Sunday, 20 May 12
AI for the professions and the masses via The Cloud...Sunday, 20 May 12
Being used by the medical profession today...Sunday, 20 May 12
AFundamental question...Sunday, 20 May 12
Why is my loptop so                    dumb ?Sunday, 20 May 12
It has an abundance of:                        - processing power                        - memory                        -...
But it acts dumb and                    doesn’t:                     - learn my habits                     - anticipate my...
Not all that helpful !                                 38,700,000                                  14,600,000Sunday, 20 Ma...
And yet machines are          better at games than          us...and outsmart us on          general knowledge...Sunday, 2...
They control our   industrial processes   to feed, clothe, and   transport us...Sunday, 20 May 12
And bring new levels     of creativity and     problem solving     skills to the party...Sunday, 20 May 12
But aren’t we just      talking about mere      algorithms running      on stacks of silicon...      they are not really  ...
The big problem is wehave no:               •Description               •Definition               •Quantification            ...
And there is nothing     of much use in the     published literature !Sunday, 20 May 12
However, one voluble     group often voice     their opinion on this     topic... the priesthood     of the singularity......
Their predictions look like this..                                               Internet    Super               MIP/s    ...
The deep theoretical  assumption behind  their predictions !!                         P.MSunday, 20 May 12
On this basis they          predict that the          machines will take          around 2035 !Sunday, 20 May 12
So,   how do we                           compare                           complex                    systems ?Sunday, 20...
No P or M !Sunday, 20 May 12
No P or M !Sunday, 20 May 12
Scanning long term  comatose patients of  10 years...considered to  be totally vegetative !Sunday, 20 May 12
Necessary conditions for intelligence...                           Sensors     S    >0                           Actuators...
Axiom                    Intelligence is EntropicSunday, 20 May 12
So starting with a simple model of this form...                               Sensors      Processor                      ...
Starting with simple models and building               the complexity a layer at a time...                                ...
Followed by mathematical                             juggling,normalisation, a few                             liberties, ...
So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?Sunday, 20 May 12
So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?                    How about:                           - sensors?                    ...
But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!Sunday, 20 May 12
But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!                                And our machines will see, hear, smell….       ...
In fact we are rolling out mobile                    Sensors and Actuators by the Bn !Sunday, 20 May 12
Intelligence               MIP/s                                              Level                                       ...
Intelligence               MIP/s                                              Level                                       ...
What’s hot for the future:                    -   Networked people and devices                    -   Networked machines  ...
ca-global.org                    cochrane.org.uk                    Thank You                       COCHRANE              ...
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Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence

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Whilst our technology has increased our understanding of natural and man-made systems, our fundamental intelligence and abilities have remained static, and so have our limits of comprehension. It turns out that we are ill equipped to deal with the underlying non-linear mechanisms governing the natural, evolved and designed worlds. Exemplars that embody these challenges include: the folding of proteins; the design of targeted medicines; the creation of new materials; dense energy storage; adaptive/programmable materials; and artificial intelligence. So, to live, prosper and survive as a species we have to look to a symbiotic relationship with our technology to aid our comprehension and amplify our intelligence, and our knowledge in an increasingly connected complex an non-linear world.

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Transcript of "Data, meta data, knowledge & intelligence"

  1. 1. Data Meta Data Knowledge Intelligence Peter Cochrane COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s cochrane.org.uk ca-global.orgSunday, 20 May 12
  2. 2. We are challenged by a rising tide of complexitySunday, 20 May 12
  3. 3. But we have no general methods and models to analyse & understand...we are largely flying blind...Sunday, 20 May 12
  4. 4. Hypothesis: •The time of simple models & mathematics has gone •W e m a y n e v e r f u l l y understand many underlying mechanisms •Outcomes & implications may only become clear after the fact...Sunday, 20 May 12
  5. 5. Decoding DNA is but one example of humans being defeated by c o m p l e x i t y. . . t o b e rescued by machines...Sunday, 20 May 12
  6. 6. Decoding Protein >1000x more complex...networked machines are the only way...Sunday, 20 May 12
  7. 7. Similarly: •Weather systems •Seismic data •Money markets •Mapping the heavens •Medical imaging •Logistics •Data networks •Political negotiations •++++ ...again machines come to our rescue...Sunday, 20 May 12
  8. 8. Underlying non-linear mechanisms are difficult / impossible to characterise... and even more difficult to understand...Sunday, 20 May 12
  9. 9. Hypothesis: The future is about emergent behaviours and surprises...Sunday, 20 May 12
  10. 10. It is about to get more complex by way of new mechanisms & technologySunday, 20 May 12
  11. 11. The next industrial revolution starts here... Nano Bio IT + AISunday, 20 May 12
  12. 12. The next industrial revolution starts here... Nano Bio IT + AI This is where all the real action is going to beSunday, 20 May 12
  13. 13. And a move from cycles of: ‘Food to Waste’ ...to ‘Food to Waste to Food’Sunday, 20 May 12
  14. 14. Sustainability cannot be realised with old technologies, old industry models... and old thinking...Sunday, 20 May 12
  15. 15. Moving on from bulk materials and the destruction of resources... ...3D printing is going mainstream in industry... and soon it will be in every office and homeSunday, 20 May 12
  16. 16. Programming materials to form 3D objects of predefined shape & function...Sunday, 20 May 12
  17. 17. Sensors and decoding the genome in minutes will change medicine and care... ...whilst the decoding the protein will lead to a new chapter for the human race...Sunday, 20 May 12
  18. 18. We can only guess at the social implications of new technologies as we roll them out...Sunday, 20 May 12
  19. 19. What does it know about you?Sunday, 20 May 12
  20. 20. Where you are ? Where you have been ? Where you are likely to be going to ? What does it Who you have met ? know Who you are going to meet ? Who you call ? about you? Who calls you ? Who you TXT - IM - Link ? All your contacts All your urls All you passwords What you are doing now ? What have you done in the past ? What games you play ? What apps you use ? What music you listen to...? What you watch...? What you read...? ++++++++++Sunday, 20 May 12
  21. 21. Sunday, 20 May 12
  22. 22. The £ $ € is in the ‘Meta Data’Sunday, 20 May 12
  23. 23. The Cloud - will be a big game changer...Sunday, 20 May 12
  24. 24. We will generate more and more data...Sunday, 20 May 12
  25. 25. So where does all this lead ?Sunday, 20 May 12
  26. 26. Symbiotic relationships with our machines...Sunday, 20 May 12
  27. 27. New intelligences born of networked people and machines...Sunday, 20 May 12
  28. 28. Perspective Perspective Perspective Perspective PerspectiveSunday, 20 May 12
  29. 29. Amplifiers of human muscle...Sunday, 20 May 12
  30. 30. Amplifiers of human minds...Sunday, 20 May 12
  31. 31. Amplifiers of human capacity, capability...and machine intellect ?Sunday, 20 May 12
  32. 32. AI for the professions and the masses via The Cloud...Sunday, 20 May 12
  33. 33. Being used by the medical profession today...Sunday, 20 May 12
  34. 34. AFundamental question...Sunday, 20 May 12
  35. 35. Why is my loptop so dumb ?Sunday, 20 May 12
  36. 36. It has an abundance of: - processing power - memory - RAM - network access - WWW informationSunday, 20 May 12
  37. 37. But it acts dumb and doesn’t: - learn my habits - anticipate my needs - correct my errors - learn from mistakes - monitor me and my lifeSunday, 20 May 12
  38. 38. Not all that helpful ! 38,700,000 14,600,000Sunday, 20 May 12
  39. 39. And yet machines are better at games than us...and outsmart us on general knowledge...Sunday, 20 May 12
  40. 40. They control our industrial processes to feed, clothe, and transport us...Sunday, 20 May 12
  41. 41. And bring new levels of creativity and problem solving skills to the party...Sunday, 20 May 12
  42. 42. But aren’t we just talking about mere algorithms running on stacks of silicon... they are not really intelligent - are they ?Sunday, 20 May 12
  43. 43. The big problem is wehave no: •Description •Definition •Quantification •Measure...we don’t actually knowwhat intelligence is...Sunday, 20 May 12
  44. 44. And there is nothing of much use in the published literature !Sunday, 20 May 12
  45. 45. However, one voluble group often voice their opinion on this topic... the priesthood of the singularity...Sunday, 20 May 12
  46. 46. Their predictions look like this.. Internet Super MIP/s Computer Computing Power Intelligence Level PC 1960 70 80 90 2000 10Sunday, 20 May 12
  47. 47. The deep theoretical assumption behind their predictions !! P.MSunday, 20 May 12
  48. 48. On this basis they predict that the machines will take around 2035 !Sunday, 20 May 12
  49. 49. So, how do we compare complex systems ?Sunday, 20 May 12
  50. 50. No P or M !Sunday, 20 May 12
  51. 51. No P or M !Sunday, 20 May 12
  52. 52. Scanning long term comatose patients of 10 years...considered to be totally vegetative !Sunday, 20 May 12
  53. 53. Necessary conditions for intelligence... Sensors S >0 Actuators A >0 Memory M >0 Processor P >0Sunday, 20 May 12
  54. 54. Axiom Intelligence is EntropicSunday, 20 May 12
  55. 55. So starting with a simple model of this form... Sensors Processor S P1 System Memory Environs M Actuator Processor A P2Sunday, 20 May 12
  56. 56. Starting with simple models and building the complexity a layer at a time... Processor Memory Sensors 1 ShortTerm System Environs Processor Memory Actuator 2 LongTermSunday, 20 May 12
  57. 57. Followed by mathematical juggling,normalisation, a few liberties, & of engineering licence... Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )] S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = MemorySunday, 20 May 12
  58. 58. So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?Sunday, 20 May 12
  59. 59. So why isn’t my laptop intelligent? How about: - sensors? - adaptability?Sunday, 20 May 12
  60. 60. But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!Sunday, 20 May 12
  61. 61. But we are rolling out intelligent sensors! And our machines will see, hear, smell…. …detect and communicate in a way and at a rate we cannot!Sunday, 20 May 12
  62. 62. In fact we are rolling out mobile Sensors and Actuators by the Bn !Sunday, 20 May 12
  63. 63. Intelligence MIP/s Level Estimates of Computing Power Artificial Intelligence Internet PC 1960 70 80 90 2000 10Sunday, 20 May 12
  64. 64. Intelligence MIP/s Level Estimates of Computing Power Artificial Intelligence Internet PC 1960 70 80 90 2000 10Sunday, 20 May 12
  65. 65. What’s hot for the future: - Networked people and devices - Networked machines - Sensors - Nano, Bio, AI - New materials - Sustainable production - Emergent intelligences - Emergent behaviours - Our adaptabilitySunday, 20 May 12
  66. 66. ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk Thank You COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e sSunday, 20 May 12
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