Transcript of "PVA Investor Presentation November"
November 2012Investor PresentationNYSE: PVA
Forward-Looking Statements, Oil and Gas Reserves and DefinitionsForward-Looking StatementsCertain statements contained herein that are not descriptions of historical facts are “forward-looking” statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the SecuritiesAct of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Because such statements include risks, uncertainties and contingencies,actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and contingencies include, but arenot limited to, the following: the volatility of commodity prices for oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas; our ability to develop, explore for, acquire and replaceoil and gas reserves and sustain production; our ability to generate profits or achieve targeted reserves in our development and exploratory drilling and well operations;any impairments, write-downs or write-offs of our reserves or assets; the projected demand for and supply of oil, NGLs and natural gas; reductions in the borrowingbase under our revolving credit facility; our ability to contract for drilling rigs, supplies and services at reasonable costs; our ability to obtain adequate pipelinetransportation capacity for our oil and gas production at reasonable cost and to sell the production at, or at reasonable discounts to, market prices; the uncertaintiesinherent in projecting future rates of production for our wells and the extent to which actual production differs from estimated proved oil and gas reserves; drilling andoperating risks; our ability to compete effectively against other independent and major oil and natural gas companies; our ability to successfully monetize select assetsand repay our debt; leasehold terms expiring before production can be established; environmental liabilities that are not covered by an effective indemnity orinsurance; the timing of receipt of necessary regulatory permits; the effect of commodity and financial derivative arrangements; our ability to maintain adequatefinancial liquidity and to access adequate levels of capital on reasonable terms; the occurrence of unusual weather or operating conditions, including force majeureevents; our ability to retain or attract senior management and key technical employees; counterparty risk related to their ability to meet their future obligations;changes in governmental regulations or enforcement practices, especially with respect to environmental, health and safety matters; uncertainties relating to generaldomestic and international economic and political conditions; and other risks set forth in our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).Additional information concerning these and other factors can be found in our press releases and public periodic filings with the SEC, including our Annual Report onForm 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2011. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which reflect management’s views only asof the date hereof. We undertake no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, or to make any other forward-looking statements, whether as aresult of new information, future events or otherwise.Oil and Gas ReservesEffective January 1, 2010, the SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose not only “proved” reserves, but also “probable” reserves and“possible” reserves. As noted above, statements of reserves are only estimates and may not correspond to the ultimate quantities of oil and gas recovered. Anyreserve estimates provided in this presentation that are not specifically designated as being estimates of proved reserves may include estimated reserves notnecessarily calculated in accordance with, or contemplated by, the SEC’s latest reserve reporting guidelines. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure inPVA’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011, which is available from PVA at Four Radnor Corporate Center, Suite 200, Radnor, PA19087 (Attn: Investor Relations). You can also obtain this report from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330 or from the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.DefinitionsProved reserves are those quantities of oil and gas which, by analysis of geosciences and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to beeconomically producible from a given date forward, from known reservoirs, and under existing economic conditions, operating methods and government regulationbefore the time at which contracts providing the right to operate expire, unless evidence indicates that renewal is reasonably certain, regardless of whether theestimate is a deterministic estimate or probabilistic estimate. Probable reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than provedreserves, but which are as likely than not to be recoverable (there should be at least a 50% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed theproved plus probable reserve estimates). Possible reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recoverable than probable reserves (there should beat least a 10% probability that the total quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the proved plus probable plus possible reserve estimates). “3P” reserves referto the sum of proved, probable and possible reserves. Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) is the sum of reserves remaining as of a given date and cumulative productionas of that date. 1
PVA Overview• Small-cap domestic onshore E&P company • Very active in the Eagle Ford Shale oil play with excellent results to date • HBP positions in East Texas, the Mid-Continent and Mississippi • While transitioning to oil and liquids, we remain leveraged to an improvement in natural gas prices• Executing a strategy of growth in oil and NGL rich plays • The past two years have been transformational, as we have diversified our portfolio towards oil and liquids • Successful drilling results in the Eagle Ford Shale – 60 wells on-line (51 in Gonzales Co. and 9 in Lavaca Co.) • Adding to Eagle Ford drilling inventory • Successful exploratory results to date in Lavaca County • Continued lease acquisition activity • Strategy has resulted in significant growth in EBITDAX and cash operating margins• Focused on improving liquidity • Sold Appalachia (excluding the Marcellus Shale) for $100MM and eliminated $10MM per year dividend in 3Q12 • Received $32MM federal income tax refund in 3Q12 • Increased borrowing base by $70MM to $300MM in October 2012 • Sold $161MM of common and preferred equity in October 2012 • ~$350MM of recent liquidity and a zero revolver balance • Oil production hedged from 4Q 2012 through 2014 at weighted average price of ~$100 per barrel • Added in 2013 natural gas hedges 2
Business Strategy• Continue our “Gas-to-Oil” transition • Grew overall oil/NGL production 246% to 8,523 Bbls/day from 2Q10 to 3Q12 − Up ~20% from 5,165 Bbls/day in 3Q11 − Oil / NGLs contributed ~55% of total pro forma production and 84% of product revenues in 3Q12 − Daily oil production alone grew 34% from 3Q11 to 3Q12 • Eagle Ford position built from initial 6,800 net acres two years ago to 31,800 net acres currently − Up to 342 total well locations, with up to 282 remaining drilling locations − Includes 117 down-spaced development and exploratory locations• Continue to expand oil and liquids reserves and drilling inventory • Continued leasing and expansion of Eagle Ford – recently acquired ~3,000 net acres plus ~2,000 net acres associated with non-consents and miscellaneous leasing • Exploration of other oil prospects − New ventures or “stealth” team is searching for low-entry cost, high impact oil resource plays• Continue to grow oil and liquids production and cash flows • Eagle Ford drilling emphasis in 2012 and 2013, recently increased from 2 to 3 rigs • 35 to 40 Eagle Ford wells in 2013, slightly more than half of which will be Lavaca County • Continued focus on optimizing drilling and completion costs in the Eagle Ford• Continue to retain substantial gas assets for eventual price recovery • Haynesville Shale, Cotton Valley and Mississippi Selma Chalk are primarily HBP 3
Value Has Shifted to Oil • In mid-2010, PVA implemented a strategy to transition from dry gas to oil • Since then, the decrease in gas prices and increase in oil & liquids prices has shifted the market from a “6:1” to a “20:1” liquids-to-gas price environment (25:1 for oil) • Examining revenue growth by commodity type reveals PVA’s true growth in value Perception: “6-to-1” Equivalent Environment Reality: “20-to-1” Price Environment Gas Producer With Little to No Production Growth Oil/NGL Producer With Revenue Growth Pro Forma Production by Commodity Quarterly Revenue by Commodity MMcfe per day (1 Bbl = 6 Mcfe) Pre-Hedging; $MM 120 $90 100 $68 16% 80 45% 60 $45 84% 40 55% $23 20 0 $0 Oil NGLs Base NG Shale NG Oil NGLs GasNote: Pro forma production excludes contributions from South Texas and South Louisiana assets sold in January 2010, Arkoma Basin assets sold in 4 August 2011 and Appalachian assets sold in July 2012. Revenues are actual amounts received, prior to the impact of derivatives.
Strong Margins vs. Peers • EBITDAX has increased significantly since mid-2010 when we shifted our strategy to oil and NGLs • Cash margin per Mcfe has also improved significantly due to the increase in oil prices and declining operating costs per unit • Eagle Ford cash margin was ~$14 per Mcfe (~$84 per Boe) in 3Q12(1)Quarterly Adjusted EBITDAX and EBITDAX Margin per Mcfe Comparative EBITDAX Margins (3Q2012 EBITDAX / Mcfe)(2) $70 $7 $8 $60 $6 $7 $6.78 $6.12 $6.18 $5.89 $6 $50 $5 $5 $4.61 $ per Mcfe $ per Mcfe$ Millions $40 $4 $4.29 $4 $3.58 $3.61 $3.68 $3.31 $30 $3 $3 $2.61 $20 $2 $2.05 $2.08 $2 $1.73 $10 $1 $1 $0 $0 $0 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Adjusted EBITDAX ($MM) Adjusted EBITDAX Margin per McfeSource: Company filings.(1) Excludes regional and corporate G&A expenses.(2) PVA 3Q2012 EBITDAX of $61mm per Company press release. See Appendix for PVA’s reconciliation to EBITDAX method. EBITDAX 5 for peers calculated as total revenues less lease operating expenses and cash G&A unless otherwise disclosed by the peer company.
2012 Capital Plan Capital Spending Focused on Eagle Ford Drilling and Defining New Oily Plays • Full-year 2012 capital expenditures are expected to be $338 MM to $350 MM • Spending 90% on Eagle Ford • Spending 6% in the Mid-Continent • Includes new capital expenditures related to acreage acquisitions and increased working interests in the Eagle Ford • Maintenance capital for other areas • Preliminarily expect 2013 capital expenditures to be $310 MM to $345 MM 2012 Capital Expenditures by Area(1) 2012 Capital Expenditures by Type(1) Pipeline, Gathering and Facilities 6% Mid-Continent Drilling and 6% Seismic Completion Eagle Ford 4% 90% Other 90% 4% Lease Acquisitions, Field Projects and Other 8% 6(1) Mid-point of full-year 2012 guidance provided on 10/31/12.
Financial Strategy Crude Oil Hedges (Swaps and Collars)(1)• Penn Virginia employs a conservative financial strategy 4,500 $110 • Capital spending driven primarily by rates of return across all Weighted Avg. Floors and Swaps ($/Bbl.) 4,000 $108 operating areas Weighted Average Ceiling / Swap Price by Quarter 3,500 $105 • Capital budget focused on high return, oil / liquids areas $103 $102 $102 3,000 $102 $102 $103 Barrels per Day • Margins and EBITDAX projected to increase on a pro forma 2,500 $101 $99 $99 $100 $100 $100 $100 $100 basis by year-end 2012 based on capital plan $98 $98 Weighted Average Floor / Swap Price by Quarter 2,000 $98 • Maintain conservative balance sheet 1,500 $95 • Continue to increase senior credit facility borrowing base 1,000 $93 through reserves additions from organic growth to 500 $90 maximize liquidity 0 $88 • Target net debt / EBITDAX of less than 3.0x by year-end 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2013 Natural Gas Hedges (Swaps and Collars) (1) • Maintain conservative financial ratios with recent common and preferred issuances, along with cash flow growth and 40 $6 Weighted Avg. Floors and Swaps ($/MMBtu) asset sales • $5.10 Maintain sufficient liquidity to provide capital to continue MMBtu per Day (000s) 30 $5 drilling and our transition to oil Weighted Average Ceiling / Swap Price by Quarter $4.21 $4.21 $4.21 $4.21 • Maintain an active oil-focused hedging program to support 20 $4 economic returns and ensure strong coverage metrics Weighted Average Floor / $3.68 $3.68 $3.68 $3.68 Swap Price by Quarter • Hedges in place to protect cash flow and well economics 10 $3 • Plans to layer in additional oil and gas hedges as prices permit 0 $2 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 7 (1) As of 11/13/12.
Production Mix and Operating MarginsProduction Mix Over Time Cash Margin Over Time ($/Mcfe) Realized $8.80 $8.37 Price $1.23 $1.15 48% 45% $0.52 $6.45 $0.51 $0.33 $0.35 $0.67 72% $0.88 $0.69 82% $5.32 $0.29 $0.33 $1.07 $0.79 $0.29 $0.30 $0.76 Cash $5.68 $6.06 55% Margin 52% $4.16 28% $2.90 18% (1) (1) FY 2010 FY 2011 3Q 2012 PF 3Q 2012 FY 2010 FY 2011 3Q 2012 PF 3Q 2012 Oil & Condensate Natural Gas Cash Margin LOE G&P and transportation Production taxes Cash G&A (excludes share-based compensation)Note: Cash margin per Mcfe is defined as total product revenues, excluding the impact of hedges, less direct operating expenses per unit of equivalent production. 8(1) Pro forma for the sale of Appalachian assets and related regional G&A elimination. Other columns are actual results.
Asset Overview Emerging Oil and Liquids-Rich Plays Plus “Option” in Significant Gas Plays Marcellus Proved reserves: 40 Bcfe % Gas: 100% Granite Wash % PDP: 16% Proved reserves: 96 Bcfe 2012E Production: 0.3 Bcfe % Gas: 54% Avg. working interest: 79% % PDP: 69% Avg. net revenue interest: 66% 2012E Production: 6.9 Bcfe Operated wells: 4 Avg. working interest: 29% Non-operated wells: 0 Avg. net revenue interest: 23% Operated wells: 33 Non-operated wells: 58 Cotton Valley PA Proved reserves: 261 Bcfe % Gas: 67% % PDP: 29% 2012E Production: 5.4 Bcfe Avg. working interest: 76% Avg. net revenue interest: 60% Operated wells: 423 OK Non-operated wells: 34 Eagle Ford MS Proved reserves: 60 Bcfe Selma Chalk % Gas: 5% TX Proved reserves: 170 Bcfe % PDP: 45% % Gas: 99% 2012E Production: 13.5 Bcfe % PDP: 47% Avg. working interest: 82% 2012E Production: 5.1 Bcfe Avg. net revenue interest: 62% Haynesville Avg. working interest: 96% Operated wells: 60 Proved reserves: 147 Bcfe Avg. net revenue interest: 74% % Gas: 84% Operated wells: 568 % PDP: 24% Oil / Liquids 2012E Production: 2.8 Bcfe Avg. working interest: 76% Wet Gas Avg. net revenue interest: 59% Dry Gas Operated wells: 22Note: Based on 10/31/12 operational update 9
Eagle Ford Shale Premier Shale Oil & Liquids Play • 40,000 gross (≥31,800 net) acres in Volatile Oil Gonzales and Lavaca Counties, TX Condensate Gonzales Rich Gas – Operator in Gonzales with 83% WI – Operator in Lavaca with at least a 57% WI – Avg. IP/30-day rates of 1,001/657 BOEPD San Antonio – Gonzales type curve EUR of ~400 MBOE(1) Wilson Lavaca Bexar – Lavaca type curve of EUR of ~500 MBOE(1) – Initial Lavaca wells met/exceeded expectations Atascosa – 84% oil, 9% NGLs and 7% gas, post processing – Reduced proppant and chemical costs Karnes DeWitt – Significant initial choking thought to improve EURs Victoria – Initial positive down-spacing test of 3-well pad Goliad • Up to 282 remaining drilling locations – 60 wells producing – Includes 117 down-spaced locations McMullen Live Oak Bee Texas • Rigs, infrastructure in place – Dedicated rigs and frac crew Acreage Valuations – Recently increased from 2 to 3 rigs Have Increased – Gas gathering and processing in place Significantly in Recent EFS Transactions(1) Internally generated type curve based on production history of wells drilled to date by PVA; YE11 reserve report was prepared by Wright & Company, 10 Inc. and reflected a type curve EUR of 341 MBOE for Gonzales County based on the production history only for the wells completed through YE11.
Eagle Ford Shale Premier Acreage Position in Volatile Oil WindowNotable PVA Results IP Rates IP Rates IP Rates IP Rates IP Rates PVA Well Name (BOEPD) PVA Well Name (BOEPD) PVA Well Name (BOEPD) PVA Well Name (BOEPD) PVA Well Name (BOEPD) Gardner 1H 1,247 Hawn Holt 13H 1,399 Munson Ranch 6H 1,808 Henning 1H 1,115 Schacherl 1H (Lavaca) 1,277 Hawn Holt 9H 1,847 Hawn Holt 15H 1,298 Rock Creek Ranch 1H 1,257 Henning 2H 1,002 Rock Creek Ranch 10H 1,036 Hawn Holt 10H 1,188 Munson Ranch 1H 1,921 Schaefer 3H 1,129 Rock Creek Ranch 5H 969 Sralla 1H (Lavaca) 827 Hawn Holt 11H 1,190 Munson Ranch 3H 1,538 Munson Ranch 5H 1,164 Rock Creek Ranch 6H 960 McCreary 1H (Lavaca) 1,036 Hawn Holt 12H 1,495 Munson Ranch 4H 1,416 D. Foreman 1H 1,202 Effenberger 1H (Lavaca) 922 Leal 1H (Lavaca) 832 11Note: Wellhead rates (pre-processing); production “windows” are PVA’s approximation.
Eagle Ford ShaleDetailed Map of Primary Eagle Ford Shale Operating Area, With New Lavaca County Wells ETC PIPELINE Pavlicek #1H Vana #1H Cortez Gonzales Smith #1H County Schacherl #1H Effen- berger McCreary #1H #1H Cannonade Sralla Leal #1H Ranch #1H Matias #1H Shiner Rock Creek Ranch Lavaca County 0 10,000 FEET 12
Eagle Ford Shale Multi-Year Drilling Inventory• Due to acreage acquisitions and leasing efforts over the past two years, we have expanded our acreage position to 40,000 gross (31,800 net) acres primarily in the volatile oil window• We also have a multi-year inventory of up to 282 additional locations • Successful down-spacing testing has added 117 potential locations to our inventory • Locations will vary over time in terms of lateral length, frac stages, spacing and geology • Unitizations with other industry participants and continued leasing are expected to yield additional locations Producing Remaining Total Well Gross Net Acres / Area Wells Locations Locations Acreage Acreage Location Gonzales 51 188 239 24,330 20,454 102 Lavaca 9 94 103 15,670 11,328 152 Totals 60 282 342 40,000 31,782 117 13
Eagle Ford Shale Positive Trend: Volumes Up• During 2011 and into early 2012, we have quickly ramped up the Eagle Ford Shale• Approximately 93% of sales volumes are liquids - primarily crude oil• Oil is sold into the Gulf Coast LLS market through multiple purchasers–premium pricing to WTI 2011-2012 Net Quarterly Sales Volumes by Commodity (MBOE) 42 42 52 50 31 34 25 29 20 23 502 490 460 344 300 82 24 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Oil and Condensate NGLs Natural Gas 14
Compelling Economics & Value at Varying Costs and Oil PricesGonzales County Lavaca County(1) • Major assumptions • Major assumptions • ~400 MBOE EUR type curve (~1,000 BOEPD IP rate, • ~500 MBOE EUR type curve (~1,000 BOEPD IP rate, ~650 BOEPD 30-day avg.) ~670 BOEPD 30-day avg.) • Drilling and completion (D&C) costs of $7.0 - $8.0MM • Drilling and completion (D&C) costs of $8.5 - $9.5MM • Key takeaways • Key takeaways • BTAX PV-10 of $3.8 - $4.8MM per well assuming a flat • BTAX PV-10 of $4.7 - $5.7MM per well assuming a $85 per barrel NYMEX (WTI) oil price flat $85 per barrel NYMEX (WTI) oil price • BTAX PV-10 breakeven NYMEX oil pricing of $50 to • BTAX PV-10 breakeven NYMEX oil pricing of $51 to $57 per barrel $57 per barrel (1) Preliminary estimates of economics and EURs 15
Multi-Year Drilling Inventory PVA is Well-Positioned in a Number of Leading Oil & Gas Plays • Total inventory of up to 830 gross undrilled locations • Approximately 355 gross undrilled locations are economic at today’s commodity prices • Significant upside in inventory of “gassy” locations Gross Undrilled Average Working Gross EUR Play Locations Interest (Bcfe/Well)(1) Eagle Ford Shale 282 70% ~400-5001 Granite Wash 73 26% 3.7 Horizontal Cotton Valley 82 80% 4.9 Haynesville Shale 149 74% 5.0 Selma Chalk 94 96% 1.8 Marcellus Shale 150 79% 4.0 Totals 830(1) Eagle Ford EUR per well in MBOE. 16
Investment Highlights• Strategic balance between oil / liquids and natural gas• Strengthened balance sheet and liquidity• Core position in the volatile oil window of the Eagle Ford Shale• Multi-year inventory of attractive drilling opportunities• Optionality of natural gas assets has been retained• Ongoing growth in oil production and cash flow• Continued expansion of the Eagle Ford and other oily prospects 17