The New Downtown Revisited Shape of the New American City Eugenie L. Birch Lawrence C. Nussdorf Professor of Urban Researc...
The New Downtown Revisited <ul><li>Why downtown </li></ul><ul><li>National population and household trends </li></ul><ul><...
Context – why downtown <ul><li>Cities are important to the success of their respective  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>metropolitan...
U.S. population and household growth Source: U.S. Census. 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census; 2007 American Community Survey; ...
Sample City Population Changes Source: U.S. Census. 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census; 2007 American Community Survey 1 st  c...
City Growth – add people or grow boundaries Of the cities that grew by double digits in both periods, all annexed land dur...
In 2005, we categorized 45 downtowns Fully Developed Emerging On the edge of takeoff Slow-growing Declining Boston Atlanta...
2008  2000  2008  2000  2008  2000  Then we asked – how did they do in the next few years?   Full. Dev.   Emerging   On Ed...
Downtown Household changes: 1970-2010 Source: U.S. Census. 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census; 2007 American Community Survey;...
Changes to city topology Fully Developed Emerging On the edge of takeoff Slow-growing Declining Boston Atlanta Chattanooga...
Charlotte City Mecklenburg County North Carolina Charlotte, NC: Downtown Population & Households: 1970-2008 o  Downtown ac...
Cincinnati, OH: Downtown Population & Households: 1970-2008 o  Downtown accounts for less than 2% of Cincinnati’s househol...
Orlando, FL: Downtown Population & Households: 1970-2008 o  Downtown accounts for about 10% of Orlando’s households but gr...
9,000 TOD units expected in downtown: 4,700 are in construction
Population CCD  20,000  (+ 4,200) Population expanded  90,000 (+ 11,000) boundaries  Downtown BID area 5,700 (+ 2,200 ) Ex...
The New Downtown Revisited Shape of the New American City Eugenie Birch, University of Pennsylvania October 24, 2008
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

The New Downtown Revisited

615

Published on

Eugenie L. Birch's presentation for the Penn IUR conference

"Shape of the New American City"

Published in: Education
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
615
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • Key take-aways: - rustbelt cities of the northeast/midwest generally declined in both 1990-2000 and 2000-2008 Cities in the west almost universally grew in both periods, with the exception of SF, which declined in the latter period following the dot-com meltdown Cities in the South: no universal trend among these cities
  • Fully developed had positive growth rates for population and households from 1970-2000 because they grew in all three decades -- Emerging 21st century : positive but slow growth between 1970-2000 because of decline in 1970s, slow recovery in 1980s and fast trajectory in 1990s. On the edge : negative growth 1970-2000 because of double digit losses between 1970-1990; in 1990 positive (double digit) growth Slow growing: even more negative growth between 1970-2000 because of 2 decades of losses between 1970 and 1990 and a much lower (9%) increase in 1990s Declining negative growth between 1970-2000 unrelieved by any positive returns in the 1990s.
  • Downtown households are trending upwards overall From a regional perspective: After significant decline between 1970 and 1990, the sample cities in the South have collectively almost tripled their downtown household growth rate The sample cities in the Northeast have dropped from a double digit downtown household growth rate in the 90s to single digit downtown household growth rate in the new millennium After declining by more than 18% in the 80s, the sample cities in the West have experienced more than a 30% increase in downtown household growth rate. With their rapid downtown household growth rates, the sample cities in the South and West are likely to have been most adversely affected by the recent housing market crisis The Northeast, based on the sample cities, is the only region not to have dropped below its 1970 downtown household level in the past 30+ years. All the regions have experienced positive downtown household growth since the 90s.
  • Transcript of "The New Downtown Revisited"

    1. 1. The New Downtown Revisited Shape of the New American City Eugenie L. Birch Lawrence C. Nussdorf Professor of Urban Research and Education Department of City and Regional Planning Co-Director, Penn Institute for Urban Research University of Pennsylvania October 24, 2008
    2. 2. The New Downtown Revisited <ul><li>Why downtown </li></ul><ul><li>National population and household trends </li></ul><ul><li>A framework for downtowns </li></ul><ul><li>Regions and cities population trends </li></ul><ul><li>Downtowns </li></ul>
    3. 3. Context – why downtown <ul><li>Cities are important to the success of their respective </li></ul><ul><ul><li>metropolitan regions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Vibrant downtowns are also important to the success of their </li></ul><ul><ul><li>respective cities. Not the least because of their being the symbolic center. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Today’s downtowns are changing in function and character. </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>Some are more successful at achieving this change than others </li></ul><ul><li>Change where occurring is taking place at varying rates </li></ul><ul><li>Last look based on 2000 data – it’s ten years later: What has </li></ul><ul><li>happened? </li></ul>
    4. 4. U.S. population and household growth Source: U.S. Census. 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census; 2007 American Community Survey; 2010 population projection Overall US population growth rate slowing from 40 year peak in 1990-2000; Household growth rate slowing more substantially from 1970-1980 peak; household growth now paralleling population growth, indicating “stability” of household configurations 2000-2010
    5. 5. Sample City Population Changes Source: U.S. Census. 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census; 2007 American Community Survey 1 st column is 1990-2000; 2 nd column is 2000-2007 Red = South Blue = West Grey = Northeast Green = Midwest
    6. 6. City Growth – add people or grow boundaries Of the cities that grew by double digits in both periods, all annexed land during those periods These cities have downtown populations of under 10,000 (Average: 4,500) City 1990-2000 2000-2008 Land Annexation Boise 47.8% 9.6% Austin 41.0 14.2 YES Mesa 37.6 21.0 YES Charlotte 36.6 24.9 YES Phoenix 34.3 14.6 YES Colorado Springs 28.4 7.9 San Antonio 22.3 12.2 YES Portland 21.0 4.1 Houston 19.8 4.8 Denver 18.6 6.1 Dallas 18.0 4.3 Lafayette 16.8 3.8 Albuquerque 16.0 14.1 YES City 1990-2000 2000-2008 Land Annexation Lexington 15.6% 7.1% Salt Lake City 13.6 4.0 Orlando 12.9 20.4 YES Columbus, OH 12.4 3.0 San Diego 10.2 4.4 Seattle 9.1 2.5 Indianapolis 6.9 1.4 Los Angeles 6.0 3.0 Atlanta 5.7 3.9 Columbus, GA 4.0 0.7 Manhattan, NY 3.3 5.4 Boston 2.6 4.1 Chattanooga 2.0 3.7
    7. 7. In 2005, we categorized 45 downtowns Fully Developed Emerging On the edge of takeoff Slow-growing Declining Boston Atlanta Chattanooga Albuquerque Cincinnati Chicago Baltimore Dallas Austin Columbus, GA Lower Manhattan Charlotte Miami Boise Des Moines Midtown Manhattan Cleveland Milwaukee Colorado Springs Detroit Philadelphia Denver Washington, D.C. Columbus, OH Jackson Los Angeles Indianapolis Lexington Memphis Lafayette Mesa New Orleans Phoenix Minneapolis Norfolk Pittsburgh Orlando Portland Salt Lake City San Antonio San Diego Shreveport San Francisco St. Louis Seattle
    8. 8. 2008 2000 2008 2000 2008 2000 Then we asked – how did they do in the next few years?   Full. Dev.   Emerging   On Edge   Slow Grow   Declining   BOSTON     CHICAGO     NYC DOWNTOWN     NYC MIDTOWN     PHILADELPHIA     ATLANTA     BALTIMORE     CHARLOTTE     CLEVELAND     DENVER     LOS ANGELES     MEMPHIS     NEW ORLEANS     NORFOLK     PORTLAND     SAN DIEGO     SAN FRANCISCO     SEATTLE     CHATTANOOGA     DALLAS     MIAMI     MILWAUKEE     WASHINGTON DC     ALBUQUERQUE     AUSTIN     BOISE     COLORADO SPRINGS     COLUMBUS, OH     INDIANAPOLIS     LAFAYETTE     PHOENIX     PITTSBURGH     SALT LAKE CITY     CINCINNATI     COLUMBUS, GA     DES MOINES     DETROIT     LEXINGTON     MESA     MINNEAPOLIS     ORLANDO     SAN ANTONIO     SHREVEPORT     ST LOUIS  
    9. 9. Downtown Household changes: 1970-2010 Source: U.S. Census. 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census; 2007 American Community Survey; 2010 population projection 2010 10.3% 2.9% 10.3% 7.6% -18.8% -10.3% 15.7% 29.5% -5.5% -7.6% 5.8% 8.4% -10.6% 1.1% 34.5% 36.1%
    10. 10. Changes to city topology Fully Developed Emerging On the edge of takeoff Slow-growing Declining Boston Atlanta Chattanooga Albuquerque Cincinnati Chicago Baltimore Dallas Austin Columbus, GA Lower Manhattan Charlotte Miami Boise Des Moines Midtown Manhattan Cleveland Milwaukee Colorado Springs Detroit Philadelphia Denver Washington, D.C. Columbus, OH Jackson Los Angeles Indianapolis Lexington Memphis Lafayette Mesa New Orleans Phoenix Minneapolis Norfolk Pittsburgh Orlando Portland Salt Lake City San Antonio San Diego Shreveport San Francisco St. Louis Seattle
    11. 11. Charlotte City Mecklenburg County North Carolina Charlotte, NC: Downtown Population & Households: 1970-2008 o Downtown accounts for less than 2% of Charlotte’s households but grew by 70% between 2000-2008. The city grew by 28.4% in households . o Center city is undergoing major redevelopment in entertainment, residential units (12 proposed high-rise residential towers), and recreation . o Household losses are occurring outside downtown in the East part of Charlotte due to redevelopment of previous residential buildings. 79.8% of city households are single person. Average downtown household size is 1.6 . Downtown tracts median household income from $10,960 to $52,686
    12. 12. Cincinnati, OH: Downtown Population & Households: 1970-2008 o Downtown accounts for less than 2% of Cincinnati’s households but grew by 10% between 2000 and 2008. The city lost 13.6% in households. o $ 4 billion in investments have been completed in 2008 in the greater Cincinnati downtown area o In the past three years the 3CDC has invested more than $70 million in the revitalization of Over-the-Rhine that includes condo development and other residential, commercial, and park projects. 85.9% of city households are single person. Average downtown household size is 1.2 Downtown tracts: median household income $21,578 to $46,783 Cincinnati City Hamilton County Ohio
    13. 13. Orlando, FL: Downtown Population & Households: 1970-2008 o Downtown accounts for about 10% of Orlando’s households but grew by 20% between 2000 and 2008. The city grew by 12.9% in households. o Projects amounting to $371.9 million in investments were completed in downtown Orlando in 2007. . o Land annexation is increasing the physical size of Orlando. A few tracts outside the downtown area are increasing households at a faster rate. 74.7% of city households are single person. Average downtown household size is 1.8 Downtown tracts median household income 11,995 to $59,186 Orlando City, Orange County, Florida
    14. 14. 9,000 TOD units expected in downtown: 4,700 are in construction
    15. 15.
    16. 16. Population CCD 20,000 (+ 4,200) Population expanded 90,000 (+ 11,000) boundaries Downtown BID area 5,700 (+ 2,200 ) Extended area 27, 400 ( + 8,000) Spillover effects
    17. 17. The New Downtown Revisited Shape of the New American City Eugenie Birch, University of Pennsylvania October 24, 2008

    ×