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Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment
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Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment

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Rae Zimmerman's presentation for the Penn IUR conference …

Rae Zimmerman's presentation for the Penn IUR conference

"The Shape of the New American City"

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  • 1.  
  • 2. Making Infrastructure Competitive in a Changing World through Investment Rae Zimmerman Professor of Planning and Public Administration Presentation for “The Shape of the New American City” October 24, 2008 Philadelphia, PA
  • 3. I. Introduction <ul><li>Public spending patterns for infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Private funding initiatives </li></ul><ul><li>Scope of paper </li></ul>
  • 4. A. Public spending patterns for infrastructure <ul><li>Expenditure by type of infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure spending vs. total spending (Federal government) </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure spending as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) </li></ul><ul><li>Public (government) vs. private expenditures </li></ul><ul><li>Tradeoff between federal & state/local infrastructure expenditures </li></ul><ul><li>Capital vs. operation expenditures </li></ul>
  • 5. Investment Trends by Type of Infrastructure Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office, “Trends in Public Spending on Transportation and Water Infrastructure, 1956-2004,” Washington, DC: US CBO, August 2007. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/85xx/doc8517/08-08-Infrastructure.pdf
  • 6. Infrastructure spending vs. total spending (Federal government) Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office, “Trends in Public Spending on Transportation and Water Infrastructure, 1956-2004,” Washington, DC: US CBO, August 2007. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/85xx/doc8517/08-08-Infrastructure.pdf
  • 7. Infrastructure spending as a share of GDP (public vs. private)
  • 8. Tradeoff between Federal and State/Local Spending Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office, “Trends in Public Spending on Transportation and Water Infrastructure, 1956-2004,” Washington, DC: US CBO, August 2007. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/85xx/doc8517/08-08-Infrastructure.pdf
  • 9. Capital vs. Operation and Maintenance Expenditures (public) Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office, “Trends in Public Spending on Transportation and Water Infrastructure, 1956-2004,” Washington, DC: US CBO, August 2007. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/85xx/doc8517/08-08-Infrastructure.pdf
  • 10. B. Private vs. Public Spending <ul><li>Some statewide initiatives: NYS panel on private financing opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>Recent private financing of construction projects </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Midway Airport </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chicago Skyway </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Indiana Toll Road </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Advertising and marketing expenses </li></ul>
  • 11. C. Scope of Paper <ul><li>Key Factors Influencing Infrastructure Investment </li></ul><ul><li>Innovations to Facilitate Investment and Observations Relevant to Financing Such Innovations </li></ul>
  • 12. II. Factors Influencing Infrastructure Investment <ul><li>Multiple goals </li></ul><ul><li>Flexibility </li></ul><ul><li>Interdependencies </li></ul><ul><li>Management interventions </li></ul><ul><li>Regulatory levels </li></ul>
  • 13. A. Multiple Goals: Infrastructure is Called Upon to Address Many Challenges <ul><li>Resource constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Natural hazards </li></ul><ul><li>Global climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Security </li></ul><ul><li>Safety </li></ul><ul><li>State of Good Repair </li></ul>
  • 14. (1) Resource constraints <ul><li>Resources drawn from longer and longer distances </li></ul><ul><li>Consistent increases in the use of resources in the provision of infrastructure services </li></ul>
  • 15. (2) Natural Disasters Source: Graphed by NYU-Wagner/ICIS from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) data
  • 16. Natural Hazards: Estimated Inundated Areas for a Category 3 Hurricane, NYC Source: http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/161139main_hurricanes_nyc_lg.jpg
  • 17. Natural hazards: impacts on infrastructure <ul><li>Steady increase in federally declared major natural disasters </li></ul><ul><li>Two thirds originate from severe storms </li></ul><ul><li>Many of these catastrophes seriously impair and disable vital infrastructure </li></ul>
  • 18. School buses flooded during Hurricane Katrina T. Litman (September 20, 2005) “Lessons From Katrina and Rita: What Major Disasters Can Teach Transportation Planners” Victoria, BC: Victoria Transport Policy Institute, p. 5.
  • 19. Hurricane Rita: Traffic congestion during evacuation T. Litman (September 20, 2005) “Lessons From Katrina and Rita: What Major Disasters Can Teach Transportation Planners” Victoria, BC: Victoria Transport Policy Institute, p. 8.
  • 20. Earthquake Damage to Infrastructure: Rail Lines Damage to Railway by April 29, 1965, Seattle, Washington Earthquake (NOAA)
  • 21. Earthquake Damage to Infrastructure: Roadways Collapse of Freeway in 1989 Loma Prieta, CA Earthquake (NOAA)
  • 22. Earthquake Damage to Infrastructure: Bridges Collapsed Bridge after June 16, 1964 Earthquake in Niigata, Japan (NOAA)
  • 23. (3) Global climate change: variability in emission reduction targets Source: Resources for the Future
  • 24. Effects of Global Climate Change on Transportation Facilities: Areas Vulnerable to Flooding Estimated for GCC-Related Sea Level Rise, New York Metro Area Source: V. Gornitz NASA/GISS/C.U.
  • 25. (4) Security: Infrastructure is a Proven Target of Terrorism or Sabotage - Electric Power <ul><li>Domestic attacks on power plants: “70 percent of energy and power companies experienced at least one severe cyber attack.” ( U.S. GAO 2004: 12) </li></ul><ul><li>Transmission Towers: Vandalism occurred in October 2004, when two bolts were removed from a transmission tower in Milwaukee, WI disrupting power and rail service when the tower fell on to the lines ( USA Today 10/12/04). </li></ul><ul><li>Crude oil and gas pipelines: Between June 2003-September 2004, in Iraq, over one hundred attacks on oil and gas pipelines were reported. </li></ul>
  • 26. Proven Targets of Terrorism or Sabotage: Transit and Water <ul><li>TRANSIT </li></ul><ul><li>1900s: Hundreds of Subway Attacks Outside U.S. (Mineta Institute) </li></ul><ul><li>1995: Tokyo Sarin Gas on 3 Separate Lines </li></ul><ul><li>1995: Paris Subway Car Bombings - St. Michel-Notre Dame Station </li></ul><ul><li>1995: Derailment of Amtrak’s Sunset Limited (AZ) (vandalism) </li></ul><ul><li>2001: Destruction of Lower Manhattan Subway Lines (WTC) </li></ul><ul><li>2004: Madrid Subway Bombings </li></ul><ul><li>WATER </li></ul><ul><li>2003: Break-ins at water systems in 5 states and Canada </li></ul><ul><li>Poisoning threats in Turkey, Germany and Malta </li></ul><ul><li>Source: R. Zimmerman, “Water” in R. Zimmerman and T. Horan, eds. Digital Infrastructures (Routledge 2004). </li></ul>
  • 27. Trends in International Terrorist Attacks on Oil & Gas Source: Simonoff et al. I3P Research Report; no. 2 (Nov. 2005) &quot;Trends for Oil and Gas Terrorist Attacks.&quot;
  • 28. (5) Safety <ul><li>Electric power outages </li></ul><ul><li>Water distribution line breakages </li></ul><ul><li>Oil and gas distribution line breakages </li></ul><ul><li>Bridge collapses (design, construction, operations and maintenance) </li></ul><ul><li>Other (e.g., steam pipes) </li></ul><ul><li>Roadway (Vehicular) Accidents </li></ul>
  • 29. Electric Outages and Duration by Season (1990-2004) (DAWG Database) Note: The counts of incidents per season are modeled using a negative binomial regression model, which accounts for unmodeled heterogeneity in the data. The model implies an estimated 13.8% annual increase in incident rate, and an estimated 75-135% higher rate for summer than for other seasons. The curve is a loess nonparametric regression estimate for average duration. Key : The winter points and line are in blue, the spring points and line are in green, the summer points and line are in red, and the autumn points and line are in orange. Produced by Professor Jeffrey S. Simonoff, NYU-Stern For the NYU-CREATE project.
  • 30. Restoration and Recovery of Electricity and Oil and Gas Pipelines: Gulf Coast Hurricanes, 2005 Source: U.S. DOE, Office of Energy Delivery and Reliability Source: Graphed by NYU-Wagner from Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) (2005) Hurricane Situation Reports 9/22 - 10/6, U.S. DOE <http://www.electricity.doe.gov/program/electric_oa4.cfm?section=divisions&level2=home> (accessed October 25, 2005).
  • 31. Physical Condition of Infrastructure America’s Infrastructure GPA      D   Total investment needs $1.6 trillion (estimated 5 year need) Aviation D+ Bridges  C Dams D Drinking Water D- Energy D Hazardous Waste D Navigable Waterways  D- Public Parks & Recreation C- Rail  C- Roads D Schools D Security  I Solid Waste C+ Transit  D+ Wastewater D-   Source: ASCE (2005) “2005 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure,” Online. Available at: <http://www.asce.org/reportcard/2005/index.cfm> (accessed November 7, 2005). (6) State of Good Repair
  • 32. B. Flexibility <ul><li>Alternative routes </li></ul><ul><li>Alternative ways of providing services </li></ul><ul><li>Alternative ways of using services </li></ul>
  • 33. <ul><li>WATER </li></ul>C. Interdependencies: System Interconnectedness (Macro and Micro Effects) ENERGY TRANSPORTATION TELECOMMUNICATIONS
  • 34.  
  • 35. Interdependencies and Vulnerability: Example : Water main break – Street collapse – Gas line destruction Water main break, NYC, 1998 – Photos courtesy of NYC Department of Environmental Protection.
  • 36. D. Management Interventions: Case of A Bridge Collapse – Mianus Bridge, CT <ul><li> 1950s 1960s-70s 1980s </li></ul><ul><li>Design Non-redundant Drainage ditches </li></ul><ul><li>pin and hangar not designed to </li></ul><ul><li>assembly prevent blockage </li></ul><ul><li>Pin thickness </li></ul><ul><li>debated </li></ul><ul><li>Construction Pin cap less than </li></ul><ul><li>recommended </li></ul><ul><li>Operations Traffic above design </li></ul><ul><li> capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Maintenance Drains Deck in Rusting of </li></ul><ul><li>blocked Disrepair steel parts </li></ul><ul><li>Pin rusting Pin failure </li></ul><ul><li> Bridge collapse </li></ul>
  • 37. III. Introducing Innovation <ul><li>New ways of providing services to meet multiple objectives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transportation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Observations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Initial price increases as new technologies adapt to serving more people </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Initial price instability is likely as new technologies are introduced – historically this typically happens </li></ul></ul>
  • 38. New Ideas: Energy Source: Bob Staake, “Bright Idea,” The New Yorker, July 2, 2007, Cover.
  • 39. Wind Power: U.S. Installed Capacity (Megawatts) 1981-2007 Source: American Wind Energy Association. http://www.awea.org/faq/instcap.html
  • 40. New Ideas: Transportation Source: The New Yorker, Cover, July 24, 2000.
  • 41. New Ideas: Water Source: The Who Zoo, The Horned Lizardhttp://whozoo.org/AnlifeSS2001/natdavid/NGD_HornedLizard.htm Source: American Museum of Natural History, Like Water Off a Beetle's Back, Illustration by Roberto Osti http://www.biomechanics.bio.uci.edu/_html/nh_biomech/namib/beetle.htm
  • 42. Observations: Initial price increases as new technologies adapt to serving more people
  • 43. Initial Price Instability at the Outset of Introducing a New Technology New technologies Conventional technologies
  • 44.  

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