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Spatiotemporal Assessment of Disaster-risk Potential

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  • 1. A 30-year Qualitative Multi-hazard Assessment to Determine at-Risk Coastal Areas in the Philippines Pedcris M. Orencio1 and Masahiko Fujii2 1Graduate 2Faculty School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Japan, p.orencio@frontier.hokudai.ac.jp of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Japan
  • 2. Natural Hazards Natural events from physical or environmental processes a. Plate movements b. Sea surface temperature Source: IRIS Source: Sompotan 2007
  • 3. Natural Disasters 2011 Worldwide Catastrophes Source: Munich Reinsurance Co. 2011
  • 4. Hazards and Disasters in the Philippines Ranked as No.1 disaster-stricken country in the world in 2009 by the Center for Research and Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) A total of 191 disasters, killed 903 persons, and affected more than 2.8M families (Citizen’s Disaster and Response Center) Source: CDRC Source: CDRC
  • 5. In the Philippines, >80% are coastal provinces that benefit from coastal resources  60% of 87M population is in the coastal areas (in 2005)  Provides 43% of per capita protein needs  Employs 1M people in the coastal rural areas Very High High Moderate Low Very Low
  • 6. Determining Disaster Risks International Strategy for Disaster Risk (ISDR) Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability International Union of Geological Science (IUGS) Risk = Probability x Impact
  • 7. Use of EMDAT (1982-2011) in Risk Assessment Source: EMDAT: OFDA/CRED- UCL
  • 8. Hazard Characterization A process that can be stand alone or part of a risk assessment * *Except for biological disaster events
  • 9. Hazard Events at Provincial Scale Provincial Hazard Event Score (H) : • Meteorological hazards affects most • Climatological are prominent in the north while, Hydrological are most common in the south • Geophysical and Biological are sparsely distributed across the country
  • 10. Probability Estimation Probability (P) is the likelihood of events occurring within a given period of time • Meteorological in most probable hazard in north • Climatological in north and south while, Hydrological only in the south • Biological occur in contiguous urbanized areas (i.e. GMA) • Geophysical is the least probable among hazards
  • 11. Impact Estimation Impact is consequence of the events in the context of affected human population • Areas in the north have high cost from Meteorological, Climatological and Hydrological hazards • Areas that are impacted by Geophysical are generally high Reason? Source: Yumul et al. 2011
  • 12. Disaster Risk Potential at Provincial Scale Provincial Risk Potential Score (RP) : Unit of Risk = per Capita Cost of Hazard event for 30 year period • Areas in the north are at high risk from Meteorological and Climatological (though some areas in south are also at-risk from this hazard) • Areas in the south are at high risk from Hydrological • There is less risk from Geophysical because of low probability of occurrence
  • 13. Provinces with Most Hazard Occurrences Provinces M C G B Metropolitan Manila Pangasinan Ilocos Sur Catanduanes Davao del Norte Davao Oriental Albay Sorsogon Pampanga South Cotabato Combined (PH) : M- Meteorological C- Climatological G- Geophysical B- Biological H- Hydrological H All
  • 14. Provinces with Highest Hazard Risk Potential Provinces M C G B H All **Batanes Aurora **Catanduanes **Camiguin *Quirino *Kalinga Surigao del Sur Compostela Valley **Dinagat Islands Zambales Overall RP (ORP): *Land-lock provinces **Coastal islands M- Meteorological C- Climatological G- Geophysical B- Biological H- Hydrological
  • 15. Risk Quadrant High Metro Manila Pampanga Albay Leyte Sorsogon Cagayan Tarlac Isabela Zambales Quezon Aurora High Low Probability Catanduanes Compostela Valley Low Risk Low Kalinga Quirino Abra Dinagat Islands Impact Mt. Province Camiguin Batanes Biliran High Agusan del Norte Agusan del Sur Aklan Antique Eastern Samar Lanao del Norte Maguindanao Marinduque Misamis Occidental Northern Samar Romblon Samar Surigao del Norte Surigao del Sur Guimaras Siquijor Sulu
  • 16. Implications of Risks Per capita cost is higher in densely-populated areas
  • 17. Implications of Risks >80% of provinces at-risk have agricultural-based economy
  • 18. Implications of Risks Provinces with (mismanaged?) forest, forest reserves or watershed areas are more prone to disasters
  • 19. Summary and Next Steps  Cost per capita could serve as indicator for individual response burden for lack of government resources for disasters  Aurora is the most at-risk coastal province in the Philippines based on a multi-hazard risk assessment based on probability and impact of natural hazard events  Hazards are characterized based on individual scores of five key hazard components taken from a 30-year information from International Disaster Database (EMDAT of the CRED/OFDA/ UCL)  Validation of results through a case study • Amplification of risks from multiple hazards (e.g. disaster chains; STORMS- LANDSLIDE- FLOODING - EPIDEMICS) • Measure impacts in terms of implications on cost (i.e. recovery, loss capital and economy)  Devise risk communication strategies to achieve concrete risk mitigation plans • Importance of integration of risk in local planning cycle
  • 20. “The view that disasters are temporary disruptions to be managed only by humanitarian response, or that their impacts will be reduced by technical interventions has been replaced by the recognition that they are intimately linked with sustainable development activities in the social, economic and environmental fields. So-called “natural disasters” are increasingly regarded as one of the many risks that people face.” UNISDR 2004 Thank you very much! This presentation is supported by the Global COE Program, “Establishment of Center for Integrated Field Environmental Science,” Ministry of Education, Culture, Science, Sports and Technology (MEXT), Japan.