Kenneth Goldstein - Fundamental Factors and the 2010 Election

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Kenneth Goldstein - Fundamental Factors and the 2010 Election

  1. 1. Campaign 2010 Briefing Ken Goldstein October 28, 2010
  2. 2. 5 days5 days until November 2nd 2010 General Election -----------------------------------------
  3. 3. “It would be significant if Scott Brown got over 40 percent of the vote” December 25, 2009 from a major DC based pundit “It would be significant if Scott Brown got over 40 percent of the vote” December 25, 2009 from a major DC based pundit
  4. 4. Lots of Drama but Fundamentals Drive Outcomes THE FUNDAMENTALS – Party Identification and the Nature of the Times 1. Turnout 2. Loyalty 3. Independent Votes
  5. 5. US: Party ID by Vote for President in 2008 National Exit Poll
  6. 6. 2010 Elections National Trends and local factors influence 1. Turnout 2. Loyalty 3. Independent Votes Individual Races • US House - 435 seats • US Senate – 36 Seats • Governorships – 37 states • State Legislatures
  7. 7. Incumbent Party Historical Trends in Midterm Elections This is invisible Year Senate House 1982 +1 -26 1986 -8 -5 1990 -1 -8 1994 -9 -54 1998 0 +4 2002 +2 +2 2006 -6 -30
  8. 8. US: Party ID All Adults http://sas- origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces /Production/Cms/POLL/b8scyp6bruqgez4snjxqdg.gif
  9. 9. PARTY ID BY LIKELY VOTERS Democracy Corps Survey
  10. 10. Independent voters in three recent contests Race Democrat Republican Virginia Gov. (McDonnell-R v. Deeds-D) 33% 66% New Jersey Gov. (Christie-R v. Corzine-D) 30% 60% Massachusetts Sen. (Brown-R v. Coakley-D) 32% 61% 10 •Buoyed by independents Obama was the 1st DEM to win VA since 1964 •Chritie is 1st GOP Governor in NJ in 12 years •Brown is 1st Republican to win a Mass. Senate seat since 1972
  11. 11. Wisconsin Party Identification Refocus Wisconsin Study
  12. 12. http://www.pollster
  13. 13. US: Right Direction v. Wrong Track
  14. 14. US: Generic House
  15. 15. United States House of Representatives GOP Needs 39 for Control of House This is invisible •91 Toss-up or Lean Seats currently held by Democrats •9 Toss-up or Lean Seats currently held by Republicans
  16. 16. Battle for the US House 16 Real Clear Politics on this map is projecting based on current polling that Democrats have 179 seats, Republicans have 213 seats and 43 toss- up seats will determine control. 218 seats are needed for a majority.
  17. 17. Battle for the US Senate 17 Real Clear Politics on this map is projecting based on current polling that Democrats have 48 seats, Republicans have 45 seats and 7 toss-up seats will determine control. Republicans need 51 seats for control/Democrats need 50 with VP Biden breaking the tie.
  18. 18. The Spin Republicans say…. Open your eyes 1Enthusiasm gap 2Economy still sputtering 3Wrong track 4Independents breaking GOP Democrats were saying ……remain calm 1Party id advantage 2Health care got done 3Turn to Wall Street 4Economy will start to turn 5NY 23 6Will be well resourced and outspend Republican Now saying – get to run against Republicans…….
  19. 19. Does blocking and tackling matter this year? National v. Local

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