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Kenneth Goldstein - Fundamental Factors and the 2010 Election

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Kenneth Goldstein - Fundamental Factors and the 2010 Election Kenneth Goldstein - Fundamental Factors and the 2010 Election Presentation Transcript

  • Campaign 2010 Briefing Ken Goldstein October 28, 2010
  • 5 days until November 2 nd 2010 General Election -----------------------------------------
  • “ It would be significant if Scott Brown got over 40 percent of the vote” December 25, 2009 from a major DC based pundit
    • THE FUNDAMENTALS – Party Identification and the Nature of the Times
        • Turnout
        • Loyalty
        • Independent Votes
    Lots of Drama but Fundamentals Drive Outcomes
  • US: Party ID by Vote for President in 2008 National Exit Poll
    • National Trends and local factors influence
      • Turnout
      • Loyalty
      • Independent Votes
    • Individual Races
      • US House - 435 seats
      • US Senate – 36 Seats
      • Governorships – 37 states
      • State Legislatures
    2010 Elections
  • Incumbent Party Historical Trends in Midterm Elections This is invisible Year Senate House 1982 +1 -26 1986 -8 -5 1990 -1 -8 1994 -9 -54 1998 0 +4 2002 +2 +2 2006 -6 -30
  • US: Party ID All Adults http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/b8scyp6bruqgez4snjxqdg.gif
  • PARTY ID BY LIKELY VOTERS Democracy Corps Survey
  • Independent voters in three recent contests
    • Buoyed by independents Obama was the 1 st DEM to win VA since 1964
    • Chritie is 1 st GOP Governor in NJ in 12 years
    • Brown is 1 st Republican to win a Mass. Senate seat since 1972
    Race Democrat Republican Virginia Gov. (McDonnell-R v. Deeds-D) 33% 66% New Jersey Gov. (Christie-R v. Corzine-D) 30% 60% Massachusetts Sen. (Brown-R v. Coakley-D) 32% 61%
  • Wisconsin Party Identification Refocus Wisconsin Study
  • http://www.pollster
  • US: Right Direction v. Wrong Track
  • US: Generic House
  • United States House of Representatives GOP Needs 39 for Control of House This is invisible
    • 91 Toss-up or Lean Seats currently held by Democrats
    • 9 Toss-up or Lean Seats currently held by Republicans
  • Battle for the US House Real Clear Politics on this map is projecting based on current polling that Democrats have 179 seats , Republicans have 213 seats and 43 toss-up seats will determine control. 218 seats are needed for a majority.
  • Battle for the US Senate Real Clear Politics on this map is projecting based on current polling that Democrats have 48 seats , Republicans have 45 seats and 7 toss-up seats will determine control. Republicans need 51 seats for control/Democrats need 50 with VP Biden breaking the tie.
  • The Spin
    • Republicans say…. Open your eyes
    • Enthusiasm gap
    • Economy still sputtering
    • Wrong track
    • Independents breaking GOP
    • Democrats were saying ……remain calm
    • Party id advantage
    • Health care got done
    • Turn to Wall Street
    • Economy will start to turn
    • NY 23
    • Will be well resourced and outspend Republican
    • Now saying – get to run against Republicans…….
  •  
  • Does blocking and tackling matter this year? National v. Local