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Mapping the evolution of renewable resources and their relation with EROI and energy policies

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Díaz, P., Miao, B., Masó, J. (2013). Mapping the evolution of renewable resources and their relation with EROI and energy policies. In proceedings of the International Symposium on Remote Sensing of …

Díaz, P., Miao, B., Masó, J. (2013). Mapping the evolution of renewable resources and their relation with EROI and energy policies. In proceedings of the International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment (ISRSE35), Beijing, April 2013.

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  • It is quite interesting scientific stuff. A multidisciplinary research that connects policies, economics and GIS. It has added to my knowledge.
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  • 1. P Díaz13, B Miao1 and J Masó2P Díaz13, B Miao1 and J Masó2 1 Department of Asian and International Studies, City University of Hong 2CREAF, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona 3 This research was supported by City University of Hong Kong research grant (52739560). 35 International Symposium on Remote Sensing of the Environment, Beijing, 26 April 2013
  • 2. Evolution of renewable production General overview. Evolution of renewables last 6 years Focus on China Renewable energy policies in ChinaRenewable energy policies in China Weaknesses Optimal locations for the establishment of installations for renewables. Energy Return on Investment EROI. Conclusions
  • 3. The global share of renewable energy could increase from the current 17% to between 30% and 75%, and even 90% by 2050. Hydropower, biofuels and renewables production increased in 2011. Disparities in new renewables energy production data:Disparities in new renewables energy production data: BP (2012) says 2.1% REN21 (2012) says 4.9% Nevertheless, there is a general consensus on the rapid grow they are experiencing worldwide. New renewables power generation increased at an above average rate (17.7%): High increase in wind (25.8%), High increase in solar power energy (86.3%). ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013
  • 4. Based on gross generation from renewable sources including wind, geothermal, solar, biomass and waste, and not accounting for cross border electricity supply. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. June, 2012
  • 5. Based on gross generation from renewable sources including wind, geothermal, solar, biomass and waste, and not accounting for cross border electricity supply. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. June, 2012
  • 6. 3.6 6.9 11.9 17.7 5 10 15 20Milliontonnesoilequivalent(Mtoe) China'snew renewablesconsumption China has multiplied by 12 the consumption of new renewables (9.1% of the global total) In 2010 accounted for 44% of the global market of wind source. In 2011 it led the production of four renewable energy sources: Biomass, solar thermal systems, wind and geothermal 1.4 1.8 3.6 -5 0 5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Milliontonnesoilequivalent(Mtoe) ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013
  • 7. 90’s China’s energy consumption growth was four times greater than predicted ( 3-4% Chinese government and IEA). China did not meet its targets on non-fossil energy consumption in the 11th Five-year Plan (2006-2010). China set new targets in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015):China set new targets in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015): 11.4% of the total primary energy consumption. Renewables installed capacity will increase to 30% Great increase in renewable energy consumption in 2011 with respect to 2010: 48.4%. Governance: It has produced 28 environmental laws since 1979. Electricity Law (1995), Energy Conservation Law (1997), Air Pollution Prevention Law (2000). ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013
  • 8. In 2005 the Law of Renewable Energy was passed. In 2009, a total of five sets of supporting laws were enacted: Guidance and Content for the Development of Renewable Energy Industry,Energy Industry, Temporary Method for Managing the Special Capital of Renewable Energy Development, Temporary Management for the Price and Cost Sharing in Renewable Energy Power Generation, Administrative Regulations on Renewable Energy Power Generation, Mid- and Long-Term Development Programming for Renewable Energy. ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013
  • 9. Central governance strategies: Five-Year Plans. The 6th Five-Year Plan (1985) is the first that specified a reduction in energy consumption. The 10th Five-Year Plan is the first plan directly dedicated to new and renewable energy.to new and renewable energy. It specifies an annual utilization of new and renewable energy of 13 million tce (excluding small hydro and biomass). ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013
  • 10. The 11th Five-Year Development Plan for New Energy and Renewable Energy (2006-2010). Annual utilization of renewable energy: 300 million tce, The most ambitious energy consumption reductions: 20% of energy per unit of GDP,of energy per unit of GDP, The 12th Five-Year Plan calls for more savings on energy efficiency and energy intensity reduction, but with no specific target. Reduction of 16% of energy per unit of GDP, due to the difficulties on meeting the former target. ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013
  • 11. Too many bodies are involved in renewables management. There is a lack of coordination and consistency amongst regulations. Unequal spatial distribution of renewable investment. E.g. wind farms are concentrated in the north, producing 73.2%, butE.g. wind farms are concentrated in the north, producing 73.2%, but between 38-57.2% is lost in transmission Disparities between local and central government priorities. Although China has ranked top in terms of investment on renewable energy; a very small amount is spent on technical research and development. Investment in renewable energy accounted for only 0.045% of the total GDP, while EU member countries’ investment accounted for 2%. ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013
  • 12. The efficiency of renewables depends on the location and the infrastructure. Challenge: Is to define the areas where it is technically and economically feasible to develop renewable energy installations.installations. The locations where it is easy to install renewable farms become fewer over time. The optimal distribution should consider: The various kinds of technology (different efficiency) for renewable sources, The costs of the initial installation, The costs of energy interconnection. ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013
  • 13. Natural constraints Characteristics of the topography: Lands with slopes>20% are excluded. Natural variables (wind, sun, etc.). Conflict with other activities such as agriculture or NaturalConflict with other activities such as agriculture or Natural Parks. Infrastructural constraints Lack of infrastructure (roads for accessing of cranes). Presence of buildings and the ownership of land (private/public). Lack of networks for transmission of the energy produced. ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013
  • 14. Energy return on investment (EROI) compares the energy returned for a certain source and the energy used to get it (explore, find, develop, produce, extract, transform, harvest, grow, process, etc.). It shows a general decrease of efficiency for fossil fuels andIt shows a general decrease of efficiency for fossil fuels and gas. Results on the real energy return for renewables are sometimes contradictory. Due to the falling number of appropriate sites, an spatialized EROI is becoming increasingly important for renewables. ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013
  • 15. •EFF= non-renewable PES in the ground (e.g.crude oil) •EFeed= direct non-renewable energy input for electricity production (feedstock) EROI= EOUT/(EED+EPP) There is a lack of agreement in literature. We propose to use Raugei’s (2012) formula. production (feedstock) •EED= energy for the supply chain (extraction and delivery) of the feed stock, (renewable+non-renewable) •EPP= energy for the construction and end-of-life (EoL) of the power plant, (renewable+non-renew-able) •ER= direct renewable Primary Energy input for electricity production (usually excluded from the EROI calculations) •EOUT= net electricity (EC) output REN= EFEED &EED= 0
  • 16. Variables proposed to be included in the calculation of the EROI Distances and transport costs Topography and connexions Environmental variables Between production and Accessibility. Solar radiation.Between production and consumption: transportation of energy from farms to cities. Energy cost of infrastructure maintenance and development. Accessibility. Easiness of construction of new farms (slope ownership). System of connection to existing grids. Solar radiation. Wind speed. Ocean speed. Environmental impact. Greenhouse emissions.
  • 17. It can be presented as maps showing the most productive zones and the optimal position in terms of: Energy production and associated costs It calculates the sites of maximum energy return at minimum cost and the least impact of production.cost and the least impact of production. Spatialized EROI analysis can include any indirect costs that energy sources might produce: Visual impacts, food market impacts and land price. Spatialized EROI can be a useful tool for decision makers in Chinas future of renewables It would facilitate access to the data increase knowledge and social acceptance of renewable installation projects. ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013
  • 18. An overall review has been conducted and weaknesses have been identified in: Renewable energy development Policy and regulations on renewables. Investment in renewable energy is experiencing a strongInvestment in renewable energy is experiencing a strong increase. However, further efforts will be needed to provide more efficiency in the policies and planning of renewables in China. Determining the efficient areas that maximize the energy returned on investment will be crucial in renewables. The authors propose to introduce spatial variables into the calculation of EROI to facilitate the efficient location of renewable energy. ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013
  • 19. Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention Paula.diaz@uab.cat ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013