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Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
Economic outlook september 2013
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Economic outlook september 2013

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Federgon members (private employment agencies) can expect a slight improvement in market conditions in the coming months due to the somewhat more favorable economic outlook. Even with a growth …

Federgon members (private employment agencies) can expect a slight improvement in market conditions in the coming months due to the somewhat more favorable economic outlook. Even with a growth forecast of 1% to 1.2% in 2014 recovery will only be partial.

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  1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK « The only way is up? » September 2013
  2. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 2 3 4 BELGIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS LABOUR MARKET GLOBAL ECONOMY WORLDWIDE SUMMARY
  3. THE BELGIAN ECONOMY GROWS SLIGHTLY IN 2ND QUARTER Source: NBB 1 GDP Growth Q2|13 vs Q1|13 +0,2% Q2|13 vs Q2|12 0,0% Components GDP Growth Q2|13 vs Q1|13 Added Value Investments Industry +0,4% Enterprises +0,7% Construction -0,4% Housing -0,9% Services +0,2% Public Authority -6,3% Final Consumption Private Consumption +0,2% Net Export +0,2% Public Consumption +0,1% Stocks -0,1%
  4. CONSUMERS TOO CONFIDENT? Consumer expects employment to rise, economists expect the opposite… Optimism due to stabilisation of financial household welfare Source: NBB 1 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 1|2007 3|2007 5|2007 7|2007 9|2007 11|2007 1|2008 3|2008 5|2008 7|2008 9|2008 11|2008 1|2009 3|2009 5|2009 7|2009 9|2009 11|2009 1|2010 3|2010 5|2010 7|2010 9|2010 11|2010 1|2011 3|2011 5|2011 7|2011 9|2011 11|2011 1|2012 3|2012 5|2012 7|2012 9|2012 11|2012 1|2013 3|2013 5|2013 7|2013 Consumentenvertrouwen | La confiance des consommateurs
  5. BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDICATOR INCREASING SLOWLY Improvement in Manufacturing Industry, Business related services & Trade more favourable assessment of orderbooks The economic climate nearly stabilised in the building industry. Source: NBB 1 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 1|2007 3|2007 5|2007 7|2007 9|2007 11|2007 1|2008 3|2008 5|2008 7|2008 9|2008 11|2008 1|2009 3|2009 5|2009 7|2009 9|2009 11|2009 1|2010 3|2010 5|2010 7|2010 9|2010 11|2010 1|2011 3|2011 5|2011 7|2011 9|2011 11|2011 1|2012 3|2012 5|2012 7|2012 9|2012 11|2012 1|2013 3|2013 5|2013 7|2013 Ondernemersvertrouwen | La confiance des chefs d'entreprise
  6. LOW INFLATION RATE (TEMPORARILY?) Yoy growth rates in %, the values in the grey area are forecasts Inflation: Year Averages 2011 3,53% 2012 2,84% 2013 1,20% (e) 2014 1,30% (e) Low inflation due to low vegetable & energy prices Inflation expected to rise : following unrest in the Middle-East Growing demand due to European & American recovery Inflation in the Netherlands: +3,1% European inflation: 1,6% (July) 1 Source: www.plan.be
  7. BELGIAN ECONOMY STILL VULNERABLE Little action so far to improve Belgian’s weak points: 1. Large souvereign debt: 101,1% of GDP 2. Increasing public spending: 54,9% of GDP 3. Loss of international market share 4. Unprepared Social Security System confronted by inevitably ageing population 5. Overvalued housing market GDP expected to grow in 2014 Source: NBB & Petercam 1 NBB +1,1% European Commission +1,2%
  8. GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS Source: World Economic Forum 1 Country/Economy Rank 13-14 Score Rank 11-12 Change Switzerland 1 5,67 1 0 Singapore 2 5,61 2 0 Finland 3 5,54 3 0 Germany 4 5,51 6 2 United States 5 5,48 7 2 Sweden 6 5,48 4 -2 Hong Kong SAR 7 5,47 9 2 Netherlands 8 5,42 5 -3 Japan 9 5,40 10 1 United Kingdom 10 5,37 8 -2 Norway 11 5,33 15 4 Qatar 13 5,24 11 -2 Canada 14 5,20 14 0 Denmark 15 5,18 12 -3 Austria 16 5,15 16 0 Belgium 17 5,13 17 0 Luxembourg 22 5,09 22 0 France 23 5,05 21 -2 Korea, Rep. 25 5,01 19 -6 China 29 4,84 29 0 Turkey 44 4,45 43 -1 Portugal 51 4,40 49 -2 South Africa 53 4,37 52 -1 Brazil 56 4,33 48 -8 India 60 4,28 59 -1 Russian Federation 64 4,25 67 3 Greece 91 3,93 96 5 Global Competitiveness Report Belgium is ranked 17th Same rank as two years ago NO DETERIORATION, NOR IMPROVEMENT The high tax rate discourages working and investment. Rigid labor market weighs on our competitiveness.
  9. BELGIAN UNEMPLOYMENT AT HIGHEST LEVEL IN 14 YEARS Source: Eurostat 2009-2010 | 1st dip: Labourhourding 2012-2013 | 2nd dip: Redundancies Working population grows faster than number of jobs Unemployment increases 8,9% in Belgium 12,1% in Europe 2 Employment slightly decreases Q1|13: 4,54 million jobs 13.600 less than Q1|12
  10. THE SALARIED EMPLOYMENT RATE CONTINUES TO FALL… Source: RSZ | ONSS 2 … both in number of jobs as in volume Q1|13 vs Q4|12 Jobs -0,9%  Increasing pressure on social security Hours -1,2%  Sustainability? Employment volume in FTE Number of jobs
  11. Q1 ’13: THE SALARIED EMPLOYMENT RATE CONTINUES TO FALL Source: RSZ | ONSS Sector Jobs Volume (in hours) Industry -2,3% -4,7%  Continuous downsizing of industrial employment Commercial Services -1,0% -0,6% Non-Commercial Services +0,3% +0,9% 2
  12. JOBVACANCIES & TAW Source: Actiris, FOREM & VDAB 2 Jobvacancies in Flanders -8,6% (August‘13 vs August ‘12) Regular jobs -12,2% Student jobs +17,4% Temporary jobs -12,7% Jobvacancies in Brussels +15,4% Jobvacancies in Wallonia -16,2% (July ‘13 vs July ‘12) Regular jobs -18,8% Temporary jobs -13,5%
  13. STABILIZING FEDERGON TAW-INDEX? Source: NBB 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 07-02 09-02 11-02 01-03 03-03 05-03 07-03 09-03 11-03 01-04 03-04 05-04 07-04 09-04 11-04 01-05 03-05 05-05 07-05 09-05 11-05 01-06 03-06 05-06 07-06 09-06 11-06 01-07 03-07 05-07 07-07 09-07 11-07 01-08 03-08 05-08 07-08 09-08 11-08 01-09 03-09 05-09 07-09 09-09 11-09 01-10 03-10 05-10 07-10 09-10 11-10 01-11 03-11 05-11 07-11 09-11 11-11 01-12 03-12 05-12 07-12 09-12 11-12 01-13 03-13 05-13 07-13 2 Bottoming out of TAW*-activity on -15% of volume on a Y/Y-2 base * TAW = Temporary Agency Work (July ‘13 vs July ‘12) Total -4,6% Blue Collar -5,9% White Collar -2,9% Students -6,6%
  14. ECONOMY WORLDWIDE Source: OECD “A moderate recovery is underway in the major advanced economies, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Assessment. Growth is proceeding at encouraging rates in North America, Japan and the UK. The euro area as a whole is out of recession, although output remains weak in a number of countries.” “Gradual pick-up in momentum in the advanced economies is encouraging but a sustainable recovery is not yet firmly established. Major risks remain. The euro area is still vulnerable to renewed financial markets, banking and sovereign debt tensions. High levels of debt in some emerging markets have increased their vulnerability to financial shocks.” -1,8% 0,3% 0,7% 1,5% 1,6% 1,7% 2,0% 7,4% Italy France Germany UK Japan USA Canada China Expected Growth in 2013 3
  15. UNITED STATES: MAKINGS OF A STRONG RECOVERY3 GDP Growth Q2|13 vs Q2|12 +1,7% Q3|13 vs Q3|12 +2,5% (forecast) Lowering welfare demand, but 7,5% unemployment rate still far above pre-crisis level Rising consumerspending due to higher wages & more jobs Healthy retail sales Rising production orders Housing recovery is built on solid foundations Consumer debt has plunged Banks are keen to lend Shale gas boosts the supply-side → Only in America the growth acceleration is likely to last USA: ENGINE OF GLOBAL GROWTH
  16. EUROPE: FAR FROM THERE Source: The Economist 3 -0,2% -0,2% -0,1% 0,1% 0,3% 0,5% 0,6% 0,7% 0,7% 1,1% -0,5% 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% Italy Netherlands Spain Belgium Euro Area France UK Finland Germany Portugal GDP-growth Q2|13 vs Q1|13 GDP Growth Q2|13 vs Q2|12 +1,1% After a year and half of recession, the euro area’s economy has begun to grow again. Extreme austerity has been abandoned CAUTION! Microeconomic conditions do not point to a recovery that is both rapid & lasting Output in Europe is 3% lower compared to the output before the crisis (In the USA it is 4% higher) GDP for the whole of 2013 would be 0,6% lower in the Eurozone Expected GDP growth 2014: +0,9% The lack of a banking union creates uncertainty, creating a dysfunctional credit market: Europe’s recovery will not accelerate until this is fixed
  17. CHINA: IN TRANSITION, NOT THE ENGINE FOR GLOBAL GROWTH3 GDP Growth 2013 vs 2012 +7,5% Government settles for stabilizing economy The main monthly indicators, from trade to industrial output, improved in july CAUTION! China will avoid a hard landing but will not be a spur for global growth. Real estate prizes keep going up: housing bubble danger persists The investment rate remains unsustainble high: 48% of GDP The debt ratio (debt that China’s firms, households and government owe) has risen to 200% of GDP Growth not expected to grow faster. China’s economy is on the verge of economic transition: From an investment-led economy to a consumption driven: A FRAGILE RECOVERY THAT RELIES HEAVILY ON AMERICA.
  18. STOCK MARKETS The prospect of growth makes European stocks & bonds attractive again. The European stock markets are finding momentum. Source: Euronext 95,0 100,0 105,0 110,0 115,0 120,0 125,0 Index Bel20 Index CAC40 Index Dow Jones 3
  19. SUMMARY4 Several economic indicators point out that the bottom of the economic downturn may have been reached. The Belgian GDP has risen on a quarterly basis and both consumer as business confidence have gone up. The recovery however is fragile. GDP just stabilised on a yearly basis, with some Belgian GDP-components further deteriorating. The labour market, for example, still surfers from a loss of employment, in volume as well as in jobs. The situation in the Eurozone is comparable. Several Euro-members signal positive GDP- growth, although the economy stays vulnerable. For further growth Europe relies on the expansion of other economies. Therefore all eyes are set on the United States. The revival of the American economy is believed to be lasting. In doing so, it gives the Chinese economy the necessary fuel to handle it’s transition to a mature economy. Federgon members can expect a slight improvement in market conditions in the coming months due to the somewhat more favorable economic outlook. Even with a growth forecast of 1% to 1.2% in 2014 recovery will only be partial.
  20. CONTACT RESEARCH & ECONOMIC AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT PAUL VERSCHUEREN THIBAUT PRINCEN HAVENLAAN 86C BTE 302 - 1000 BRUSSEL AVENUE DU PORT 86C BTE 302 - 1000 BRUXELLES TEL: 02/203 38 03 FAX: 02/203 42 68 STAT@FEDERGON.BE

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