The Economics of Ecosystems
                 and Biodiversity (TEEB)

                             Part A:
              E...
Presentation Structure


1.   Biodiversity and Ecosystem losses – The Ecological Case
     for the Urgency of Action

2.  ...
The Urgency for Action



  The Ecological Case




                         9/25/2008   3
Past Losses

    Global Forest Area has shrunk by approximately 40% since 1700. Forests have
  completely disappeared in 2...
Source: MEA   9/25/2008   5
Running down our natural capital
                     The Demise of Global Fisheries




                                 ...
Substitution?

                     We are fishing down the foodweb – D. Pauly (UBC, Canada)




Source: L Braat presentat...
Biodiversity loss
                                                       From 1700 to 2050




                           ...
Changes in Ecosystem Services
                                 due to loss of Biodiversity

        Pristine              ...
Level of Biodiversity in the World in 2000
                Using Mean Species Abundance (MSA) indicator




Remaining MSA ...
Level of Biodiversity in the World in 2050
                         One Scenario of the future : OECD/Globio




Remaining...
The Global Loss of
                 Biodiversity
                                                                         ...
The Global Loss of
                 Biodiversity
                                                                         ...
Ecosystems and Ecosystem services




The Ecosystems in which we live and in which our economies
      operate, provide a ...
Ecosystem Services - The
              Millennium Ecosystem framework




Source: MEA                                    9...
Different Biomes,
                             different (level) of services
                              Provisioning se...
Ecosystems, land-use & human well-
                        being : the extent of this relationship
                       ...
The link between biodiversity,
                                 ecosystems, their services, and
                          ...
Land-uses and trade offs
                                        for ecosystem services

   1natural                     C...
Ecosystem service production & use
                It can be a complex relationship; benefits sharing?




Source: Andrew ...
ESS service provision & spatial relation
                     Example: carbon storage




                 t C/ha




 Pro...
The Evaluation Challenge




What should we measure to understand
   and communicate the problem?

   How can we go about ...
Measuring Benefits of Ecosystem services
           What can be said in what terms and what was explored?


              ...
Interest and evidence

                                 Level of information            Level of press/interest

         ...
Press Echo to TEEB I, May 2008




Source: Dr Carsten Neßhöver, Heidi Wittmer & Christoph Schröter-Schlaack, Presentation ...
COPI Results

Based on the Report to the European Commission, May 29, 2008


The Cost of Policy Inaction: Not Halting Biod...
Mapping changes : from Biodiversity &
                  Ecosystems to Economic Values



     OECD
    Baseline
    scenar...
Biodiversity loss - 1700 to 2050




                                                                                     ...
Change of Landuse (area coverage)
                               across all biomes – Global Total


                      ...
Loss of Quality
                                            Global total


  Loss of quality - due to pollution, fragmenta...
Valuation and Ecosystem service losses
                            COPI calculation: A
                      Annual Loss o...
COPI - Some key results


• The welfare loss grows with each year of biodiversity and ecosystem loss.
• Over the period 20...
Global COPI
     Loss of Ecosystem services from land based ecosystems
                     All land based biomes*


     ...
Global COPI
                             Loss of Ecosystem services
                                  Forestry biomes


Fo...
What ESS could already be
                                included (forests)?
             Included - (8 services)        ...
COPI – Forestry Biome
                  Different ways of calculating the loss

 A : 50-year impact of inaction           ...
Valuation and Ecosystem service losses

                                                                                  ...
Summary

Biodiversity arguments for action – eroding our natural capital
Social arguments for action – services lost hit a...
Thank You

                               Patrick ten Brink
             Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP...
Study Authors and Contributors
COPI, and Scoping the Science Studies




                                        9/25/2008...
Study Authors & Contributors (cont.)




                                       9/25/2008   41
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PtB of IEEP Presentation on The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity TEEB The Science and Economics 22 September 2008 Prague

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PtB of IEEP Presentation on The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity TEEB The Science and Economics 22 September 2008 Prague

  1. 1. The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) Part A: Ecological losses to Economic losses (Issues and values in TEEB Phase I) Patrick ten Brink Senior Fellow and Head of Brussels Office Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) Building on the work of: COPI Team: Alterra, IEEP, MNP, Ecologic, GHK, FEEM, W&B, UNEP-WCMC, & TEEB Core team (Pavan Sukhdev, EC, BMU, EEA, UFZ, IEEP, UoL, IIT) and other experts 22 September 2008 Prague ptenbrink@ieep.eu 9/25/2008 1
  2. 2. Presentation Structure 1. Biodiversity and Ecosystem losses – The Ecological Case for the Urgency of Action 2. Ecosystems and Ecosystem services – benefitting society, the economy, business and individuals. 3. The Valuation Challenge – attributing monetary values to the value of ecosystem services 4. COPI / TEEB Phase 1 numbers – The Economic Case for the Urgency of Action Then Presentation by Pavan Sukhdev, TEEB Study Leader On TEEB Phase II: The Aims & Ambitions, Focus and Process 9/25/2008 2
  3. 3. The Urgency for Action The Ecological Case 9/25/2008 3
  4. 4. Past Losses Global Forest Area has shrunk by approximately 40% since 1700. Forests have completely disappeared in 25 countries [1]. Since 1900, the world has lost about 50%of its wetlands. [2]. Some 20% of the world’s coral reefs - have been effectively destroyed by fishing, pollution, disease and coral bleaching and approximately 24% of the remaining reefs in the world are under imminent risk of collapse through human pressures.[3] In the past two decades, 35% of mangroves have disappeared. Some countries have lost up to 80% through conversion for aquaculture, overexploitation and storms.[4] The rate of species extinction is estimated to be 100 to 1,000 times more rapid than the “natural” extinction rate (MA 2005). [1] United Nations Forest and Agriculture Organisation, 2001.Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000; United Nations Forest and Agriculture Organisation, 2006 Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005. [2] http://www.ramsar.org/about/about_wetland_loss.htm [3] Wilkinson C., 2004: Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2004 report [4] Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005: Global Assessment Report 1: Current State & Trends Assessment. Island Press, Washington DC. Detail: Chapter 19 Coastal Systems. Coordinating lead authors: Tundi Agardy and Jacqueline Alder. Original reference: 35%: Valiela et al. 2001; 80% reference: Spalding et al. 1997 9/25/2008 4
  5. 5. Source: MEA 9/25/2008 5
  6. 6. Running down our natural capital The Demise of Global Fisheries 40 % 40 % 20 % 2010 Source: Sea Around Us project 9/25/2008 6
  7. 7. Substitution? We are fishing down the foodweb – D. Pauly (UBC, Canada) Source: L Braat presentation COP9 Bonn May 2008; based on slide by D. Pauly 9/25/2008 7
  8. 8. Biodiversity loss From 1700 to 2050 73% 62% Richer Ecosystems Poorer Ecosystems 9/25/2008 Source: building on Ben ten Brink (MNP) presentation at the Workshop: The Economics of the Global Loss of Biological Diversity 5-6 March 2008, Brussels, Belgium. 8
  9. 9. Changes in Ecosystem Services due to loss of Biodiversity Pristine Original forest species Extensive use Extensive use Plantation Subsistence agriculture Degraded Fossil fuel land subsidized Source: L Braat presentation COP9 Bonn May 2008 on the COPI Study 9/25/2008 9
  10. 10. Level of Biodiversity in the World in 2000 Using Mean Species Abundance (MSA) indicator Remaining MSA in % 9/25/2008 10 Source: Ben ten Brink (MNP) presentation at the Workshop: The Economics of the Global Loss of Biological Diversity 5-6 March 2008, Brussels, Belgium.
  11. 11. Level of Biodiversity in the World in 2050 One Scenario of the future : OECD/Globio Remaining MSA in % MSA loss from 71% to 60% - not evenly spread Natural Areas decline by 7.5 Million Sq. Km. Most lose; the poor generally affected more strongly 9/25/2008 Source: Ben ten Brink (MNP) presentation at the Workshop: The Economics of the Global Loss of Biological Diversity 5-6 March 2008, Brussels, Belgium. 11
  12. 12. The Global Loss of Biodiversity 2000 Source: L Braat presentation COP9 Bonn May 2008 on the COPI Study; building on MNP data 9/25/2008 12
  13. 13. The Global Loss of Biodiversity 2050 Europe – at Risk India - at Risk Africa – at Risk. The World – at Risk. Source: L Braat presentation COP9 Bonn May 2008 on the COPI Study; building on MNP data 9/25/2008 13
  14. 14. Ecosystems and Ecosystem services The Ecosystems in which we live and in which our economies operate, provide a range of services that benefit: • Individuals • Society • Firms • The economy 9/25/2008 14
  15. 15. Ecosystem Services - The Millennium Ecosystem framework Source: MEA 9/25/2008 15
  16. 16. Different Biomes, different (level) of services Provisioning services: Food & fibre, Water, Fuel (biofuel)… Forests Regulating services: Air quality maintenance; • Boreal forest Climate regulation (local, regional, global) – carbon storage; • Temperate forests Water regulation (e.g. flood prevention, runoff …); • Mountain forests Erosion control • Etc. Natural hazards control (e.g. Fire resistance, storm & avalanche protection Cultural & Supporting services – ALL (recreation, tourism et al) Provisioning services: Food & fibre, Water, Fuel … Wetlands • Coastal wetlands Regulating services: Climate regulation (local, regional, global); • Floodplains Water regulation (e.g. flood prevention, runoff …); • Swaps, bogs, Water purification and waste management; moors … Erosion control; Natural hazards control … • Etc. Cultural & Supporting services – ALL Source: From presentation by Marianne Kettunen of IEEP; based on MA 2005 classification 9/25/2008 16
  17. 17. Ecosystems, land-use & human well- being : the extent of this relationship Services 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Plant-related Forest trees- Prevention Refugium Materials Breeding Physical Amenity Didactic support Cycling Identity related Food Sink Land cover types Artificial surfaces/ Urban Arable land & permanent crops Grassland & mixed farmland Forests & woodland shrub Heathland, sclerophylous veg. Open space with little/ no vegetation Wetlands Water bodies Source: Jean-Louis Weber (EEA) presentation at the Workshop: The Economics of the Global Loss of Biological Diversity 5-6 March 2008, Brussels, Belgium 9/25/2008 17
  18. 18. The link between biodiversity, ecosystems, their services, and benefits to mankind… Maintenance and restoration costs Biophysical Structure of Economic and process social values (& market values) eg 1: woodland Function habitat eg 1: slow eg 2: net primary passage of water productivity) Service eg 2: biomass eg 1: flood prevention eg 2: harvestable Benefit (value) products eg 1: willingness to pay for woodland protection / avoided costs of impacts eg 2: for more woodland harvestable products Source: Building on presentation by Jean-Louis Weber (EEA) presentation at the Workshop: The Economics of the Global Loss of Biological Diversity 5-6 9/25/2008 18 March 2008, Brussels, Belgium
  19. 19. Land-uses and trade offs for ecosystem services 1natural Climate regulation 2 extensive Climate regulation Food Energy Food Energy Soil protection Soil Climate protection Freshwater Freshwater regulation Food Energy - Upon closer analysis Net value may be less Soil protection Freshwater 3 intensive Source: Ben ten Brink (MNP) presentation at the Workshop: The Economics of the Global Loss of Biological Diversity 5-6 March 2008, Brussels, Belgium. 9/25/2008 19
  20. 20. Ecosystem service production & use It can be a complex relationship; benefits sharing? Source: Andrew Balmford & Ana Rodrigues 2008 Scoping the Science report. Contribution to TEEB Report 9/25/2008 20
  21. 21. ESS service provision & spatial relation Example: carbon storage t C/ha Production rates, flows and values all vary spatially Services produced and enjoyed in different places Costs and benefits of conserving services accrue in different places Source: Andrew Balmford & Ana Rodrigues 2008 Presentation within the Scoping the Science work 9/25/2008 21
  22. 22. The Evaluation Challenge What should we measure to understand and communicate the problem? How can we go about doing this? 9/25/2008 22
  23. 23. Measuring Benefits of Ecosystem services What can be said in what terms and what was explored? Non-Specified Monetary: eg avoided water purification Benefits costs, avoided flood damage, tourist value, value of medicines / pharmaceuticals from Increasing up the natural products benefits Monetary Value pyramid Quantitative: eg number people benefiting from wood from forests, # of avoided health impacts; The Benefits Quantitative Review of Effects number of visitors Pyramid Type of benefits; health benefits from clean air, social benefits Qualitative Review from recreation, income from products, security, wellbeing. Knowledge gaps Full range of ecosystem services from biodiversity The “known- unknowns” and “unknown-unknowns” Source: P. ten Brink: presentation at March 2008 workshop Review of Economics of Biodiversity Loss, Brussels 9/25/2008 23
  24. 24. Interest and evidence Level of information Level of press/interest Quantitative / qualitative Monetary There are different audiences, and different messages are needed for each. Different types of messages have different power and different reach. The overall aim is to get the message across to the (range of) key audiences – in a manner that is representative of the facts and that engages interest. Hence, we need to work out how best to combine monetary and non-monetary information. Source: P. ten Brink: presentation at March 2008 workshop Review of Economics of Biodiversity Loss, Brussels 9/25/2008 24
  25. 25. Press Echo to TEEB I, May 2008 Source: Dr Carsten Neßhöver, Heidi Wittmer & Christoph Schröter-Schlaack, Presentation in Vilm, 26.8.2008 9/25/2008 25
  26. 26. COPI Results Based on the Report to the European Commission, May 29, 2008 The Cost of Policy Inaction: Not Halting Biodiversity Loss L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.) with J. Bakkes, K. Bolt, I. Braeuer, B. ten Brink, A. Chiabai, H. Ding, H. Gerdes, M. Jeuken, M. Kettunen, U. Kirchholtes, C. Klok, A.Markandya, P. Nunes, M. van Oorschot, N. Peralta- Bezerra, M. Rayment, C. Travisi, M. Walpole. Wageningen / Brussels, May 2008 9/25/2008 26
  27. 27. Mapping changes : from Biodiversity & Ecosystems to Economic Values OECD Baseline scenario Change Change in in Change Economic Land use, in Change Value Climate, Biodiversity Pollution, In Water use Ecosystem International Services Policies Change in Ecosystem functions Source: L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.) 9/25/2008 27
  28. 28. Biodiversity loss - 1700 to 2050 73% 62% Source: building on Ben ten Brink (MNP) presentation at the Workshop: The Economics of the Global Loss of Biological Diversity 5-6 March 2008, Brussels, Belgium. 28 9/25/2008
  29. 29. Change of Landuse (area coverage) across all biomes – Global Total Actual 2000 2050 Difference Area million km2 million km2 2000 to 2050 Natural areas 65.5 58.0 -11% Bare natural 3.3 3.0 -9% Forest managed 4.2 7.0 70% Extensive agriculture 5.0 3.0 -39% Intensive agriculture 11.0 15.8 44% Woody biofuels 0.1 0.5 626% Cultivated grazing 19.1 20.8 9% Artificial surfaces 0.2 0.2 0% World Total * 108.4 108.4 0% Natural areas loss is 7.5m km2 - broadly equivalent to the area of the Australia. Losses: natural, bare natural areas & extensive agriculture broadly equals the USA Source: L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.) 2008 COPI 9/25/2008 29
  30. 30. Loss of Quality Global total Loss of quality - due to pollution, fragmentation, infrastructure and climate impacts (Global average all biomes) Mean Species Abundance indicator Mean species abundance change for different land use categories MSA loss 2000 to 2050 Natural areas 11% Bare natural 8% Forest managed 20% Extensive agriculture 8% Intensive agriculture -2% Woody biofuels 0% Cultivated grazing 14% World Total 18% Source: L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.) 2008 COPI 9/25/2008 30
  31. 31. Valuation and Ecosystem service losses COPI calculation: A Annual Loss of economic value of ecosystem services that would have been Relative to 2000 available had biodiversity remained at 2000 levels. Estimate for 2050. Services that would have been there, had biodiversity been A Ecosystem halted. service level Losses continue into the future 2000 2010 2030 2050 Source: P ten Brink in L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.) 2008 COPI Study 9/25/2008 31
  32. 32. COPI - Some key results • The welfare loss grows with each year of biodiversity and ecosystem loss. • Over the period 2000 to 2010 this amounts to around 50 billion Euros extra loss per year, every year. • By 2010 the welfare losses from the loss of ecosystem services amount to 545 billion EUR in 2010 or just under 1% of world GDP. • The value of the amount lost every year rises, until it is around 275bn EUR/yr in 2050. • The loss of welfare in 2050 from the cumulative loss of ecosystem services between now and then amounts to 14 trillion (10^12) Euros under the fuller estimation scenario • This is equivalent in scale to 7% of projected global GDP for 2050 – across land-based biomes Source: P ten Brink in L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.) 2008 COPI Study 9/25/2008 32
  33. 33. Global COPI Loss of Ecosystem services from land based ecosystems All land based biomes* Relative to 2000 Relative to 2000 Equivalent to % Area Billion EUR of GDP in 2050 Natural areas -15678 -7.97% Forest managed 1852 0.95% Extensive Agriculture -1109 -0.57% Intensive Agriculture 1303 0.67% Woody biofuels 381 0.19% Cultivated grazing -786 -0.40% World Total -13938 -7.1% Land based ecosystems only The loss grows with each year of biodiversity and ecosystem loss. Source: P ten Brink in L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.) 2008 COPI Study for DGENV 9/25/2008 33
  34. 34. Global COPI Loss of Ecosystem services Forestry biomes Forest biomes Partial Estimation Fuller Estimation Boreal forest -163 -1999 Tropical forest -536 -3362 Warm mixed forest -249 -2332 Temperate mixed forest -190 -1372 Cool coniferous forest -47 -701 Temperate deciduous forest -133 -1025 Forest Total -1317 -10791 Natural areas -1552 -12310 World GDP in 2050 (trillion (10^12) EUR)* 195.5 Losses of ESS from forests as share of % GDP -0.7% -5.5% Losses of ESS from natural areas in forest biomes as share of % GDP -0.8% -6.3% Source: P ten Brink in L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.) 2008 COPI Study Building on FEEM forestry per hectare values9/25/2008 34
  35. 35. What ESS could already be included (forests)? Included - (8 services) Not included - (10 services) Provisioning services Provisioning services Food, fiber, fuel Biochemicals, natural medicines, Regulating services pharmaceuticals Air quality maintenance Ornamental resources Soil quality maintenance Fresh water Climate regulation (i.e. carbon storage) Regulating services Water regulation (i.e. flood prevention,, Temperature regulation, precipitation aquifer recharge etc.) Erosion control Water purification and waste Technology development from nature management Regulation of human diseases Cultural services Biological control and pollination Cultural diversity, spiritual and religious Natural hazards control / mitigation values, educational values, aesthetic and cultural Cultural services Recreation and ecotourism • Living comfort due to environmental amenities Source: L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.) 2008 COPI Study 9/25/2008 35
  36. 36. COPI – Forestry Biome Different ways of calculating the loss A : 50-year impact of inaction B : Natural Capital Loss every year Lost Welfare equivalent Natural Capital Lost from to 5.5 % of GDP (from forest USD 1.35 x 10 12 to 3.10 x 10 12 (@ 4% Discount Rate) (@ 1% Discount Rate) biomes overall) … or… Source: P ten Brink in L. Braat & P. ten Brink (eds.) 2008 COPI Study for DGENV 9/25/2008 36
  37. 37. Valuation and Ecosystem service losses GDP, with feedback on GDP (OECD Scenarios) economic losses from Relative to 2000 2.8%/year biodiversity losses integrated - illustrative GDP: 41.4$ trillion (PPP) (10^12) Population GDP/capita: 680$ (PPP) 9100 million Population: 6092 million GDP adjusted for impact of biodiversity loss - illustrative Services that would have been there, had biodiversity been halted Ecosystem service level 2000 2050 9/25/2008 37 Source: Patrick ten Brink (IEEP), Leon Braat (Alterra), Mark van Ooorshot (MNP), Matt Rayment (GHK)
  38. 38. Summary Biodiversity arguments for action – eroding our natural capital Social arguments for action – services lost hit all, and poor hardest. Economic arguments for action – we risk undermining future growth and prosperity by undermining our natural capital Need to understand and communicate the Values of Ecosystems and Biodiversity and the risk of their loss Need to understand and communicate what can be done to respond more effectively – across all “end user” types. The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: Phase II Presentation by Pavan Sukhdev, TEEB Study Leader 9/25/2008 38
  39. 39. Thank You Patrick ten Brink Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) ptenbrink@ieep.eu www.ieep.eu IEEP is an independent, not-for-profit institute dedicated to the analysis, understanding and Now to how the TEEB will respond to these challenges promotion of policies for a sustainable environment in Europe Presentation by Pavan Sukhdev, TEEB Study Leader Brussels Office 55 Quai au Foin/Hooikaai London Office B-1000 Brussels 15 Queen Anne's Gate, London SW1H 9BU Belgium UK Tel: +32 (0) 2738 7482 Tel: +44 (0)207 799 2244 Fax: +32 (0) 2732 4004 Fax: +44 (0)207 799 2600 www.ieep.eu 9/25/2008 39
  40. 40. Study Authors and Contributors COPI, and Scoping the Science Studies 9/25/2008 40
  41. 41. Study Authors & Contributors (cont.) 9/25/2008 41

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