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2008: the Year in Political Geography By Patrick Ottenhoff,  TheElectoralMap.com
It’s mid-2007, and Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani releases a series of electoral maps to argue that he’s the only ca...
Not to be outdone, John McCain releases a map contending that he’ll outperform Giuliani against Clinton in many states… bu...
While the two frontrunners are debating electability, Ron Paul’s “money bomb” hauls in $4 million in one day, mostly from ...
One the state level, Bobby Jindal posts an historic victory in Louisiana, completing its transition to a Red State. Octobe...
Democrats take the Virginia Senate… November 7, 2007
And Beshear flips Kentucky… November 7, 2007
In the meantime, the New York press swoons over the idea of Michael Bloomberg running for president.
But the real action is in Iowa…
… Where the Obama campaign is establishing an unprecedented voter outreach network.
It pays off. Obama wins the Hawkeye State... January 3, 2008
And Mike Huckabee surprises everyone by winning caucuses in nearly two-thirds of Iowa’s counties. January 3, 2008
The candidates take the overnight flight from Des Moines to Manchester, where McCain is waiting.
And sure enough, the Granite State saves McCain once again.  Winnipesaukee vacationer Mitt Romney wins only a handful of t...
Speaking of rescuing candidacies, New Hampshire’s four most populous counties choose Hillary Clinton, and she squeaks by O...
The attention quickly turns to Michigan, where former Gov. George Romney’s son wins. January 15, 2008
Clinton posts a strong victory over Uncommitted (which claims two counties itself) in the contested Democratic primary. Ja...
Continuing his winning streak, Romney rolls in Nevada, although Paul makes a strong statement. January 19, 2008
Clinton edges Obama in votes, but in a sign of what’s to come, his campaigns keeps its eye on the prize: Delegates. Januar...
While Romney is campaigning in Nevada, McCain and Huckabee are battling it out in South Carolina. McCain wins, avenging hi...
Obama beats Clinton by almost two to one. Bill deftly points out that race may have played a factor. January 19, 2008
The attention turns to Florida, otherwise known as Giuliani's Alamo.
Rudy’s strategy yields a grand prize of second place in Miami-Dade. He bows out of the race. January 30, 2008
In the disputed Democratic contest, Clinton thoroughly routs Obama. January 30, 2008
The candidates gear up for Super Tuesday.
Super Tuesday. Huckabee continues to rack up delegates, winning over most of SEC Country… February 5, 2008
But McCain takes most big states, and shows that his candidacy is playing in Peoria… February 5, 2008
And the Arizona senator wins enough states to effectively box out Romney (with Huckabee’s help). February 5, 2008
Clinton’s investments in big states pay off... February 5, 2008
But Obama racks up delegates across the South and in small states. February 5, 2008
Leaving the two Democratic heavyweights effectively deadlocked. February 5, 2008
The campaign moves to the  Washington Post ’s backyard.
Obama crushes Clinton in Virginia, thanks to the vote-rich urban crescent. But in a sign of what’s to come, Hillary sweeps...
DC gets to exercise a meaningful vote. January 8, 2008
Obama goes on a February tear, winning 11 in a row.
Trends begin to emerge in the Democratic contest.
…And not all of them are pretty.
As a stalemate ensues, attention turns to Texas’ awkward prima-caucus system.
Clinton wins more counties and votes, but Obama wins more caucuses and delegates.  March 4, 2008
And in the Buckeye State, Hillary routs Obama and mirrors a winning Strickland strategy.  March 4, 2008
The Obama camp continues to raise money and chip away at the increasingly complex delegate count.
Determined not to be swamped in Pennsylvania, Obama’s team simply creates new Democratic voters.
But Clinton still posts a strong win.  April 22, 2008
And now it’s crystal clear that Appalachia really doesn’t like the presumptive Democratic nominee.
In the meantime, McCain decides to capitalize on his three month head start by creating a fragmented 10-region campaign st...
The end is in sight. Obama crushes Clinton in North Carolina.  May 6, 2008
And nearly ties her in Indiana.  May 6, 2008
But Hillary maintains that she can win it, and makes a last minute Power Point pitch to superdelegates on the grounds of e...
She has a point, but opportunities diminish.
Clinton continues to roll in Appalachia.  May 20, 2008
But Obama seems to match her delegate for delegate, prolonging the stalemate. May 20, 2008
The Obama camp gets more bullish.
In the meantime, Democrats begin targeting –  and winning  – special elections in Dixie.
The McCain camp keeps on keeping on, promising to change the map.
…And leaving Republicans questioning their electoral map analysis.
Obama finally wins. Democrats gather in Denver and are inundated with talk about Scranton. August 25-28, 2008
A week later, Republicans gather in the Twin Cities. But all eyes are on the Gulf. September 1-4, 2008
Alaska!
Pundits have a field day analyzing trends and demographics.
…And predicting voter turnout.
…And analyzing voters’ alcoholic beverage preference.
…And flirting with long-shot possibilities.
…And flexing their idiocy.
As the campaign progresses, the economy depresses.  Home foreclosures grip the nation. October, 2008
McCain “suspends” his campaign and the two candidates return to Washington. The House passes a controversial bailout bill.
The tide turns clearly to Obama.  He has a ton more money and is swamping McCain in airtime.
538.com explains that it’s a statistical inevitably that Obama will win.
Election Night. Obama crushes McCain. November 4, 2008
He carries Florida on the backbone of Democratic gains on the I-4 Corridor. November 4, 2008
Obama takes Ohio. November 4, 2008
He wins states that Bush won by 14 points in 2004, posting huge gains in the suburbs. November 4, 2008
Democrats even increase their majorities in the House. November 4, 2008
2008 is a blue wave. Most of the country, besides Arkansas, Arizona and Appalachia shift Democratic. November 4, 2008
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2008: The Year in Political Geography

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Transcript of "2008: The Year in Political Geography"

  1. 1. 2008: the Year in Political Geography By Patrick Ottenhoff, TheElectoralMap.com
  2. 2. It’s mid-2007, and Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani releases a series of electoral maps to argue that he’s the only candidate who can conquer the juggernaut Clinton campaign. He forecasts a 210-18 electoral vote rout. Fall 2007
  3. 3. Not to be outdone, John McCain releases a map contending that he’ll outperform Giuliani against Clinton in many states… but in classic McCain style, he also maps out where Giuliani outperforms him. Fall 2007
  4. 4. While the two frontrunners are debating electability, Ron Paul’s “money bomb” hauls in $4 million in one day, mostly from the Mountain West. November 4, 2007
  5. 5. One the state level, Bobby Jindal posts an historic victory in Louisiana, completing its transition to a Red State. October 20, 2007
  6. 6. Democrats take the Virginia Senate… November 7, 2007
  7. 7. And Beshear flips Kentucky… November 7, 2007
  8. 8. In the meantime, the New York press swoons over the idea of Michael Bloomberg running for president.
  9. 9. But the real action is in Iowa…
  10. 10. … Where the Obama campaign is establishing an unprecedented voter outreach network.
  11. 11. It pays off. Obama wins the Hawkeye State... January 3, 2008
  12. 12. And Mike Huckabee surprises everyone by winning caucuses in nearly two-thirds of Iowa’s counties. January 3, 2008
  13. 13. The candidates take the overnight flight from Des Moines to Manchester, where McCain is waiting.
  14. 14. And sure enough, the Granite State saves McCain once again. Winnipesaukee vacationer Mitt Romney wins only a handful of towns on the Massachusetts border. January 8, 2008
  15. 15. Speaking of rescuing candidacies, New Hampshire’s four most populous counties choose Hillary Clinton, and she squeaks by Obama, 39-36%. January 8, 2008
  16. 16. The attention quickly turns to Michigan, where former Gov. George Romney’s son wins. January 15, 2008
  17. 17. Clinton posts a strong victory over Uncommitted (which claims two counties itself) in the contested Democratic primary. January 15, 2008
  18. 18. Continuing his winning streak, Romney rolls in Nevada, although Paul makes a strong statement. January 19, 2008
  19. 19. Clinton edges Obama in votes, but in a sign of what’s to come, his campaigns keeps its eye on the prize: Delegates. January 19, 2008
  20. 20. While Romney is campaigning in Nevada, McCain and Huckabee are battling it out in South Carolina. McCain wins, avenging his 2000 showing. January 19, 2008
  21. 21. Obama beats Clinton by almost two to one. Bill deftly points out that race may have played a factor. January 19, 2008
  22. 22. The attention turns to Florida, otherwise known as Giuliani's Alamo.
  23. 23. Rudy’s strategy yields a grand prize of second place in Miami-Dade. He bows out of the race. January 30, 2008
  24. 24. In the disputed Democratic contest, Clinton thoroughly routs Obama. January 30, 2008
  25. 25. The candidates gear up for Super Tuesday.
  26. 26. Super Tuesday. Huckabee continues to rack up delegates, winning over most of SEC Country… February 5, 2008
  27. 27. But McCain takes most big states, and shows that his candidacy is playing in Peoria… February 5, 2008
  28. 28. And the Arizona senator wins enough states to effectively box out Romney (with Huckabee’s help). February 5, 2008
  29. 29. Clinton’s investments in big states pay off... February 5, 2008
  30. 30. But Obama racks up delegates across the South and in small states. February 5, 2008
  31. 31. Leaving the two Democratic heavyweights effectively deadlocked. February 5, 2008
  32. 32. The campaign moves to the Washington Post ’s backyard.
  33. 33. Obama crushes Clinton in Virginia, thanks to the vote-rich urban crescent. But in a sign of what’s to come, Hillary sweeps the state’s Appalachian region. February 12, 2008
  34. 34. DC gets to exercise a meaningful vote. January 8, 2008
  35. 35. Obama goes on a February tear, winning 11 in a row.
  36. 36. Trends begin to emerge in the Democratic contest.
  37. 37. …And not all of them are pretty.
  38. 38. As a stalemate ensues, attention turns to Texas’ awkward prima-caucus system.
  39. 39. Clinton wins more counties and votes, but Obama wins more caucuses and delegates. March 4, 2008
  40. 40. And in the Buckeye State, Hillary routs Obama and mirrors a winning Strickland strategy. March 4, 2008
  41. 41. The Obama camp continues to raise money and chip away at the increasingly complex delegate count.
  42. 42. Determined not to be swamped in Pennsylvania, Obama’s team simply creates new Democratic voters.
  43. 43. But Clinton still posts a strong win. April 22, 2008
  44. 44. And now it’s crystal clear that Appalachia really doesn’t like the presumptive Democratic nominee.
  45. 45. In the meantime, McCain decides to capitalize on his three month head start by creating a fragmented 10-region campaign structure.
  46. 46. The end is in sight. Obama crushes Clinton in North Carolina. May 6, 2008
  47. 47. And nearly ties her in Indiana. May 6, 2008
  48. 48. But Hillary maintains that she can win it, and makes a last minute Power Point pitch to superdelegates on the grounds of electability.
  49. 49. She has a point, but opportunities diminish.
  50. 50. Clinton continues to roll in Appalachia. May 20, 2008
  51. 51. But Obama seems to match her delegate for delegate, prolonging the stalemate. May 20, 2008
  52. 52. The Obama camp gets more bullish.
  53. 53. In the meantime, Democrats begin targeting – and winning – special elections in Dixie.
  54. 54. The McCain camp keeps on keeping on, promising to change the map.
  55. 55. …And leaving Republicans questioning their electoral map analysis.
  56. 56. Obama finally wins. Democrats gather in Denver and are inundated with talk about Scranton. August 25-28, 2008
  57. 57. A week later, Republicans gather in the Twin Cities. But all eyes are on the Gulf. September 1-4, 2008
  58. 58. Alaska!
  59. 59. Pundits have a field day analyzing trends and demographics.
  60. 60. …And predicting voter turnout.
  61. 61. …And analyzing voters’ alcoholic beverage preference.
  62. 62. …And flirting with long-shot possibilities.
  63. 63. …And flexing their idiocy.
  64. 64. As the campaign progresses, the economy depresses. Home foreclosures grip the nation. October, 2008
  65. 65. McCain “suspends” his campaign and the two candidates return to Washington. The House passes a controversial bailout bill.
  66. 66. The tide turns clearly to Obama. He has a ton more money and is swamping McCain in airtime.
  67. 67. 538.com explains that it’s a statistical inevitably that Obama will win.
  68. 68. Election Night. Obama crushes McCain. November 4, 2008
  69. 69. He carries Florida on the backbone of Democratic gains on the I-4 Corridor. November 4, 2008
  70. 70. Obama takes Ohio. November 4, 2008
  71. 71. He wins states that Bush won by 14 points in 2004, posting huge gains in the suburbs. November 4, 2008
  72. 72. Democrats even increase their majorities in the House. November 4, 2008
  73. 73. 2008 is a blue wave. Most of the country, besides Arkansas, Arizona and Appalachia shift Democratic. November 4, 2008
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