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Small Worlds with a
    Difference
New Gatekeepers and the Filtering of Political
         Information on Twitter

    full paper at the websci repository

  Pascal Jürgens                     Andreas Jungherr        Harald Schoen
                                     University of Bamberg   University of Bamberg
  University of Mainz
                                     andreas.jungherr        harald.schoen
  pascal.juergens@uni-mainz.de
                                     @uni-bamberg.de         @uni-bamberg.de
                                 1
Political Tweets
(German general election 2009)


“Ihr werdet euch noch wünschen wir wären
Politikverdrossen [sic!].” – Max Winde (@343max)
                 rough translation:
“Soon you’ll be wishing we were through with
politics”



                         2
A Political Question
Assuming that …
the web is a considerable source for political
information
each user only perceives a selection of this
information
facts and opinions have the potential to influence
recipients and journalists


Q: what forces influence the visibility of information?

                             3
Old Answer

  Journalists as gatekeepers
              vs
Recipients as selective readers
  (“Uses & Gratifications”)



               4
New Environment
Networked Information

Relevant – social networking sites see
immense growth in adoption
New paradigms – real-time, recommended
many-to-many communication
Perceived information varies, selection is
distributed
Old answers neglect network effects in the process

                         5
What We Know

Social networks tend to exhibit small world
properties (so do networks of political communication on twitter)
Information flows fast and networks are
relatively resistant to (random) disruptions
Information should be able to move unencumbered



                                 6
The Problems
Contagion model of information spread
Links can be substituted
But: Almost everyone has almost no friends (power
law), key players have dominant role
Information relay via key players
Non-Random removal!
Problem moves from contagion to disruption
(Borgatti’s KPP-Neg problem)

                            7
Impact of Key Player
Removal
Comput Math Organiz Theor (2006) 12: 21–34                                                              25




Fig. 3 Network in which removing the two most central nodes (“i” and “ j”) is not as disruptive as removing
a different pair of nodes (“i” and “ j”) Borgatti (2010) p.39

                                                    8
Impact of Key Player
Removal
Comput Math Organiz Theor (2006) 12: 21–34                                                              25




Fig. 3 Network in which removing the two most central nodes (“i” and “ j”) is not as disruptive as removing
a different pair of nodes (“i” and “ j”) Borgatti (2010) p.39

                                                    8
Impact of Key Player
Removal
 Comput Math Organiz Theor (2006) 12: 21–34                                                              25




Network of 8,609 german Twitter users who
used political hashtags during the general
election campaign 2009 (June 18 to September 30, 2009)
Edges are directed messages (RT and @) which
contain political hashtags
 Fig. 3 Network in which removing the two most central nodes (“i” and “ j”) is not as disruptive as removing
 a different pair of nodes (“i” and “ j”) Borgatti (2010) p.39

                                                     8
Finding Key Players
Need general measure for a node’s impact on
network’s capability to transfer information
» Ortiz-Arroyo (2010):
Centrality Entropy metric (Hce)




                       9
Centrality Entropy
Calculates the entropy of a network = capacity
for information transfer (~ease of transfer)
Iteratively remove nodes and re-calculate to
determine largest impact = key players*
(KPP-NEG)

Complexity is O(n3)
*note: no optimal solution for KPP-Neg

                       10
Results
Network centrality entropy: 12.1596
The most influential node reduces entropy by ~.1
when removed (N= 8,609)
Highest entropy impact of a node in Borgatti’s
example networks: ~.1 (N=19)
Entropy impact declines rapidly (power law?)
» A small number of users can have a
disproportionally large disruptive impact

                          11
Political Tweets II
During the election campaign, users explicitly
coded party affiliations:
#party+ = positive (e.g. cdu+, spd+)
#party– = negative (e.g. cdu–, spd–)
This allows for the creation of party affiliation
profiles


                        12
User Bias
We calculated the distribution of party
evaluations for outgoing and incoming*
directed messages
A simple χ2 test was used to test for difference
of those distributions


*messages from network neighbors

                       13
Results
A majority of users with testable volume of
messages displayed a significant (p < 0.001) bias
All testable gatekeepers (top100) displayed bias

                      sig. bias         no sig. bias
 negative party
                        2,866               201
  evaluations
 positive party
                        3,835               34
  evaluations
Users with significantly differing distributions of
incoming and outgoing party evaluations. N = 8,609

                                   14
Example User
ased the network’s
ustrate the destructive    Table 2. Political bias of the Twitter account @volker_beck by
 mber of strongly and      the German politician Volker Beck (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen)
 om 5881 to 6574 and
 time, the average path                                     Outgoing2           Incoming3
                              CDU (conservatives)                0                 511
urn to the question of
                              CSU (conservatives)                0                  58
 ad in the network. In
 epers were shown to        SPD (social democrats)               0                 876
 ty in their stories in
mical selection criteria         FDP (liberals)                  0                 1,269
gard to the political         Grüne (green party)               19                 630
 and New Gatekeepers
political position more         Linke (socialists)               0                 267
ose messages that the
published or chose to         Piraten (pirate party)            10                 4,944
 ntly skewed from the
 y receive? In short, do
  around a user, or are    Of the users in the conversation network, roughly 3,000 had
ased on choices by the     enough in- and outgoing Twitter messages to statistically test for a
  allows for a precise     bias. For negative mentions of parties, 2,866 users had a
                           significant bias (p < .001) while a mere 201 users did not exhibit a
                           significant bias. It should be noted that a bias could be identified
                                                             15
rs coded their Twitter
Takeaways

The network of political conversations during
the general election campaign 2009 was
dominated by a small number of key users
which functioned as critical relays within the
network



                       16
Takeaways


In their tweets, these key users did not mirror
their network environment but instead
exhibited an individual political bias




                       17
Takeaways


The visibility of political information on twitter
is critically dependent on the network
structure




                        18
Thank you for your                                                                                             (early morning)


attention!
Key References
Bakshy, E, Hofman, J. M., Mason, W. A., and Watts, D. J. 2011. Everyone’s an Influencer: Quantifying Influence on Twitter. Proceedings of
the Fourth International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining (Hong Kong, China, February 09 – 12, 2011). WSDM 2011.
Borgatti, S. P.,2005. Centrality and network flow. Social Networks 27, 55-71. DOI - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socnet.2004.11.008.
Borgatti, S. P. 2006. Identifying sets of key players in a social network. Computational & Mathematical Organization Theory 12 (1),
21-34. DOI- http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10588-006-7084-x.
Cha, M., Haddadi, H., Benevenuto, F., and Gummadi, K. P. 2010. Measuring User Influence in Twitter: The Million Follower Fallacy. In
Proceedings of the Fourth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (Washington, DC, May 23 – 26, 2010).
ICWSM. AAAI Press, Menlo Park, CA, 10-17.
Jungherr, A., Jürgens, P., and Schoen, H., 2012. Why the Pirate Party Won the German Election of 2009 or The Trouble With
Predictions: A Response to Tumasjan, A., Sprenger, T. O., Sander, P. G., & Welpe, I. M. ‘Predicting Elections With Twitter: What 140
Characters Reveal About Political Sentiment’. Social Science Computer Review. Forthcoming. DOI- http://dx.doi.org/
10.1177/0894439311404119.
Jürgens, P., and Jungherr, A. 2011. Wahlkampf vom Sofa aus: Twitter im Bundestagswahlkampf 2009. In: Schweitzer, E. J., and Albrecht, S.
(eds.). Das Internet im Wahlkampf: Analysen zur Bundestagswahl 2009.VS-Verlag, Wiesbaden, 201-225. DOI- http://dx.doi.org/
10.1007/978-3-531-92853- 1_8.
Ortiz-Arroyo, D. 2010. Discovering Sets of Key Players in Social Networks. In: Abraham, A., Hassanien, A.-E., and Snásel ,V. (eds.).
Computational Social Network Analysis. Springer Verlag, Dordrecht et al., 27-46. DOI- http://dx.doi.org/
10.1007/978-1-84882-229-0_2.
Shannon, C.E. 1948. A mathematical theory of communication. The Bell System Technical Journal 27, 379– 423, 623–656.
Watts, D. J., and Strogatz, S. H. 1998. Collective dynamics of ‘small-world‘ networks. Nature 393, 440-442. DOI- http://dx.doi.org/
10.1038/30918.


                                                                    19

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Small Worlds With a Difference: New Gatekeepers and the Filtering of Political Information on Twitter

  • 1. Small Worlds with a Difference New Gatekeepers and the Filtering of Political Information on Twitter full paper at the websci repository Pascal Jürgens Andreas Jungherr Harald Schoen University of Bamberg University of Bamberg University of Mainz andreas.jungherr harald.schoen pascal.juergens@uni-mainz.de @uni-bamberg.de @uni-bamberg.de 1
  • 2. Political Tweets (German general election 2009) “Ihr werdet euch noch wünschen wir wären Politikverdrossen [sic!].” – Max Winde (@343max) rough translation: “Soon you’ll be wishing we were through with politics” 2
  • 3. A Political Question Assuming that … the web is a considerable source for political information each user only perceives a selection of this information facts and opinions have the potential to influence recipients and journalists Q: what forces influence the visibility of information? 3
  • 4. Old Answer Journalists as gatekeepers vs Recipients as selective readers (“Uses & Gratifications”) 4
  • 5. New Environment Networked Information Relevant – social networking sites see immense growth in adoption New paradigms – real-time, recommended many-to-many communication Perceived information varies, selection is distributed Old answers neglect network effects in the process 5
  • 6. What We Know Social networks tend to exhibit small world properties (so do networks of political communication on twitter) Information flows fast and networks are relatively resistant to (random) disruptions Information should be able to move unencumbered 6
  • 7. The Problems Contagion model of information spread Links can be substituted But: Almost everyone has almost no friends (power law), key players have dominant role Information relay via key players Non-Random removal! Problem moves from contagion to disruption (Borgatti’s KPP-Neg problem) 7
  • 8. Impact of Key Player Removal Comput Math Organiz Theor (2006) 12: 21–34 25 Fig. 3 Network in which removing the two most central nodes (“i” and “ j”) is not as disruptive as removing a different pair of nodes (“i” and “ j”) Borgatti (2010) p.39 8
  • 9. Impact of Key Player Removal Comput Math Organiz Theor (2006) 12: 21–34 25 Fig. 3 Network in which removing the two most central nodes (“i” and “ j”) is not as disruptive as removing a different pair of nodes (“i” and “ j”) Borgatti (2010) p.39 8
  • 10. Impact of Key Player Removal Comput Math Organiz Theor (2006) 12: 21–34 25 Network of 8,609 german Twitter users who used political hashtags during the general election campaign 2009 (June 18 to September 30, 2009) Edges are directed messages (RT and @) which contain political hashtags Fig. 3 Network in which removing the two most central nodes (“i” and “ j”) is not as disruptive as removing a different pair of nodes (“i” and “ j”) Borgatti (2010) p.39 8
  • 11. Finding Key Players Need general measure for a node’s impact on network’s capability to transfer information » Ortiz-Arroyo (2010): Centrality Entropy metric (Hce) 9
  • 12. Centrality Entropy Calculates the entropy of a network = capacity for information transfer (~ease of transfer) Iteratively remove nodes and re-calculate to determine largest impact = key players* (KPP-NEG) Complexity is O(n3) *note: no optimal solution for KPP-Neg 10
  • 13. Results Network centrality entropy: 12.1596 The most influential node reduces entropy by ~.1 when removed (N= 8,609) Highest entropy impact of a node in Borgatti’s example networks: ~.1 (N=19) Entropy impact declines rapidly (power law?) » A small number of users can have a disproportionally large disruptive impact 11
  • 14. Political Tweets II During the election campaign, users explicitly coded party affiliations: #party+ = positive (e.g. cdu+, spd+) #party– = negative (e.g. cdu–, spd–) This allows for the creation of party affiliation profiles 12
  • 15. User Bias We calculated the distribution of party evaluations for outgoing and incoming* directed messages A simple χ2 test was used to test for difference of those distributions *messages from network neighbors 13
  • 16. Results A majority of users with testable volume of messages displayed a significant (p < 0.001) bias All testable gatekeepers (top100) displayed bias sig. bias no sig. bias negative party 2,866 201 evaluations positive party 3,835 34 evaluations Users with significantly differing distributions of incoming and outgoing party evaluations. N = 8,609 14
  • 17. Example User ased the network’s ustrate the destructive Table 2. Political bias of the Twitter account @volker_beck by mber of strongly and the German politician Volker Beck (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) om 5881 to 6574 and time, the average path Outgoing2 Incoming3 CDU (conservatives) 0 511 urn to the question of CSU (conservatives) 0 58 ad in the network. In epers were shown to SPD (social democrats) 0 876 ty in their stories in mical selection criteria FDP (liberals) 0 1,269 gard to the political Grüne (green party) 19 630 and New Gatekeepers political position more Linke (socialists) 0 267 ose messages that the published or chose to Piraten (pirate party) 10 4,944 ntly skewed from the y receive? In short, do around a user, or are Of the users in the conversation network, roughly 3,000 had ased on choices by the enough in- and outgoing Twitter messages to statistically test for a allows for a precise bias. For negative mentions of parties, 2,866 users had a significant bias (p < .001) while a mere 201 users did not exhibit a significant bias. It should be noted that a bias could be identified 15 rs coded their Twitter
  • 18. Takeaways The network of political conversations during the general election campaign 2009 was dominated by a small number of key users which functioned as critical relays within the network 16
  • 19. Takeaways In their tweets, these key users did not mirror their network environment but instead exhibited an individual political bias 17
  • 20. Takeaways The visibility of political information on twitter is critically dependent on the network structure 18
  • 21. Thank you for your (early morning) attention! Key References Bakshy, E, Hofman, J. M., Mason, W. A., and Watts, D. J. 2011. Everyone’s an Influencer: Quantifying Influence on Twitter. Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining (Hong Kong, China, February 09 – 12, 2011). WSDM 2011. Borgatti, S. P.,2005. Centrality and network flow. Social Networks 27, 55-71. DOI - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socnet.2004.11.008. Borgatti, S. P. 2006. Identifying sets of key players in a social network. Computational & Mathematical Organization Theory 12 (1), 21-34. DOI- http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10588-006-7084-x. Cha, M., Haddadi, H., Benevenuto, F., and Gummadi, K. P. 2010. Measuring User Influence in Twitter: The Million Follower Fallacy. In Proceedings of the Fourth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (Washington, DC, May 23 – 26, 2010). ICWSM. AAAI Press, Menlo Park, CA, 10-17. Jungherr, A., Jürgens, P., and Schoen, H., 2012. Why the Pirate Party Won the German Election of 2009 or The Trouble With Predictions: A Response to Tumasjan, A., Sprenger, T. O., Sander, P. G., & Welpe, I. M. ‘Predicting Elections With Twitter: What 140 Characters Reveal About Political Sentiment’. Social Science Computer Review. Forthcoming. DOI- http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1177/0894439311404119. Jürgens, P., and Jungherr, A. 2011. Wahlkampf vom Sofa aus: Twitter im Bundestagswahlkampf 2009. In: Schweitzer, E. J., and Albrecht, S. (eds.). Das Internet im Wahlkampf: Analysen zur Bundestagswahl 2009.VS-Verlag, Wiesbaden, 201-225. DOI- http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1007/978-3-531-92853- 1_8. Ortiz-Arroyo, D. 2010. Discovering Sets of Key Players in Social Networks. In: Abraham, A., Hassanien, A.-E., and Snásel ,V. (eds.). Computational Social Network Analysis. Springer Verlag, Dordrecht et al., 27-46. DOI- http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1007/978-1-84882-229-0_2. Shannon, C.E. 1948. A mathematical theory of communication. The Bell System Technical Journal 27, 379– 423, 623–656. Watts, D. J., and Strogatz, S. H. 1998. Collective dynamics of ‘small-world‘ networks. Nature 393, 440-442. DOI- http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1038/30918. 19