The oldest known cave art is that of Chauvet in France; 35,000 years old.Martin Luther; The Castle Church in Wittenberg, Germany; 1517Thomas Paine,Published in 1776, Common Sense, sold 120,000 copies in the first three months, 500,000 in the first year;13 colonies was just around 2.5 million widely dispersed citizens.
Dawn of the Web: PCs cost $2500. Wire your home.Subscribe: $200 monthly bill; back when Big Mac was $2.43, not $3.80 like now.Confusing OS.
1995: Amazon.com launched online; Jeff Bezos ran from garage. B&N took 2 more years and still didn’t match the suite of services and ecommerce offered by Amazon.Jeff Bezos: #13 on Forbes 400; 13th richest person in the US.BTW, Amazone took six years to turn a profit. How many of your firms willing to make a six-year bet and stay patient?Also the year Amazon.com launched online; Jeff Bezos ran from garage.http://www.tranquileye.com/cyber/index.htmlhttp://www.gaia.com/quotes/jeff_bezos
So what does history tell us?Natural – 3 things: Humans gravitate to tools that help us gather and share more info more easily--Helps us to recognize what is next; Stop scaring people with “new”It’s not about tech; it’s about human needs – Don’t remember who made church door, print press. AOL/Prodigy/Compuserve gone. Atari, Amiga, Compaq, General Electric, Honeywell, RCA, Tandy, Xerox, Wang. Soon we won’t remember Borders.
WorkSchoolClose FriendsDirty jokesGlee
What does this tell us?Social media is just getting started.Like, post, poke, comment.New tools from Google for richer circles.New tools from Facebook for identifying relationships. But the future can’t have us creating and maintaining circles or even identifying our specific relationships with every item in the world.
It’s businessJosh Bernoff: Social media – “Pull out the checkbook.”Me: Social Media – “A true medium where business is conducted in new ways.”
In 1995 when Web went commercial it looked like this.Soon retailers took notice and launched information sites. Best Buy 1996 with no ecommerce.1999 Napster launched and started a wave that undermined the entire music industry.2005 Skype launches and threatens phone companies; Youtube launches & threatens TV.0% in 1999 to 4.6% in 2011 of retail sales.Ebooks make up 20% of Random House sales and 12% of HarperCollins. Did more than just change how we sell—hire, train, customer service, research, marketing, advertising, PR, product development—Changed everything. Source: http://www.census.gov/retail/#ecommercehttp://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/20/report-digital-music-sales-starting-to-slow/http://paidcontent.org/article/419-wileys-professionaltrade-e-book-revenues-triple-to-make-up-11-of-sales/
Across the U.S., Canada, and Western Europe, average person uses car just 8% of time – second largest asset for many. There is no “they.”The average person using RelayRides makes $250 a month renting.http://www.flickr.com/photos/andrewcurrie/2614344601/
Cigarettes were good for you. Prevented throat irritation; doctors & nurses smoked; Cigarette companies advertised their labs.Lysol was an effective feminine hygiene product. Advertised this way for two or three decades, even suggested as a birth control method.1955 ad from 7 up says “7-up is so pure, so wholesome, you can even give it to babies and feel good about it.”Suntanning products were repeatedly advertised as healthy and tans were routine portrayed as healthy until the 1980s.
We could talk about United Breaks Guitars – 11 million views on Youtube and counting. Changed United policies and training.Could talk about Motrin moms; launched a video on their home page on a Friday and by Monday it was a crisis.Could talk about Gap, tried to launch a new logo and reversed the decision in a week in the face of a wave of criticism.Those are old—let’s look at Mattel. This past June, Greenpeace launched a protest against Mattel, claiming its packaging contributed to rainforest deforestation. Greenpeace protesters hung a banner on the Mattel HQ and launched a YouTube video featuring Ken splitting up with Barbie. Mattel temporarily closed down the comment function on its Facebook page, before later posting a direct reply, and announcing a change in its supply chain.
12/06: 2007 person of the yearInternet brought many changes that were welcome, but some were not.To date we’ve embraced social sharing—but what comes next?Compare to Paparazzi Radical part.http://www.flickr.com/photos/georgenell/2878798584/http://www.flickr.com/photos/james2k11/6052356538/
Not just because of Facebook, Google, Claritas, Equifax, Visa, or DoubleClick…Emily J – AirBnB – rented to DJ Pattrson – house destoyed; rifled drawers; locked closet door with a hole smashed through it; shoes and clothes strewn about and worn; filthy soot covering all surfaces, thanks to sheets being burned in the fireplace with the flue closed; bleach dumped on the bed, kitchen counters, wood furniture and everywhere else; birth certificate and social security card had been found and apparently photocopied, using Emily's own printer/copier.Small market.Could consider 3rd & beyond. Could expand your network. What’s missing?Different than past—not because big companies force us but because we force each other.http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics
What kills trust quicker than anything else?Secrecy? Dating: Friends you didn’t know they had. Private social graphs.Marriage: Where your spouse is? Private location. Job hunters: Blank resume?Employment: Start closing the door and talking on their cell phone a lot: Private communications.Just the start. Rent my car? Driving recordLend my money? Credit scoreWhat else?Who do you rent to? Who would you give a better price to? Would you rather rent with someone who makes their credit score public or onw who doesn’t? Who would you employ?I’d never do that! Four years ago you wouldn’t have shared every thought; every friend; every place you visit. The trends are already in place.http://www.flickr.com/photos/danielmorris/2852225743/
Eric Schmidt, Google CEOhttp://www.wsws.org/articles/2010/jun2010/pace-j30.shtml
Creepy? People use to say they’d never trust flying machines—almost 1B passenger miles in past 12 months; they’d never trust mechanical implants - 3 million have implanted pacemakers’; Race is on for crash-avoidant cars where computer replace slow, sluggish humans in key moments. Volvo already has car on road that reduces property damage claims 27% & bodily injury claims 51%.
Is there room for only one great restaurant on this street and all the others die?No—Focus on an audience need and be best at something. Doesn’t mean marketing is dead—just means you no longer create your brand through advertising but experiences.
So what does it mean?Facebook: 1.3M yearsSpam filters: Facebook edgerank; twitter listsBubble: AirBNB has $10M review, $1B valuation; LinkedIn has $15M revenue and a $7B valuation. GroupOn lost $413M in 2010, valued at $30B.Amazon lost 94% of its value from 1999 to 2001, but in the past decadethe Dow Jones is up just 10% while Amazon stock is up over 1,000%.
Changes are nowhere near through. Some will be painful. Marketing cannot save an inauthentic brand. Does no good to produce sales today but harm the brand for tomorrow. Today’s arm’s race for the most fans may actually hurt brands.Opportunities and challenges arrive in real time. Three-year planning cycle?
The Future of Social Media Augie RayExecutive Director of Community and Collaboration
Agenda How to see the future Three trends for the future
2 ways to see the future Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/gerlos/3119891607/
First, look to the past Social Media is not new
First, look to the past People will overcome barriers to communicate more widely & easily
First, look to the past Those who succeed focus on human needs, not technology $19.1B “If there’s one reason we have done better than of our peers over the last six years, it is because we have focused like a laser on customer experience, and that really does matter... It certainly matters online, where word of mouth is so very, very powerful.” $2.2M $740M B&N Borders Bezos
Social Media is not new Social media is a natural evolution of human communication.
Look to real world Our relationships with things are rich
Look to real world Our relationships with people are richer
Look to real world Social media is very, very nascent.
Agenda How to see the future Three trends for the future
The future of social media isn’t media. Trend #1 Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevendepolo/5939056364/
The future of social media is business The Web started as media but became much more. 4.6% 2011 1999 0% 12 - 20% 29%
The future of social media is business Sharing economy is about to explode Old They: Sell You: Buy & Own New They: Own You: Rent Future You: Own & Rent
The future of social media is business Sharing economy is about to explode
Peer-to-peer financial lending: $5 billion by 2013
"If the people formerly known as consumers begin consuming 10% less and peering 10% more, the effect on margins of traditional corporations is going to be disproportionately greater. which means certain industries have to rewire themselves, or prepare to sink into the quicksand of the past.” - UmairHaque, The New Capitalist Manifesto, Harvard Business Press The Sharing Economy http://bit.ly/SharingEcon
The future is radically transparent. Trend #2 Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/horiavarlan/4271993021/
The future is radically transparent The age of mass media was opaque
The future is radically transparent Social media is forcing transparency on companies
The future is serendipitous. Trend #3 Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/valeriebb/3488188022/
The future is serendipitous Your device can present results before you even think to search for them “Think of it as a new way of thinking about traditional text search where you don’t even have to type. What we're really doing is building an augmented version of humanity, building computers to help humans do the things they don't do well better.”
The future is serendipitous It’s only creepy until it’s not
The future is serendipitous Components include hardware, software and your data Mobile Tech Where & When Who You’re With Others’ Ratings Your Past Ratings Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/chilledsalad/2110496081/ Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ishootforaliving/4650238566/ Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/littlelila/5399533272/ Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/gabofr/1351172748/
The future is serendipitous How it works Rated Highest? Best for kids? Best fish? Best service? Best value? Most romantic? Rated best by people like me? Where are my friends? Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/34128007@N04/4680734683/
The future is serendipitous How it works Rated Highest? Most romantic? Rated best by people like me?
The future is serendipitous How it works Best for kids? Best value? Where are my friends?
The future is serendipitous How it works Best fish? Best service? Best value?
The future is serendipitous Death of “The Big Idea” Long live the Big Reality The Big Idea Is Dead Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/fdecomite/2357432848/ Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nikonfilm35/4209619566/
Summary The future of social media isn’t media, it’s business. The future is radically transparent. The future is serendipitous. It’s Facebook’s world, we just live in it. Growth of social media spam filters. The coming social media bubble burst Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/eleaf/2536358399/
What Does it Mean Profound changes are coming in how we live and conduct business. Advertising can boost brands that furnish great talkable experiences and build trust but cannot save brands that don’t. ROI only matters in the long term; balance financial measures with brand and risk. It isn’t the size but the strength of your social graph that matters. Business is agile and must conducted in real time.
Augie Ray@augierayhttp://ExperienceTheBlog.com Thank you