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Keynote pohl Presentation Transcript

  • 1. 1 © Prof. Dr. Klaus Pohl ©paluno Cockpits: Real-time Monitoring and Adaptation of Future Internet Applications Prof. Dr. Klaus Pohl CAiSE – June, 2013 ©paluno 2 paluno The Ruhr Institute for Software Technology 2 www.paluno.uni-due.dewww.paluno.uni-due.de ©paluno 1. The Future Internet 2. Use Cases & Cockpits 3. Pro-Active Responsiveness 4. Summary Agenda ©paluno Focusing on infrastructure and communication, i.e., worldwide connectivity, bandwidth, speed, … e.g., e‐mail, gopher, WWW, … 1990 …  Access to contents and information from  everywhere and by everyone e.g., Google, Yahoo, youtube, facebook, … 2000 … The Internet connects the world…
  • 2. 2 © Prof. Dr. Klaus Pohl ©paluno The Internet in 2010 Internet of Services Internet of Things Internet of Content NEW NEW ©paluno Internet of Services 6 • Globally accessible software functions (services) • IT-mediated access to human-provided capabilities • Servicification of products • Cloud services • Cross-organizational alignment of IT systems • Value-add services through seamless composition and integration • … ©paluno Internet of Services Growth 7 Source: S. Ried und H. Kisker, „Sizing the Cloud“, Forrester Research, Inc., Apr. 2011., p. 9 Public Cloud Market Size 2020 $160 Billion $20 Billion 2011 Infrastructure as a Service: Compute, Storage, Network Platforms as a Service Applications/ Software as a Service Business Processes / Workflows as a Service ©paluno Internet of Things 8 • Network connected devices “connecting the world to the Internet” • Digitization of real-world through connected sensors and actuators • Uniquely identifiable objects Sources: data-directions.com; xively; DHL
  • 3. 3 © Prof. Dr. Klaus Pohl ©paluno Internet of Things Growth 9Sources: GSMA und Machina Research, „The Connected Life: A USD4.5 trillion global impact in 2020“, GSMA, Feb. 2012., p. 3 Internet-connected Devices 24 Billion (50% of which mobile) 9 Billion 2011 2020 (Smart-)Phones Connected Things / Sensors / Actuators ©paluno Smart Energy E ‐ Mobility Enabler for novel types of  software‐intensive systems: Future Internet Applications Logistics E ‐ Health The Future Internet Convergence of Services and Things Internet of Services Internet of Things Internet of Content Future Internet ©paluno On-demand Garbage Transport Future Internet Applications Example Energy reduction: 20% (estimated) [urbiotica.com] ©paluno 12 Future Internet Applications Example Water reduction: 60% (estimated) Smart Watering Source: urbiotica
  • 4. 4 © Prof. Dr. Klaus Pohl ©paluno FP7 IP  Operational Trustworthiness  Enabling Technologies FP7 IP  FI PPP  Core Platform  FP7 IP  Global Transport  and Logistics  (FI PPP Phase 1) 13 Future Internet FP7 projects @ paluno FP7 IP  AgriFood, Transport  and Logistics  (FI PPP Phase 2) FP 7 NoE Secure Software Services & Systems FP7 STREP Safe Wireless High  Mobility Industrial  Systems FP7 STREP Adaptive Middleware for  Autonomous Services FP7 STREP Electricity and  Monitoring  System FP7 STREP Pervasive Computing  in Embedded  Systems FP7 STREP Smart Grid Key  Neighborhood Indicator Cockpit FP7 IP Platform for Heterogeneous  Networked Cooperating Objects FP 7 NoE Software, Services & Systems  FP 7 NoE Cooperating Objects ©paluno 1. The Future Internet 2. Use Cases & Cockpits 3. Pro-Active Responsiveness 4. Summary Agenda ©paluno Facts: Duration: 04/11 – 03/14 Total cost: 54 Million EUR Facts: Duration: 04/11 – 03/14 Total cost: 54 Million EUR Platform for cost-effective creation and delivery of services, providing high QoS and security The Future Internet FI-WARE Core Platform ©paluno TrustandSecurity Functionality Apps & Services Internet of Things Data & Context Cloud Interface to Network & Devices FI- CoDE (Tools) FI-WARE Generic Enablers VM Management GE Service Marketplace GE VM Management GE IoT Broker GE VM Management GE VM Management GE VM Management GE Online Testing GE VM Management GE Cloud Proxy GE VM Management GE BigData Analysis GE Security & Trust VM Management GE Identity Management GE > 30 GEs: http://catalogue.fi-ware.eu/ > 30 GEs: http://catalogue.fi-ware.eu/
  • 5. 5 © Prof. Dr. Klaus Pohl ©paluno 17 Future Internet Public Private Partnership FI-WARE Expansion of Use Cases FIspace FITMAN XIFI INFINITY ENVIROFI 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Phase 3 (Expansion)Phase 1 (Use Cases) Phase 2 (Trials) FI-CONTENT OUTSMART SAFECITY FINSENY SMARTAGRIFOOD INSTANT MOBILITY FINEST TF Extension and Usage FI-CONTENT 2 Finesce FI-STAR Technical Coordinator Research Partner (1 of 5) Technical Architect ©paluno FP 7 IP FInest Use of Generic Enablers • 4 GEs integrated into the proof-of-concepts (demos) • 15 GEs considered for FInest technical specification 18 www.finest-ppp.euwww.finest-ppp.eu ©paluno Future Internet Applications Logistic Use Cases 1 4 3 5 2 6 8 7 Farming in the Cloud 1. Crop Protection Information Sharing 2. Greenhouse Management & Control Perishable Goods Logistics 3. Fish Distribution and (Re-)Planning 4. Fruit & Vegetables Quality Assurance 5. Flowers/Plants Supply Chain Monitoring Distribution & Consumption 6. Meat Information Provenance 7. Import & Export of Consumer Goods 8. Tailored Information for Consumers Robust Transport Chains 8. Parcel and package pre-run 9. Multi-modal container transport 8 9 ©paluno • Common solution for specific application areas, e.g., • Emergency • Disaster management • Chemical plants • Production automation • Human-in-the-Loop • Monitoring • Analysis • Decision-making • Adaptation (execution of) Monitoring & Adapting Operational Processes Cockpits and Control Centres Sources: npc.org, parabolicarc 20
  • 6. 6 © Prof. Dr. Klaus Pohl ©paluno Cockpits for Future Internet Applications Cockpits / Control Centre P D A Sensor Effector Software Service Software Service IoS IoT 21 ©paluno Cockpits for Future Internet Applications Multi-modal Container Transport 22 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hySGKbEEsyo Monitoring Information Adaptation Guidance ©paluno Cockpits for Future Internet Applications Functional Building Blocks Future‐Internet‐Cockpit Human Operator Know- ledge Plans, Models, … Changes Past Events Alarm/ Monitor Analyze Execute Cockpit Front End IoT & IoS Gateway Info Alternatives Plan Observation Event Decision Action Adaptation Need Selection 23 Service IoS IoTMAPE LOOP Suitable Abstractions to support Human Interactions Dynamically mapping of monitoring information to Application Models 23 Incl. Predictive Capabilities Incl. Predictive Capabilities + Fault Prediction + Failure Prediction ©paluno 1. The Future Internet 2. Use Cases & Cockpits 3. Pro-Active Responsiveness 4. Summary Agenda
  • 7. 7 © Prof. Dr. Klaus Pohl ©paluno  Fault  Machine or environment (incl. third-party services) do not behave as expected  Failure  Experienced violation of requirement of service-based application  Assume that a fault is observed e.g., violation of service contract  Three possible cases  All Requirements are still valid •  no adaptation needed  Some Requirements violated + violation experienced in real world • Failure detection  reactive adaptation  Some Requirements violated, but violation not experience yet • Failure prediction  proactive adaptation 25 Future Internet Cockpits Proactive Responsiveness Source: Carlo Ghezzi; Keynote @ ServiceWace 2010, Ghent ©paluno • Reactive Adaptation • Repair/compensate failure already visible for end-user • Proactive Adaptation (Case 1) • A fault occurs and will lead to a failure? • Repair/compensate fault to prevent failure • Proactive Adaptation (Case 2)  A fault is imminent, but did not yet occur • Modify system before fault actually occurs 26 FailureFault! Fault? Failure Future Internet Cockpits Proactive Adaptation ©paluno  Time Series Prediction: extrapolate future quality based on past observation  Online Testing: complement monitoring data with testing data  Machine Learning/Data Mining: prediction models trained using historic monitoring data  Run-time Verification: formal analysis to ascertain predefined properties hold  Static Analysis: infer properties of artifact  Simulation: execute dynamic models  Predictive Event-Processing: extends complex event processing with fault/failure prediction capabilities Future Internet Cockpits Pro-Active Failure Prediction ©paluno 28 Failure Prediction Example: Predictive Complex Event Processing • Extension of Complex Event Processing Y. Engel, O. Etzion,  “Towards proactive event‐driven computing,” DEBS 2011 Fault Prediction Failure Prediction Proactive  Adaptation Monitoring
  • 8. 8 © Prof. Dr. Klaus Pohl ©paluno Use Case - Airfreight • Focus: High Shows / Low Shows • Discrepancy between booked weight and actual weight delivered • Can result in • Over-loaded flights • Under-loaded flights  Inefficient use of transport assets  Transport delays, additional transports Failure Prediction Example: Predictive Complex Event Processing ©paluno • Empirical Validation • IATA Cargo 2000 Monitoring Standard • Cargo 2000 Monitoring data of a large forwarding company • Five months of operational data • Approximately 151,000 transport processes (80% for training; 20% test data) Failure Prediction Example: Predictive Complex Event Processing Airline (Carrier) Import  Forwarder Export  Forwarder BKD PUP REW DEH FWB DOC RCS DEP ARR RCF NFD AWD DLV REH OFD POD Shipper (Customer) Consignee DEH: Truck Departure to Airline FWB: Master Airway Bill Creation DOC: Truck Arrival at Departure Airline BKD: Freight Booking by Shipper PUP: Pick up from Customer REW: Freight Received Forwarder RCS: Freight Checked in at Airline … ©paluno Results • 586 over-loaded flights 532 under-loaded flights • Predictive CEP fosters early warning Failure Prediction Example: Predictive Complex Event Processing Accuracy over-load warnings:  Precision: 99%  Recall: 70% Accuracy under-load warnings:  Precision: 80%,  Recall: 95% Z. Feldmann, F. Fournier, R. Franklin, and A. Metzger, “Proactive event processing in action: A case study on the proactive management of transport processes,” DEBS 2013 Mean Warning time: 58 hours (before departure) ©paluno 1. The Future Internet 2. Use Cases & Cockpits 3. Pro-Active Responsiveness 4. Summary Agenda
  • 9. 9 © Prof. Dr. Klaus Pohl ©paluno Future‐Internet‐Cockpit Cockpits: Real-time Monitoring and Adaptation of Future Internet Applications Know- ledge Plans, Models, … Changes Past Events Alarm/ Monitor Analyze Execute Cockpit Front End IoT & IoS Gateway Info Alternatives Plan Observation Event Decision Action Adaptation Need Selection 33 Service IoS IoT 33 + Fault Prediction + Failure Prediction ©paluno 34 Challenges for Future Internet Applications High Complexity Source: L. Northrop, Keynote, ICSE 2013 ©paluno  Ultra Large Scale Systems  Cyber Physical Systems  Socio-technical Systems Challenges for Future Internet Applications High Complexity Sources: umd.edu; Acatech; libelium Smart Grids Multimodal Transport Smart Cities ©paluno Sources: NESSI; IFIP; Forester 2020 $160 Billion $20 Billion 2011 Challenges for Future Internet Applications Servicification of Products  Physical goods and products are  Enhanced and extended by services  Even fully turned into services, e.g., car sharing, washing-machine-as-a- service, drilling-as-a-service, …  Immaterial products  Business processes (BPaaS)  Software (SaaS)  Platforms (PaaS)  Infrastructure (IaaS)  Content/Data (CaaS, DaaS)  …
  • 10. 10 © Prof. Dr. Klaus Pohl ©paluno 37 Data Flood (Tsunami) Contents, Media, Documents Source: IDC´s Digital Universe Study, sponsored by EMC, December 2012 Global Data Volume 2020 2011 40.000 Exabyte 1.000 Exabyte • 1 Exabyte = 1 million Terabyte = 12 stacks of books from earth to Sun • 4.000 Exabyte = 160 stacks of books from earth to Pluto  Basically all this information has been produced in the last 20 years ©paluno 38 Challenges for Future Internet Applications Fast-paced Technology and Societal Changes Sources: facebook, Ben Foster; dreamgrow.com 2004 2011 900 Million Launch of Facebook March 2013 # of Users 1.11 billion March 2013 # of Users 1.11 billion ©paluno 39 Challenges for Future Internet Applications Fast-paced Technology and Societal Changes ©paluno 40 Summary – Radical Change / Revolution
  • 11. 11 © Prof. Dr. Klaus Pohl ©paluno Further Information: www.paluno.eu www.sse.uni-due.de