allen vasconcelos 2050 simulator edp

338 views
251 views

Published on

Presentation GREATLX Conference

allen vasconcelos 2050 simulator by edp

Published in: Education, Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
338
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
7
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

allen vasconcelos 2050 simulator edp

  1. 1. Initiative GREAT European Development Partners Co-organization 2050 Simulator Do you Accept this Challenge for Portugal? Allen VASCONCELOS
  2. 2. 2050 Simulator Portuguese case Allen Vasconcelos Energy Planning Department
  3. 3. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013 The 2050 simulator is a simplified model of reality. The objective of this exercise is simply to convey, in a intuitive and educational form, the key variables of the energy sector and the way to reach its decarbonization. As a consequence, the simulator’s results should not be interpreted as exact estimations, and they do not necessarily represent EDP’s vision regarding the Energy Policy options that should be taken in the 2050 timeframe. Disclaimer 3
  4. 4. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013 Question categories selector (Prices, Demand, Generation and Emissions) Answer switch (Bottom – BaU Top - disruptive) Chart legend Outputs selector (charts/tables) Output charts/tables Menu Language selector Horizontal scroll for additional questions Emissions barometer (2050 emissions vs. 1990) The 2050 simulator allows users to view the energy sector's evolution given their forecast about future technology adoption and consumption behaviors Your decisions 4
  5. 5. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013 The path definition consists in answering 32 questions about energy prices, demand and supply evolution, and GHG emissions Question categories Area Question Units Answer Question description Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Prices Fuels Oil price $'10/bbl 50 130 200 n.d. Oil price by 2050 Fuels Coal price $'10/ton 50 110 200 n.d. Coal price by 2050 Fuels Natural gas price $'10/Mbtu 5 11 20 n.d. Natural gas prices by 2050 Other CO2 price €'10/ton 20 100 200 n.d. CO2 price by 2050 Demand Growth Residential Residential non-power energy demand % 2% 1% 0% -1% Residential current non-power energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 CAGR Residential Residential energy efficiency in electricity % 0% 25% 50% 100% Degree of fulfillment of energy efficiency potential to reduce residential power demand by 2050 Services Services non-power energy demand % 2% 1% 0% -1% Services current non-power energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 CAGR Services Services energy efficiency in electricity % 0% 25% 50% 100% Degree of fulfillment of energy efficiency potential to reduce services power demand by 2050 Industry Industrial demand % 2% 1% 0% -1% Industrial energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 CAGR Transport Road transports demand % 10% 5% -5% -10% Road transportation energy consumption evolution by 2050 vs. 2010 Fuel Switching Residential Electrification of residential energy demand % 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of residential energy demand electrification by 2050 Services Electrification of services energy demand % 60% 70% 85% 100% Percentage of services energy demand electrification by 2050 Industry Electrification of industrial energy demand % 25% 30% 40% 50% Percentage of industrial energy demand electrification by 2050 Transport Electrification of road light transports % 10% 25% 50% 75% Percentage of road electric transports by 2050 Transport Fuel switching of road transports % 10% 25% 50% 75% Percentage fuel switching from oil to gas/biofuel of road non-electric transports by 2050 Transport Electrification of non-road transports % 10% 20% 30% 40% Percentage of non-road electric transports by 2050 Transport Fuel switching of non-road transports % 10% 25% 50% 75% Percentage fuel switching from oil to gas/biofuel of non-road non-electric transports by 2050 Installed capacity and generation Power Hydroelectric generation TWh 18 20 22 24 Gross hydro power generation (including pumping) by 2050: current 12 TWh and expected ~20 TWh by 2020 (average hydro year) Power Nuclear power MW 0 1.600 3.200 4.800 Nuclear capacity by 2050 (0, 1, 2 or 3 nuclear power plants): no current nor expected capacity by 2020 Power Onshore wind power MW 5.500 10.000 14.000 18.000 Onshore wind capacity by 2050: current 4,400 MW and ~5,300 MW expected by 2020 Power Offshore wind power MW 50 1.000 2.500 5.000 Offshore wind capacity by 2050: current 2 MW with no additional capacity expected by 2020 Power Biomass and MSW power MW 350 1.000 2.000 3.000 Biomass and MSW capacity by 2050: current 290 MW and ~370 MW expected by 2020 Power Solar PV power MW 250 2.500 5.000 10.000 Solar PV (large scale) capacity by 2050: current 130 MW and ~180 MW expected by 2020 Power Solar CSP power MW 50 2.500 5.000 10.000 Solar CSP capacity by 2050: no current capacity but ~50 MW expected by 2020 Power Geothermal power MW 50 500 1.000 2.000 Geothermal capacity by 2050: current 30 MW with no additional capacity expected by 2020 Power Ocean power MW 50 1.000 2.000 4.000 Ocean capacity by 2050: no current capacity but ~6 MW expected by 2020 Power CHP power MW 2.000 4.000 6.500 9.000 CHP capacity by 2050: current 1,800 MW and ~2,000 MW expected by 2020 Power Distributed generation power MW 250 2.500 5.000 10.000 Distributed generation capacity by 2050 (Solar PV): current 60 MW and ~320 MW expected by 2020 Power Power imports TWh 0 5 10 20 Power imports by 2050: historical values from last 5 years range 5 - 10 TWh CO2 Emissions Power Installed CCS capacity in the power sector MW 0 2.800 4.000 5.200 CCS power capacity by 2050 (from 0 up to 5 power plants, starting operations from 2025) Industry Industrial processes with CCS % 0% 25% 50% 100% Percentage of industrial processes with CCS by 2050 (starting operations from 2025) Geosequestra tion Emissions' reduction due to geosequestration MtonCO2 0 1 2 3 CO2 geosequestration by 2050 (reducing GHG emissions from 0 to 3 Mton/year, starting operations from 2025) Your decisions: 1. Business as Usual scenario 2. Minor transformations required 3. Medium transformations necessary 4. Scenario involving major transformations (without breaking the laws of physics!) 5 groups of questions: 1. Prices 2. Demand growth 3. Fuel Switching 4. Generation technologies 5. CO2 capture 5
  6. 6. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013 The simulator allows for immediate visualization of the path impacts along several dimensions in graph or numeric format Graphic impact of resulting pathway Numerical impact of resulting pathway 2050 Outputs 6
  7. 7. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013 Energy flows output Sankey graphs Performance output Emissions vs. Cost Outputs also include energy flows and performance data Your pathway 7 Primary energies Transformation into power Final energy by sectors Most cost-efficient pathways
  8. 8. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013 Emissions vs. Cost % vs. ‘000 M€’10 Emissions vs. Difficulty % vs. % Performance graphs Electrificati on Balanced green Fossil fuels Nuclear Full efficiency Business as usual 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0 5 10 15 20 25 Cost of energy (x1000 M€’10) GHGemissionsvs.1990(%) Electrificati on Balanced green Fossil fuels Nuclear Full efficiency Business as usual 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% GHGemissionsvs.1990(%) Difficulty Level (%) The simulator includes 5 pre-defined scenarios that can be compared with the user's chosen pathway There are no right or wrong answers! Only more cost-effective ways to reduce GHG emissions 8
  9. 9. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013 Minimize the difficulty of implementation Objectives Minimize GHG emissions Minimize total cost of energy The simulator's objective function is to (1) minimize greenhouse gas emissions, (2) at the lowest cost, and (3) at the lowest difficulty level 9
  10. 10. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013 www.2050.edp.pt Do you accept this challenge? 10
  11. 11. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013 11
  12. 12. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013 Associated Partners Media Partners Sponsors GREAT European Development Partners Institutional Partners
  13. 13. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013 http://www.projectgreat.eu

×