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Psd guide docs_sept21

  1. 1. Participatory Scenario Development (PSD)Modules on Capacity Assessment and Awareness Raising on climate change in Tajikistan September 2011 Draft for TOT Livia Bizikova 1
  2. 2. Contents1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 32. Key definitions...................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Scenarios .......................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Participatory scenario development (PSD) ...................................................................... 63. PSD workshop design ....................................................................................................... 7 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Overview of the PSD workshop structure ........................................................................ 8 3.3 Detailed Description of the Sessions .............................................................................. 11 3.3.1 Opening module - Welcome and Introductions ..................................................... 11 3.3.2 Session 1: Drivers of current development and current capacities in the country/region ..................................................................................................... 13 3.3.3 Session 2: Socioeconomic and environmental trends focused on the key areas in the country .......................................................................................................... 15 3.3.4 Session 3: Identifying potential future climate impacts and needed actions and capacities in the context of the scenarios............................................................ 17 3.3.5 Session 4: Identifying potential future climate impacts and needed actions and capacities in the context of the scenarios............................................................ 194. Training sessions and workshop preparation .............................................................. 21 4.1 Preparation for the actual training .................................................................................. 21 4.2 Key budget elements ...................................................................................................... 245. Workshop reporting template ....................................................................................... 256. Appendix: Workshop agenda ........................................................................................ 27 2
  3. 3. 1. IntroductionParticipatory Scenario Approaches are being increasingly applied when developingadaptation options in different sectors and countries. For example PSD was applied in thecounty studies of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change study (EACC).1 Thepurpose of the PSD in the EACC was to help in anticipating and understanding consequencesof climate change in the context of plausible socio-economic futures with specific focus onthe most vulnerable and then identifying well-suited adaptations encompassing hard and softmeasures to reduce risks and to increase resilience of the systems within the future scenariosover different time-horizons. In this study the approach was applied to number of sectorsincluding agriculture, water management, health and trade in number of countries includingMozambique, Ghana, Vietnam and Bangladesh.Recently, PSD has been applied in the Climate Risk Management (CRM) initiative2. Here thePSD was applied at the national level to identify and prioritize climate risks and identify riskmanagement options that build on the risk and management approaches identified at the localand regional assessments and take into account national development priorities and plans.The list of applied countries included Uganda, Honduras, Kenya, Dominican Republic,Nicaragua and Niger. In most of these countries, PSD was combined with a capacity-buildingevent during which local and regional policy-makers and other stakeholders were introducedto and practiced the PSD approach. Afterwards, a number of these stakeholders hosted localand regional PSD workshops in their countries.The purpose of this document is to outline:- Basic key definitions of PSD, objectives and PSD workshops as they are suggested to be applied on Capacity Assessment and Awareness Raising on climate change in Tajikistan- Key elements of the PSD as series of sessions that could be used to deliver PSD workshops to assess capacities, needs and gaps needed to improve adaptation and resilience to climate change- Overview of key steps in preparing a PSD workshop, processing and reportingFinally, please take this document with caution. The suggested approach will beadjusted based on a consultation and a training event with a local organization inDushanbe in October 2011.1 3
  4. 4. 2. Key definitions2.1 ScenariosWhen focusing on developing adaptation responses and responses to increase adaptivecapacities and resilience to climate change, efforts may target the global, continental orcountry scale to attempt to determine the necessary resources, including overall demand fortechnologies, money and information, but it is also beneficial to investigate synergies andtrade-offs of these responses with development goals and desired development pathways sothey fit with key priorities of countries not only focused on climate change. For examplepromoting agricultural crops that are resilient to climate change, but also relevant for localdiets, markets are available to sell the harvests and technologies and information for plantingand processing are accessible for the community.Decreasing human vulnerability by adapting to climate change is a multifaceted undertaking.Challenges not only lie in the scientific projections of climate change and physical elementsof adaptation design, but also in understanding the human dimensions of climate changeimpacts, the preferred means of adaptation and the impacts’ potential unequal consequenceson societal groups. Scenario approaches can be used to assist in linking climate changeimpacts information with adaptation mechanisms at different scales by connecting them withoverall development challenges and priorities.Scenarios are neither predictions of socioeconomic development nor impacts of changingclimate; rather, they are plausible descriptions of how the future may possibly develop, usingrecognizable signals from the present and assumptions about how current trends will progress(UNEP, 2002).3 Scenarios can be used for multiple purposes, including to (Jaeger et al.,2000)4:  aid in recognition of “weak signals” of change;  avoid being caught off guard—“live the future in advance”;  challenge “mental maps”;  understand the world better and make better decisions;  raise awareness;  test strategies for robustness using “what if” questions;  provide a common language; and  stimulate discussion and creative thinking.The ultimate aim, in most cases, is to:  provide better policy or decision support; and  stimulate engagement in the process of change.In order to fully explore opportunities from scenario approaches, growing attention is beingdevoted not only to the developed scenarios, but also to the scenario development process.This includes increasing emphasis on stakeholder involvement in developing scenarios—3 UNEP (2002). Global Environment Outlook-3: past, present andfuture perspectives. Earthscan: London4 Jaeger, C.C., B. Kasemir, S. Stoll-Kleemann, D. Schibli, and U. Dahinden (2000). ‘Climate change and the voiceof the public,’ Integrated Assessment 1: 339–349 4
  5. 5. referred to as the participatory scenario development (PSD). Over the last years, a number ofarguments in favour of participation in scenario development have been developed in theliterature, where participation helps to (Patel et al., 2007; Stirling, 2006; Volkery et al.,2008)5:  support the democratic rationale for intrinsic social desirability of equity of access, empowerment of process and equality of outcome, with the aim of countering the exercise of power;  give access to practical knowledge and experience, learn about new problem perceptions and identify new challenging questions;  gather more diverse, extensive and context-specific bodies of knowledge in order to take more careful and explicit account of divergent values and interests; as such, participation is reasoned as being a means to an end rather than an end in itself;  bridge gaps between the scientific communities and governments, businesses, interest groups or citizens, thus providing a reality check for research assumptions and methodology;  improve communication between scientists and stakeholders and facilitate collaboration and consensus building on problem solving; and  increase the salience and legitimacy of the scenario and thus the acceptance among end users, which helps maintain public credibility and trust in the developed scenarios and involved institutions, thus providing for more effective implementation of decisions taken, by providing greater legitimacy and justification.To date, scenario approaches in climate change research have focused mainly on impacts andmitigation actions to identify scenarios of potential levels of greenhouse gases, based onprojections of future socioeconomic development and global emission scenarios (SpecialReport on Emissions Scenarios, or SRES) and to investigate the potential feasibility ofimplementation of different mitigation targets and actions. The Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change’s (IPCC’s) SRES provided explicit linkages between development choicesand the levels of greenhouse gases, illustrating that development decisions could considerablyalter the level of future emissions and thus climate change impacts (Nakicenovic, 2000)6. Inthe context of climate change mitigation, there increasing number of projects exploring lowemissions pathways and related policy options and choices in diverse context with number ofstakeholders including policy-makers, business and industry representatives and non-governmental organizations discussed potential scenarios of long-term options for far-reaching greenhouse gas emission reductions. Recently, Shaw et al. (2009)7 applied the PSDprocess in British Columbia, Canada, which focused on development scenarios of localfutures under different IPCC scenarios. In this context, the research team and local5 Volkery A., T. Ribeiro, T. Henrichs and Y. Hoogeveen (2008). Scenario development on a European scale. Systemic Practiceand Action Research 21: 459-477Stirling, A. (2006). Analysis, participation and power: justification and closure in participatory multi-criteria analysis. Land Use Policy 23, 95–107.Patel M., K. Kok and D. S. Rothman (2007). Participatory scenario construction in land use analysis: An insight into the experiences created by stakeholder involvement in the Northern Mediterranean. Land Use Policy 24:546–5616 Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A. et al. et al. (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. London: Cambridge University Press ( Shaw, A., S. Sheppard, S. Burch, A. Wiek, D. Flanders, S. Cohen, J. Robinson, J. Carmichael. (2009). How Futures Matter: Synthesizing, Downscaling, and Visualizing Climate Change Scenarios for Participatory Capacity-Building. Global Environmental Change 19: 447-463 5
  6. 6. stakeholders developed visualized future socioeconomic scenarios based on the IPCC SRESscenarios.Combining qualitative stakeholder and quantitative expert information (i.e., climate changeprojections and impacts) in PSD offers unique opportunities to mix good data, scientificrigor, imagination and expertise from different perspectives (Volkery et al., 2008)8.Qualitative techniques help to encourage discussion, deliberation, and exchange of thoughtsand identify different views on the available responses to climate change, based onstakeholders’ views, experiences and resources.Experiences from case studies conducted on climate change in Europe and North Americashow that to be effective in designing responses to climate change, the participatory processshould involve experts’ and policy-makers’ knowledge in creating relevant responses that arethe combination of development choices, adaptation options and capacities. Furthermore, theprocess should help to create learning opportunities for stakeholders about the impacts of achanging climate and the implications at the particular level and on particular sectors.2.2 Participatory scenario development (PSD)When identifying adaptation options to climate change, we tend to focus on respondingdirectly to climate signals and climate variability without sufficiently integrating theseresponses into overall development needs, priorities and plans. A PSD approach can be usedto strengthen the linkages between adaptation and development. PSD is a process thatinvolves the participation of stakeholders to explore the future in a creative and policy-relevant way. PSD is used to identify the effects of alternative responses to emergingchallenges, to determine how different groups of stakeholders view the range of possiblepolicy and management options available to them, and to identify appropriate public policiesand investment support necessary to facilitate effective future actions.In using a PSD approach to planning for climate change adaptation, the primary function ofthe scenarios is to provide a framework and context within which different groups ofstakeholders can better understand potential climate change impacts and consider and discussa range of possible adaptation options, as well as the forms of public policy or investmentsupport needed to facilitate effective adaptation. PSD approaches help to identify relevantpathways of autonomous and planned adaptation in the context of development choices anddecisions, while informing actors of potential trade-offs and possible consequences ofadaptation actions.8 Volkery A., T. Ribeiro, T. Henrichs and Y. Hoogeveen (2008). Scenario development on a European scale. Systemic Practice and Action Research 21: 459-477 6
  7. 7. 3. PSD workshop design3.1 IntroductionThe use of tools like PSD is a powerful means to encourage recognition of significant threats,to identify responses and to engage people in activities that can help reduce impacts andincrease resilience. Overall, the PSD process serves three main purposes in this project. Thefirst is assessing current capacities: evaluating types and extent of available capacitiesrelevant in anticipating and understanding risk from climate change. The second is strategic:discovering strategic opportunities to increase capacities and resilience that are in line withother development priorities of the country and region and/or that assist in adjustingdevelopment priorities to increase resilience. This latter purpose is, in the long run, moreimportant. The third aim is empowering: engaging key stakeholders in debate aboutconsequences of climate change and building on their knowledge to identify adaptations toalter the policies and actions in their countries and regions.Based on these aims, we define the objectives of the PSD workshops as follows: Identify key capacities available to the communities that could be used when responding to climate change impacts and their consequences Validate the priority areas listed in the PPCR/SPCR to ensure that the identified priorities are in –line with key capacities of the communities Finally, complement the identified activities in the PPCR/SPCR with further activities that are considered key form the stakeholders perspective in increasing their capacities when responding to climate change in the context of other development prioritiesPSD is usually applied in a workshop setting and it could be flexibly designed based onparticipants’ availabilities and overall preferences for participation. On average, multi-dayevents are sufficient to complete a process of scenario development and identification ofcapacities needs and gaps, climate change impacts and future priorities. The general rule isthat, as the workshop gets shorter, the scenario process tends to get less rigorous and is oftenpresented as a brief future visioning exercise. The PSD process could also be divided into anumber of shorter stakeholder meetings if the location permits.Based on the discussion with PPRC project team members, consultations with nogs and in-country partners’ recommendations during the inception workshops, the PSD will becompleted in a one and half day9 oblast-level workshop in each of the four oblasts’ ofTajikistan.9 However, the organization conducting the workshop could also consider taking more time complete theworkshop in two-days in slower pace based on their and participants’ availability. 7
  8. 8. 3.2 Overview of the PSD workshop structureThe preliminary workshop agenda aims to work from an understanding of current trends andcapacities to assess future development goals and pathways and their vulnerabilities topotential future hazards, and identify options that increase the capacities and resilience ofthese goals and pathways. Once goals and capacities are identified, they will be presented askey priorities and then assessed for their resilience. The workshop agenda includes up to fourplenary sessions with two possible presentations on current development priorities andclimate projections. The agenda times are fairly loose in order to create a buffer forunexpected events during the workshop such as a late start, longer plenary discussions ormore time required for some group exercises. But based on our experiences from previousworkshops, the allocated time for each of the sessions will be enough to accomplish all thegoals, with considerable time built in for participants’ interactions. During the workshop preparation, we discuss what type of responses we would like to getfrom the participants, for example, how specific versus generic we would want them to beand then up-date the exercises accordingly.A suggested workshop design is presented in Figure 1 and the detailed agenda is listed inAppendix 1.Figure 1. Key elements of the PDS workshopThe opening session includes welcoming of participants, introduction of the SPCR/PPCRstudy, discussion of the objectives of the workshops, and emphasis on the importance of theworkshop and of the participants’ contributions to the success of the workshop. The welcome 8
  9. 9. speech can be delivered by a member of the United Nations Development Programme(UNDP) office or another external organization, while the workshop objectives needs to bedelivered by a person trained on the workshop structure, such as the lead workshopfacilitator. During this session, participants should be introduced, possibly with a simpleicebreaker to help participants divide into groups by sector, regions, and so forth.Session 1 focuses on discussing the current situation and identifying important drivers andchallenges. In plenary discussion, we review the key changes that occurred in the country andthe key forces that initiated these changes. We focus on the key sectors identified during theinception workshop, but other issues and trends could be included if the participants feel thatthey are relevant. Here, we also try to understand the importance of climate variability andexperienced impacts on the national and regional levels. Based on experiences with pastclimate hazards and impacts, we discuss the key capacities that people have to respond to theclimate-related threats. The aim is to have a good understanding of how well people areprepared in the context of other trends. If feasible, here we also include a brief groupexercise, during which participants can briefly specify key trends for their region and alsoidentify key capacities. The participants are divided into groups (usually 3–4 groups) duringthe session or during the break. The main outcome of this session is a set of current drivers,and a few examples of past climate-related events and related capacities that people canaccess to when they need to respond to these events.Session 2 aims to develop further the list of identified drivers by looking at the range ofpossible and desired future trends. This session includes identifying future goals and thencombining them into potential future scenarios (to 2040) and developing the scenarios indetail by using the participants’ knowledge of the country/region and sectors. This includeswriting how the drivers develop in the future on a post-it note, followed by a more detaileddescription that will be typed-up by the group facilitator. Usually, each group will work on adifferent region, but two groups can also develop the same region, which increases therobustness of the results.Session 3 focuses on introducing climate change projections and then connecting the impactswith the context created by the future goals. This requires identifying potential consequencesof climate change in the context of the goals and then identifying a set of key responses thatto these impacts. A presentation about climate change, followed by a plenary discussion andgroup work, could be a part of this session. Or, instead, we could distribute a hand-out basedon the SPCR Annex 1 document on impacts and vulnerabilities (see p. 38). Having a localexpert who has been briefed about the PSD workshop do the presentation has usually workedvery well. The local expert is able to give examples of projections, examples of similar eventsfrom the recent past, institutional context and other details that participants may ask.Session 4 assesses the resilience of the system (see definitions in Table 1) by using the fourquestions listed in Table 1. The focus here is to look at the flexibility of the system and theactors who respond to climatic events, learn from their mistakes and address the potentialfailure of the system. This is important, because climate change impacts happen under variedcircumstances and require varied solutions; thus, it is important that characteristics andfactors that increase the resilience of the system and people to respond are explored. Once thegroups have identified specific goals/capacities and actions, they are asked to review themand complete them to increase the resilience of the regional system. Finally, they are asked tocreate a timeline of key actions that are needed to build a resilient system. We will compare 9
  10. 10. timelines, have a discussion about similarities and differences, and their link to PPRC/SPCRactivities in the area.Table 1. Key elements, definitions and questions of resilience, taking into account both the systems and agents operating in the system including watershed, village, landscape, city The system can shift between sources and modes of service Flexibility and delivery to meet service needs. Key assets are spatially Diversity distributed but functionally linked. There is spare capacity to accommodate demand increase or an unexpected surge in pressure on system. System components System Redundancy and and pathways provide multiple options or substitutable Resilience Modularity components for service delivery. Is there a spare capacity in the system to address potential future events? Failures in one part of the system are unlikely to compromise Safe Failure the ability of the system as a whole to deliver service What if does the system fail? Are we prepared for that? Agents are motivated and able to take timely action when required, including changes in organization or structure. Key Responsiveness functions can be restored in a timely fashion after a climate- and related shock or extreme event Re-organization Are people motivated and able to take potentially needed actions in a timely manner? Capacity of Priority actions for adaptation are identified and the necessary Agents resources mobilized for implementation. Lessons are Linked to Resourcefulness internalized and improved practices or technologies System implemented. Capacity exists to identify and anticipate problems. Lessons from past failures and feedback from users are internalized and system improvements implemented. Potential future risks are Capacity to Learn assessed on an ongoing basis. Do people have capacities to identify needed changes and revise the system based on past impacts?Source: ISET, 2011, modified10Finally, during the closing session we should inform participants how the results will beused, when and where they can access the report, and other potential future events.10 ISET (2011). Resilience indicator for 10 Asian cities. Boulder: ISET and Winnipeg: IISD, pp. 25. 10
  11. 11. 3.3 Detailed Description of the Sessions 3.3.1 Opening module - Welcome and IntroductionObjectives 1. Introduce the PPCR/SPCR project and the planned investments; this could be presented by local representatives such as the UNDP and/or consultants 2. Introduce the workshop process 3. Introduce participants and create groupsKey actions to achieve the objectives 1. Introduce the PPCR project: - Introduce the overall project, partners and key actions taken so far. - Introduce the planned activities and the planned investments that we will be working with during the workshop. - Why are we here? Emphasize the importance of the participants’ input and how they will be used in the project. - Introduce the objectives of the workshop:  Identify key capacities available to the communities that could be used when responding to climate change impacts and their consequences  Validate the priority areas listed in the PPCR/SPCR to ensure that the identified priorities are in line with key capacities of the communities  Finally, complement the identified activities in the PPCR/SPCR with further activities that, from the stakeholders perspective, are key activities to increasing their capacities when responding to climate change in the context of other development priorities - Could be done by a local UNDP representative, consultant and/or funding agency representative - In the regional workshop, the facilitators will do this introduction. 2. Introduce the workshop and the process - This type of workshop is fairly new to most of the participants, therefore they need to have a good overview about the workshop process and how they are expected to participate (group work and plenaries). - Introduce the key elements of the workshop (four sessions). - Provide a detailed overview of the agenda. - This could be done by the lead and/or co-facilitator. After these two introductions, answer questions (if any). 3. Introduce participants and create groups - The workshop is structured around group work; create these groups. - Overall it is feasible to handle 4–5 groups (fewer is better) and up 10–12 people per group. In small regional workshops, it is possible that there will only be 1 or 2 groups. 11
  12. 12. - Each group will need a facilitator and a note-taker; it is important that both have a clear idea about the workshop process and it is preferable that they have had training. Facilitator and the no-taker could easily be one person; it worked that way before - To divide participants into groups, especially during the TOT, we can use a simple map exercise where each person has two dots that they place based on:  Where they are from  The area where their current projects are located - The resulting map (see Figure 2, which uses triangles instead of dots) shows participants’ familiarity with the areas; create the groups based on common areas. - Relocate people into the groups. Materials Printed agenda, workshop scheme with the session, presentations outlining the sessions, key PPCR/SPCR goals and key sectors identified during inception workshop These could be put together as one hand-out (could include the notes from the inception workshop), map (poster size)Figure 2. Participants indicated their familiarity with a regions in Ghana by using blue and pink triangles (June, 2009) 12
  13. 13. 3.3.2 Session 1: Drivers of current development and current capacities in the country/regionObjectives 1. Shared understanding of current socioeconomic and environmental trends in the country, with a focus on the key sectors that were prioritized in the inception workshop 2. Specifying current trends for the regions and, if needed, adding other regionally relevant trends 3. Basic understating of current capacities that people can access when faced with threats, especially those related to climateKey actions 1. Shared understating of current socioeconomic and environmental trends in the country with focus also on the key sectors that were prioritized in the inception workshop - If feasible, a brief presentation by an in-country expert could be included to present key trends such population, GRP, urbanization, land-use change, agricultural production, resource extraction, health and migration. All of this information is likely not available, but what is could be presented or circulated in a 2-page handout that focuses on the strengths/weaknesses analyses done during the inception workshop and some of the materials use in the report for PPCR/SPCR. - Lead facilitator will lead a plenary discussion about key trends in the country and the regions. - Record key trends on the flipchart and make sure that information is available on the sectors that we are focusing on. 2. Specifying current trends for the regions and, if needed, adding other regionally relevant trends - In groups, discuss the specific trends in the regions; this should include looking at the trends in the major sectors that we are focusing on and also adding some regionally specific issues that the participants consider important for the particular region (for priority sectors, see Table 3). - The note-taker will record the notes to the provided tables (see Table 4). 3. Basic understating of current capacities that people can access when faced with threats, especially those related to climate - Back in plenary, discuss what capacities people have to respond to threats, especially those that are climate related. - Write down examples of capacities on the flipchart. - Consider gender difference in the available capacities. - Participants then continue working in groups and list capacities in the regions (see Table 4). 13
  14. 14. Table 3. Key regions, sectors and investments that will be explored in each of the regions (indicated by x)Oblast of Tajikistan GBAO Khatlon Sughd Districts of Republican (Pamir) Subordination (DRS)PPCR investmentsBuilding institutional capacity andawareness of climate change amongstakeholder groups (civil society,media, vulnerable groups—women,youth, young men and children)Improving the national hydro-meteorological monitoring system toprovide timely warnings ondangerous events and support watermanagementConduct climate science andglaciology research; develop climatechange modelsReplicate and scale up effectiveexisting land management practicesRehabilitate Kairakkumhydropower plant (HPP) as a pilot.Climate-proofing measures invulnerable eco-systems and criticalinfrastructure piloted in the Khatlontarget area and Pyanj tributaries.Key sectors based on the inceptionworkshopAgricultureEnergyWaterHealthNote: The table will be filled during the training in Tajikistan with the local organizationTable 4. Regional trends and capacitiesRegion Key trends Key capacitiesSector 1Sector 2…. 14
  15. 15. 3.3.3 Session 2: Socioeconomic and environmental trends focused on the key areas in the countryObjectives 1. Create future goals for desirable and plausible future development pathways for the regions to 2040 2. Understand how key sectors could change over the selected time horizon and what kind of reachable goal could be defined 3. Create a narrative that presents the goals as an integrated regional story across all the sectorsKey actions 1. Create future goals of desirable and plausible future development pathways for the regions to 2040 - Participants will review the key current trends for their region identified in the previous session. - They will use flipcharts and post-its and create a visual for the goals (see Figure 3). 2. Understand how key sectors could change over the selected time horizons and what kind of reachable goal could be defined - When identifying the goals, participants will specifically focus on the key sector and try to envision their future status. - Participants will also consider gender-specific goals if relevant. - Participants will be encouraged to connect/combine goals for sectors that are closely related, such as water and agriculture, forestry and energy, etc. - A trained facilitator in each group will help in creating these goals and will take notes during the discussion; the idea is that the goal could be written down is a short statement, but the facilitator could record more details about the goal in the provided table (see Table 5).3. Create a narrative that presents the goals as a regional story - Review the identified goals and their relationships; consider if the diverse sectorial goals fit together and if they do not, revise them. - Prepare a brief presentation (up to 10 min) about the goals and future status if the key sectors; the presentation have to be recorded by the note-takers. Ideally, a group member who is not the facilitator should present, unless the group decides to have the facilitator present. - After the presentations, a short plenary discussion on the chosen goals for different regions could be briefly discussed.Materials Participants’ hand out, post-it notes, flipcharts, markers 15
  16. 16. Figure 3. Example of identified future goals for selected key sectorsTable 5. Table for note-takingSector (fill in only those that Goal Descriptionare relevant)Agriculture 30% of land used by small holdersEnergyWaterHealthOther (if needed): 16
  17. 17. 3.3.4 Session 3: Identifying potential future climate impacts and needed actions and capacitiesObjectives 1. Understand and identify potential consequences of climate change on the goals and narrative created for the region 2. Identify available and needed capacities that are necessary to address impacts 3. Identify key additional goals/actions that are needed to address impacts of climate changeKey actions 1. Understand and identify potential consequences of climate change on the goals and narrative created for the region - To begin, information about projected climate change impacts that are relevant for the country must be provided. Ideally, that could be done by an in-country expert/researcher that works in this field. We can also create a hand-out based on the SPCR document Annex 1 on impacts and vulnerabilities (p. 38). - In the regional/oblast workshop it, would be enough if the facilitator introduces major climatic trends (use the hand-out). - Based on the provided information on climate change, participants will review the goals and identify major consequences of climate change. - We encourage participants to focus on fewer impacts and their consequences rather than dealing with too many of them, as answers tend to be very generic the more they try to address. - Facilitator/note-taker will fill out a table with key consequences of the impacts (Table 6) 2. Identify available and needed capacities that are necessary to address impacts - After consequences are identified, participants are asked to review the goals and identify specific capacities that could help to deal with the impacts. - Participants should also consider groups within the population that may not have access to the capacity (e.g., gender issues). - It could happen that the goals are resilient enough and they provide enough capacities, but it could also happen that other capacities are needed. If so, participants should list these needed capacities. - Again, here we would encourage the groups to focus only on most relevant capacities and to be specific. 3. Identify key additional goals/actions that are needed to address impacts of climate change - Based on the identified capacities, they could identify additional measures, goals, actions needed - Participants could just briefly list these additional measures, etc. Day 2 is more focused on exploring capacities, goals and resilience, but in case we do not have enough people on Day 2, we wil have some usable outcomes from Day 1. 17
  18. 18. - There will be a brief repor from the groups by a selected member from each group. - Facilitator/note-taker will fill up a table with capacities and actions/goals, which can be written on post-its notes and added the goals (Figure 4)Table 6. Key consequences of climate change and capacities Key impacts Description of Available Needed Additional the capacities capacities actions/goals/measures consequencesNote: When specifying the capacities and actions, it is perhaps better to not try to link them toeach of the impact, but rather review the consequences of the impacts and identify then needsand available capacitiesFigure 4. An illustrative example of possible outcomes of the session 18
  19. 19. 3.3.5 Session 4: Assessing resilience of the future system and identifying actionsObjective 1. Introduce the term resilience 2. Review the system for its resilience 3. Develop action/policy pathways and related actions needed to increase resilienceKey actions 1. Introduce the term resilience - Briefly describe the key components of the term resilience - Emphasize the systematic character of the term (flexibility, robustness) and also the capability for learning and change - Brief plenary discussion about the elements of the resilience 2. Review of the system for its resilience - Review the goals, needed actions and additional goals developed on Day 1. - Use the following four questions to revise the system and focus on identified needed capacities and actions/goals:  Is there spare capacity in the system to address potential future events?  What if the system fails? Are we prepared for that?  Are people motivated and able to take potentially needed actions in a timely manner?  Do people have capacities to identify needed changes and revise the system based on past impacts? - When answering the questions, think of gender, minorities and other groups, in terms of if they even have access to the resilient elements of the systems. - The facilitator will record the answers as the questions are being discussed. - Write down key additional capacity and actions/goals needs and, if needed, revise the needs from the previous day. 3. Develop action/policy pathways and related actions - Here, try to focus on goals and needs that are also related to PPCR/SPCR investments. - Select goals (up to 3) for 2040 and use the created actions, available capacities and needs to create a pathways of key short-, medium- and long-term actions (see Figure 5) - Make notes during the participants’ reporting. 19
  20. 20. Table 7. Table for recording the key questionsIs there spare capacity What if the system Are people motivated Do people havein the system to fails? Are we prepared and able to take capacities to identifyaddress potential future for that? potentially needed needed changes andevents? actions in a timely revise the system based manner? on past impacts?Figure 5. An illustrative example of action/policy pathways linked with goals 20
  21. 21. 4. Training sessions and workshop preparation4.1 Preparation for the actual trainingBased on our experiences in the previous projects, communication with the country teams isimportant to adjusting the workshop agenda and identifying key participants and necessaryinputs for the workshop. Communication with the in-country teams is also necessary to createa shared understanding of the potential results the PSD workshop could deliver. This isimportant because, although country team members often have significant experience inconducting interviews, focus groups, facilitating events and poverty appraisals, the PSDapproach is new to most of them.We would suggest holding up to 2.5 days of PSD training in the country. The length of thetraining will depend on its actual purpose. If we use the training to train regional experts sothey are able to conduct PSD workshops, then the training event will be approximately 2.5days, ideally followed by the actual TOT PSD workshop for the country, in which some ofthe trained experts will participate as group facilitators and note-takes. This will provide anopportunity for them to test their skills in practice and have a ‘learning-by-doing’ experience.Key elements of such trainings: - Introducing how the PSD approach fits with other methods applied in the PPRC/SPRC study and what types of information the teams could expect to generate by using PSD workshops. If participants are amenable, we would like to show how this approach was applied on different levels and connected to other approaches, in some countries referring to previous projects. - Reviewing the agreed workshop agenda in detail, including the steps of the PSD workshops, needed inputs and possible outcomes. We will also try to conduct a simulation of a group exercise focused specifically on the future scenario development, impacts and resilience as these sessions turned out to be the most challenging workshop activity in the countries where we previously conducted PSD workshops. - Providing advice for presenters should structure their presentations, including length and format, so the presentations will be most relevant to the workshop participants. - Reviewing how to process the workshop results, along with suggested ways of keeping records and notes during the workshops.Specific workshop preparation issuesFacilitationIn the workshop we would have two lead facilitators for workshops with more than 30participants. One is the person that outlines next steps and introduces the exercises; the otherperson floats around the room to help the groups. Sometimes we would consider havinganother facilitator from the country, but only when the person has gone through a brieftraining. Each group also need a group facilitator, who helps the group in completing thesessions. It is important that the group facilitators went through the training. 21
  22. 22. Overall, facilitating these types of workshops is fairly challenging, because the facilitatorneeds to walk the participants through a number of sessions. These sessions build on eachother, so the facilitator needs to be constantly alert and guide the participants’ progress fromone session to another. This requires repeatedly explaining the group work to participants,watching the groups if they are working on the tasks, pushing the groups (a bit) if they are tooslow and facilitating plenary discussions. Most facilitators are very good in guiding focusgroups and small sessions when what is needed most is to ensure that people have a chance tospeak, but PSD workshops are more demanding. Finally, sometimes in-country facilitatorscould feel uncomfortable interrupting or coordinating their country fellows, especially if theyare more senior, at a higher position, and so forth. Therefore, care must be taken whenselecting in-country facilitators.Identifying the presenters11In the workshop agenda there are one or two presentations. Guest speakers and presentersshould be identified and invited early. We need to ensure that presenters understand theworkshop purpose and objectives, the nature of the information we are asking them to presentand the amount of time they have to present it. Also, we need to ensure that presentersunderstand there will be time for questions from participants; ask them whether they wouldprefer that you moderate the question-and-answer session or if they would prefer to moderateit themselves. Once speakers have confirmed their attendance, their names may be includedin the agenda, which is distributed with the invitations to participants.As outlined earlier, we will probably have from 1-2 presentations:Presentation 1: Presentation provides a review of the past and current trends with focus onthe workshop theme (sector, number of sectors, national level) and also developmentpriorities, projections and uncertainties in the projections (if available)Presentation 2: Outlines climate projections for the country, presenting available climaticvariables and, if accessible, impacts on forest, water and agriculture; here we will alsoinclude a presentation on specific climate change impacts if availableIn general, presenters need to focus on results of work, socioeconomic and environmentaltrends and climate change projections. Participants do not need to know anything about(almost anything)—nor is there time available for—methodology or other interesting thingsthe speaker may be working on that are not directly relevant to helping the participantscomplete the subsequent workshop activities. We need to ensure speakers understand this isnot an academic presentation, but a presentation of a very particular subset of informationintended to focus on a very specific set of objectives.Things to consider: - The presenters can be either internal (within the facilitation team) or external (outside the facilitation team). Again, this may depend on the selected scale of the workshop. For a national level workshop, a well-regarded expert in the field may raise the profile of the workshop and help secure attendance. - Ensure that presenters are clear on what it is they are presenting, and why. The purpose for presenting is to provide participants with a summary of the current challenges facing them. The purpose for presenting on the projected impacts of11 The two presentations could be replaced by hand-out provided to the participants as a source of information 22
  23. 23. climate change is to introduce participants to the latest data and model results they might not be familiar with and to paint a picture of what the future might look like under scenarios of future climate change. - Presenters should be limited to approximately 20 minutes each presentation, to allow sufficient time for questions from participants. If presenting using Microsoft PowerPoint, a good rule of thumb is to present only half the number of slides as the presenter has minutes. For a 20-minute presentation, you may ask the speaker for no more than 15 slides summarizing the necessary information. - For the presentation on climate change in particular, presenters should conclude their presentations with one slide summarizing the expected future climate changes for the country. This list will be used in the following session on Climate Change Impacts, when participants identify which of the expected future climate changes will have the most consequences for their geographic area.Note-taking and report preparationFor the report preparation, it is important to save all the materials produced during theworkshop. This, for example, means taking the notes on the flipchart, taking the createdscenarios with the post-it notes developed in groups and also materials and visuals developedduring the plenary sessions. We often save these materials and also make high resolutionpictures so we are able to read what is on the pictures. Another source of information fromthese workshops is the information that the participants provide during group work, report-back sessions and plenary discussions. Therefore, it is crucial to take detailed notes when theparticipants report back on the outcomes of their groups’ works. This material could be usedto complement the created written material in groups, because in the written material thereare often only brief notes on the discussed issues, while the presentation provides widercontext and sometimes examples as well.This means that the facilitators should agree beforehand who will be taking notes during theplenary sessions and reporting back. We would need to also agree who will be taking notes inthe groups by using the provided tables. It could be the facilitator or another person, but it ispreferable somebody who was in the training.Finally, if the workshop is facilitated by external people, it is important to explain to them theimportance of the note-taking during the plenary/group sessions and preserving the workshopoutcomes, as these are the only outputs that they will have after the workshops to use toprepare the report. 23
  24. 24. 4.2 Key budget elementsWorkshop venue:Room rental for approximately 25–40 peopleProjector (beamer) rental (if needed)Refreshments: 2 lunches plus 4 coffee breaks per up to 25 - 40 peopleWorkshop materials:If presentations are being done then it is preferable the presentations are handed to theparticipantsBrief handout on PSD process by using the presentation that will be projected during theworkshopPost-it notes (will bring them, Livia)FlipchartMarkersFlipchart paperGlue stick, tapeCountry map (bigger, poster size)For the regional/oblast workshop things listed above will change based on the number ofparticipants and groups; very likely there will be only 1 or 2 groups. 24
  25. 25. 5. Workshop reporting templateIt is enough to list the gathered information in bullet points, but try to add as much details aspossible. Also attach the tables with the notes, pictures of flipcharts notes with post-it notes(if available) and rewritten flipchart notes and posit-it notes as Word documents or Exceltables. If participants agree please also take few pictures of them working together, talkingand presenting.Brief overview of the community(ies), in which the workshop is taking place: - Population structure - Major sources of livelihoods - Level of migration - Challenges and any interesting informationWorkshop overview: - Number of participants, their affiliation and/livelihoods - Location of the workshop - Lengths of the workshop -Session 1: - Overveiw of the current trends (if possible illustrate them by examples) try to focus on the sectors that were identified for the oblast, but be opened to other sectors if participants would like to include it - If mentioned list major climate hazards experiences (and other hazards if listed) - Gender aspects - List and discuss major capacities that people use to cope with these threats – provide examples of how the capacity was used to cope with the threat - Include notes in tablesSession 2: - Introduce the key SPCR/PPCR investments that are relevant for the oblast - List goals and illustrate them what they mean in the context of the region/oblast - Record synergies, conflicts between the goals - Record how participants are describing the goals (narrative) - Save the tables with notesSession 3: - List and describe impacts that were discussed with participants - List and describe consequences of the impacts that were discussed with participants - List and describe available and needed capacities – please try to be specific about both groups - Consider gender-specific examples - Described identified needed actions and revised goals - Save the tables and produced materials Session 4: - Record key conclusions of the resilience review of the system (question by question) 25
  26. 26. - Rewrite the pathway by indicating the goals and actions and add arrows if people use to connect them (as it is presented in Figure 6)Conclusions: - In bullet points please list the key issues in each of the oblasts - Provide conclusions about specific actions that could be linked to the PPCR investment in the area - Mention any other important issues relevant for the context of this project that came up during the workshops 26
  27. 27. - 6. Appendix: Workshop agenda Participatory Scenario development workshop AgendaLogosDate and PlaceWorkshop title Day 18:30 – 9:00 Registration9:00 – 9:30 Welcome and Introductions Local representatives (UNDP, consultants) Lead Facilitator Introducing the PPCR study including the key measures/investments Outlining the purpose of the workshop and expected outcomes9:30 – 10:45 Drivers of current development and current capacities in the Session 1 country/region Plenary discussion and group work10:45 – 11:00 Break11:00 – 12:30 Socioeconomic and environmental trends focused on the key areas in the Session 2 country Plenary discussion and group work Group Briefings12:30 – 13:30 Lunch13:30 – 14:00 Overview of Climate Change and Impacts Local climate change expert Presentation and Plenary discussion14:00 – 16:00 Identifying potential future climate impacts and needed actions and Session 3 capacities Group Activity 15:30 Working coffee break Group report-back on key climate hazards and major vulnerabilities of the future scenarios16:00 – 17:00 Group presentations on climate impacts and adaptation, capacities to respond to impacts17:15 Wrap-up of day 1 27
  28. 28. Day 29:00 – 9:30 Welcome Back & Opening Remarks9:30-11:00 Assessing resilience of the future system Introduction of the key elements of resilience Review of the system for its resilience Plenary discussion Group Activity Session 411:00 – 11:15 Break11:00 – 13:00 Moving Forward: Identifying actions to increase resilience at the regional and country level Linking Developing action/policy pathways and related actions Group Activity Presentations by groups Plenary discussions13: 00 – 13.30 Next steps and closing; Workshop Evaluation13:30 – 14:30 LunchNote: The starting time and the breaks could be change, but the length of the sessions should be keptuntouched to provide enough time for their completions. 28
  29. 29. NOTES 29
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