Управление проектами: управление комплексными проектами


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  • I would like to talk more about complexity, looking at some older defence projects and examining how they compare with recent instancesI'll re-cap some of my story from last time so that people understand what I am talking about.
  • Управление проектами: управление комплексными проектами

    1. 1. “Back to the Future” Recent Findings Mary McKinlay September 2011Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    2. 2. Who Am I?  Board Member APM  Board Member ICCPM  Winner of IPMA Otto Ziegelmeier Award for Project Excellence 2010  Adjunct at SKEMA (ESC Lille)  30+ Years in Aerospace and Defence Business  Degree in Systems Engineering  “Problem” Project work  Practitioner and Engineer!Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    3. 3. Agenda  Themes Of Complexity  A Little History  What Are The Problems That We Face Now?  Moving ForwardMary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    4. 4. What do we mean by Complexity?  Not just large or complicated  Great uncertainty  Cannot be decomposed into discrete units  Many stakeholdersMary McKinlay Projects Ltd 4
    5. 5. Complex or Complicated ?  Complex – “composed of many interconnecting parts  Complicated – “composed of many elaborate interconnecting parts” Nature of the relationships between the parts  Complex Systems – elements interact and produce outcomes that are nonlinear and unpredictableMary McKinlay Projects Ltd 5
    6. 6. Complex Projects  ..are characterised by uncertainty, non-linearity and recursiveness, best viewed as dynamic and evolving systems.  So why do we pretend they are predictable, definable and fixed – and why do we use linear lifecycle models to manage them???Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    7. 7. Elements of Complexity  Uncertainty • Number of Stakeholders • Influence of Stakeholders • Technology Changes • Duration of Projects • Length of Supply Chains  “Wicked” Problems • Interconnectivity  Need for flexibility  Need to be able to track effectivelyMary McKinlay Projects Ltd 7
    8. 8. HMS Victory  July 1759, Mr Edward Allen, Master Shipwright of Chatham Dockyard received a letter from the Principal Officers and Commissioners of the Admiralty directing him: "To make preparation and to prepare costing for a First-Rate Ship of 100 guns, to be built and fitted for sea at Chatham".  Design: Thomas Slade, Senior Surveyor of the Navy  Keel Laid July 1759  May 1763 Floated out of DockMary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    9. 9. Project Features  Internal to the Navy  Long Lead Time Items – timber from Royal forest  Stakeholders – internal , although Public and Sailors were considered in choice of name  WHAT HAPPENED NEXT…  Shortage of Manpower  Need for ship had decreased and she was laid up after ballasting for 13 years.  March 1771, urgent repairs sinking in dry dock  Completion ordered 1776  Finally entered service June 1778Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    10. 10. HMS Warrior  Builder: Thames Ironworks & Shipbuilding Co. Ltd.  Laid Down: May 25, 1859  Launched: December 29, 1860  Commissioned: August 1, 1861  Decommissioned: May 31, 1883Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    11. 11. Project Distinguishing Features  Warrior was a composite sail/steam armoured frigate. Built with an iron hull and steam engines turning a large propeller  Conceived by Admiral Sir Baldwin Wake-Walker and designed by Isaac Watts  Admiralty was client to external companies  Urgency in build – to retain naval supremacy (Threatened by the French construction of “La Gloire”)Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    12. 12. Supermarine Spitfire  1934 RAF announced search for new fighter.  Vickers Aviation offered Spitfire as a solution  Had been developed from Reginald Mitchell’s design for Racing Seaplane (Schneider Trophy) adding new Rolls Royce engine  1936 first order for 310 aircraft. By 1939 4000 ordered  Other manufacturers involved, other versions developed for range of purposesMary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    13. 13. Project Features  Initial Risks taken by Industry  Full scale production enabled by private subscriber  Several Companies involved  Mass production  “Commoditisation”  Public AwarenessMary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    14. 14. Changes over the Years  Increasing Costs  New Partnerships  Increasing number of Stakeholders • More Public and Press Involvement  Changes in Technology • More specialisation • Immaturity  GREATER UNCERTAINTYMary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    15. 15. First Order Project Management Tools, Techniques Focus on the magic triangle It’s not working!Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd 15
    16. 16. Just a Thought! “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Albert EinsteinMary McKinlay Projects Ltd 16
    17. 17. Consequences “In spite of all the investment aimed at improving project management, there has been no appreciable improvement in the last five years when compared to the previous five years.” United States Government Accountability Office, March 2006 “A review of Major Projects over the last 20+ years reveals there has been little change in project success and they are generally late and over cost.” United Kingdom National Audit Office, November 2006Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd 17
    18. 18. Some More Ideas  Improved Project Results – not always visible!  Are Projects becoming more complex?  Projects are more open to outside influences - media, stakeholders, technology changes, dynamic nature of complex projects  Need for a whole systems approach – links between Systems Thinking and PMMary McKinlay Projects Ltd 18
    19. 19. Second Order Project Management  Focus on “People Skills”  New techniques, increased flexibilityMary McKinlay Projects Ltd 19
    20. 20. Changes Needed?  Appropriate Contracting Models  Outcome Management  Adhocratic Leadership  Systems Thinking  Experiential Learning  Better Understanding Of Behaviour  Need For Flexibility  Decision Making With Minimal Evidence  Need To Be Able To Track Effectively  New Approach to Risk and Opportunity ManagementMary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    21. 21. Systemic Failures “Despite great efforts by dedicated professionals, you have nonetheless failed to deliver integrated war fighting capability to our Battle Groups”  Admiral Paul Reason, C-in-C Atlantic Fleet, 1998 -on having to abandon a trial involving the co-operation of two US Navy Carrier groups after only two days.Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd 21
    22. 22. Systems Thinking – Pathway to Needed Paradigm Shifts? What assumptions have we made? How might they be incorrect? Are they even reasonable … really? What are some plausible alternative causes for the outcomes we are observing? What are we doing to contribute to behaviour we don’t want? Do our objectives actually serve our purposes or goals? What factors do we believe are important to our success? Are they really? Are we assuming that we should know things we cannot possibly know at this time?Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    23. 23. Non Linear Projects – London 2012 How much can What priority to the UK we give to legacy Government uses of afford to spend? infrastructure? Where is the bar set for a “successful” games What level of terrorist threat do we have to What is the defend against? impact of UK economics on labour market??Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd 23
    24. 24. Impact of Maturity on Risk Project Lifecycle Identify Develop Assess Down Detail Prepare Proposal Deploy Produce Agree Freeze Validate, Certify, Build Support Produce Prove & Produce Decommissioning Build & Options Option Each Select Remaining Accepted System System Engineering Manufacturing Clear for Operational Product and Proposal Technology Operational Procedures Definition Option Options Options Specification Specification Definition Definition Operation Capability Clearance Service Trials INNOVATION SELECTION SPECIFICATION REFINE/DEFINE VALIDATION PRODUCTION SUPPORT DISPOSAL System of Systems Weapon System Sub- System 1 Integrated System Sub System 2 System Sub System 3 Sub-System Component Project Risk Assessed riskMary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    25. 25. Risk Chains - Interconnectivity Across Product Breakdown StructureMary McKinlay Projects Ltd
    26. 26. The Next Steps for Project Management  Focus on Complexity  Need to develop intuition and learning from other’s successMary McKinlay Projects Ltd 26
    27. 27. Models to help  Remington and Pollack (Tools for Complex Projects) • 4 types of complexity • Structural, Technical, Temporal and Directional  Maylor • MODESTMary McKinlay Projects Ltd 27
    28. 28. MODeST – Maylor et al. 2008Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd 28
    29. 29. What’s Needed?  A Disciplined Academically Sound Approach  Focus on People – Not Tasks, Processes, or Things  Critical Thinking Skills  Assumption Challenging as a Way of Life  Dialogue and Diversity – and Increased Conflict  A Focus on Creating the Right Environment, Not Preoccupation with Creating the ‘Right’ Solution  Multiple Paradigms, Multiple Methodologies, and the Creativity to Employ Them EffectivelyMary McKinlay Projects Ltd 29
    30. 30. ICCPM International Centre for Complex Project Management  Learning • EMBA at QUT • Other Courses Worldwide  Research • Directions • Funding  White Papers • “The Conspiracy of Optimism” • Competency Development  www.iccpm.comMary McKinlay Projects Ltd 30
    31. 31. Further Reading Systems Thinking – Creative Holism for Managers – Professor Michael JacksonMary McKinlay Projects Ltd 31
    32. 32. Closing Thought “There is nothing more powerful on earth than an idea whose time has come” - Victor Hugo And for Project Management that time is nowMary McKinlay Projects Ltd 32
    33. 33. Next Time… BLOODHOUND SSC World Land Speed Record 1000 miles per hour South African Desert 2013Mary McKinlay Projects Ltd