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Rajeev andharia pmi conference 2010 v1.0

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  • 1. Predictability in Project Performance using Applied Statistics
    Rajeev AndhariaPMP, CISA, CISSP, ITILv3 Expert
    Co-Author “Six Sigma for IT Management”
    rajeev@myBTP.in
  • 2. Agenda
    The PM Challenge
    Key Concepts
    Some Key Techniques
    Sensitivity Analysis & Criticality Index
    Monte Carlo
    Some thoughts
    Approximate: 30 minutes
  • 3. The Project Management Challenge…
    Boss:I need the Cost number
    PM:I need details
    Boss:give me a number now. I wont hold you to it.
    PM:U will put the number in ur Budget. U will forget we had this conversation & beat me when the project goes “overbudget”
    Boss: Give me a number or I will beat you right now
    PM: Ok, it will cost $ 1 million
    Boss: That’s too high
    PM: If you already know the number why are you asking me?
    Boss: you should feel involved & accountable 
    PM: I rather be a developer 
    There are no facts about the future—everything that hasn’t happened is only an ESTIMATE.
    Boss
    PM
  • 4. The Choice…
    Would you go to an orthopaedist who did not use X-rays?
    J.M. Furbringer
  • 5. Key Concepts
    Predictability:
    Performance:
    Statistics:
    degree to which a correct forecast can be made either qualitatively or quantitatively
    Accomplishment measured against preset standards of accuracy, completeness, cost, and speed.
    set of tools for collecting, organizing, presenting and analyzing numerical facts or observations.
    provides tools for forecasting using data & models.
  • 6. Key Concepts
    Project Performance Management
    Why Statistics & Project Management?
    increasing the “probability of success” of achieving the unique outcome within the given constraints (i.e. scope, time, cost, quality, risk & resource)
    improving predictability in project performance using proven practices in “applied statistics” & project management
  • 7. Key Technique-1: Activity Criticality Index
    Given the activity duration estimates, the project manager wants to identify the critical activities.
    Popularly used technique: CPM
    Alternate technique: Criticality Index based on Sensitivity Analysis
  • 8.
  • 9. Sensitivity analysis is a technique for systematically changing parameters in a model to determine the effects of such changes.
    The Criticality Index expresses how often a particular task was on the Critical Path during the analysis.
  • 10.
  • 11. Key Technique-2: Monte Carlo Analysis
    Question: What is the outcome of rolling 2 Dice?
  • 12. Question: What is the Project Completion Date?
  • 13. Tell me something more on Monte Carlo Analysis?
    Step 1: Create a parametric model, y = f(x1, x2, ..., xq).
    Step 2: Generate a set of random inputs, xi1, xi2, ..., xiq.
    Step 3: Evaluate the model and store the results as yi.
    Step 4: Repeat steps 2 and 3 for i = 1 to n.
    Step 5: Analyze the results using histograms, summary statistics, confidence intervals, etc.
  • 14. Parting thoughts…
    Conclusions are judged to be sturdy only
    if the neighborhood of assumptions is wide enough to be credible and
    the corresponding interval of inferences is narrow enough to be useful.”
    Edward E. Leamer (econometrician)
  • 15. Parting thoughts…
    Stakeholder Management can be significantly improved by increased Predictability in Project Performance.
    Earned Value Analysis
    Decision Theory
    Expected Value
    Sensitivity Analysis
    Probability Distributions
    Quality Tools
  • 16. Thank You for Listening
    rajeev@myBTP.in