Partners in Weather Preparedness – Basic

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Speaker: Ted Buehner, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service (NWS)
This session will introduce how the National Weather Service (NWS) partners with the emergency
management community throughout the Pacific Northwest, focused on the joint mission of protection of
life and property. The material to be covered includes an understanding of NWS operations, products
and services, terminology, joint warning message dissemination, Pacific Northwest weather hazards, and
all-hazards weather support, all meeting the needs and requirements of the emergency management
community 24/7. Ted Buehner, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service (NWS)
This session will introduce how the National Weather Service (NWS) partners with the emergency
management community throughout the Pacific Northwest, focused on the joint mission of protection of
life and property. The material to be covered includes an understanding of NWS operations, products
and services, terminology, joint warning message dissemination, Pacific Northwest weather hazards, and
all-hazards weather support, all meeting the needs and requirements of the emergency management
community 24/7.

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Partners in Weather Preparedness – Basic

  1. 1. Partners In Weather Preparedness Ted Buehner Warning Coordination MeteorologistNational Weather Service – Seattle/Tacoma Serving America Since 1870
  2. 2. Outline• Mission Partnership• NWS Operations• The Warning System• Washington Weather Hazards• What Does That Mean ?• How Forecasts / Warnings Are Made ?• Working Together When the Weather Hits the Fan
  3. 3. What Is Your Mission ? National Weather Service Mission (Serving America Since 1870)Provide Weather, Hydrologic, andClimate FCli t Forecasts and Warnings for t dW i fthe United States, its Territories,Adjacent Waters and Ocean Areas,for the Protection of Life andProperty and Enhancement of theNational Economy.N ti lE
  4. 4. Weather, Flood Warnings & Forecasts – Essential for the Nation* The U.S. Encounters More Severe Weather Than Any Other Nation* Advance Forecasts and Warnings of Severe Weather Save Lives* 95% of All Presidentially Declared Disasters are Weather Related Nature is a hard teacher since she gives the test first, first the lesson afterwards. - Vernon Sanders
  5. 5. How Does the Pacific NW Rank Nationally ?
  6. 6. National Weather Service Operations p
  7. 7. Who We Are Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Team: Community Weather ExpertsIssues all Local Forecasts & WarningsBuilds and Maintains Relationships With Local andState GovernmentsProvides Expert Adviceto EmergencyOperations CentersSolicits CustomerFeedback on Productsand ServicesConducts CommunityAwareness and EdA d Education P ti ProgramsTrains Volunteer Observers and Storm Spotters
  8. 8. How We Do ItThe average person only sees the tip of the iceberg TV Radio Internet Private Weather Companies NATIONAL WEATHER 122 Weather Forecast Offices Issue Local Forecasts & Warnings SERVICE National Centers for Environmental Prediction Model Simulations Climate & Seasonal Outlooks River Forecasts Aviation Marine Forecasts A i ti & M i F t Hydropower, Flood warnings Storm & Tornado Prediction Irrigation, River Navigation Hurricane Tracks Observations Radar Network Satellites Weather Balloons Ground-level Network, Satellites, Balloons, Ground- observations at airports, Aircraft, Lightning Network, Data Buoys, Stream Gauge Network, 11,000 Volunteer daily-data collectors, daily- Thousands of Volunteer storm spotters
  9. 9. NWS Offices - 122 Field Offices - 9 National Centers - 13 River Forecast Centers
  10. 10. Doppler Weather Radar Coverage in Washington (Below 10 000 feet) 10,000
  11. 11. Coastal Radar Status• Langley Hill• Construction Underway• Will have dual-pol tech• Operational by end of y Sept
  12. 12. Elevation of the center of the radar beam increases with distance from the radar (tilt + earth curvature). For example, the height of the lowest elevation slice (0.5 degree) is about 5,500 ft AGL (above ground level) at 60 nm ( (nautical miles) from the radar, while at 120 nm the beam ) , height is about 15,000 ft AGL.~ 15,000 ft ~ 5,500 ft Buoy 41 ~ 2400 ft 100 mi 60 mi 20 mi
  13. 13. What the Wh t th coastal radar will do: t l d ill d• Improve observation of weather systems• Fine tune wind and precipitation forecasts (zero to 6 hours lead)• Improve estimates of rainfall• Help identify snow level• I Improve forecasts of short-fused severe weather f t f h tf d th• It would, over time, improve understanding of weather along the coast th l th t
  14. 14. Based on Doppler Weather Radio Coverage
  15. 15. National Weather Service Forecast / Warning P W i Programs- Severe Weather - Public Weather- Aviation Weather - Marine Weather- Fire Weather - Hydrology- Public Service Unit - Support Staff
  16. 16. NWS All-Hazards Weather Support- Tsunami- Volcanic- HazMat- Search and Rescue- Earthquake- Dam Break- Terrorism
  17. 17. NWS Customers• Transportation • Schools• Construction • Health Care• Recreation • Mariners• M di Media • Milit Military• Emergency Officials • Land Management Officials• Businesses • Water Resource• Utilities Managers Essentially Everyone!
  18. 18. The Weather Warning Partnership: P t hi National Weather Service News M di N Media & The Private Sector Public Meteorologists Emergency ManagementIn Washington during the 1990s - Nearly 100 Fatalities, -H d d I j d Hundreds Injured, - Over $1 Billion in Property Damage
  19. 19. The Warning System- Detection / Warning- Dissemination- Response
  20. 20. Warning S stem Goal: SystemTo maximize thenumber of peoplewho take appropriateand timely action tominimize injury,death, and propertydamage due tohazardous weatherand flooding.
  21. 21. NWS Seattle Media Partners
  22. 22. Human Response to Warning Messages Messages• Social Constraints – Perceived Proximity – Previous Experience – Observation – Warning Confirmation• Influencing Factors – Age – Language – Time of Day – Disabilities – T Type of Community fC it – Pets
  23. 23. Human Response to Warning Messages Messages• Inconsistent Warning Information Ever Turned From – Delay Decision Making One TV or Radio – Fail To Believe Warnings Station To Another – Take The Wrong Action and Heard a – Take No Action Different Forecast?• Desired Public Response – Receive – Understand Our Partnership in – Believe the Education Effort – Personalize – T k Proper Action Take P A ti When you’re prepared, you’re not scared !
  24. 24. How many taxdollars does it costyou,you for all theservices you get fromthe NWS each year?Every dollar invested in the NWS returns $8 toE d ll i di hour Nation s economy !!
  25. 25. Pacific NW Weather Hazards Can You Name Them ??
  26. 26. A Washington Weather Hazards@ Weathe aza ds
  27. 27. What Does That Mean ? Event Driven Prod cts E ent – Dri en ProductsOutlookWatchW t hWarningAdvisory
  28. 28. Event – Driven Products Outlook O tl kOutlook (Heads Up!)Seve e wea e co d o s a e poss b eSevere weather conditions are possible in a few days. ewConsider options ! 36-72 hours lead time (long fuse): High Wind, Flood, Winter Storm 12-48 hours lead time (short-fuse): Flash Flood, Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado Flood Thunderstorm
  29. 29. Event – Driven Products Watch W W t h / Warning / Advisory i Ad iWatch (Get Prepared!) ( p )Severe weather conditions are possible, but not yetcertain. Prepare now! p Up to 36 hours lead time (long-fuse): High Wind Watch, Winter Storm Watch i h i d h i S h Up to 12 hours lead time (short-fuse): (short fuse): Flash Flood Watch Up to 6 hours lead time (short-fuse): Severe Thunderstorm Watch, Tornado Watch
  30. 30. Event – Driven Products Watch W W t h / Warning / Advisory i Ad iWarning (Take Action!) g( )Severe weather conditions have begun or are imminentin your area. Take immediate action ! y Long-fused warnings: High Wind Warning, Winter Storm Warning, i h i d i i S i Coastal Flood Warning, Flood Warning Short-fused warnings: Flash Flood Warning, Tornado Warning, g, g, Severe Thunderstorm Warning
  31. 31. Event – Driven Products Watch W W t h / Warning / Advisory i Ad iAdvisory yWeather conditions are expected to cause significantinconvenience and may be hazardous. The greatesthazard is to motorists. Winter Weather Advisory High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory Urban d Small St U b and S ll Stream Flood Advisory Fl d Ad i
  32. 32. National Weather Service Weather and Flood Bulletins Weather/Flood Weather/ Weather/ Flood Outlook Flood Watch Warning Time to onset of event (hours)72 48 24 0 Increasing confidence that event will occur
  33. 33. “High Wind” Criteria * 40 MPH or more Sustained and/or * Gusts of 58 MPH or greaterMarine Warnings and AdvisoriesHurricane Force Storm - 64 knots or greaterStorm Warning - 48 to 63 knotsGale Warning - 34 to 47 knotsSmall Craft Advisory - 21 to 33 knots (plus heavy coastal swells and rough bars)
  34. 34. Winter Weather CriteriaWinter Storm Warning (within 12 hours) Winter Weather• Can be combined with Ice and/or Strong Winds Advisory• Lowlands – 4 inches or more 1 to 3 inches• Mountains – 12 inches or more 6 to 11 inchesBlizzard Warning• Snow Combined with Strong Winds of 35 MPH or more and visibility less than 1/4 mileAvalancheA l h• #2 Weather-Related Killer in Washington
  35. 35. I-5, Chehalis, Dec 2007
  36. 36. Thunderstorms• Lightning• Large Hail g• Strong Damaging Winds• Microbursts• Heavy Rainfall• Tornados
  37. 37. Thunderstorms• Heavy Rainfall = Flash Floods • #1 Thunderstorm Killer in U.S. • M t D th O Most Deaths Occur at Night and When t Ni ht d Wh People Become Trapped in Vehicles
  38. 38. ThunderstormsLightning– # 2 Thunderstorm Killer in U.S.– Washington Averages 1 Death g g every 5 Years– Lightning Safety
  39. 39. ‘Severe’ Thunderstorms Severe• Large Hail – 1 inch diameter or greater – Significant Damage to Agriculture or Vehicles• Strong Damaging Winds – Gusts of 58 MPH or Greater – Microbursts (often ( confused with tornados)• Note – Does Not Involve g g Lightning
  40. 40. Thunderstorms• Tornados – “A Violently Rotating Column of y g Air in Contact with the Ground” – Key Word is ROTATION – U.S. Now Averages over 1100 per Year –A Average 65 D h and 1500 Deaths d Injuries / Year – What is a Tornado called over the Water?
  41. 41. How Forecasts / Warnings are Made ? M d On the Fence
  42. 42. Weather Forecasting: gThe Process of Inferring Sensible Weather from a Blend of:* Data Assimilation * Experience* Understanding * Climatology* Solutions of the Governing Equations* Effectively Communicating to the Target GroupMain Tools - Observations and Forecast Computer Models- Collect Current and Recent Observations- Compare with Initial Forecast Model Conditions- Make any Needed Adjustments (Human/Machine Mix)- Coordinate (Internal, External)- Compose Forecast / Warning Issue
  43. 43. How We Do It Observe Products & Services Process Central Local Guidance Offices Respond & FeedbackIBM SP at Bowie, MDComputer Center Distribute Feedback
  44. 44. Weather Observation Sources• Satellite Pictures • Surface Observations• Upper Air • Weather Radar• Pilot Reports • Ship / Buoy Reports• Hydrology • Air Quality• Fire Weather • WSDOT Pass Reports• Remote Avalanche • Skywarn Spotters
  45. 45. Skywarn Weather Spotters Reporting C it i R ti Criteria• Tornados / Waterspouts / Funnel Clouds o ados ate spouts u e C ouds• Hail• Frequent Lightning Over 280,000 , Weather Spotters• Damaging Winds In the U.S. – All• Heavy Rainfall Volunteers• Flooding (of any kind)• Heavy Snowfall• Freezing Precipitation• Poor Visibility Began in Mar 1960
  46. 46. Working Together When the Weather “Hits the Fan”How Do You Get Your Weather Information Today?
  47. 47. Warning Systems – Passive vs ActivePassive– The Internet - Television / Cable– Commercial Radio - NewspaperActive– Emergency Managers Weather Information Network (EMWIN) ( )– NOAA Weather Radio (NWR)– Emergency Alert System ( g y y (EAS) )– E-Warn– iNWS, NWSChat iNWS,
  48. 48. NWS Warning Government Product Agencies NOAA Port NOAA Weather Wire EMWIN Internet Private Associated Vendors Press ACCESSNWR / EAS Media General Emergency Multiple Public Mgmt Paths
  49. 49. EMWINNWS Text/Graphic Products via Satellite and your PCFixed or Portable (Hazmat, Search & Rescue) More Info – http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/index.htmProducts• Weather Warnings – Top Priority• Forecasts / Current Conditions• Graphics – Radar, Satellite Images and more• Alarm Any Product You Desire – Site SpecificTransmission• Vi NOAA GOES Satellite Via S t llit• Non-Encrypted Signal – No Recurring Cost
  50. 50. NOAA Weather Radio A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of ShoesDirect from the NWS 24 hours a day
  51. 51. NOAA Weather Radio A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of ShoesLatest Area Forecasts and Conditions
  52. 52. NOAA Weather Radio A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of ShoesOver 1000 Stations Across the Nation
  53. 53. NOAA Weather Radio A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of Shoes22 Stations Serving Washington
  54. 54. NOAA Weather Radio A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of ShoesHas a Warning Alarm Feature
  55. 55. NOAA Weather Radio A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of ShoesFlood and Weather Warnings as Needed
  56. 56. NOAA Weather Radio A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of ShoesKey Element in Emergency Alert System (EAS)
  57. 57. NOAA Weather Radio A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of Shoes“All-“All-Hazards” Warning System
  58. 58. NOAA Weather Radio A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of ShoesReceivers Available at Most Radio Electronic Retailers and via the Internet
  59. 59. NOAAWeather Radiois Washington’s g “All-Hazards”Warning System Ocean Shores “AHAB”
  60. 60. NWS Messages to EAS* Tornado Watch or Warning* Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Warning* Flash Flood Watch or Warning* Major Flood Warning* High Wind Warning* Winter Storm / Blizzard Warning* Tsunami Watch or Warning* Tests – Weekly and Monthly
  61. 61. Non -NWS Messages on g NOAA Weather Radio17 Event Codes in all - Examples include: * Civil Emergency Warning g y g * Evacuation Immediate * Shelter In Place Warning * Volcano Warning * 911 Outage g * Child Abduction Emergency (AMBER)
  62. 62. NWS Seattle AAll-Hazards@ NWRHow does it work?Local Relay Networkis the key element !
  63. 63. NWS Web Sites in the PacNWSeattle - www.weather.gov/seattlePortland - www.weather.gov/portlandSpokane - www.weather.gov/spokanePendleton – www.weather.gov/pendleton www weather gov/pendletonMedford - www.weather.gov/medfordBoise - www.weather.gov/boisePocatello - www.weather.gov/pocatello
  64. 64. www.weather.gov/seattle Nationwide - weather.gov
  65. 65. NWS Seattle Amateur Radio W k t ti R di Workstation• UHF / VHF – K7MMI Repeater System, 147.20• Seattle 800 MHz, King, , g, Pierce, Snohomish counties• State CemNet• Packet, APRS• HF• Skywarn Recognition Day – First Sat in Dec• Exercises
  66. 66. Look What Everyone Is y Talking AboutYour National Weather Service Goes Digital
  67. 67. National Digital Forecast Database • Mosaic forecasts for the entire country, regional or by state • National marine and other products available • Interactive! Via the web or download the data files - use them as needed • Can be integrated with GIS mapping
  68. 68. IFPS Interactive Forecast Processing System• Grid Resolution – 2.5 km (down to a “neighborhood” scale) – 1.6 million grid boxes across the lower 48, 40,000 in g , , Washington• Numerical Weather (Computer Model) Prediction Inputs – Local forecaster adjustments to grids• Forecast Grid Elements (all at surface) – Temps Max/Min Dewpoint RH Temps, Max/Min, Dewpoint, – POPS, Precip Amounts, % Sky Cover, Weather – Snow / Freezing Level, Winds, Wave Heights and more
  69. 69. Giving You More Weather Information via the Internet The public, emergency managers and city planners use WWW. graphic products for detailed  More weather data forecasts  Higher resolution g forecasts Different Commercial weather  Visual displays ofProducts for companies & emergency probability ii Different managers use grids to generate tailored Customers products  User-defined User- products create business TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW opportunities ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 Radio stations & public INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 read text forecasts TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.
  70. 70. All- All-Hazards Weather SupportNew Carrissa Selendang AYU 1999 2005 - Weather DataMissoula Derailment 1996 -FForecasts t Hurricane Katrina 2005 - Incident Mets - On-Site or from NWS Seattle - Exercises
  71. 71. Available NWS Services – On- On-site SupportIncident Meteorologist (IMET)– Local Expertise– Able to work independent of local NWS office– Provide weather input to response teamTrained– ICS– HAZMAT Response– MediaResources– 4X4 response vehicle– Laptop with portable two-way satellite dish two-– Local weather observation equipment
  72. 72. Available NWS Services – Remote Office SupportAvailable 24/7A il bl– Forecasters around the clockDedicated PhD di t d Phone– Unlisted– No voice mail– Answered 24/7Spot Forecasts– Site-specific Site-
  73. 73. Spot Forecasts p Your Local NWS Web Site Click the Fire Weather Link- Wildfire- HAZMAT- Search & Rescue
  74. 74. Spot Forecasts p
  75. 75. Spot Forecasts SAR Spots HAZMAT Spots25 45 4020 35 3015 25 2010 15 105 50 0 SAR Spots HAZMET Spots
  76. 76. HYSPLIT(Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model) Single-Particle
  77. 77. NWS Fire Weather / All-Hazards All- Phone Contacts (Unlisted)Spot ForecastsCoordination Seattle - 206-526-6088 Portland - 503-326-2420 Spokane - 509-244-5031 Pendleton - 541-276-8134
  78. 78. NWS Media / Emergency ManagementPhPhone N Numbers i W hi t (U li t d) b in Washington (Unlisted) Weather /Flood Related Questions Hazmat Weather Support Search and R S h d Rescue W th S Weather Support tSeattle - 206-526-6857 Portland - 503-261-9248Spokane - 509-244-0537 Pendleton - 541-276-4493
  79. 79. Questions ???

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