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Wedges Reaffirmed          Robert Socolow      socolow@princeton.eduPrinceton Energy and Climate Scholars        Princeton...
Motivation for my recent workWe will greatly increase the damage from climate changeif we postpone action for decades.We m...
Motivation for my recent workThe extremely difficult goal espoused by many the world’sdiplomats and the environmentalists ...
Einstein’s advice“Make everything as simple as possible, but no simpler.”
Historical Emissions       Billions of tons of CO260       emitted per year30         Historical           emissions6    0...
The Stabilization Triangle        Billions of tons of CO260        emitted per year                                       ...
Per-capita fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, 2005                       World emissions: 27 billion tons CO2                     ...
The Stabilization Triangle       Billions of tons of CO2                                        Easier CO2 target60       ...
Alternative versions of targetsEm: Emission rate at some future time (tCO2/yr)Conc: Maximum allowed concentration (tCO2) –...
Relationships among global targets                                      Conc                          (2)                 ...
The 2oC Variant is still tougher       Billions of tons of CO2                               Easier CO2 target60       emi...
“Flat” vs. “down 50%” is about the   developing world’s emissions                                                         ...
The developing world will decide what      kind of planet we live on. For a while longer, the industrialized countries wil...
Stabilization Wedges       Billions of tons of CO260                                                         16 GtC/y     ...
What is a “Wedge”?A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that growsin 50 years from zero to 4 GtCO2/yr. The st...
Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Eight Wedges                in six broad categories                            Energy...
The Virtual Triangle: Large Carbon Savings Are            Already in the Baseline           120                           ...
Legacy: U.S. Power Plants         Source: Benchmarking Air Emissions, April 2006. The report was         co-sponsored by C...
U.S. power plant capacity, by vintage           80000                                 Capacity, total by source           ...
U.S. CO2 pipeline infrastructure                                                                                          ...
China Appliance StandardsBusiness as Usual: CO2 emissions from airconditioners in 2020 are 9x those in 2000.New Air Condit...
The UN’s “low”population projection has almost 10 billion     fewer people in 2100 than its “high” projection.Billionpeopl...
UN Population Projections (2 of 2)                                                      -0.8%/yr in 2100.                 ...
We have lost precious time.           Annual Rate of Emissions of CO2 Globally                                            ...
“Wedges reaffirmed,”             a short essay released on Sept 27, 2011                                                  ...
What’s in the way of action?Important factors have been beyond the control of theenvironmental community:   •The recent re...
Ways to restart the conversationAdvocates for prompt action could and should haveacknowledged that:   •The news is unwelco...
The news is unwelcome.Never in history has the work of so few led to so muchbeing asked of so many!   The “few” are today’...
Greenland: 7 meters.                West Antarctica : 5 meters  1 meter                                               2 me...
“Shooting the messenger”? No surprise.The messenger has been shot before.   Galileo argued that the earth wasn’t at the ce...
The science is incomplete1.Neither slow nor rapid arrival of severe  climate change can be ruled out, given our  poor unde...
Uncertainty across climate models                                                          Projected Percent              ...
Uncertain emissions    Thirty year changes for    Massachusetts:    2010-2039:    Done!    2040-2069:    Princeton vs. Was...
Which uncertainty is more important?         Source: globalchange.gov/usimpactsThe Committee on America’s Climate Choicess...
“Solutions” can bring serious        problems of their own.Every “solution” has a dark side.       Conservation          R...
Iterative risk management“I will apply, for the benefit of thesick, all measures that arerequired, avoiding those twin tra...
Iterative risk management: the basis     for a renewed commitmentIn another decade well know a lot more about the earth, b...
Grounds for optimism1. The world today has a terribly inefficient   energy system.2. Carbon emissions have just begun to b...
EXTRA SLIDES
Surrogate Goals (1 of 3)Definition of a surrogate goalA person who holds Goal A strongly and Goal B weakly, butbelieves th...
Surrogate Goals (2 of 3)Surrogate goals and climate changeIn the formulation of policy to deal with climate change, thegen...
Surrogate Goals (3 of 3)A problem arises when an action in support of thesurrogate goal negates the person’s more strongly...
Safe is not fair, and fair is not safeDefine “fairness” as equal access to theatmosphere for all nations measured bycumula...
Beyond per capita    We can’t solve the climate problem    without moving beyond “per capita” –    looking inside countrie...
One billion “high-emitters”                  USA      other OECD     China     other nonOECD       2003>10       2030     ...
Population distribution across 4 regions    The poor need not be denied fossil fuels               USA     other OECD     ...
NJ CO2 emissions goals                                                                  Not included: CO2                 ...
Princeton’s CO2 emissions goal                                                     7,100 students                         ...
Uncertain future surface temperaturesBox plots of probability distributions elicited from 14 “experts”: global mean surfac...
Experts’ median estimates of the transient response of globally averaged temperature change (relative to                  ...
One billion “high-emitters”                              USA      other OECD     China     other nonOECD                  ...
What should we be doing?Right away:   Phase out the obsolete.   Build well, at all spatial scales.   Via R&D, improve what...
Four “study questions”1.   What is a goal? “Targets and timetables” are the currency of     negotiations. A goal can be “a...
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  • Public value, not private value
  • Projected changes in median runoff for 2041 to 2060, relative to a 1901 to 1970 baseline, are mapped by water-resource region. Colors indicate percentage changes in runoff. Hatched areas indicate greater confidence due to strong agreement among model projections. U.S. white areas indicate divergence among model projections. Results are based on emissions in between the lower and higher emissions scenarios
  • Definition of a surrogate goalA person who holds Goal A strongly and Goal B weakly, but believes that achieving Goal B will also achieve Goal A, can pursue Goal B as a surrogate for Goal A.  Usually, Goal A will be revealed only in special circumstances. Recognizing that a multiplicity of surrogate goals is at play has considerable explanatory power. Surrogate goals and climate changeIn the formulation of policy to deal with climate change, the general objective of slowing the rate of climate change is often a surrogate for more strongly held goals, such as:Augmenting financial transfers to developing countriesBringing the fossil fuel era to a closeCurtailing consumerism and human centerednessPromoting self-sufficiency and autonomous communitiesDiminishing the power of technological elitesPromoting environmental scienceEncouraging entrepreneurship A problem arises when an action in support of the surrogate goal negates the person’s more strongly held goal. Nuclear power strengthens technological elites. Capturing and storing CO2 prolongs the fossil fuel era.
  • Definition of a surrogate goalA person who holds Goal A strongly and Goal B weakly, but believes that achieving Goal B will also achieve Goal A, can pursue Goal B as a surrogate for Goal A.  Usually, Goal A will be revealed only in special circumstances. Recognizing that a multiplicity of surrogate goals is at play has considerable explanatory power. Surrogate goals and climate changeIn the formulation of policy to deal with climate change, the general objective of slowing the rate of climate change is often a surrogate for more strongly held goals, such as:Augmenting financial transfers to developing countriesBringing the fossil fuel era to a closeCurtailing consumerism and human centerednessPromoting self-sufficiency and autonomous communitiesDiminishing the power of technological elitesPromoting environmental scienceEncouraging entrepreneurship A problem arises when an action in support of the surrogate goal negates the person’s more strongly held goal. Nuclear power strengthens technological elites. Capturing and storing CO2 prolongs the fossil fuel era.
  • Definition of a surrogate goalA person who holds Goal A strongly and Goal B weakly, but believes that achieving Goal B will also achieve Goal A, can pursue Goal B as a surrogate for Goal A.  Usually, Goal A will be revealed only in special circumstances. Recognizing that a multiplicity of surrogate goals is at play has considerable explanatory power. Surrogate goals and climate changeIn the formulation of policy to deal with climate change, the general objective of slowing the rate of climate change is often a surrogate for more strongly held goals, such as:Augmenting financial transfers to developing countriesBringing the fossil fuel era to a closeCurtailing consumerism and human centerednessPromoting self-sufficiency and autonomous communitiesDiminishing the power of technological elitesPromoting environmental scienceEncouraging entrepreneurship A problem arises when an action in support of the surrogate goal negates the person’s more strongly held goal. Nuclear power strengthens technological elites. Capturing and storing CO2 prolongs the fossil fuel era.
  • Transcript of "11 12 01 princeton pecs wedges reaffirmed"

    1. 1. Wedges Reaffirmed Robert Socolow socolow@princeton.eduPrinceton Energy and Climate Scholars Princeton University December 1, 2011
    2. 2. Motivation for my recent workWe will greatly increase the damage from climate changeif we postpone action for decades.We might well postpone action as a response to becomingdisheartened.We could become disheartened as a result of discoveringthat we will not achieve the currently discussed, extremelydifficult goal – the only one that is widely espoused.
    3. 3. Motivation for my recent workThe extremely difficult goal espoused by many the world’sdiplomats and the environmentalists is “two degrees.” Toachieve “two degrees,” the fossil fuel system must be shutdown by mid-century.There is no appetite for discussion of any goal that is lessstringent. Yet a consensus could develop—possibly quitesoon—that “two degrees” will not be attained.It would be desirable to prepare now to discuss somerelatively less difficult goal that nonetheless requires,starting immediately, major national commitments andinternational coordination, and that could be attained.
    4. 4. Einstein’s advice“Make everything as simple as possible, but no simpler.”
    5. 5. Historical Emissions Billions of tons of CO260 emitted per year30 Historical emissions6 0 1950 2000 2050 2100
    6. 6. The Stabilization Triangle Billions of tons of CO260 emitted per year Stabilization Triangle Interim Goal30 Historical emissions Flat path6 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 4 tCO2/yr.
    7. 7. Per-capita fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, 2005 World emissions: 27 billion tons CO2 AVERAGE STABILIZATION 1-Source: IEA WEO 2007
    8. 8. The Stabilization Triangle Billions of tons of CO2 Easier CO2 target60 emitted per year ~850 ppm Stabilization Triangle Interim Goal30 Historical emissions Flat path 2.5oC6 0 1950 2000 2050 2100
    9. 9. Alternative versions of targetsEm: Emission rate at some future time (tCO2/yr)Conc: Maximum allowed concentration (tCO2) – often ppm.CumEm: Cumulative emissions (“budget”) for an interval (tCO2)Temp: Maximum allowed average surface temperature increase relative to pre-industrial times (oC) Conc Em Temp CumEm
    10. 10. Relationships among global targets Conc (2) (3) Em Temp (1) (4) CumEm(1): dCumEm/dt = Em(2): dConc/dt = λ*Em, λ ≈ 0.5 (“Half Stays In”)(3): Temp = CS*ln(Conc/Conco)/ln2, where Conco = pre-industrial concentration ≈ 2200 GtCO2 and CS = climate sensitivity (central value of CS is 3.0oC; 66% interval: 2.0oC < CS < 4.5oC)(4): Temp = K*CumEm∞, where CumEm∞ extends from pre-industrial time to infinity and, in units of oC/1000GtCO2, the central value of K is 0.48: 90% interval: 0.27 < K < 0.68. In short, 2000 GtCO2 ≈ 1oC.
    11. 11. The 2oC Variant is still tougher Billions of tons of CO2 Easier CO2 target60 emitted per year ~850 ppm Stabilization Triangle Interim Goal30 Historical emissions Flat path 2.5oC Tougher6 interim goal 2oC 0 1950 2000 2050 2100
    12. 12. “Flat” vs. “down 50%” is about the developing world’s emissions X Up 60% or down 60% Up 140% or up 60%, or down 40% Analysis of low-carbon industrialization has been far too casual for me to be comfortable endorsing the lower fifty-year target at this time.Source of Figure: Socolow and Pacala, “A plan to keep carbon in check,” Scientific American, Sept 2006.
    13. 13. The developing world will decide what kind of planet we live on. For a while longer, the industrialized countries will lead.
    14. 14. Stabilization Wedges Billions of tons of CO260 16 GtC/y emitted per year Eight “wedges” Interim Goal30 Historical emissions Flat path6 0 1950 2000 2050 2100
    15. 15. What is a “Wedge”?A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that growsin 50 years from zero to 4 GtCO2/yr. The strategy has alreadybeen commercialized at scale somewhere. 4 GtCO2/yr Total = 100 Gigatons CO2 50 years Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 100 GtCO2 in its first 50 years. This is six trillion dollars at $60/tCO2. A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.
    16. 16. Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Eight Wedges in six broad categories Energy EfficiencySmaller DecarbonizedFamilies 60 GtCO2/yr Electricity StabilizationMethane Triangle DecarbonizedManagement Fuels 30 GtCO2/yr 2008 2058 Extra Carbon in Forests, Soils, Oceans
    17. 17. The Virtual Triangle: Large Carbon Savings Are Already in the Baseline 120 Emissions proportional to economic growth 90 GtCO2/yr Virtual 60 Triangle Historical Stabilization Triangle 30 emissions Flat path 8 0 1957 2007 2057Models differ widely in their estimates of contributions to the virtual triangle from structuralshifts (toward services), energy efficiency, and carbon-free energy.
    18. 18. Legacy: U.S. Power Plants Source: Benchmarking Air Emissions, April 2006. The report was co-sponsored by CERES, NRDC and PSEG.
    19. 19. U.S. power plant capacity, by vintage 80000 Capacity, total by source 70000 Other Renewables 60000 Water 50000 Nuclear Issues: Grandfathering, retirement, relicensing,megawatt Gas 40000 Oil retrofit, repowering Coal 30000 20000 10000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 year of initial operation Source: EIA. Joseph.Beamon@eia.doe.gov
    20. 20. U.S. CO2 pipeline infrastructure Denbury proposes to send Ohio Valley CO2 to the Gulf states.Source: "Reducing CO2 Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Plants," John Wheeldon, EPRI, presented at the CCTR Advisory Panel Meeting,Vincennes University, Vincennes IN, September 10, 2009. Reproduced in Science Applications International Corporation, Indiana andCoal: Keeping Indiana Energy Cost Competitive, June 2010, Fig. 2-15, submitted to Indiana Center for Coal Technology Research
    21. 21. China Appliance StandardsBusiness as Usual: CO2 emissions from airconditioners in 2020 are 9x those in 2000.New Air Conditioner Standard: Down 25% (45MtCO2/yr) in 2020.180160140120100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 50 million new, efficient air conditioners per year in 2020 Analysis of low-carbon industrialization has been far too casual. There’s work to do.
    22. 22. The UN’s “low”population projection has almost 10 billion fewer people in 2100 than its “high” projection.Billionpeople High:15.8, 2.6 kids/Mom Medium:10.1, 2.1 kids/Mom Peak at ≈ Low: 6.2, 1.6 kids/Mom 2050 dPop/dt falls to -0.8%/yr in 2100. If sustained, 2.8 billion in 2200. Source: United Nations. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm
    23. 23. UN Population Projections (2 of 2) -0.8%/yr in 2100. If sustained, 2.8 billion in 2200.Source: United Nations. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm
    24. 24. We have lost precious time. Annual Rate of Emissions of CO2 Globally Year GtC/yr x 2008 8749 2007 8543 x 2006 8350 2005 8086 2004 7782 2003 7397 2002 6981 2001 6916 Source (accessed 10/1/11): http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html.
    25. 25. “Wedges reaffirmed,” a short essay released on Sept 27, 2011 The essay was accompanied by comments from: Carter Bales Ralph Cicerone Freeman Dyson Christopher Field Robert Fri David Hawkins Rush Holt Robert May Phil Sharp Nicholas Stern New trajectory: 550 ppm, 3oCReleased at www.thebulletin.org and www.climatecentral.org.Comments at www.dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com.
    26. 26. What’s in the way of action?Important factors have been beyond the control of theenvironmental community: •The recent recession •The political influence of the fossil fuel industries and the beneficiaries of low-cost power (e.g., the coal-power states) •Economic development imperatives in countries undergoing industrialization.However, advocates for prompt action, of whom I am one, alsobear responsibility for the poor quality of the discussion and thelack of momentum.
    27. 27. Ways to restart the conversationAdvocates for prompt action could and should haveacknowledged that: •The news is unwelcome •The science is incomplete •“Solutions” can bring serious problems of their own.Might these three domains of political discourse be seedbedsfor the restarting of serious discussion and ensuing action?
    28. 28. The news is unwelcome.Never in history has the work of so few led to so muchbeing asked of so many! The “few” are today’s climate science researchers. The “many” are the rest of us. We are asked to reduce our emissions promptly and substantially.
    29. 29. Greenland: 7 meters. West Antarctica : 5 meters 1 meter 2 meters 4 meters 8 meters A falling sea level would also be disruptive!Source: T. Knutson, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA. See:http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/climate_dynamics/climate_impact_webpage.html#section4
    30. 30. “Shooting the messenger”? No surprise.The messenger has been shot before. Galileo argued that the earth wasn’t at the center of the universe and was excommunicated. Darwin argued that human beings were part of the animal kingdom and was cruelly mocked.The idea that humans can’t change our planet is as out-of-date and wrong as the earth-centered universe and theseparate creation of Man.But all three ideas have such appeal that they will fade awayonly very slowly.
    31. 31. The science is incomplete1.Neither slow nor rapid arrival of severe climate change can be ruled out, given our poor understanding of feedbacks.2.The probability of very bad outcomes is poorly known.3.Breakthroughs are not imminent. We are not only flying blind, but the fog is not about to lift. 31
    32. 32. Uncertainty across climate models Projected Percent Changes in Annual Runoff, 2041-60 vs. 1901-70Hatched areas indicate greater confidence due to strong agreement among modelprojections. White areas indicate divergence among model projections. A middle-of-the-road emissions scenario is assumed. Source: globalchange.gov/usimpacts
    33. 33. Uncertain emissions Thirty year changes for Massachusetts: 2010-2039: Done! 2040-2069: Princeton vs. Washington 2070-2099: Baltimore vs. Augusta This graph probably shows how winters could feel too (to be verified). Figure from James McCarthy, Harvard NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
    34. 34. Which uncertainty is more important? Source: globalchange.gov/usimpactsThe Committee on America’s Climate Choicesstruggled with the relative importance ofuncertain climate science and uncertain Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)human behavior. Figure from James McCarthy, Harvard
    35. 35. “Solutions” can bring serious problems of their own.Every “solution” has a dark side. Conservation Regimentation Renewables Competing uses of land “Clean coal” Mining: worker and land impacts Nuclear power Nuclear war Geoengineering Technological hegemonyRisk management: In choosing targets, we must take into accountboth the risks of disruption from climate change and the risks ofdisruption from mitigation.
    36. 36. Iterative risk management“I will apply, for the benefit of thesick, all measures that arerequired, avoiding those twin trapsof overtreatment and therapeuticnihilism.” Hippocrates * Modern version of the Hippocratic oath, Louis Lasagna, 1964, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/doctors/oath_modern.html
    37. 37. Iterative risk management: the basis for a renewed commitmentIn another decade well know a lot more about the earth, bothbecause of new climate science and because of what the earthtells us about itself. Right now: measure, model, and think.We’ll also know more about the solutions themselves, thanksto both R&D and field experience. Right now: develop options.Right now: agree to make decisions iteratively. Specifically, we can wait at least a decade before deciding whether 1) flat emissions for 50 years is as heroic an outcome as we can achieve safely and equitably, or 2) whether we can achieve still more.
    38. 38. Grounds for optimism1. The world today has a terribly inefficient energy system.2. Carbon emissions have just begun to be priced.3. Most of the 2061 physical plant is not yet built.4. Many smart and committed young people now find energy problems exciting.
    39. 39. EXTRA SLIDES
    40. 40. Surrogate Goals (1 of 3)Definition of a surrogate goalA person who holds Goal A strongly and Goal B weakly, butbelieves that achieving Goal B will also achieve Goal A, canpursue Goal B as a surrogate for Goal A.Usually, Goal A will be revealed only in specialcircumstances. Recognizing that a multiplicity of surrogategoals is at play has considerable explanatory power.
    41. 41. Surrogate Goals (2 of 3)Surrogate goals and climate changeIn the formulation of policy to deal with climate change, thegeneral objective of slowing the rate of climate change isoften a surrogate for more strongly held goals, such as: •Augmenting financial transfers to developing countries •Bringing the fossil fuel era to a close •Curtailing consumerism and human centeredness •Promoting self-sufficiency, autonomous communities •Diminishing the power of technological elites •Promoting environmental science •Encouraging entrepreneurship
    42. 42. Surrogate Goals (3 of 3)A problem arises when an action in support of thesurrogate goal negates the person’s more stronglyheld goal. Capturing and storing CO2 prolongs the fossil fuel era. Large and distant solar arrays and windfarms do not promote local self-reliance.
    43. 43. Safe is not fair, and fair is not safeDefine “fairness” as equal access to theatmosphere for all nations measured bycumulative per capita emissions over sometime interval.For a stringent target, fairness in this sense isnot achievable.Thus, fairness must be redefined: equalopportunity to develop, while benefiting fromoptions not available in the past.
    44. 44. Beyond per capita We can’t solve the climate problem without moving beyond “per capita” – looking inside countries. What if “common but differentiated responsibilities” refers to individuals instead of nations?“One-billion high emitters,” PNAS, 2009. Co-authors: Shoibal Chakravarty, AnanthChikkatur, Heleen de Coninck, Steve Pacala, Massimo Tavoni.
    45. 45. One billion “high-emitters” USA other OECD China other nonOECD 2003>10 2030 In 2030, more than 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 2003 half of these2-10 “high-emitters” 2030 will live outside 2003 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 the OECD.<2 2030 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
    46. 46. Population distribution across 4 regions The poor need not be denied fossil fuels USA other OECD China other nonOECD 2003 >10 2030 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 2003 A floor at 2 tCO2/yr 2-10 2030 in 2030 and raises projected 2030 2003 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 global emissions by only 13%. <2 2030 The lower half of the world’s emitters 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1Global distribution of individual emissions. Units: tC02/year
    47. 47. NJ CO2 emissions goals Not included: CO2 emissions from 28% imported power Source: A Blueprint for Action: Policy Options to Reduce New Jersey’s Contribution to Global Warming, Environment New Jersey Research and Policy Center, September 2006.Total: 120 MtCO2/yr = 2% of U.S., 0.5% of worldPer capita: (120 MtCO2/yr)/8.7 M people = 13.8 tCO2/yr, 2/3 of U.S., 3x world.
    48. 48. Princeton’s CO2 emissions goal 7,100 students 5,400 employees Per capita emissions: 9 tonsm CO2 per yearIncluded: On-campus and external energy for cogeneration plant, fuel for vehiclefleet, but not travel to campus. Note: Princeton expects to add almost 2 millionsquare feet of building space in the next 10 years.
    49. 49. Uncertain future surface temperaturesBox plots of probability distributions elicited from 14 “experts”: global mean surface air temperaturechange (ΔT) relative to 2000, for four points shown in the inset.
    50. 50. Experts’ median estimates of the transient response of globally averaged temperature change (relative to 2000) for the high (Upper) and low (Lower) forcing trajectories. Zickfeld K et al. PNAS 2010;107:12451-12456©2010 by National Academy of Sciences
    51. 51. One billion “high-emitters” USA other OECD China other nonOECD 2003 >10 2030 In 2030, over half of the “high- 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 2003 2-10 emitters” willUnits: Estimatedemissions of 2030 live outside theindividuals in2030, in tons 2003 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 OECD.CO2/year <2 2030 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
    52. 52. What should we be doing?Right away: Phase out the obsolete. Build well, at all spatial scales. Via R&D, improve what we can already do. Move beyond “per capita” to focus on all “high emitters.”Steadily, for a long time: Seek new options (but don’t bet the store on finding them). Encourage transitions that reduced cumulative impact (including a falling global population). Build resilience (“adaptation capacity”).
    53. 53. Four “study questions”1. What is a goal? “Targets and timetables” are the currency of negotiations. A goal can be “aspirational” or can have the force of law.2. I assume the electorate actually matters, not just interest groups. Have I been naïve and demonstrated “what the wonk does worst”?3. How should income inequality be accounted for in international agreements? Climate change itself menaces the poor, who are least able to adapt. Climate change mitigation exacerbates poverty if it results in higher costs for meeting basic needs.4. How much should one count on breakthroughs? The sufficiency of current tools vs. putting one’s faith in fundamental breakthroughs.

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