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Analyzing human population growth

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  • 1. Nassau County ANALYZING HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH: by Chris Vetrano 8/8/2013
  • 2. This graph is for 2000. The graphs on the right are for 2010 and 2040. Mostly what you see is a decrease in population but the proportions are similar over the years. The 2000 census shows the age and gender distributions are remarkably close to equal from 0 to 80. At 80+ there are more females than males. In 2010 you can see a similar pattern.
  • 3. STATE FLAGDate Population Date Population 1/1/1790 9,855 1/1/1900 55,448 1/1/1800 10,274 1/1/1910 83,930 1/1/1810 11,892 1/1/1920 126,120 1/1/1820 13,273 1/1/1930 303,053 1/1/1830 13,411 1/1/1940 406,748 1/1/1840 15,844 1/1/1950 672,765 1/1/1850 18,240 1/1/1960 1,300,171 1/1/1860 24,488 1/1/1970 1,428,285 1/1/1870 28,335 1/1/1980 1,321,582 1/1/1880 34,015 1/1/1990 1,287,348 1/1/1890 41,009 1/1/2000 1,336,073 1/1/2010 1,339,532 1/1/2011 1,344,000 Historically from 1790 to 1900 it doubled approximately every 50 years. From 1900 to 1920 it double and from 1920 to 1950 it doubled. Doubling approx. every 20 years. Then a huge population growth occurred. In ten years it doubled from 672,765 to 1,300,171. In 1970 it peaked at 1,428,285 and has stayed below that since. “Since 1920, the population in Nassau County has grown rapidly, especially in the years following World War II. Population peaked at 1.4 million in 1970 after increasing by 251 percent since 1940. Over the next decade, the population declined by 7.5 percent but has since remained stable.” (OSC, 2006) Today the population of Nassau County is approximately 1,344,000.
  • 4. “Looking at a map of NH White VAP population change from 2000 to 2010, it is clear that without growth in the minority communities, Nassau would have actually lost total population during this period. Indeed, NH White VAP declined by nearly 9% overall – most heavily in Elmont-Valley Stream and Baldwin within the Town of Hempstead.” (NCURC, 2012) Nassau County seems to be stabilized at around 1.3m, there has been little change in growth over the last 60 years. One factor is the availability of housing. Most development happens on old sites, rather than new construction on undeveloped land. I do not see there being much change in population considering the data and the land available for new housing. “The pace of growth in Nassau has been slower than in other downstate counties; however, Nassau is already more developed than neighboring suburbs. While this limits its opportunities for growth, Nassau’s current population density is more than double the next densest county in the downstate region, and the county has one of the lowest rates of unemployment in the State.” (OSC, 2006) Also from 2000 to 2010, more than 600,000 people moved from New York to Florida, according to the Tax Foundation. The relocation of New Yorkers to warmer states has increased and also contributes to the stabilization of its population. “Nassau’s high population density, the scarcity of available land, and the preponderance of single-family homes contribute to the stability of its population.” (OSC, 2006)
  • 5. The graph below shows the age distribution and median age from 1960 to 2010. There is a 7 year median age change from 1960 to 2010 The age distribution fluctuates between 4% to 10% except for the under 18 age group, which decrease almost 16%.
  • 6. Since future growth for Nassau County is unlikely, the impact to the environment will be the usual suspects. One significant environmental issues that is affecting Nassau County, is the increase of vehicles on the road since the original explosion of growth in the 1960’s. More people today can afford cars. With more vehicles driving on a road system that was designed in the 1950’s and 1960’s, traffic jams are more common place, this in turn increases fuel consumption. In a study done in Germany this was proven. “On the road sections covered by the NGSIM data, we found that traffic congestion typically lead to an increase of fuel consumption of the order of 80% while the travelling time has increased by a factor of up to 4. We conclude that the influence of congestions on fuel consumption is distinctly lower than that on travel time.” (Treiber, 2007) Increase fuel consumption creates a whole host of related issues. Air Quality is affected, Greenhouse gases are emitted, Noise pollution, the Ozone is depleted, and Water quality is affected (oil and particles run-off from roads into storm water drains. These feed into creeks and rivers, which eventually meet the sea.), also the Use of resources (such as metals, petroleum (for plastics and fuel) and other fossil fuels (e.g. coal for production of electricity) are used. The USGBC Long Island Chapter was promoting a program called, Sustainable Transportation: Unclogging Long Island's Roadways The program was held in April of 2013 and discussed the negative impacts of transportation on Long Island and reviewed the potential benefits of several proposed transportation initiatives. I think Nassau County has been slow in adapting “Green” practices. Having been developed over 40 years ago, it has not been able to adjust to the newer “Greener” building practices as fast and it’s a good thing that population has stabilized, otherwise I think Nassau County would serious environmental issues on their hands. The stable population gives them time to adapt at a slower rate. Westbound rush-hour traffic on the Long Island Expressway is slow approaching Exit 44 after a vehicle overturned in the high-occupancy-vehicle lane and forced lane closures at about 6 a.m. (Jan. 23, 2013)