CHINA GONE GLOBAL (Part 1)

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  • One fith of global population, 9% of GDP, and 8% of global trade If we look at financial flows, China‘s role heavily skewed toward inward FDI and accumulation of FX reserves Outward FDI flows and portfolio investment (stocks, bonds) not really a heavyweight thus far
  • However, that‘s about to change: rapid growth in recent years, in particular since 2004 Annual flows well below 5bn, then 20bn in 2006, 50bn in 2008, and for 2010 we expect a number between 60-70bn By the end of 2009, China’s cumulative FDI abroad (stock)4 reached $245.75 billion

Transcript

  • 1. CHINA GONE GLOBAL Jack Garrity Executive Director Asia Society Washington May 10, 2011
  • 2. “ All political power comes from the barrel of a gun.”
  • 3. “ The economy is the basis for global power.”
  • 4. Can the United States have Guns and Butter too?
  • 5. US Still Out-Spends the Globe on Defense
  • 6. However Military Spending Has Risen Across the Globe
  • 7. China’s Booming Economy
  • 8. Population Overview
  • 9. China ‘ s GDP (1990-2010) 2010 GDP Growth Rate: 10.3
  • 10. China‘s GDP Growth (1990-2010)
  • 11. China‘s GDP Map 2010
  • 12. Economic Powerhouse-GDP
  • 13. China‘s GDP Compared to Other Countries (2000-2010)
  • 14. Output and Outlook 1820-2001 India, China and US
  • 15. Forecast of China’s and US GDP
  • 16. China’s real per-capita GDP(1980-2000)
  • 17. Rich- Poor Gap is Enlarging
  • 18. China‘s GDP/per capita (2000-2010)
  • 19. Gini Coefficients 1980-2006
  • 20. China’s household saving
  • 21. Hukou Household Registration
  • 22. China’s Living Standard is still low
    • China’s GDP per capita of $4,200 in 2010 was only 9 percent of that in US
    • China’s standard of living today is roughly comparable to that of :
    • Japan in 1954
    • Taiwan in 1972
    • South Korea in 1976
  • 23. When will China become the largest economy
  • 24. ECONOMIC CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES
  • 25. Major Structural Problems: Stability /Sustainability of Chinese Economy
  • 26. Unsustainable export level (Export over GDP ratio)
  • 27. Unsustainable Low Domestic Consumption (Household consumption over GDP ratio US vs China)
  • 28. Unsustainable Low Labor Income (Declining Labor income over GDP ratio
  • 29. Unsustainable High Saving Rate. (China VS the rest of the world, 1978-2006)
  • 30. Too much Enterprise and Government Savings
  • 31. The Share of Household Saving in National Saving has declined substantially
  • 32. Most government investment in China are Local Government Investments
  • 33. Local government are in deficit. Poor regions have higher deficit
  • 34. Is China’s real GDP growth sustainable ? Optimistic forecast versus official targets
  • 35. How much progress can we expect from the 12th 5 Year Plan
  • 36. The most challenging problems come from regional competition which has been essential for China’s growth
  • 37. The institutional foundation of regional competition
  • 38. Why regional competition is becoming a source of problems
  • 39. Non-Market policies would not work
  • 40. Market oriented policies may work
  • 41. GROWTH DRIVEN BY INVESTMENT AND TRADE
  • 42. CHINA’S FDI INFLOW
  • 43. Domestic Infrustructure Spending
    • Roads
    • Power
    • Ports
    • Airports
    • Apartment Blocks
  • 44. Railway Crossing| High-speed Network Lengths by Comparison
  • 45. Map of High Speed Railway
  • 46. Map of High Speed Railway (Planned)
  • 47. Will High Speed Railway Speeding Up Economic Growth?
    • It will spread economic development farther west, by slashing travel time between Chinese cities it will spur trade and ease the flow of people and ideas, its proponents and tourism industries are all tipped as big winners.
  • 48. Capital Growth
  • 49. Foreign Direct Investment into China
  • 50. Foreign Investment Spending
    • Factories
    • Manufactoring facilities
  • 51. China’s FDI inflow VS domestic investment Source: China National Bureau of Statistics $bn $3596bn $68bn $379bn $20bn
  • 52. Government Debt is Scrambling
  • 53. China’s Public Debt is More Than 80% of GDP
  • 54. CDB’s Foreign and Domestic Lending, 2005-2009
  • 55. Investment Contribution to GDP Growth
  • 56. Is China One of the Asia’s Flying Geese?
    • China’s low returns are getting lower.
    • China achieves about $2.20 in economic output per dollar invested, down from $3.40 in 1980. The United States gets almost $6.50.
    • (Indonesian efficiency surges after I.M.F.- led overhauls in the late 1990s. Every dollar invested produced $5 in output. Now $3)
    • China favored sectors like heavy industry and property, producing overcapacity and asset price bubbles. It means China needs more investment in its agricultural sector.
  • 57. Investors’ Complaints to China
    • Intellectual property rights protection
    • Directed lending by state banks to Chinese competitors
    • Indigenous innovation policy
    • Currency undervaluation capital control
    • Non-tariff barriers
    • Restrictions capital movement
  • 58. Intellectual property rights protection
  • 59. TRADE
  • 60. China’s Exports and Imports(2000-2010) China joins WTO in 2001
  • 61. Garment trade with EU http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704062604576105691622922576.html
  • 62. Garment trade with US
  • 63. China in the Global Economy, 2009 % share of the global total Sources: UNDP, NBS, UN Comtrade, SAFE, UNCTAD, IMF, World Bank, RHG; *China‘s share in global total as available from the IMF in November 2010, 101 countries
  • 64. China’s Production Surplus Production surplus
  • 65. World Trade 2010- Top 10 exporters Source: WTO data http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres11_e/pr628_e.htm
  • 66. China and Developing states Projected to keep a favorable trade balance
  • 67. China’s Rising Share of Global Trade $3,517 bn $15,518 bn $138 bn Surplus: $40 bn Surplus: $571 bn China: $3,122 bn
  • 68. U.S.’s Share of Global Trade 1990 vs. 2010 20% 26% $3,517 bn $15,518 bn Deficit: $ -82 bn Deficit: $ -529 bn
  • 69. China’s Global Trade by region 2000 VS 2010 $2,723.5 510.8 479.9 385.6 292.6 230.0 174.7 133.3 109.8 103.8 85.1 80.5 48.4 37.0 31.4 20.5 2010 —— 2000 —— China’s surplus 2243 16 4 11 13 6 7 10 15 9 3 6 4 6 3 5 times times times times times times times times times times times times times times times times $373.6 ($125.2) $143.0 $181.7 ($16.1) $210.7 ($22.7) ($25.3) ($6.3) ($25.3) $4.2 $34.6 $26.1 $7.4 $4.0 ($17.3)
  • 70. China ‘s Global Trade by Region 2010 In Billion
  • 71. China ‘s Global Trade 2000 VS 2010   2000   2010   Trade Exports Imports China's surplus/deficit   Trade Exports Imports China’s surplus/ deficit EU $71.9 $41.1 $30.8 $10.2   $479.9 $311.5 $168.4 $143.0 Russia and rest of Europe $12.3 $3.9 $8.5 ($4.6)   $85.1 $44.6 $40.4 $4.2 US $74.5 $52.2 $22.4 $29.8   $385.6 $283.7 $102.0 $181.7 Canada $6.9 $3.2 $3.8 $0.6   $37.0 $22.2 $14.8 $7.4 Africa $9.6 $4.2 $5.4 ($1.3)   $109.8 $51.7 $58.1 ($6.3) MENA $17.7 $7.1 $10.6 ($3.5)   $174.7 $76.0 $98.7 ($22.7) Northeast Asia $118.5 $53.5 $65.0 ($11.5)   $510.8 $192.8 $318.0 ($125.2) China HK, Macao $54.8 $45.2 $9.5 $35.7   $230.0 $220.3 $9.6 $210.7 ASEAN $39.5 $17.3 $22.2 ($4.8)   $292.6 $138.2 $154.3 ($16.1) Oceana $12.6 $6.6 $6.0 $0.7   $103.8 $39.3 $64.6 ($25.3) South Asia $5.7 $3.8 $1.9 $1.9   $80.5 $57.6 $23.0 $34.6 Central Asia/ Caucuses $1.8 $0.8 $1.1 ($0.3)   $31.4 $17.7 $13.7 $4.0 Central America/ Caribbean $4.1 $3.5 $0.6 $2.9   $48.4 $37.3 $11.2 $26.1 South America $8.4 $3.6 $4.8 ($1.2)   $133.3 $54.0 $79.3 ($25.3) Other countries and area $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0   $20.5 $1.6 $18.9 ($17.3)   Total $438.3 $245.8 $192.4 $53.4   $2,723.5 $1,548.6 $1,175.0 $373.6
  • 72. China’s Share of World Trade (Shadow Chart) 1990-2010
  • 73. China’s Share of World Total Exports
  • 74. China’s Share of World Total Exports Clear
  • 75. China’s Share of World Imports
  • 76. Exports: Comparison among US, Germany, Japan and China
  • 77. China's Top 10 Trade Partners in 2010 In billion USD
  • 78. Top 10 China's Imports in 2010 In billion USD
  • 79. Top 10 China's Exports 2010 In billion USD
  • 80. China is the NO.1 trading partner of six G-20 nations
  • 81. China is the NO. 2 trading partner of Canada, U.S, Indonesia, Mexico and Brazil
  • 82. As new powers grow…China is becoming ever more important to their trade.
  • 83. China’s Current Account and percentage of GDP
  • 84. China’s current account surplus
  • 85. Trade Remedy Measures on China’s Exports Value ($ billion)
  • 86. The Disappearing Cost Advantage
  • 87. Comparison of population in China, Indonesia and Brazil China is now Indonesia's biggest export market, having almost doubled its share in the past decade to about 12.5%.
  • 88. Population Matters
    • A Chinese slowdown is a risk.
    • Both brazil and Indonesia also have vibrant domestic sectors. Household consumption equated to 65% of Indonesia's gross domestic product last year, similar to brazil and well above china’s level of about 40%.
    • In brazil, mortgages outstanding equate to a mere 3% of GDP, compared with 72% in the U.S., and 18% in China.
    • Indonesia is set to reap a demographic dividend as its working-age population grows 21 million people by 2020. While china’s working population peaks this decade, creating a headwind thereafter. Brazil’s will peak in 2030.
  • 89. Aging Society
  • 90. RMB EXCHANGE RATE
  • 91. China’s currency has risen against the dollar recently, but against a broad basket of currencies it is basically flat.
  • 92. RMB against USD 2000-2010
  • 93. REER USD CNY
  • 94. CNY/ EUR/ JPY
  • 95. CNY/USD/JPY/EUR
  • 96. Big Mac index, CNY is the most under valued currency Source: McDonald’s; The Economist. At market exchange rate (2010 Oct 13th)
  • 97. The Yuan has strengthened against the dollar and euro over the past several years, leading some economists to say it is approaching fair value
  • 98. Does China Really Appreciate Their Currency
  • 99. U.S. imports from China may shrink, they may be replaced by imports from other emerging markets
  • 100. Yuan Internationalization
  • 101. L imiting the international use of the Yuan
    • China keeps a rein on capital moving into and out of the country.
    • The government sets the maximum rate banks can pay to depositors and the minimum they can charge for loans- a boon to the large state-owned banks because the rules give them a cheap source of savings and limit competition from private financial firms.
    • The managed exchange rate is frustrating Beijing’s commercial and political aspirations.
    • Surplus of foreign reserves is locked away in low-yield U.S. treasury securities instead of helping develop the country
    • The exchange rate has become a sort of burden on china. We are creating a lot of distortions in the economy to maintain it.
  • 102. Currency Change s will be Difficult
    • China now accelerating the appreciation of Yuan, now 6.49 = $1 – the lowest since 1990s
    • Letting the Yuan rise and fall freely on world markets could cause pain
    • Decrease in exports, job loss; Increase in imports
    • Remove restrictions on loan and deposit rates, as deposit rates below inflation transfers wealth from savers to borrowers
    • Major impact on entire financial system
  • 103. Currency Pros and Cons
    • Undervalued currency boosts trade surplus
    • Has led to huge increase in foreign reserves
    • Yuan prices of imported fuel and food increase
    • Domestic inflation rises – now 5.4%
    • Other countries upset at China’s “unfair” competition
  • 104. Volume of dollar-Yuan swaps traded increases
  • 105. Top 10 underwriters for offshore Yuan-denominated bonds
  • 106. FOREIGN RESERVES
  • 107. China’s foreign reserve holdings topped $3 trillion in March, nearly three times the holdings of Japan $1.15 trillion is U.S. treasury
  • 108. Foreign-exchange reserves keep rising
  • 109. The Consequence of High Foreign Reserves
    • China is the world’s largest foreign exchange holder, with reserves exceeding $3 trillion; three times that of Japan.
    • But these reserves do not give the government a good return, since they are largely invested in low-yield products.
    • Some analysts estimate yield could be 3 percent at best, while others argue that the real value of china’s reserves has eroded when exchange rates and inflation are taken into account.
    • Snowballing reserves add to inflation and are disadvantageous to China in international talks on its foreign exchange policies.
    • Should allow individuals and businesses to hold and manage more foreign reserves
  • 110. Internationalization of the Yuan
  • 111. Using Yuan in Trade Settlement?
  • 112. Criteria for being a dominant international reserve currency
  • 113. The expectation of Yuan’s rise may lead to change of business strategy
  • 114. INFLATION
  • 115. Inflation may lead China to start revaluing its currency
  • 116. China’s Consumer Prices
  • 117. Inflation facts
    • China’s annual inflation hit 5.3%
    • The increase in the amount and prices of imported bulk commodities played a major role in increasing China's imports and thus the quarterly trade deficit.
    • China's iron ore imports grew by 14.4 percent to 180 million tons in the first quarter. The average price rose by 59.5 percent year-on-year to $156.5 a ton.
    • The rising price of iron ore has stimulated domestic production. The quality of metallic minerals mined in China, in general, is lower than the imported ones.
    • Soybean imports dropped by 0.7 percent to 10.96 million tons, but its average price increased by 25.7 percent to $573.9 a ton.
    • China lifts banks’ reserve ratio to 21%, among the highest in the world.
  • 118. COMMODITIES A copper-products plant in Nantong, China: The metal bounced back from recent lows
  • 119. Commodity Prices may increase and Hamper Growth
  • 120. Metal prices go up
  • 121. China’s refined copper imports drop
  • 122. Copper reserves for selected countries
  • 123. Steel Market
  • 124. CHINA‘S DEMAND FOR ENERGY
  • 125. China’s power picture
  • 126. Typical urban household in China already has at least one air conditioners
  • 127. Electricity consumption has soared in China
  • 128. China is now the world Largest energy consumer
  • 129. Power Output Source: China Electricity Council Unit: billion KWh
  • 130. China and the US source their oil from different areas
  • 131. Shanghai trucker strike as the price of oil surges.
  • 132. In China, coal consumption has surged along with electricity consumption                                                               
  • 133. World Gold Reserves in 2010
  • 134. Gold Rush
    • The amount individual buyers purchase as an investment is expected to surge two-fold annually.
    • And the government's gold reserves are "far from enough", and should be increased to fend off global financial risks.
    • Since China deregulated its gold market in 2008 gold sales as a means of investment have surged, with an annual growth of 100 percent from 2007 to 2010, compared with 30 percent for the global investment market during that period.
    • Inflation and the weakening purchasing power of the yuan have driven up private demand for gold and this will continue.
    • China had more than $2.84 trillion in foreign exchange reserves by 2010, but only 1.7 percent were invested in gold.
    • The government needs to expand its share of gold in the foreign exchange reserves to reduce vulnerability to dollar depreciation. The reserve should be at least 5,000 tons.
    • In the first quarter, China overtook India to become the largest market for private gold sales.
  • 135. China has gone from the world’s largest coal exporter to the largest importer
  • 136. China’s nuclear
  • 137. LABOR FORCE ISSUES
  • 138. Guangdong Migrant Workers
  • 139. EDUCATION
  • 140. Graduate Employment Many college graduates are more willing to work in places where the cost of living is lower as a result slightly smaller cities in China begun to grow at a faster rate. Source: Chinese college graduates employment annual report
  • 141. World Class-Average math and science scores for 15-year-olds in 2009
  • 142. Chinese Travel
  • 143. More Chinese Travelling Abroad
    • The number of outbound travelers totaled more than 57 million in 2010,a rise of 20.4 percent year-on-year,
    • More than 57 million Chinese are expected to travel abroad this year, and will spend a staggering $55 billion, (China Tourism Academy). 
  • 144. Visitors from China spend more Parting with cash Visitors from China ranked among the top 11 in head count and they were No.7 in spending last year. International arrivals to the U.S. International visitor spending in the U.S. Rank In millions Rank In billions 20.0 13.4 3.9 3.4 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 $20.8 14.6 11.6 8.7 5.9 5.8 5.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  • 145. CHINA’S INVESTMENT OVERSEAS
  • 146. China’s overseas investment is surging
  • 147. China’s ODI is stepping up
  • 148. Outward Direct Investment: Flows and Stocks, 1981-2010 USD bn, BOP flow data
    • Source: PBoC, SAFE, RHG
    Stock: $245.75 billion
  • 149. China ODI flow 2003-2009, total $177.2 billion USD